donsutherland1

The frontal system that produced scattered showers and thundershowers yesterday and today will move back toward the region tomorrow. As a result, some additional showers are likely. A warm September outcome remains on track. Despite a cooler than normal first 7-10 days (for example, the 9/1-7 anomaly was -2.5° in New York City and the 9/1-10 anomaly was -1.6° in New York City), September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region. The second half of the month could feature above to perhaps much above normal temperatures. As a result, 2021 is increasingly likely to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop. The SOI was +9.75 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.131 today. On September 14 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.022 (RMM). The September 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.897 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.8° (1.6° above normal).

Just as had been the case last year, the Slater model performed horribly. Had one taken the mean 2010-2020 decline from the date the model forecast was generated, one would have had a vastly better idea of minimum extent. That figure was 4.4 million square kilometers (JAXA). The SIA had an implied minimum of 5.15 million square kilometers. Now that Arctic sea ice extent has increased for 3 consecutive days, it is likely that the 9/12 figure of 4,612,915 square kilometers will be the 2021 minimum. That will be the highest minimum extent since 2014 when the minimum extent was 4,884,120 square kilometers. The last figure at or above 5 million square kilometers was more than a decade ago in 2009.

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy and cooler. Showers and perhaps thundershowers are possible in some areas. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 80° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 76.3°; 15-Year: 77.1° Newark: 30-Year: 77.8°; 15-Year: 78.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 79.0°; 15-Year: 79.7° Tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy.

A cold front will cross the region tonight with some showers and thundershowers. Its progression will slow resulting in a partly to mostly cloudy and cooler day tomorrow. Additional showers are possible in parts of the region. A warm September outcome remains on track. Despite a cooler than normal first 7-10 days (for example, the 9/1-7 anomaly was -2.5° in New York City and the 9/1-10 anomaly was -1.6° in New York City), September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region. The second half of the month could feature above to perhaps much above normal temperatures. As a result, 2021 is increasingly likely to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop. The SOI was +10.34 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.141 today. On September 13 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.898 (RMM). The September 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.603 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (1.8° above normal).

Accidentally posted in the climate change forum (when did the definition of climate change so drastically that this was there?): Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and very warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. An approaching cold front could trigger some late day or evening showers or thunderstorms. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 85° Newark: 89° Philadelphia: 89° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 76.6°; 15-Year: 77.1° Newark: 30-Year: 78.1°; 15-Year: 78.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 79.3°; 15-Year: 80.0° Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy and cooler. Some showers are possible.

Oops. It most definitely should not have been in the climate change forum.

EWR: 127 days (5/6-9/11/1966 and 5/11-9/16/1971) JFK: 97 days (6/5-9/11/1966) LGA: 112 days (5/21-9/11/1966 and 5/24-9/14/1981) NYC: 111 days (5/31-9/20/1882)

Mancin is using any rationale he can to protect fossil fuels.

Now Central Park’s trees have created a fairly large summer temperature divergence.

It isn't, because the first 80-degree day occurred on April 20, 1993.

Tomorrow will likely be the warmest day of the week in the Middle Atlantic region. Temperatures will push toward 90° in Philadelphia and the middle and upper 80s in New York City and Newark. A shower or thunderstorm is possible late in the day or at night as a weak cold front crosses the region. The latest ensemble guidance has backed off the development of a sustained PNA- near or just after mid-September. A sustained PNA- typically sees a higher frequency of large rainfall (1" or more daily precipitation) in and around the New York City area during September. The current AO+/PNA+ pattern favors more frequent but smaller precipitation events often resulting from frontal passages rather than organized systems. A warm September outcome remains on track. Despite a cooler than normal first 7-10 days (for example, the 9/1-7 anomaly was -2.5° in New York City and the 9/1-10 anomaly was -1.6° in New York City), September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region. The second half of the month could feature above to perhaps much above normal temperatures. As a result, 2021 is increasingly likely to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop. The SOI was +14.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.584 today. On September 12 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.603 (RMM). The September 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.417 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (1.8° above normal).

Breaking the status quo is very difficult. Those committed to it will fiercely resist necessary changes.

At present, that’s a concept with too many risks and unknowns to be viable. Thus, right now it’s an indirect way to avoid calling for rapid and sustained decarbonization.

That was the kind of extreme event that probably won’t recur for at least a few years.

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny. It will remain warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Central New Jersey southward will likely see readings in the middle and upper 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 79° Newark: 82° Philadelphia: 86° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 77.0°; 15-Year: 77.7° Newark: 30-Year: 78.5°; 15-Year: 79.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 79.7°; 15-Year: 80.2° Generally warmer than normal weather will continue through the week.

Unfortunately, it won’t take too much rain to trigger flooding.

You described what is honest skepticism. When the data came in, you adjusted accordingly.

Let’s hope it changes. Certainly, a lot can change in forecasts 2 weeks or longer.

Until the closing week of October, Alaska is generally colder than normal.

Actually through much of October.

At 7:30 pm, an area of showers and thunderstorms stretched from south of Rochester to north of Williamsport. That area was heading east-southeastward. As a result, parts of the region could see a shower or thunderstorm tonight. The potential exists for any storms to be quite strong. Sunshine will return tomorrow and it will be a bit cooler than tomorrow. The latest ensemble guidance has backed off the development of a sustained PNA- near or just after mid-September. A sustained PNA- typically sees a higher frequency of large rainfall (1" or more daily precipitation) in and around the New York City area during September. A warm September outcome remains on track. Despite a cooler than normal first 7-10 days (for example, the 9/1-7 anomaly was -2.5° in New York City and the 9/1-10 anomaly was -1.6° in New York City), September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region. The second half of the month could feature above to perhaps much above normal temperatures. As a result, 2021 is increasingly likely to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop. The SOI was +27.75 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.849 today. On September 11 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.417 (RMM). The September 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.303 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (1.8° above normal).

Back on August 12, 2011, Joe Bastardi wrote: Time will provide the answer. Over the next few decades, with the solar cycles and now the oceanic cycles changing towards states that favor cooling, there should be a drop in global temperatures as measured by objective satellite measurement, at least back to the levels they were in the 1970s, when we first started measuring them via an objective source. If temperatures warm despite these natural cycles, you carry the day. We won’t have to wait the full 20-30 year period. I believe we will have our answer before this decade is done. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/12/bastardi-science-and-reality-point-away-not-toward-co2-as-climate-driver/ Note: The underlining here and elsewhere in this commentary is mine. What happened? The "natural cycles" he counted on did not produce cooling. Instead, the warming continued. 2016 and 2020 were the warmest years on record. The 2010s were the warmest decade on record. So, did Bastardi concede? He did not. Instead, he shifted the goal posts to a position that is as close as can be to granting limitless time for the "cooling" to occur without his conceding. In other words, his implied promise from 2011 was discarded. Any defense he might have exerted that his position was one of skepticism not matter of belief has now been lost. In two tweets he posted today (September 13), he wrote: Has to be Water vapor causing lag in seasons as April/May getting colder due to more winter snows in NAMER. but Sept getting warmer due to warm SST displacement north and greater than average ridging over NAMER SST warming almost all NHEM. Matter of(long) time before snapback https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1437504285743398920?s=20 I am not very popular with some of my "global cooling"friends because I think they want to see it in their lifetime. Fact is the oceans are very slow to change and the stored heat, from whatever source, is not going to disappear in a couple of decades https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1437504566254313472?s=20 Put simply, 2011's "we will have our answer before this decade is done" gave way to "stored heat, from whatever source, is not going to disappear in a couple of decades." Bastardi should concede. He was wrong in his bet against science. He should acknowledge that "whatever source" is the enhanced greenhouse gas forcing produced from fossil fuel emissions. He should abandon the personal belief that has failed him and move to where the science currently is. It's not too late to do so. It's also the most honorable course available, assuming implied promises have meaning.

It’s estimated from satellite gravity measurements. Here’s a paper that explains, in part, about the process. More complex measurements take into consideration changes in ice, run-off, etc. https://escholarship.org/content/qt6jh183rg/qt6jh183rg.pdf

It is also good that the smoke isn’t as thick or the air quality as poor as it was during the summer.

Arctic sea ice extent fell further to 4.613 million square kilometers (JAXA). The last year with a higher minimum was 2014 when the minimum extent was 4.884 million square kilometers.