SnowGoose69

And as I said days ago, models corrected colder in the Friday to Monday window after they torched things for awhile. It may not be brutally cold but no question seeing ATL go from a high on models 3 days ago Friday of 68 to probably a 2am high now before the wedge of 55 is quite a change

The follow up as the wave ejects behind it might. The first part I think is done. The models have had issues for weeks now overdoing the SE ridge day 5-9 or so and then they correct back to a colder idea though not as cold as they showed 10 days or more out. The last 2-3 model cycles now have massively sped up the progression of the Arctic boundary in the southeast US Friday through Sunday when 2 days ago the Euro and CMC wanted no part of it getting south of Arkansas or west Tennessee

There’s no doubt models are finally reaching a consensus now on the timing of the boundary coming through the SE. the Euro and CMC are the latest but at least the models as a whole now are at least within a day of another and not 5 days

I think those areas missed banding in north queens and NYC. Central Park ended up at 4.5

How’s this for a strange range. 5.6 at Newark 4.2 at LaGuardia 6.5 at JFK

Yeah that HRRR run is pretty nuts. It’s crazy how the NAM really hates that event still though it has come south and is juicier than it was

It’s been like that now seemingly for days though I think the last night’s Canadian ensemble sort of did agree with the Op on being torchy but that was only run that did

It’s one of those events I think where if there is any UHI impact they will be low. I’m sure people just outside of LGA and JFK have more in their backyards than that

JFK and LGA both 2.2, EWR 4.0, NYC 3.0

The CMC and CMC ensemble at 160 is glaringly different too. It’s odd that the only Op run consistently pushing the cold air east is the GFS but all the ensembles are doing it

I just toggled between the CMC op run at 150-156 at 500mb and GEPS at the same time.. it has to be the most ridiculous difference between an Op run and an ensemble inside Day 8 that I’ve ever seen

The CMC has had back to back Op runs now where for like 5 straight days it’s 10 in Memphis with ice and 75 in Birmingham. I don’t buy that an Arctic boundary is going to get held up that long. Even the 00Z Op Euro of having a straight up north to south gradient pattern made more sense. The GFS is pretty much worlds different than both the others and it’s been winning those wars almost all winter

Honestly it seems many of the NYC TV Mets had some sort of scandal. Cimino, Dannon, the woman who lied about being assaulted, Evans, it’s a long list, Mr. G somehow has escaped unscathed for 45 years

It’s more that the shortwave is absurdly strong down south. The NAM would indicate that even if this ticked 40 miles more west this thing could be wrapped enough that areas that mix or change to rain but still have the low track just east of them could flip back to very heavy snow for a period of 2-3 hours

Yeah I think so. I don’t see it coming tremendously west. I can argue for it coming west but it’s going to be hard to get this thing tucked in I think

Even the 12Z GEFS wasn’t that slow. I expect the EPS won’t be anywhere near as warm next Wednesday to Saturday as that Op Euro was

I think what’s happening is models are simply underplaying the SE ridge at day 7 and beyond as they have now for several winters, then they’re correcting but due to the -NAO the correction is being overdone

Doing the long range stuff down in the SE has pissed me off the last week. The GFS had a low of 9 in Atlanta this coming Sunday morning now we’re about 25° warmer. The tendency that we’ve been seeing is that at about day 7 to 10 the models have been verifying too cold in the SE but then they often windshield wiper and go too warm in the 4-7 day range. Places like South Carolina and Georgia the models went way too warm for tomorrow through Monday on their over correction. Those places will be wedged on Monday now. I’ve seen forecasts for ATL and GSP in the last 10 days for Monday 2/8 go from highs of 35 to 65 back to 48

The old DT theory is always watch QPF for very fast moving systems drop in the final 24-36 hours

It’s funny how the GFS has probably been the most consistently west model the last 48 hours. I think because the setup is rather simple in a fast flow is allowing it to grasp things better. Normally the GFS is horrible with anything resembling a Miller A

So now we know the Euro will miss. It always does the opposite of the UKMET now

The EPS members are either big hits or nearly total misses. There aren’t really any minor events in there. The hits have widespread 6 plus areas

Roughly 19 ECMWF ensembles members are hits. 3-4 are actually so far west they are wet for the coast. The other 25-28 are more or less misses or nothing notable. It seems more or less the ensembles are going big or going nothing at all. The 19 hits more or less show 6 inch plus events. That’s ALOT of more or lesses by me

Yeah I would say the UKMET is somewhere between the GGEM and the GFS. It’s a miss down here for sure. Probably not entirely up in SNE

The UKMET might be more like the CMC. I don’t have specific graphics yet but the 72-96 positions suggest a near miss to me