andyhb

The more problematic event might be early next week with a very favorable 500 mb pattern for a larger scale severe episode across the S US showing up on the ensembles. Going to hinge on how much moisture return can take place since there could be a FROPA or two through the Gulf prior to then, but that definitely looks to be something to watch especially since it may fall on Election Day.

Don't let the fact that Kansas beat Texas in football distract you from the fact that Michael was a Cat 2 at landfall.

That is quite a robust shortwave trough passing through the northern portion of the sub forum tomorrow. Storms will be flying with very strong wind fields in place.

10% hatched tor added for the ND-SD-MN junction. Dare I say the setup doesn't look too bad with plenty of low level moisture and backing surface winds in this vicinity. Issue may be tendency for HP transition given the lack of flow aloft and also 0-1 km shear magnitude isn't ideal especially if storms fire earlier on. Addendum: Man is it hard to analyze setups in a season like this, motivation is at an all time low personally.

Thanks guys, and yeah I'm starting to think me joining seven years ago was the catalyst for the severe seasons going downhill in a hurry lol.

Well that red colour looks nice. Unfortunately the severe season still does not.

Hey all, figured I'd drop my first post in here as a red tagger. ...now can we get an actual setup to talk about (who am I kidding, it's 2018 still)

Not very much shear this far south, more liable to be multicells with some hail given the steep mid level lapse rates.

18z 3 km NAM had a number of long tracking semi discrete cells across much of the Northeast, including a very strong one crossing the entirety of NH and VT. Difference this time compared to most NE setups is that we have the thermos, especially the thermos aloft, in place almost unquestionably (barring convection tonight). If those surface winds can take more of a SSW (or even SW) component tomorrow afternoon, there's liable to be tornado problems given the degree of low level instability and moisture along with very strong deep layer shear for bowing segments and supercells. It would be nice to perhaps have a bit more of a pronounced shortwave, but I'm rather impressed nonetheless.

That EML for tomorrow looks absolutely nasty. You''re all getting better severe than I got on my Plains trip lol.

HREF is going pretty nuts tomorrow across the northeast, albeit convection from today is certainly a factor. Certainly don't see lapse rates that close to dry adiabatic this far east very often at all, and when they are juxtaposed with rather strong shear -> higher end severe possible.

Lol @ not being able to get 40 kts of flow at 500 mb in f*cking May.

I can sense the annoyance/boredom both in that and even in the SPC outlooks recently.

This year is very much reminding me of those insanely quiet periods between 1985 and 1988 where flow across the US just generally died in peak season. Poleward displaced Pacific jet is the main culprit of this, and that doesn't look to change anytime soon.

l'll take an order of the 12z Euro kplzthxbai. Out there from the 9th to the 14th.

Because the current run is the one that is running right now, not the displayed one necessarily. Since Wednesday is not in range yet, it defaults to the previous run when you try to display the data for that particular day.

The Euro data comes out from ~12:45 to 2 PM CDT during daylight savings. There's no way that site would have the 12z run in that far already.

....what are you talking about? That's the 00z run. Look: FH 168 hrs. 168 from last night's run was Thursday 00z. FH 156 from the 12z run today will be Thursday 00z.

00z Euro presents quite a volatile looking setup near/E of I-35 in OK at 168 hrs. Secondary vort max rotates around the base of the synoptic scale trough and leads to a south-southwesterly/southerly LLJ surge underneath strong WSW 500 mb flow and plenty of low level moisture (if you're thinking this sounds a lot like the setups in the second half of May in 2013, you'd be right). As a result, the level of turning with height is quite impressive.

One main thing that really leans me away from the "oh no the season is over" scenario (beyond the fact that it isn't May yet) is the persistent troughing showing up across the Bering Sea and Alaska in the mid range guidance. There is a fairly strong Pacific jet with that. With the lack of a death ridge signal (more of just a knell in the flow over the next week and a half), one would think that some degree of equatorward amplification will take place in the west given this large scale setup. That cutoff/closed low off the SW coast, provided it does eventually get picked up and doesn't retrograde, could serve to clear the way for that eventual amplification.

Lol everyone is kind of watching time go by and seeing the uncertainty/anxiousness rise. This is nothing new. There is no need to be bullheaded about it either.

With a pitiful pattern it looks like heading towards May I might add. Upper flow over the CONUS dies with the unfavorable +dAAM/dt tendency. A lot of bad in the CPC analogs too with 2006 and 1987 showing up at/near the top (easily two of the worst Mays for chasing).

On the other hand, the CMC and UK have basically nothing because they aren't nearly as amplified with Friday's trough. Thing more or less just slides through the large scale flow as opposed to really digging.

GFS was definitely more promising than the 00z run though.

I'm pretty impressed with the overall synoptics with this system (especially the strong LLJ throughout the afternoon), looks like a fairly prototypical earlier season High Plains event. Also a strong LLJ like that will help counteract any negative effects the ongoing drought might have on moisture return. Need that lead system to both help recover the Gulf sufficiently after the FROPA this weekend but also stay a bit less amplified so as to not suppress the cyclogenesis/warm sector behind it.