donsutherland1

About half the years in which Bismarck experienced extreme heat during the May 15-June 15 period went on to see one or more intense heatwaves in the Middle Atlantic region, including the New York City area.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and warm. Showers and thundershowers are possible. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 81° Philadelphia: 82° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and hot. In the Northern Plains, the temperature will likely reach 100° at Bismarck. Only 1934 saw earlier 100° temperatures on May 27, 28, and 30.

Showers and thundershowers will move through the region this evening. Some areas could pick up a significant rainfall. In the Northern Plains and southern Canada, record high temperatures were tied or set. Records included: Billings: 98° (old record: 92°, 1988) Bismarck: 98° (old record: 96°, 1988) Estevan, SK: 94° (old record: 91°, 1988) Fargo: 97° (tied record set in 1968) Great Falls: 93° (tied record set in 1988) Minot, ND: 98° (old record: 96°, 1988) Moose Jaw, SK: 95° (old record: 95°, 1988) ***broke old record by 0.3°C*** Regina, SK: 93° (old record: 93°, 1988) ***broke old record by 0.3°C*** Additional records are likely tomorrow. A piece of that warm air mass will be responsible for the arrival of summerlike heat this weekend. Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with additional showers and thundershowers as warmer air begins to push toward and then into the region. Hot weather will likely arrive for the weekend. The most intense heat will likely last into the middle of next week before a cooling trend commences. The first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through the first half of June. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +5.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.826 today. On June 1 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.086 (RMM). The May 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.075 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

It’s raining in Larchmont and Mamaroneck.

Unfortunately, until there is a desire on the part of Central Park’s conservatory to have accurate temperature record, which would require trimming of the trees, the summer high temperatures there will understate the actual warmth. Trees are trimmed on a regular basis in communities around overhead wires. The same could be done around the ASOS, but only if the Park wants an accurate climate record.

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly cloudy and warm. Showers and thundershowers are likely. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe. Heavy rain could occur in places that see round of thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 74° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 80° Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with additional showers and thundershowers. A warming trend will commence and it could turn hot near the end of the weekend or just afterward.

Tomorrow and Friday will be mainly cloudy with showers and thundershowers as warmer air begins to push toward and then into the region. It will likely become much warmer during the coming weekend. Hot weather could by the end of the weekend. The first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through the first half of June. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +9.91 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.537 today. On May 31 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.071 (RMM). The May 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.141 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

I suspect that there’s a programming issue. The meteogram I saw from the 6z GFS had mainly upper 80s in Central Park and lower 80s at JFK. The GEFS shows upper 80s/lower 90s at Central Park and middle 80s at JFK. I suspect that the GEFS is pretty close to what will happen, as the sea breeze should generally kick in during the afternoon in the upcoming pattern.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and warm. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 78° Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with showers and thundershowers. A warming trend will commence on Friday and it could turn hot near the end of the weekend or just afterward. By mid-June, New York City will likely have 5-7 days with a minimum temperature of 70° or above. The 1991-2020 average for June is 5.7 days. During the 1991-2020 period, the least was 0 days in 2009, while the most was 12 days in 2005 and 2010. 12 days is the record, which also occurred in 1943. Since records were first kept in 1869, there were 8 cases during which June saw 10 or more days with minimum temperatures of 70° or above. Four of those cases occurred in 2000 or later.

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and a bit cooler. Thursday could see showers and thundershowers as warmer air begins to push into the region. It will likely become much warmer during the coming weekend. Hot weather could arrive by early next week. The first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through the first half of June. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -1.34 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.358 today. On May 30 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.133 (RMM). The May 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.672 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Select June Monthly Records: New York City: Highest mean temperature: 76.2°, 1943 Lowest mean temperature: 64.5°, 1903 Most precipitation: 10.26", 2003 Least precipitation: 0.02", 1949 Newark: Highest mean temperature: 77.8°, 1994 Lowest mean temperature: 67.5°, 1958 Most precipitation: 10.50", 2003 Least precipitation: 0.07", 1949 Philadelphia: Highest mean temperature: 78.2°, 2010 Lowest mean temperature: 65.8°, 1903 Most precipitation: 10.56", 2013 Least precipitation: 0.11", 1949

Morning thoughts... Today will be variably cloudy and mild. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and even lower 80s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 80° Philadelphia: 78° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and mild. 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 72.0° Average temperature: 72.1° Average error: 1.5° Newark: Average daily forecast: 74.5° Average temperature: 74.8° Average error: 1.5° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 74.6° Average temperature: 74.2° Average error: 1.3°

May James rest in peace. He was a truly passionate winter weather lover. It’s a terrible tragedy that he passed so early in his life. He will be missed.

1966 had a 3-day heatwave and a 4-day heatwave in June.

Middle and upper 90s in June. 100-degree readings in July and August.

Clouds gave way to sunshine and temperatures rebounded into the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region today. Before then, for the third consecutive day, New York City's LaGuardia Airport tied its daily record low temperature. This morning's minimum temperature was 50°. That tied the record that was set in 1947 and tied in 1967. New York City finished with a May mean temperature of 62.9°. That was 0.3° below the 1991-2020 normal but 0.5° above the prior 1981-2010 normal. Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and milder. It will likely become much warmer during the coming weekend. Hot weather could arrive by early next week. The first 7-10 days of June could start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through at least the first 10 days of June. Overall, June looks to be warmer than normal. The Northeast will likely see temperatures average 1.5° above normal to 3.5° above normal. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -10.63 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.559 today. On May 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.698 (RMM). The May 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.366 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Clouds departed after mid-afternoon resulting in a mainly sunny remainder of the day. The temperature soared into the upper 60s. Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden where the roses burst into bloom this week.

1953 held many of the region’s record low maximum temperatures that were toppled yesterday.

Daily Record Low Maximum Temperatures for May 30: Albany: 48° (old record: 51°, 1953) Allentown: 51° (old record: 52°, 1953) Atlantic City: 54°(old record: 58°, 1953 and 1971) Baltimore: 57° (old record: 58°, 1915) Boston: 51° (tied record set in 1901) Bridgeport: 52° (old record: 58°, 1953) Farmingdale: 52° (old record: 59°, 2017) Glens Falls, NY: 53° (old record: 54°, 1984) Harrisburg: 56 (old record: 58°, 1915 and 1953) Hartford: 50° (old record: 55°, 1953) Islip: 52° (old record: 60°, 2017) Manchester: 51° (old record: 57°, 1968) Milton, MA: 46° (old record: 51°, 2017) Mount Pocono: 47° (old record: 53°, 1924) New Brunswick: 50° (old record: 58°, 1918 and 1938) New Haven: 53° (old record: 57°, 1953) New York City-JFK: 52° (old record: 57°, 1953) New York City-LGA: 52° (old record: 57°, 1953) New York City-NYC: 51° (old record: 55°, 1884) Newark: 53(tied record set in 1953) Norfolk: 61° (tied record set in 1930) Philadelphia: 53° (old record: 59°, 1918) Poughkeepsie: 50° (old record: 52°, 1953) Providence: 50° (old record: 53°, 1996) Scranton: 52°(tied record set in 1953) Sterling, VA: 57° (old record: 62°, 1971) Trenton: 51 (old record: 54°, 1915) Westfield, MA: 49° (old record: 60°, 1930 and 2017) Westhampton: 51° (old record: 58°, 2017) White Plains: 50° (old record: 56°, 1953) Wilmington, DE: 53° (old record: 62°, 1953 and 1971) Worcester: 47° (old record: 51°, 1996)

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA 2.2 2.6 3.0 1.5 0.3 -0.5 0.0 2.5 1.6

Central Park: 5 consecutive days Newark: 7 consecutive days

Morning thoughts... Today will become partly sunny and warmer. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 69° Newark: 74° Philadelphia: 73° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and still milder.

It’s doubtful. It had no impact on the stratosphere. There would also be a lab between the volcanic eruption and the spread of gases and ash in the atmosphere.

Last May was much cooler. This May would be warmer than normal against the 1981-2010 normals. My figure uses the updated 1991-2020 normals.

Through 8 pm, many locations in the region remained on track to set new daily record low maximum temperatures or tie existing records. High temperatures and daily record low maximum temperatures included: Albany: 48° (51°, 1953) Allentown: 51° (52°, 1953) Atlantic City: 54°(58°, 1953 and 1971) Baltimore: 57° (58°, 1915) Boston: 51° (51°, 1901) Bridgeport: 52° (58°, 1953) Farmingdale: 52° (59°, 2017) Harrisburg: 56 (58°, 1915 and 1953) Hartford: 50° (55°, 1953) Islip: 52° (60°, 2017) Mount Pocono: 47 (53°, 1924) New Haven: 53° (57°, 1953) New York City-JFK: 52° (57°, 1953) New York City-LGA: 52° (57°, 1953) New York City-NYC: 51° (55°, 1884) Newark: 53(53°, 1953) Philadelphia: 53° (59°, 1918) Poughkeepsie: 50° (52°, 1953) Providence: 50° (53°, 1996) Scranton: 52°(52°, 1953) Trenton: 51 (54°, 1915) Westhampton: 51° (58°, 2017) White Plains: 50° (56°, 1953) Wilmington, DE: 53° (62°, 1953 and 1971) Worcester: 47° (51°, 1996) If Central Park records a high temperature of 51°, that would be the coldest high temperature so late in the season. In addition, New York City's LaGuardia Airport recorded a low temperature of 48°. That tied the daily minimum temperature record set in 1940 and tied in 1949. Any rain and showers will end tomorrow morning. Afterward, it will remain mainly mostly cloudy. It will also become milder. It will likely become much warmer late in the week. The first 7-10 days of June could start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through at least the first 10 days of June. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -10.78 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.194 today. On May 28 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.369 (RMM). The May 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.175 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.9° (0.3° below normal).

I will soon be posting where things stand.