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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I LOL'd at the insane area of 2-3 inch per hour rates on the 3kn NAM....given the general trends in recent storms its exactly where you want it 36-42 hours out if you're near NYC
  2. SnowGoose69
    At least at this range it has, inside of 36 though many of them have ticked back and ultimately verified a tad NW in the end of the models in the final 12 hours
  3. SnowGoose69
    The EPS through 54 is a tad more north with the precip than the Op
  4. SnowGoose69
    Timing is more logical on Euro now but at same time I agree with bluewave this thing is too suppressed
  5. SnowGoose69
    The UKIE has that same bizarre evolution the Euro has with the late arrival of the snow...its likely both are sort of killing the WAA and transferring energy to the new coastal..its only explanation I have why they both dont have precip til like 00Z or later and all other models are 12 hours earlier
  6. SnowGoose69
    The UKMET has that funky late start time like the Euro
  7. SnowGoose69
    The 700mb jet on the NAM is more NW than most other models...at this stage I would have to assume it is wrong given its an outlier and its beyond its best range. That axis of orientation of the 700 jet though is more favorable for areas NW of NYC
  8. SnowGoose69
    Its actually showing up on CIPS analogs fairly high up, or at least it was last night.
  9. SnowGoose69
    Coastal areas want the non NAM progression. The NAM is still more west and north, particularly as the system crosses through areas 24-36 hours before reaching the area. Coastal areas in these setups always want the main WAA precip to be approaching at an angle of 180-200 or so...if the setup is aligned so that its coming from more W-SW than that your system is tracking more west than you want and the main WAA is going to your NW.
  10. SnowGoose69
    Not so much....the Euro is simply less aggressive with speed of the shortwave and WAA strength so there is a big timing difference in start of the precip vs other models
  11. SnowGoose69
    Well 2/11/94 is one of the top analogs showing up and that was Baby PD2 to a degree or non roided PD2. This really does not resemble 2/11/94 or 2/16/03 though other than there being a big ass high over SE Canada. The vort/surface features are going to be much stronger than either. This is sort of 1/3rd Miler A, 1/3rd SWFE, 1/3rd Miller B as currently modeled. We've had many SWFEs with that broad progressive 500 trof moving from the Oh Valley to the East Coast, but generally the surface lows cut overhead or just west and we changeover. Those types of SWFEs though are often the ones that produce the biggest front end snows near the coast.
  12. SnowGoose69
    Not changed much. The Euro is still very slow relative to the other models though
  13. SnowGoose69
    No doubt but the NAM is so insanely far west with the track. It’s hard for me to believe the EPS would puke on itself this badly on that idea this close in. This setup probably goes to sleet or FZRA earlier than we think but I can’t imagine the track idea of the NAM is anywhere close to right
  14. SnowGoose69
    It’s not so much that. It’s just much further north and west with the setup overall. It’s probably out to lunch. The 06Z RGEM was well southeast of that. The mid level warmth might come in earlier than expected but I highly doubt the NAM’s idea of being so far west is correct
  15. SnowGoose69
    Yeah the CMC basically has tomorrow's storm sort of acting as a 50-50
  16. SnowGoose69
    Given the NAO the Canadian is probably too optimistic
  17. SnowGoose69
    I had said earlier, anytime you see the GFS seeing front end snows with a system at this range you can take it to the bank that barring some sort of huge synoptic setup change in the ensuing few days that it will happen. It usually has the coast as snow for 1 hour then over to rain.
  18. SnowGoose69
    I'm not too worried about ice issues for the metro despite the NE wind flow...there will likely be periodic FZRA til mid aftn tomorrow but even that is iffy. The air mass is pretty stale. I could easily see even with the NE wind the metro being 34-36 all day tomorrow anyway. We went above guidance today as it is
  19. SnowGoose69
    The high position and this system riding up from more directly S or SSW of us at the moment tells me there is potential for a decent front end snow of 4 inches plus even at the coast.
  20. SnowGoose69
    Alot can still change but whenever you see lousy res models like GFS at 90 plus hours showing event starting as snow, it IS gonna start as snow. Its too early right now to know if its 2 inches or 6 before the changeover but I'm confident it starts as snow
  21. SnowGoose69
    2/2/96
  22. SnowGoose69
    They got 5 in 3 hours if I remember right, 2-2-1 from 9am-12pm
  23. SnowGoose69
    Yeah some believe that, also came off what was like a 3 year long El Niño event which is why some argue despite it being a neutral ENSO we had an El Niño like wave train of storm activity. The 2/8 event was aided by a flukey mesoscale band that setup across southern parts of the NYC metro mostly impacting places like EWR, SI down across southern Bklyn/Queens. It was just north of the changeover line to FZRA/PL. I think tonight some places in S NJ and S PA see the same thing happen where a narrow area north of the mix line is hit hard by localized banding
  24. SnowGoose69
    Insane -EPO and a very large polar vortex. I think probably there was some degree of SSW that winter. The NAO was largely positive though while the AO was mostly negative all winter. 93-94 was fairly similar to 13-14 or 14-15 (I forget which one now lol). This event tonight is sort of a baby version of the February 8 94 event. The upper level pattern across the country is actually almost the same and the dynamics of the set up similar. Models also brought that 100 or more miles north inside 48 hours. That event appeared to be a DC and PHL snow storm up until the 00 runs on 2/7. The big difference is that event was multiple waves riding along the boundary where as this is just one so you’re not going to see 2 foot amounts like Cape Cod saw in that storm. It’s a much shorter duration event
  25. SnowGoose69
    UKMET also north but amounts are quite light
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