donsutherland1

Colder air will begin to return to the region for this weekend. Tomorrow could see some rain or snow showers as an Arctic cold front moves across the region. Saturday will be very cold despite ample sunshine. Temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 20s. After a dry weekend, a strong storm could bring snow changing to rain to much of the region. Details remain to be resolved. But a small accumulation of snow and sleet appears likely in Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. A moderate to significant snowfall is likely across central and upstate New York into central and northern New England. Western and Upstate New York into Quebec could see a significant snowfall. Eastern New England and much of Long Island will likely experience mostly or all rain. High winds could produce coastal flooding. January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will very likely be below normal. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks until late in the month. The PNA is positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 24th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative. Some of the guidance suggests that the AO could go negative around or just after January 18th for a short period of time. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +5.14 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.753. On January 11 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.337 (RMM). The January 10-adjusted amplitude was 2.059 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (2.2° below normal).

To avoid confusion, I was referring to Central Park. Other parts of the region could reach 15”.

Probably under 15” but above where things currently stand.

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and mild High temperatures will likely reach lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 43° Newark: 45° Philadelphia: 46° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.2°; 15-Year: 40.1° Newark: 30-Year: 39.7°; 15-Year: 40.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.1°; 15-Year: 41.9° Another shot of cold air is likely this weekend. Afterward, a storm will likely bring snow changing to rain late Sunday night or Monday.

Tomorrow will be another mild day. Much of the region will see temperatures rise into the lower 40s. However, the mild period will be shortlived. Another shot of Arctic air will move in during the weekend. Its arrival could be preceded by some snow or rain showers late Friday or Friday night. After a dry weekend, a strong storm could bring snow changing to rain to much of the region. Details remain to be resolved. January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will very likely be below normal. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks until late in the month. The PNA is now positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 24th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative. Some of the guidance suggests that the AO could go negative around or just after January 18th. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was -0.32 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.816. On January 10 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.056 (RMM). The January 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.886 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.6° (2.1° below normal).

Scatter Diagrams for NYC’s 6”+ and 10”+ January snowstorms for the AO and PNA.

Morning thoughts… Today will be sunny and milder. High temperatures will likely reach upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 38° Newark: 40° Philadelphia: 42° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.3°; 15-Year: 40.2° Newark: 30-Year: 39.8°; 15-Year: 40.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.1°; 15-Year: 42.0° Another shot of cold air is likely this weekend. Afterward, a storm will likely bring snow changing to rain Sunday night or Monday.

After another very cold night, tomorrow will turn less harsh as the mercury again returns to the 30s in much of the region. However, another shot of Arctic air is likely late in the week. The subtropical jet could begin to become more active near mid-month. That could create additional opportunities for storminess. January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will very likely be below normal. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks until late in the month. The PNA is now positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 20. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was -5.04 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.773. On January 9 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.885 (RMM). The January 8-adjusted amplitude was 2.031 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.6° (2.1° below normal).

Despite brilliant sunshine, the noon temperature at Central Park was 16. The last time the temperature was in the teens at noon was February 1, 2019 when the mercury also stood at 16. The high temperature that day was 21.

Last night's snow squall:

Morning thoughts… Today will be sunny but very cold. High temperatures will likely reach upper teens and lower 20s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 21° Newark: 23° Philadelphia: 25° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.4°; 15-Year: 40.2° Newark: 30-Year: 39.9°; 15-Year: 41.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.2°; 15-Year: 42.1° After a cold start, tomorrow will turn milder. Another shot of very cold air will move into the region late this week.

Quick video from around 12:40 am:

It will be bitterly cold tomorrow. Temperatures will likely rise no higher than the upper teens and lower 20s as the core of the Arctic air mass moves through the region. Even Washington, DC's record-smashing 1,072 day streak without a temperature in the teens could come to an end tomorrow or Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be less harsh as the mercury again returns to the 30s in much of the region. The subtropical jet could begin to become more active near mid-month. That could create additional opportunities for storminess. January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will very likely be below normal. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks until late in the month. The PNA has just gone positive and is likely to remain positive through January 20. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was -24.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.059. On January 8 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.032 (RMM). The January 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.047 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.8° (1.9° below normal).

Morning thoughts… In the wake of the Arctic front’s passage, temperatures are falling. It will be partly sunny, windy, and cold today. High temperatures will likely reach upper 20s and lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 28° Newark: 31° Philadelphia: 32° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.5°; 15-Year: 40.3° Newark: 30-Year: 39.9°; 15-Year: 41.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.3°; 15-Year: 42.2° Tomorrow will be the coldest day this winter so far. Temperatures will rise no higher than the upper teens and lower 20s.

Arctic air will move into the region starting late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will see the temperature remain nearly steady during the daytime before falling. Readings will likely top out in the upper 20s and perhaps lower 30s throughout much of the region. A bitterly cold day will follow on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain near or below 20° throughout the day as the core of the Arctic air mass moves through the region. Even Washington, DC's record-smashing 1,071 day streak without a temperature in the teens could come to an end. Wednesday will be less harsh as the mercury again returns to the 30s. The subtropical jet could begin to become more active near mid-month. That could create additional opportunities for storminess. January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will likely be below normal. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was -27.74 today. That was the lowest value since June 20, 2020 when the SOI was -33.95. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.148. MJO information was not available. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.0° (1.7° below normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and milder today. Some light rain is possible, with some freezing rain occurring north and west of New York City and Newark. High temperatures will likely reach upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 40° Newark: 41° Philadelphia: 44° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.5°; 15-Year: 40.5° Newark: 30-Year: 40.0°; 15-Year: 41.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.4°; 15-Year: 42.3° Arctic air will begin moving toward the region tomorrow. Tuesday will be the coldest day this winter so far.

Things are warmer now (1991-2020 base).

Some freezing rain is possible tomorrow before temperatures become briefly milder. An even stronger cold shot is likely early next week with temperatures remaining near or below 20° throughout the day on Tuesday. Even Washington, DC's record-smashing 1,070 day streak without a temperature in the teens could come to an end. The subtropical jet could begin to become more active near mid-month. That could create additional opportunities for storminess. January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will likely be below normal. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was -22.65 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.768. MJO information was not available. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.0° (1.7° below normal).

I’m sorry to read this. You have my fullest condolences.

Big snowstorm for Days 11-12.

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny and cold today. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 30° Newark: 32° Philadelphia: 32° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.6° Newark: 30-Year: 40.1°; 15-Year: 41.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.5°; 15-Year: 42.3° Some light rain and ice is possible tomorrow. An Arctic shot lies ahead for early next week.

This is the one: 115 NOUS41 KOKX 281641 PNSOKX NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-CTZ005>012-282000- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT - SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 1130 AM EST WED JAN 28 2004 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS... IN INCHES...FROM THE WINTER STORM THAT AFFECTED SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WE EXTEND OUR APPRECIATION TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS... SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND OTHERS FOR THEIR REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB...VIA OUR HOME PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX (ALL LOWER CASE). STORM TIME/DATE COMMENTS LOCATION SNOWFALL OF (INCHES) MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...FAIRFIELD... STAMFORD 11.0 0900 AM 1/28 COS COB 11.0 0900 AM 1/28 NEW CANAAN 10.5 1030 AM 1/28 DARIEN 10.0 0900 AM 1/28 NORWALK 9.6 0935 AM 1/28 SHELTON 7.0 1005 AM 1/28 DANBURY 6.8 0900 AM 1/28 WESTPORT 6.1 0620 AM 1/28 BRIDGEPORT 5.0 0630 AM 1/28 ...NEW HAVEN... WATERBURY 8.0 0900 AM 1/28 BEACON FALLS 7.8 0900 AM 1/28 NORTH BRANFORD 7.5 0930 AM 1/28 MERIDEN 6.5 0900 AM 1/28 NEW HAVEN 6.3 0900 AM 1/28 NAUGATUCK 6.0 0400 AM 1/28 MILFORD 6.0 0900 AM 1/28 ...MIDDLESEX... HADDAM 6.8 0900 AM 1/28 OLD SAYBROOK 6.8 0900 AM 1/28 ...NEW LONDON... JEWITT CITY 7.0 0600 AM 1/28 COLCHESTER 6.8 0900 AM 1/28 OLD SAYBROOK 6.8 0900 AM 1/28 GROTON 6.5 0900 AM 1/28 NORWICH 6.0 0650 AM 1/28 NEW JERSEY ...BERGEN... ELMWOOD PARK 11.0 0900 AM 1/28 RIDGEWOOD 10.5 0700 AM 1/28 FAIR LAWN 10.3 0630 AM 1/28 FORT LEE 9.5 0645 AM 1/28 CLOSTER 9.3 0700 AM 1/28 OAKLAND 9.0 0700 AM 1/28 SADDLE BROOK 9.0 0700 AM 1/28 MIDLAND PARK 9.0 0800 AM 1/28 RAMSEY 8.8 0700 AM 1/28 GARFIELD 8.4 0630 AM 1/28 WYCKOFF 8.3 0700 AM 1/28 RIVER VALE 6.8 0900 AM 1/28 ...ESSEX... SOUTH ORANGE 9.0 0905 AM 1/28 IRVINGTON 8.0 0905 AM 1/28 NEWARK INTL AIRPORT 7.0 1100 AM 1/28 WEST ORANGE 6.5 0800 AM 1/28 BLOOMFIELD 6.5 0700 AM 1/28 ...HUDSON... HARRISON 8.5 0800 AM 1/28 SECAUCUS 7.0 1045 AM 1/28 KEARNY 5.5 1030 AM 1/28 ...PASSAIC... BLOOMINGDALE 12.2 0700 AM 1/28 WAYNE 10.6 0930 AM 1/28 WANAQUE 10.5 0600 AM 1/28 LITTLE FALLS 9.0 0820 AM 1/28 GREENWOOD 8.0 0700 AM 1/28 ...UNION... UNION TOWNSHIP 8.7 0745 AM 1/28 ROSELLE PARK 8.3 0925 AM 1/28 CRANFORD 5.8 0730 AM 1/28 GARWOOD 5.5 0630 AM 1/28 NEW YORK ...BRONX... PARKCHESTER 10.4 0800 AM 1/28 ...KINGS... GRAVESEND 8.3 0840 AM 1/28 SHEEPSHEAD BAY 7.5 0830 AM 1/28 ...NASSAU... BELLMORE 11.5 0700 AM 1/28 SOUTH MERRICK 9.5 0755 AM 1/28 GREAT NECK 9.5 0930 AM 1/28 LEVITTOWN 9.0 0800 AM 1/28 NORTH MERRICK 8.5 0850 AM 1/28 OCEANSIDE 8.3 1000 AM 1/28 HICKSVILLE 7.7 0725 AM 1/28 FLORAL PARK 7.1 0820 AM 1/28 LONG BEACH 7.0 0930 AM 1/28 MERRICK 7.0 0930 AM 1/28 ROCKVILLE CENTER 7.0 1020 AM 1/28 LYNBROOK 6.5 1115 AM 1/28 ...NEW YORK... CENTRAL PARK 10.3 1030 AM 1/28 ...ORANGE... NEW WINDSOR 10.6 0800 AM 1/28 MONROE 10.3 0755 AM 1/28 GOSHEN 9.3 0745 AM 1/28 WALDEN 9.0 0800 AM 1/28 WARWICK 9.0 0730 AM 1/28 GREENWOOD LAKE 8.5 0700 AM 1/28 BLOOMING GROVE 8.3 1030 AM 1/28 MIDDLETOWN 7.8 0740 AM 1/28 ...PUTNUM... PATTERSON 8.0 0800 AM 1/28 CARMEL 7.0 0800 AM 1/28 ...QUEENS... FAR ROCKAWAY 10.5 0830 AM 1/28 LA GUARDIA AIRPORT 8.7 0700 AM 1/28 FRESH MEADOWS 8.0 0630 AM 1/28 RIDGEWOOD 6.5 0500 AM 1/28 JFK AIRPORT 6.2 0700 AM 1/28 ...RICHMOND... STATEN ISLAND 7.0 1200 AM 1/28 WESTERLEIGH 5.5 0855 AM 1/28 ...ROCKLAND... SUFFERN 9.0 0845 AM 1/28 SPARKILL 6.8 0700 AM 1/28 NEW CITY 6.0 0700 AM 1/28 ...SUFFOLK... DIX HILLS 14.6 0845 AM 1/28 SMITHTOWN 13.5 0900 AM 1/28 CENTERPORT 11.5 0730 AM 1/28 ISLIP 11.5 0830 AM 1/28 WEST BABYLON 11.3 0700 AM 1/28 SAINT JAMES 11.2 0830 AM 1/28 EAST NORTHPORT 11.2 1000 AM 1/28 WEST BABYLON 11.0 0910 AM 1/28 CENTEREACH 10.7 1030 AM 1/28 NORTH BABYLON 10.5 1000 AM 1/28 WEST ISLIP 10.1 0930 AM 1/28 LAKE RONKONKOMA 10.0 0945 AM 1/28 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 10.0 1000 AM 1/28 FARMINGDALE 9.5 0845 AM 1/28 SHOREHAM 9.5 0930 AM 1/28 SAYVILLE 9.0 0915 AM 1/28 NWS UPTON 8.1 0700 AM 1/28 RIVERHEAD 8.0 0945 AM 1/28 ROCKY POINT 7.5 0920 AM 1/28 MANORVILLE 7.5 0800 AM 1/28 EAST SETAUKET 6.4 0700 AM 1/28 EAST QUOGUE 6.0 0900 AM 1/28 BAITING HOLLOW 5.7 0800 AM 1/28 EAST HAMPTON 5.0 0800 AM 1/28 SAG HARBOR 4.5 0840 AM 1/28 SOUTHAMPTON 4.1 0830 AM 1/28 ...WESTCHESTER... HASTING-ON-HUDSON 10.0 0850 AM 1/28 THORNWOOD 10.0 0750 AM 1/28 WHITE PLAINS 9.5 0700 AM 1/28 YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 8.0 0800 AM 1/28 OSSINING 8.0 0820 AM 1/28 $$

@LibertyBell For reference, you can find archived NWS text products here: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml

No. Those are the Canadian ensembles.

Other than the January 2004 event, no.