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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Good point. I think there is also an unsaid point of the average global temperature is +0.3 to +0.4 right now
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    SPC colors of light Green, Yellow are too close to the blue-feel of melting arctic ice/methane. Maybe warmer colors be better?
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This severe stuff drives me crazy. It's always Slight or MRGL Risk. UGH! Remember when thunderstorms were so rich?
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    You may be right. The whole Global pattern supports Weak El Nino right now. I've seen it evolve many times, and a developing Weak El Nino in June-July rarely wanes before the next year. Things have cooled off short term. The subsurface is impressive, especially since the cold pool in trend is peaking. Nino 3.4 will be +0.5 to +0.7 in 4-6 weeks is my guess.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I researched things some 10 years ago with real data points correlations in a 1948-2007 dataset, and found tremendous correlation to subsurface ENSO anomalies and North Pacific pattern. The correlation was stronger than any surface El NIno/Nina, MJO, OLR, SST trend/difference. This cold pool is happening as the North Pacific +PNA is waning. Not a coincidence.
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    El Nino signal in the North Pacific
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The blue looks good. I'm curious, do you get any towering cumulus there? It's a nice day out here today.. towering cumulus
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I know this point has been run into the ground, but this will be a very +NAO May. global harmonic signal.. by Aug-Oct 2-month mean Apr-May +NAO
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The rate of warming now, it will at least be Weak for a time. We would need a pretty significant global pattern change for it to not at least go Weak El Nino for some time. The May 19 map is better..
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    May 1991 is a good analog to this wet pattern.
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    They will probably extend the Marginal to the area tomorrow.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    lol good call
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Some really classic El Nino looks setting up in the North Pacific on long term models now
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The North Pacific right now is totally El Nino. You dont see this in La Nina really ever (Ive been watching since 2001). Nice to have these waves while still in longer wavelength season of a new event
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    pretty substantial.. I bet it verifies
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    A few analogs to wet May.. 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959 1987, 1991x2, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2012 A lot of hurricanes off the SE coast a few months later.
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Some things on this forum are rather threatening
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Clouds were cool. It was a heavy energy day, similar to before 2016. But it was just a peak (look).. something is trying hard to make a point. That means it's something else
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Who is Cobalt? Do you think that's rain?
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This period stormy has +correlation with next Winter -NAO and general El Nino (I'll post images when computer arrives)
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    wierd ****ing orientation. Another day of this. It was good earlier.
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Wow, what a nice day. Forget the SPC, yesterday there was no chance for severe storms. Today it's really high.
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The stuff in western Canada, so cool right?
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
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