donsutherland1

Morning thoughts… Western sections of the area will be mostly sunny while early clouds will give way to sunshine elsewhere in the region. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 79° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 85° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 85.1° Newark: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.0°; 15-Year: 87.5° Tomorrow will turn much warmer.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and somewhat cooler than normal. Afterward, a warmer regime will try to develop. Next week could see the potential of a heat wave in parts of the region. Above normal temperatures could persist toward mid-month. Next week could also see the development of a much above normal temperature regime in the Pacific Northwest. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was -10.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.196 today. The preliminary Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern figure was +3.210. That exceeded the August monthly record of +3.160, which was set on August 1, 2009. On August 2 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.295 (RMM). The August 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.390 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and cool. Showers and a period of rain are likely later today and tonight. Locations such as Islip, Providence, and Boston could reach or exceed 1.00” of rain. Temperatures will likely reach upper 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 77° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 85.2° Newark: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 87.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.0°; 15-Year: 87.6° Heat will likely return during the weekend.

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy. A developing system will head northward along a frontal system and bring a period of moderate to significant rain to parts of the region. The area of heaviest rain will likely extend across southern New Jersey and Long Island into the eastern half of New England. Generally somewhat below normal readings will persist into the weekend. Afterward, a much warmer pattern could develop for a time. The temperature could be pressing 90° during the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was +6.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.012 today. The preliminary Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern figure was +2.931. That smashed the daily record of +2.116, which was set in 2018. On August 1 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.394 (RMM). The July 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.327 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloudy and comfortable. Temperatures will likely reach upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 78° Newark: 82° Philadelphia: 80° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.6°; 15-Year: 85.3° Newark: 30-Year: 86.1°; 15-Year: 87.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.1°; 15-Year: 87.8° Heat will likely return during the weekend.

I don’t think any of them will reach 130. 125-126 is possible during the height of the heat wave.

Generally somewhat below normal readings will persist into the weekend. Afterward, a much warmer pattern could develop for a time. The temperature could be pressing 90° during the weekend. In the near-term the temperature will likely reach 110° or above in Phoenix for the first time since July 11. In southern Europe into the Middle East, an extreme heat wave will continue to scorch the region. Numerous areas in Greece, Turkey into the Middle East saw readings at or above 110°. Damman, Saudi Arabia reached 123°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was +4.92 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.762 today. On July 30 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.410 (RMM). The July 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.931 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny and comfortable. Temperatures will likely reach upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 79° Newark: 84° Philadelphia: 82° Heat will likely return next weekend.

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and somewhat warmer than today. The medium-range looks even warmer as temperatures could be pressing 90° during the next weekend. Overall, August will probably finish near normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Through much of July, the area of drought over northwestern North America has largely driven the upper air pattern. The MJO has played a much lesser role. Should that remain the case, much of August could see warm temperature anomalies in the western half of the United States, especially the northwestern U.S. and western Canada. The Northeast could see near normal or below normal readings. Since 1869, there were 9 cases where July saw 8.00" or more of rain. Only 1988 saw a much warmer than normal August (78.8° mean temperature). The remainder of that set of years saw mean temperatures below the 1991-20 August mean of 76.0°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was -1.58 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.762 today. On July 30 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.932 (RMM). The July 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.872 (RMM).

These are interesting papers and I look forward to reading them.

That model was blown out of the water so to speak last year with a forecast minimum extent near 4.48 million square km. https://www.arcus.org/files/sio/31109/ucolorado_nsidc_slater_barrett.pdf Last year's minimum extent was the second lowest on record at 3.555 million square kilometers (JAXA), or nearly 1 million square kilometers below the Slater Model forecast. If 2021 has a melt season that matches the slowest of the 2000-20 period, Arctic sea ice extent would fall to 4.891 million square kilometers. A melt comparable to the slowest 2010-2020 melt season would bring it to 4.420 million square kilometers. The median 2010-2020 melt would bring it to 4.236 million square kilometers. The ice is thin. At some point, it will almost seem as the bottom has fallen out when the thin ice melts away. I suspect we'll wind up with a minimum extent figure of 4.4 million square kilometers, but can't rule out a much larger drop in the end. The implied probability of a minimum extent figure of 5 million or more square kilometers is currently about 11%. The probability of the 5.15 million square kilometer minimum on the Slater Model is just under 8%. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Morning thoughts... Today will be variably cloudy and cool. Some showers are possible. Temperatures will likely the middle and upper 70s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 76° Newark: 80° Philadelphia: 75° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and a bit warmer. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.7°; 15-Year: 85.6° Newark: 30-Year: 86.3°; 15-Year: 87.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 88.0° 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 83.5° Average temperature: 83.0° Average error: 1.4° Newark: Average daily forecast: 88.0° Average temperature: 87.4° Average error: 1.5° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 87.4° Average temperature: 87.2° Average error: 1.6°

Sorry, I hadn’t seen this post. GaWx provided the numbers.

After an unseasonably cool start, temperatures rose into the upper 70s with a few lower 80s in parts of the region. New York City finished with a monthly mean temperature of 76.0°, which was 1.5° below normal (1991-20 baseline). A few record low temperatures were tied or broken: Albany: 49° (tied record set in 1978) Allentown: 50° (old record: 51°, 1936) Islip: 55° (tied record set in 2001) White Plains: 53° (old record: 55°, 1956) Tomorrow will be variably cloudy. There could be some showers. It will be unseasonably cool. The work week will start with somewhat warmer readings and a return to sunshine. Overall, August will probably finish near normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Through much of July, the area of drought over northwestern North America has largely driven the upper air pattern. The MJO has played a much lesser role. Should that remain the case, much of August could see warm temperature anomalies in the western half of the United States, especially the northwestern U.S. and western Canada. The Northeast could see near normal or below normal readings. Since 1869, there were 9 cases where July saw 8.00" or more of rain. Only 1988 saw a much warmer than normal August (78.8° mean temperature). The remainder of that set of years saw mean temperatures below the 1991-20 August mean of 76.0°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +7.02 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.711 today. On July 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.872 (RMM). The July 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.296 (RMM).

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.0 -0.7 -1.0 0.2 0.9 1.6

Morning thoughts… This morning, the temperature fell to 60° in New York City’s Central Park. That was the lowest July temperature since July 4 when the low was also 60° and the coolest temperature in the second half of July since July 24, 2007 when the mercury dipped to 58°. Overall, it was tied with 1891 and 1936 for the 4th lowest July 31 temperature. It will be mostly sunny and cool. Temperatures will likely reach upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 82° Philadelphia: 81° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.8°; 15-Year: 85.7° Newark: 30-Year: 86.4°; 15-Year: 87.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.4°; 15-Year: 88.2° Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend.

Fair but somewhat cooler than normal weather will prevail through the weekend. Tomorrow will be especially cool. Temperatures will likely start out in the 50s outside of New York City and rise only into the upper 70s in and around the City and possible lower 80s from central New Jersey southward. Through much of July, the area of drought over northwestern North America has largely driven the upper air pattern. The MJO has played a much lesser role. Should that remain the case, much of August could see warm temperature anomalies in the western half of the United States, especially the northwestern U.S. and western Canada. The Northeast could see near normal or below normal readings. Since 1869, there were 9 cases where July saw 8.00" or more of rain. Only 1988 saw a much warmer than normal August (78.8° mean temperature). The remainder of that set of years saw mean temperatures below the 1991-20 August mean of 76.0°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +13.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.713 today. On July 28 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.303 (RMM). The July 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.435 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (1.5° below normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny and pleasant. Temperatures will likely reach lower 80s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 82° Newark: 86° Philadelphia: 85° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.9°; 15-Year: 85.8° Newark: 30-Year: 86.5°; 15-Year: 87.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.4°; 15-Year: 88.3° Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend. Down south, many parts of the Gulf Coast, including New Orleans, Mobile, Greenville, and Pensacola, will likely see temperatures in the upper 90s and heat indices of 110° or above today and tomorrow.

Through 7:41 pm, New York City had picked up 0.43" of rain, bringing July's total to 11.05". That is third highest July figure on record. In the wake of tonight's rainfall, fair but somewhat cooler than normal weather will take hold and continue through the weekend. Saturday could be especially cool. Temperatures will likely start out in the 50s outside of New York City. Through much of July, the area of drought over northwestern North America has largely driven the upper air pattern. The MJO has played a much lesser role. Should that remain the case, much of August could see warm temperature anomalies in the western half of the United States, especially the northwestern U.S. and western Canada. The Northeast could see near normal or below normal readings. Since 1869, there were 9 cases where July saw 8.00" or more of rain. Only 1988 saw a much warmer than normal August (78.8° mean temperature). The remainder of that set of years saw mean temperatures below the 1991-20 August mean of 76.0°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +12.37 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.887 today. On July 27 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.434 (RMM). The July 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.299 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (1.4° below normal).

I think we’’ probably fall short of both numbers, unless there are training thunderstorms.

Morning thoughts… It will mostly cloudy today with showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain could be heavy. A general 0.50”-1.00” rainfall is likely with some locally higher amounts. Temperatures will likely reach mainly the upper 70s and lower 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 80° Philadelphia: 82° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.9°; 15-Year: 85.9° Newark: 30-Year: 86.6°; 15-Year: 87.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.5°; 15-Year: 88.4° Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend.

Showers and thundershowers are possible tomorrow. Some of the rain could be heavy. That will add to the 10.62" of rain that has already fallen at Central Park making July 2021 the 3rd wettest July on record. At present, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will go on to record 50.00" or more of precipitation this year. July will likely end with an unseasonable push of cool air. Temperatures Saturday morning will likely fall into the 50s outside New York City. Even as an unseasonably cool air mass pushes into parts of the Northeast, record-breaking heat could develop in northwestern Canada. That heat will likely persist through the upcoming weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +1.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.070 today. On July 26 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.290 (RMM). The July 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.205 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (1.4° below normal).

Morning thoughts… It will become partly to mostly sunny today. It will also be cooler than yesterday with high temperatures mainly in the lower and middle 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 82° Newark: 86° Philadelphia: 87° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 86.0° Newark: 30-Year: 86.6°; 15-Year: 88.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.6°; 15-Year: 88.5° Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend.

Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region today. 90° Days for Select Cities (through July 27): Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days) Allentown: 17 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days) Baltimore: 32 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days) Boston: 15 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days) Bridgeport: 8 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days) Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days) Harrisburg: 21 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days) Hartford: 16 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days) Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days) New York City-JFK: 6 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days) New York City-LGA: 17 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days) New York City-NYC: 12 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days) Newark: 27 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days) Philadelphia: 22 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days) Scranton: 12 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days) Washington, DC: 28 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days) New York City-Newark Average: 16 (2020: 22 days) ...Expected: 17 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Out West, record temperatures were reported in a number of locations. Records included: Billings: 106° (old record: 103°, 1935 and 1947) Casper: 100° (old record: 99°, 2008) Rapid City: 107° (old record: 104°, 1987) Meanwhile, from 4 pm - 5 pm MST, Tucson picked up 1.27" of rain. Through 5:20 pm MST, Tucson had picked up 1.29" of rain, bringing the monthly total to 7.08". That makes July 2021 the wettest July on record in Tucson. The old record was 6.80", which was set in 2017. July 2021 is also Tucson's second wettest month on record. A strong cold front will cross the region tonight the remainder of the month will be cooler than normal. Showers and thundershowers are possible tonight and again on Thursday. The month could end with an unseasonable push of cool air. Even as an unseasonably cool air mass pushes into parts of the Northeast, record-breaking heat could develop in northwestern Canada. That heat will likely persist through the upcoming weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +10.71 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.917 today. On July 25 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.186 (RMM). The July 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.199 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (1.2° below normal).

Yesterday was 90. It appears that JFK fell short today.