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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Precip is way above average around 30N. As long as that persists, that part of PDO should be warm.
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Subsurface is making a comeback, which increases Weak El Nino chances because of yearly trend (I'm impressed by this, re: subsurface +burst).
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Nothing really in sight thunderstorm wise, drier pattern under the ridge and the flow remains SE off the Atlantic
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I doubt anything that measures sea ice depth/mass would have reversed after 2016.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Weak Subsurface.. ENSO Neutral, maybe some cold pushes in the Fall I think with this global pattern (2016-2018 La Nina, 2007-2018 La Nina)
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    El Nino is fading.. get ready for a spike in hurricane activity. 12-13 before, now 14-16 I think. Hadley Cells are really far north so look for SE, US possible hits.
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    El Nino prospects are fading.. looks like another -PNA Winter.
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Denver makes it to like 602dm at 500mb on the 0z GFS
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Subsurface is becoming weak in the central/west.. ENSO Neutral is my call. Winter more likely -PNA now I think.
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I think it's starting to shift away from El Nino.. PDO is getting super negative and subsurface is not rewarming back west.
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Do you really think 7th right now? It's kind of a fancy number by the way. What are the clouds like where you are?
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Negative PDO is really becoming a thing. Maybe +Neutral/Weak Nino max. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html#picture
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    As far as sensible weather goes, this year can't be anything but number 1.
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I'm not sure of this data.. NASA I think shows something different.
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Global yearly cycle is consistent though.. I'd be less certain about analogs pre-1920s
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    >1*c rise from March-June (not >1 March).. 2009, 1997. It's 6/7 going into reverse ENSO 2009 is a good analog as far as the 1948-2018 dataset goes
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Global pattern change coming in 6-7 days per models, I think it will accelerate ice melt to near record levels through July (I can already feel it)
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    If you factor in the exponential increase of ice loss in time it's a nonpoint I guess. This is more saying we are leveling up global warmth/overall melt, in a few days.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    There is near record Hadley Cell expansion coming up in a pattern change in 6-7 days. Would favor arctic melt down the line I think.
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Slight risk is a nice surprise. It's so damn "wet"
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Surface is much warmer than upper levels right now in the Northern Hemisphere. Low at 500mb could be very warm at the surface in certain places.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This would actually be an impressive melt pattern for the arctic if it verifies http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html Beyond there, there is guidance for +Jul-Aug. Big melt season I think Also, today seems to be a switch from less favorable to favorable.
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jun2018/ensodisc.pdf
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    healthy - forming from the center
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Moving into Weak El Nino territory now. You guys are probably right about Weak to Moderate El Nino.
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