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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The warm up should really overperform. It will be fun to see where departures are at the end of the month. Northern Hemisphere isn't much different from Nov-Feb 13-14. Someone was saying DC's record 500mb max in February is 581dm.. models have 588 and AO is super negative
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's strengthening a little bit, a lot versus climatology for this time of year. In El Nino transition, it's usually a little different right now meaning this probably goes until April
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    160W is the point for the 200m warm anomalies to cross or not.. this is La Nina signature, and higher western thermocline is probably better forcing for North pacific ridge than cold east
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    That the Earth is in decline from one perspective Euro does it again 588 to DC. This time there is 594 off the SE coast so the model actually trended warmer
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Euro brings 588dm heights to DC in 6 days. It's so weird that these things are quiet, like ignoring them changes them
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Maybe the -PNA is overdone. It's been not able to hold all Fall and Winter. There is a big +mid latitude burst happening and this may just be a part of it
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yup. This is an energy map
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Feb 10-28 Stratosphere warming = March
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Feb 10-28 Stratosphere warming to March
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    You dont have frost?
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Not often do you see this https://ibb.co/juVKgH
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Nov-Feb 2017-2018 will finish the greatest +500mb in the Arctic Circle on record, significantly above number 2.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's really hard to get a drought here because we average like 4" per month. You would need something like 10/40 potentials to hit
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    ? Check out the images on NASA. Not only have 2015-2016-2017 been substantially warm but it looks like we will go ice free in 10 years just by following basic trend lines Also of note is arctic 500mb heights this Winter through Nov 1 - Feb 5 have been greater than any year since 2013, and substantially warmer than 2015-2016-2017 Winters. I would say just by going by basic probability there is a >50% chance that this Summer is the lowest arctic ice to date
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Have hope! Models are weird right now to build a SE ridge, there will probably be more low level cold air than expected
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    subsurface in a switch to El Nino is usually different by now.. it's backbuilding west meaning the 5-month ONI classification will likely be hit
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The era of really obvious long term model bias continues... They want to build a -AO I think because of MJO and Stratospheric warming, but it's not mathematical progression, and something intuitively else. My guess is it's different and this could change the outlook Day 7+ more than usual
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Pretty solid match to what's happening, PV establishing over Canada
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Average snowfall is 50-65%. We've had arctic blocking all winter. +PNA persistent through the Winter is our best pattern but everything in the northern hemisphere is +500mb. It's moved north 50-150 miles pretty quickly. Snowfall on the ground days is even lower. (I wrote NOAA a letter about this and all I got in response was a system-update on their end).
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The stuff here is impressive and makes me think this pattern change is favorable to above average Spring.
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yo the 18z gfs is not wet through the frames that count
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I've watched the GFS produce those maps all Winter, it's pretty simple that in the pattern it won't happen.
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yeah man. check out this drought
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yeah it would be unrealistic that there wouldn't be some snow with a +600 block over the arctic circle in mid Winter. It's really thin ice though with the NAO going so positive.
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    CPC long term outlooks really missing things right now... I don't understand it. this is a smiley face https://ibb.co/iWkOmb
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