donsutherland1

The climate models project that the Southwest will experience hotter and drier summers, leading to more frequent and severe droughts. Last year’s historic summer in Phoenix was a “throw-forward” summer that provided a glimpse of the future. The newly-released climate normals are consistent with the climate modeling. Data for select cities is below: Denver: Change in summer temperature: +0.6°F Change in summer precipitation: -0.29” Change in annual 90°F days: +6.8 Change in annual 100°F days: +0.4 Las Vegas: Change in summer temperature: +1.4°F Change in summer precipitation: -0.07” (from 0.81” to 0.74”) Change in annual 100°F days: +4.3 Change in annual 110°F days: +2.0 Phoenix: Change in summer temperature: +0.6°F Change in summer precipitation: -0.21” (from 2.07” to 1.86”) Change in annual 100°F days: +1.7 Change in annual 110°F days: +2.3

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and cooler. Some locations could pick up showers, especially south of New York City. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 75° Philadelphia: 69° Tomorrow will be partly cloudy with high temperatures in the middle 70s. Out West, Phoenix will very likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature will likely reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Thursday period, which would tie or break daily records. The potential for even higher temperatures exists, as a 1 standard deviation increase from the modeled outcome would produce peak high temperatures around 118° at the height of the extreme heatwave. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Somewhat cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail tomorrow into the upcoming weekend. However, some warming is likely on Sunday and Monday. Out West, Phoenix will very likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Thursday period. This unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. Based on the accumulated data and latest guidance, the June 1-10 anomaly will likely average 5.5° to 6.5° above normal. Through 7 pm, the preliminary June 1-10 anomaly in New York City is 6.5° above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +1.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.434 today. On June 8 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.746 (RMM). The June 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.871 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. With Phoenix likely to reach 115° or above next week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).

JFK's Numbers: Summer: Highest average maximum temperature: 85.5°, 2010 Highest average minimum temperature: 69.2°, 2016 Highest average mean temperature: 77.2°, 2010 Monthly: Average monthly maximum temperature: 89.0°, July 2010 Average monthly minimum temperature: 72.5°, July 2010 and August 2016 Average monthly mean temperature: 80.7°, July 2010 Annual: Most 90° high temperatures: 32, 2010 Most 80° low temperatures: 2, 1999 and 2016 All-Time: Highest maximum temperature: 104°, July 3, 1966 Highest minimum temperature: 82°, July 6, 1999 and August 14, 2016 Earliest 90° high temperature: 90°, April 12, 1977 Latest 90° high temperature: 90°, October 8, 2007

On this date this date in 2008, LaGuardia Airport reached 100°. That was the New York City area's earliest 100° temperature on record.

Shortly after sunrise this morning:

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny and warm. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most places . Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 84° Newark: 87° Philadelphia: 85° Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and much cooler. Out West, Phoenix will likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Thursday period. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Under abundant sunshine, the temperature again rose to 90° or above in many parts of the region. For the first time this year, all three New York City stations (JFK, LGA, and NYC) reached 90° or above. The last time that occurred was August 27, 2020 when JFK reached 92°, LGA reached 94°, and NYC reached 90°. Last year, there were 10 days on which the temperature reached 90° at all three stations. Today's high temperatures included: Boston: 90° Hartford: 90° New York City-JFK: 91° New York City-LGA: 90° New York City-NYC: 90° Newark: 96° 90° Days for Select Cities (through June 9): Albany: 1 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days) Allentown: 5 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days) Baltimore: 7 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days) Boston: 7 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days) Bridgeport: 2 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days) Burlington: 4 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days) Harrisburg: 5 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days) Hartford: 7 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days) Islip: 2 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days) New York City-JFK: 3 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days) New York City-LGA: 5 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days) New York City-NYC: 4 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days) Newark: 9 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days) Philadelphia: 6 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days) Scranton: 5 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days) Washington, DC: 7 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days) New York City-Newark Average: 5 (2020: 22 days) ...Expected: 6 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Following the frontal passage this evening, it will become noticeably cooler. Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail into the upcoming weekend. Out West, Phoenix will likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Wednesday period. The last time that happened in June was June 25, 2017 when the thermometer reached 116°. There were five such days in June 2017. The historic average is 0.4 days per year in June. The 1991-20 average is 0.6 days. Typically, there is a reduced likelihood of additional 115° or warmer days in the July-September period following years where June registered one or more such days (69% of cases had no such days in June-September vs. 56% of cases where June saw no such heat/averages: 0.4 per year in July-August following a June with 115° heat vs. 0.6 per year in July-August following a June without such heat). However, climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. All of the July-August cases with 115° heat following such cases in June occurred 1970 or later and 38% have occurred 2010 or later. One also finds additional evidence in statistical analysis. The coefficient of determination between June and July-August 115° heat is 0.001 (meaning that there is virtually no correlation). However, when time is introduced, the coefficient of determination increases to 0.148. This reflects the impact of a warming climate on the frequency of extreme heat. Considering the combination of ongoing warming and the ongoing drought, it is likely that Phoenix will see additional 115° heat during the summer even if the temperature reaches 115° or above in June. More immediately, the unseasonable heat that will develop this weekend will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. Based on the accumulated data and latest guidance, the June 1-10 anomaly will likely average 5.5° to 6.5° above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -0.42 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.259 today. On June 7 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.870 (RMM). The June 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.954 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.0° (2.0° above normal).

A recurring issue I have raised in the past: I have recently started tracking this problem and will post the average daily error (30-day average). There is a persistent disconnect between the guidance and the posted current day forecast number. I am not sure what the problem is. As noted previously, I don't think the NWS forecast is the issue. Today's AFD states: Ahead of the front a warm and humid airmass remains in place.While temperatures will be near 90 degrees once again with dew points in the upper 60s to around 70, widespread heat indices in the mid 90s are not expected. I suspect that there is an issue that results in an inaccurate display (used broadly) of the entered numbers e.g., a "90" might be entered but the website result is quite a bit lower.

While parts of the region could see another 90° day today before the heat breaks, it is perhaps an opportune time to look at the New York City area's summer (June-August) records. New York City area refers to the three New York City stations (JFK, LGA, and NYC). Summer 2020 was the hottest summer on record in the New York City area in terms of the seasonal mean temperature. The records are below: Highest average maximum temperature: 87.3°, 1966 (NYC) Highest average minimum temperature: 72.1°, 2020 (LGA) Highest average mean temperature: 79.5°, 2020 (LGA) Monthly: Average monthly maximum temperature: 90.6°, July 2020 (LGA) Average monthly minimum temperature: 75.2°, July 2020 (LGA) Average monthly mean temperature: 82.9°, July 2020 (LGA) Annual: Most 90° high temperatures: 48, 2010 (LGA) Most 80° low temperatures: 7, 1908 (NYC), 2002 (LGA), 2020 (LGA) All-Time: Highest maximum temperature: 107°, July 3, 1966 (LGA) Highest minimum temperature: 86°, July 5, 1999 (LGA), August 2, 2006 (LGA), July 19, 2013 (LGA)

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly cloudy and very warm. Showers and thundershowers are likely as a cold front crosses the region. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle and upper 80s in much of the region. A few places could reach or exceed 90° . Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 89° Newark: 94° Philadelphia: 89° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and cooler. Additional showers are possible. Out West, Phoenix will likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Wednesday period. The last time that happened in June was 2017 when there were five such days. The historic average is 0.4 days per year in June. The 1991-20 average is 0.6 days. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan.

I don’t agree. The major greenhouse gas polluters (https://b8f65cb373b1b7b15feb-c70d8ead6ced550b4d987d7c03fcdd1d.ssl.cf3.rackcdn.com/cms/reports/documents/000/002/327/original/Carbon-Majors-Report-2017.pdf?1499691240) want to pass the blame for their scope 3 emissions (the majority of their emissions). This is their effort to deflect attention from their responsibility so as to be able to continue to profit from products that impose huge and growing externalities on the public whom they try to blame.

Temperatures again rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s in much of the region. Some strong thunderstorms moved through the area during the late afternoon and early evening. More high temperature records were tied or broken across northern New England, Quebec, and New Brunswick today. Records included: Baie-Comeau, QC: 85° (old record: 73°, 2017) Caribou: 92° (old record: 87°, 1974 and 2017) Edmunston, NB: 87° (old record: 84°, 2014) Fredericton, NB: 92° (old record: 91°, 2008) Gaspé, QC: 88° (old record: 84°, 1979) La Tuque, QC: 91° (old record: 88°, 2011) Miramichi, NB: 93° (old record: 88°, 2017) Moncton, NB: 91° (old record: 87°, 1950) Quebec City: 87° (tied record set in 2008) Sept-Îles, QC: 75°/24.0°C (old record: 75°/23.9°C, 1974) St. Stephen, NB: 93° (old record: 90°, 2008) Trois-Rivières, QC: 89° (old record: 87°, 2011) Two daily rainfall records were set today. Rainfall through 8 pm included: Newark: 2.19" (old record: 0.92", 1947) White Plains: 1.55" (old record: 1.19", 1992) Tomorrow will be another hot day. Afterward, it will become noticeably cooler. Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -18.98 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.372 today. On June 6 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.954 (RMM). The June 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.961 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal).

Yes. Both set new records with lows of 76 yesterday.

Morning thoughts... Today will be variably cloudy and very warm. Showers and thundershowers are likely. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle and upper 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 87° Newark: 91° Philadelphia: 89° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and still very warm. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely from a frontal passage.

Yes, that makes a difference.

The wind was out of the south off the ocean. That kept JFK cooler than places like LGA.

The air mass moved east-northeastward from the Northern Plains and southern Canada. The core of the heat passed to our north. In addition, there was some flow off the southwestern Atlantic and contributed to higher humidity for the New York Metro Area.

The hottest part of the air mass moved across New England. Boston also had a westerly component to its wind direction for much of the day.

At 10 pm, the temperature at Central Park was 82° and it was 80° at LaGuardia Airport. Both locations are on track to break their daily record high minimum temperatures. The current records are: Central Park: 73°, 1883 (New York City area record) LaGuardia Airport: 72°, 1968 and 1999 Both locations have had a daily minimum temperature of 76° so far. It should be noted that the 73° minimum temperature is the lowest New York City area record high minimum temperature for June. New York City area refers to JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and Central Park.

Yes, above. That’s a typo.

No, 81 is correct.

Summerlike warmth again toasted the Northeast. Numerous daily records were set in northern New England, New Brunswick and Quebec. High temperatures included: Albany: 90° Allentown: 92° Atlantic City: 91° Baltimore: 95° Bangor: 93° (old record: 90°, 1936) Boston: 96° Burlington: 96° (old record: 94°, 1999) Caribou: 92° (old record: 84°, 1991) Chibougamau, QC: 87° (old record: 83°, 1991) Concord, NH: 94° Georgetown, DE: 94° Edmunston, NB: 92° (old record: 81°, 2006) Fredericton, NB: 94° (old record: 86°, 1999) Gaspé, QC: 92° (old record: 85°, 1991) Harrisburg: 93° Hartford: 94° La Tuque, QC: 92° (old record: 89°, 2008) Manchester, NH: 95° Miramichi, NB: 94° (old record: 79°, 2017) Moncton, NB: 90° (old record: 83°,1999) Montreal: 89° New York City-LGA: 93° New York City-NYC: 91° Newark: 95° Philadelphia: 94° Plattsburgh: 93° (old record: 88°, 1959) Portland: 94° Poughkeepsie: 94° (tied record set in 2008) Providence: 91° Quebec City: 90° (old record: 85°, 2008) Rivière-du-Loup, QC: 87° (old record: 80°, 1995) Saguenay, QC: 93° (old record: 83°, 1974) Scranton: 90° Sherbrooke, QC: 87° (tied record set in 2008) St. Stephen, NB: 94° (old record: 81°, 2014) Sterling, VA: 91° Trenton: 91° Trois-Rivières, QC: 90° (old record: 84°, 2008) Val d'Or, QC: 89° (old record: 86°, 1955) Washington, DC: 90° Wilmington, DE: 91° 90° Days for Select Cities (through June 7): Albany: 1 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days) Allentown: 5 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days) Baltimore: 6 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days) Boston: 5 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days) Bridgeport: 2 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days) Burlington: 4 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days) Harrisburg: 5 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days) Hartford: 5 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days) Islip: 2 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days) New York City-JFK: 2 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days) New York City-LGA: 3 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days) New York City-NYC: 2 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days) Newark: 7 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days) Philadelphia: 6 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days) Scranton: 5 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days) Washington, DC: 7 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days) New York City-Newark Average: 4 (2020: 22 days) ...Expected: 4 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) The hot weather will likely last into the middle of the week before a cooling trend commences. Late this week and weekend could see cooler than normal conditions. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -18.98 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.539 today. On June 5 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.961 (RMM). The June 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.994 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.0° (2.0° above normal).

The point-and-click website has had real issues lately. Its forecast for Central Park is 81 (actual temperature: 86). This is a chronic issue with the site and it is inconsistent with the area forecast discussion.

At 10 am, the temperature at Caribou was 84°. That ties the daily record set in 1991. Widespread near record and record heat is likely across northern New England and Quebec.