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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    A below average cold season
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The +PNA is legit with ENSO subsurface right now.
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This is some pretty awesome cold for April. Wonder if it verifies.
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    NAO is being subborn now on medium term models (meaning no neg NAO). Stratosphere warmings are followed by 2 -NAO bursts. This could be a sign for long regime +NAO phase still..
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Don't want to upload because of image size, but these images are so cool
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    -PNA is just too strong on models. +500dm day 6. It's just really rare for this to go away
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    98-99, 99-00, 00-01. It's not too uncommon. 54-56 had a nice streak. 73-76 http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php I think a 3rd Nina year would be weird because of Global warming bias right now. 1 center El Nino event since 2010 in this exponentially warming climate?
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Don't expect it to go El Nino anytime soon.. subsurface for this late in the Winter may even support a Nina rebound in the Summer if it doesn't persist at the surface
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    10 or11 days away? Come on man. You're better than that. It has model agreement
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Storm potential March 6-8.. starting to look like -PNA may not be as modeled
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Since 2000, everytime we have had a strong -NAO block March 1-7, -NAO is through the rest of the month on a strong magnitude of at least +150dm at 500mb over Greenland for the March 8-31 period. 5/5
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    You'll love this one, Global warming is another way of saying dimension split.. we are on really really low end here. Almost to the point of not going back but not quite yet but we are heading that way
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Good morning February
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    backdoor fronts this far south on a 588 ridge in February
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The SST movement changes direction next few weeks. This is when you'll see it change or not, some people say a Kelvin wave like we had is a preceding mark. Those +subsurface in the western regions are impressive. I think it's strengthening versus climo is a strong signal for North Pacific -PNA, like we are seeing now. The whole pattern has shifted north 200 miles so you aren't going to see severe wx setups like early 2000s
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    GOES Satellite
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    What a happening in Texas in February!
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I mean, they've all but shut down this board. It's amazing to see the differences in 10 years and the energy is same!
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    -PNA on long range models is a signal that doesn't go away, it's so far southwest and strong. The models may be having feedback issues with -NAO picking up a blocking signal that's really over the Pacific. Stratosphere warming downwelled to -NAO could happen and probably will, but much later than models have right now at 168-240hrs
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Northern Hemisphere pattern to the Pole is really ripe right now. Nice flow of waves, in balance with good things I think. This means the 7-14 day period could be more organic with higher snow chances. There is nice oversight right now http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    CPCs subsurface were substantially more Nina last month, TAO/Triton this is most extreme of event now. imo TAO is better
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Are you sure about this? Many times the Atlantic pattern has not switched although it was on long term models going into March. NAO has been positive every day since Dec 1 and is most positive now. The blocking could occur, but it would be over Europe the arctic or something
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I don't know much about the QBO. QBO, MJO, AAM sound like new age terms. It was so cool to see precip patterns change when the SOI went negative Check out the NOI or SOI*
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