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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This cold will be hard to do again.
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's kind of it's signature though, GFS does well with S-N storms.
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    DT in 20 years...
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The devil lives in Texas.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I would think the highest snowfall potential of the whole North America is here. Georgia-SC-NC (I guess Florida, that would be cool.)
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Not much moisture. dont see that changing.
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Probably not a coincidence that there has been so much -EPO since 2013. The NAO has been positive something like 5 years in a row, but if you map 500mb heights, there is a spike positive anomaly over Greenland.
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Check it out on the west coast, another reflection of upper atmosphere.
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    You would have weak cold waves rotating around 500mb high, and will little force anywhere the natural tendency is for gulf moisture to be avaliable.
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This is going on at 10mb and -SOI
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Because why is a massive High pressure building in? Because there is a warm bubble in Canada at 10mb? The pattern has no support from blocking regions, NAO etc. It shouldn't reload 3-4 times.
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Stratosphere warming at 10mb is heavily correlated to negative NAO 2-4 weeks later, especially mid Winter. This is probably what happens as 10mb is very warm now. It's just really weird to see this time pass without southeast ridge, it's a balance of sorts.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Negative EPO has never lasted for more than one month at a time.. it always switches. Interesting to see long range models flip back to this now. Wonder what's happening? (It's tied into MJO and 40-day cycle things).
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I don't see any way to avoid a switch to warm. Surprised it isn't happening sooner.
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Does anyone think it is so strange that the SE ridge isn't popping up in a few days?
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Aleutian ridge establishes early on, could be a tough feature to move through February with La Nina. 10mb in Canada has been warm since Dec8. This looks to continue then shift on Jan1. Strong correlation to negative NAO 2-4 weeks later.
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It would be cool to see a larger sample size, and also time of year. My guess is NAO is very important for NYC, 2:1 to 3:1 for snow.
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Really impressive warm SSTA.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Why has State College had like 50% of average snowfall in the last 20 years?
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's good to clarify. I'm loosely referring to NAO as 500mb anomaly over Greenland and Iceland. Officially, it's SLP difference, Azores/Iceland.
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Really nice and anomalous -NAO happening now! (Conditions around the rest of the Northern Hemisphere do not favor this - and the NAO is quite negative!) This is, once again, a big indicator for the upcoming 3 months.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Classic -NAO now Super -NAO upcoming
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Legitimate -NAO November - Dec/Feb correlation is something like 65%
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I'm referring mostly to NAO and flow at the northern latitudes.
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Another note is that the La Nina in Pacific is setting up more east-based, or subsurface based vs surface. Now with a +500dm+ block in the North Pacific in the next few days, it's starting to move in the direction of more favorable Winter pattern (cold), -NAO/-AO long term pattern Winter. 95-96 is a decent analog.
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