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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    15.3 seems off to me. They had 5.3 as of 7am...I don't know if that was 5.3 total or 3.3 today and 2.0 yesterday. They had only .55 liquid 12-18Z so unlikely they could get 10 inches out of that, nevermind 8
  2. SnowGoose69
    Thanks....I could not figure out why EWR was 2 inches too low from there 4 group of 4/015
  3. SnowGoose69
    5pm climate reports as of 430. EWR 13.0, LGA, 10.7, JFK 10.1, ISP 9.6, NYC does not measure again til 7.
  4. SnowGoose69
    83 I think had a much better air mass in place, 09 was pretty meh...both events the TSSN corridor was pretty much at the back edge where the 650-850 erly jet speed dropped off. In 83 that was NNJ and NYC, 09 it was SW NJ...today it should have been in the area bounded by ABE/TTN/FWN roughly.
  5. SnowGoose69
    Might need to see 00Z soundings to see how widespread warmth is...I cannot get any aircraft soundings today since there are practically no flights into those 3 airports. No model showed 925 or 850 getting that far west til tonight if at all so its likely random little layers here or there at 750-875 that are 0.1 or 0.2C
  6. SnowGoose69
    Just seems strange that the 12/09 and 2.83 events which had pretty similar setups in regard to that insane easterly inflow had widespread TSSN and this one did not...those were more in the Miller A type category however (not sure 83 was a true Miller A but it was not a B). so might be more involved.
  7. SnowGoose69
    I believe the lack of thundersnow might be the result of milder ocean temps. The east flow in the 600-650 layer probably causing warmer temps, less instability than normal. This is a storm that 20-30 years ago would have almost certainly have had widespread TSSN.
  8. SnowGoose69
    How warm is LI Sound this year? So warm NYC is 32 and LGA 33 while JFK is 30!
  9. SnowGoose69
    EWR at 15 now...NYC is likely around 16-17
  10. SnowGoose69
    The sleet line made it further inland more west than it did east. Parents house in Merrick LI never went over but places in Brooklyn did
  11. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I don't get the sleet....I said we might see a dry slot today but I felt any sleet risk was tonight once the precip was basically shutoff and 925 or 850s on LI went over 0C...the sleet now may just be rogue warm layers of like 0.2C somewhere
  12. SnowGoose69
    The 12Z Euro if you view 3 hour increments basically has current scenario nailed...showed 15-18z as crazy for the metro...18-21 as bad N NJ and SW then the CCB dies slowly 21-00Z over NNJ SRN NY and E PA...it does hint that Queens/Nassau might continue seeing bands try to redevelop and keep accumulations going but light
  13. SnowGoose69
    .22 at NYC last hour so they’re at least at 15.5. Problem is if they dry slot or go to sleet it’ll compact and they’ll end up with an inaccurate measurement at 7pm. That’s irrelevant in regards to the storm record since they wouldn’t get there anyway if that happens but it could still cause an erroneous storm total
  14. SnowGoose69
    Central Park 13.3 total. 11.3 today
  15. SnowGoose69
    The GFS is getting a better idea but it still keeps trying to pump the SE ridge at times while the CMC and Euro at the same time periods are flatter. It’s really bizarre to see the cold bias model do that but it’s had issues all winter trying to pump that SE ridge at times
  16. SnowGoose69
    Daily snow record for Central Park today is 9.8 from 1934, that will fall easily
  17. SnowGoose69
    Yeah it would take a mega band. Today’s daily total will be top 5-10 for sure too. Storm total was 5.3 as of 7am and daily total 3.3....since then they’ve had .45, .18 last hour alone. I would say they have a storm total of around 10.5-11 now and daily total of 8-9
  18. SnowGoose69
    The NYC ASOS reported .03 in 11 minutes to start the hour. That’s probably a 4 inch per hour rate if you assume we a tad better than 10:1 right now....bad math....3
  19. SnowGoose69
    The Euro caught this on most of its recent runs. The period from 05-10Z was going to be fairly quiet.
  20. SnowGoose69
    No. The system occludes as well as the flow aloft being almost entirely NNE off land at that stage with no Atlantic moisture influx. You also will have probably poisoned the mid levels with some milder temps leading to poor snow growth. Some isolated areas of accumulating snow will happen later tomorrow night and early Tuesday but over 1-2 inches additional accumulation won’t occur many places at all
  21. SnowGoose69
    It took forever to start snowing up here. There’s probably as much as 3-5 inches in southern Brooklyn and Staten Island too I’m sure
  22. SnowGoose69
    As of midnight JFK 0.7 LGA 1.2 NYC 2.0 EWR 2.2...the ratios based on the LEs were over 15:1
  23. SnowGoose69
    The dry slot will get close. All models sort of show that. At any given point late tonight and most of tomorrow NYC might only be 30-50 miles on a line north of the dry slot
  24. SnowGoose69
    All the parameters argue heaviest snow likely is in a corridor across north central Westchester-Rockland-northern Bergen and Passaic and west. Their positioning coupled with snow growth and being right near that -4C 850 isotherm tells me somewhere in that area gets 3-5 inches an hour for a time tomorrow
  25. SnowGoose69
    You can see that typical dry push now on radar....snow advancing further NE in NJ west of EWR with that usual struggle zone right near SI where that dry air funnels down from CT. Probably will see snow in FWN before it snows at LGA/JFK
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