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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Clouds are cool. Billions of suspended water crystals. I wonder if fluffy clouds happen for everyone, looking through my parents old pictures there is none of it. It was in my life all the time 1987-2005~2008 range
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Have been visualizing this today with regards to the winter
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    We'll get close to a weak El Nino in a week or two. For the first time, warm anomalies outweigh cold in ENSO.
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    April 22- May 10 looks very +NAO. Since 2005, 4 years have been -NAO in this time, 2 were La Nina Summer's, 2 were Neutral... 2 years were +NAO, 1 was El Nino, 1 was Neutral. 2-2-0 / 0-1-1 . This is another argument toward El Nino
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I think that when this occurs (Pacific trough), there could be pretty serious short term surface warming, up to +0.3 or so
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    +NAO.. I think if the +NAO can hold, there will be some hurricane season hits
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The subsurface is hitting a wall just as the surface is evening out, too mathematical.. but models have a pretty +AAM pattern setting up which is sign of El Nino
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It gives the impression of an unwavering cap, moving toward the darkness...
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Central centering of subsurface warm pool. This is healthy and should make it to the eastern longitude by late May, probably associated with North Pacific trough and +PNA pattern last week of May. Next 2 weeks, weak -PNA probably.
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This is a good thread. Clouds are so different now. I remember large cumulonimbus in the 1990s here in Maryland. Even on Sunny Sunday's it was a sky full of fluffy cumulus 80% of the time. Now it's these wispy clouds, saturated raindroplets. Someone said the earth has more water/ice now, but I think there is less rainfall.
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Not really close. For the eye to pick up 50-200 unique strands on a single bolt is pretty incredible imo. If you want to talk, these are just averages. The real story is the temporary balance (in high-low pressure?) the storm caused.
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Most powerful storm of my lifetime happened last year and I actually got struck by lightning. 20-50 branches of real lightning was striking every 1-2 seconds. Multiple pulses, dark swirling clouds, all. Besides that, the climate for severe weather has really changed in this area since the early 2000s. For example, it's almost May and there hasn't been a storm and it really hasn't been close. It has been a cold pattern but where are the cumulus clouds? In the 1990s it was also much different.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Neutral
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Models bring back -PNA in Pacific now. You don't see this in new developing El Nino's
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Definitely El Nino, subsurface is leading indicator
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It will probably be an above average temperature Summer.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I remember someone said the Kelvin wave during La Nina as strong as preceded rises to at least +Neutral even though the net effect was a cooler, more La Nina-like subsurface. And a monster -PNA for a few weeks. I thought this was interesting because it verified, the subsurface warming in the east is movement from that Kelvin Wave. It happened before the La Nina peaked is my point.
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I always always make the point that the subsurface is a better indicator than the surface. This is yet another example of it. The Northern Hemisphere is transitioning to El Nino now, with the subsurface Ninoish and the surface not. Subsurface is +3 in El Nino-warm area, and Nino 3.4 is still negative
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Check out the progression of storm 4-20 to 4-23, very El Nino-ish
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    There is a pretty good signal of negative North Atlantic Tripole right now. Historically, the Spring is a great time to correlate Atlantic SSTs with hurricane season activity. 1969,1995, 1998, 2005, 2010 were the highest +NTA Spring's and the average #storms for these years is about 20. El Nino also looks like a sure things, so I'd go over/under on number named storms 12.
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I think it will be a basin wide El Nino. Right now it looks like Weak El Nino, but odds of Moderate aren't far behind. Very low chance for strong, ~5%
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yup, good call. I stated in the initial post 500mb was measurement for this, because that is the SST correlation.
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Subsurface is a good indicator in April/May 85% chance this crosses Weak El Nino threshold in the weeklies by the Summer
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