AfewUniversesBelowNormal

I wonder what's going with models? CPC has been continually above average precip in the 6-10 and 8-14 day for about 3 weeks. It's obviously going to stay dry for a while. West coast ridge really flexing on 12z GFS ensembles in 7-14 days, pretty new development since 2009, was a little bit weaker for the last month.

GFS very dry through the run... surprising. This should not be such a dry time normally.

PV is lower than 456 pretty far south. There is also a >100 gradient east and west. pretty rare

Can we turn off the pop ups please? Every new page load, and it's in the way of posting.

This is pretty cool

Regarding ENSO, I think SSTs are so warm right now we would default to +0.5c as the new average, especially in the Spring.

Not really possible. Can I have a job?

The way it's moving now, there is pretty much no way the La Nina holds. Peak season is not passed so there is still some time for a cold push, but subsurface and surface are all moving toward Neutral. Record warm Northern Hemisphere SSTs are the real thing, and I wonder if this will drive weak El Nino in the Spring. It seemed to work last year. Imagine these record SSTs and a developing real El Nino... The jump in certain statistics would be so large I wonder if it's even possible.

Ive noticed in this La Nina- Aleutian ridge/-PNA is overdone or completely wrong on models day7+. Arctic blocking is the strongest tendency right now, and these Pacific ridges get bunched up near Scandinavia/Bering Straight/Alaska. There is also a reverse wave of the North Pacific High, for whatever reason. But this is a cold pattern.

A few individual GFS ensemble members have had some nice snows pretty far south. There should be a few good shots, the Aleutian ridge models have is something that will change soon, default Nina programming or something, I've seen it before, it's a model glitch.

Negative AO will likely be stronger than modeled after January 15. Could be record breaking cold to finish out January, I'm not sure any type of -PNA can build against an arctic block right now.

How did you do in the heart of 13-14?

+Polar 10mb heights in December almost always correlates to -NAO/AO mid-January. Probably 80%. This is showing up nicely on GFS ensembles, and they didn't have it a few days ago. This will continue trending stronger, likely +400-+500dm at peak. Split into a 4-wave PV.

How are you doing? Is the blizzard kind of a warm wet snow?

It can get really really warm, overperforming long range models. Basically, something needed to break in this cold pattern and it didn't, and seemed to maybe strengthen. A lot of extra energy like you would see in El Nino's...

lol the roads are wet.

gravity waves... I bet closer to center of storm it is much different. like the antarctic or something.

Here goes..... I was trying to make money in 2010 to move on, but weird energy stuff started happening and I got real big. This was unexpected eventually by 2013 I met my obstacle to the money piece. So I had to go back home rebuild.... it was surprising the stocks would move against me more than my ability to make money, especially because there was no reason... I began predicting weather in spare time to make use of awesome pattern recognition ability and enhancing, and I think the wrong people got a hold of my December forecast because it has not been warm because of strange cold pattern. Now this storm is dry and there is a line going through Kansas to Canada...

I'd be interested in how Florida does snowwise.

Yeah, precip will likely fill in much more.

NAM is a weird model... GFS too dry for this storm. Something much different probably.

Does it feel like before a storm? The air is dry or sun hot or something.

This is pretty cool, check out Florida right now. https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_loop.php

It looks like were moving toward El Nino.

yeah there's real stuff going on lol