donsutherland1

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly cloudy and hot. A few places could see an afternoon or evening shower or thundershower. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 80 and lower 90s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 89° Newark: 95° Philadelphia: 92° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and still warm. Temperatures will likely run a few degrees cooler than today. Showers and thundershowers are possible.

The following information is based on a multiple regression equation based on high temperatures at Newark, LaGuardia Airport, and White Plains to estimate the high temperatures at Central Park for June to address the impact of today’s thick tree cover. The equation was based on June 1-June 30, 1971-2000 daily high temperatures. That period was the last base normal period during which at least half of the days were not impacted by increasing tree cover. A few days were excluded from the sample due to “Missing” values for White Plains. Based on the regression equation, there may have been up to 32 additional 90° days in June during the 2000-20 period. That would lift Central Park’s average number of such days during June 2000-20 to 3.8 from 2.2. That would be reasonably in line with the 5.2 recorded at LaGuardia Airport and 4.2 at Newark.

The weekend ended on another hot note. Temperatures soared into the 90s in many areas, including some areas along the Long Island Sound and Atlantic Ocean. Temperatures reached 90° or above at locations including: Allentown: 92° Atlantic City: 91° Baltimore: 96° Boston: 94° Bridgeport: 93° (old record: 88°, 1953, 1968, and 2020) Burlington: 95° (old record: 94°, 1925) Concord: 93° Harrisburg: 94° Hartford: 94° Islip: 90° (old record: 89°, 1968) Manchester, NH: 94° (old record: 93°, 1953) New Haven: 92° (old record: 88°, 1953) New York City-LGA: 95° (old record: 93°, 2010) New York City-NYC: 92° Newark: 97° (old record: 92°, 2010) Philadelphia: 93° Poughkeepsie: 92° (tied record set in 1947) Providence: 93° Scranton: 90° Sterling, VA: 93° (old record: 92°, 2005) Toronto: 92° (old record: 91°, 2008) Trenton: 92° Washington, DC: 92° White Plains: 91° Wilmington, DE: 90° 90° Days for Select Cities (through June 6): Albany: 0 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days) Allentown: 4 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days) Baltimore: 5 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days) Boston: 4 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days) Bridgeport: 2 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days) Burlington: 3 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days) Harrisburg: 4 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days) Hartford: 4 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days) Islip: 2 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days) New York City-JFK: 2 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days) New York City-LGA: 2 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days) New York City-NYC: 1 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days) Newark: 6 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days) Philadelphia: 5 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days) Scranton: 4 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days) Washington, DC: 6 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days) New York City-Newark Average: 3 (2020: 22 days) ...Expected: 3 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Tomorrow will be another hot day. The heat will be most intense relative to climatology across northern New England and Quebec. Widespread near record and record high temperatures are likely in that region. The hot weather will likely last into the middle of the week before a cooling trend commences. Late this week and weekend could see cooler than normal conditions. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -21.44 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.840 today. On June 4 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.995 (RMM). The June 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.089 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

I don’t agree that the Conservancy is an “innocent bystander.” The NWS has no jurisdiction beyond the equipment. It cannot contract work crews to trim the trees.

Using a regression equation for all June maximum temperatures for EWR, LGA, HPN, and NYC for 1971-00 (the last “normal” period that was mostly free of the impact of tree overgrowth at Central Park) but excluding the small number of days with missing values at HPN, Central Park should have had a high temperature of 93 yesterday. That the rooftop Manhattan mesonet station had a high of 91 yesterday adds evidence that the statistical estimate for Central Park is reasonable. The actual value of 89 was more than 2 sigma below the expected value. It falls outside the 95% confidence interval based on the high temperatures at EWR, LGA, and HPN. The coefficient of determination for the equation is 0.955. Almost certainly, there are other such outlier values. I will run through the June 2000-2020 data looking for such values later today or this evening. A similar situation likely exists for July and August.

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny and hot. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 80 and lower 90s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 91° Newark: 98° Philadelphia: 95° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and hot. Temperatures will likely run a few degrees cooler than today. The following record high minimum temperatures could be tied or broken today: Bridgeport: 65°, 2016, 2019 and 2020; Low through 8 am: 65° Islip: 66°, 2016 and 2019; Low through 8 am: 66° New York City-JFK: 67°, 1988 and 2016; Low through 8 am: 69° New York City-LGA: 72°, 1966; Low through 8 am: 76° Newark: 71°, 1981 and 2020; Low through 8 am: 71° White Plains: 68°, 1966; Low through 8 am: 68°

During summer 2020 (June-August), Newark had an average high temperature of 86.5°. If one used the 1971-00 relationship (regression analysis based on June 1-August 30 maximum temperatures), the Central Park mean temperature was predicted to be 85.2°. Using the 1991-00 data-derived regression estimate, the predicted mean temperature would have been 84.4°, a 0.8° decrease. The actual figure was, in fact, 84.4°. The changed statistical relationship highlights the growing disconnect between regional temperatures and those in Central Park. As the divergence continues, it is reasonable to question whether Central Park should remain a first order station, especially as it is becoming less representative of the region’s climate.

Under bright sunshine, much of the region away from the Long Island Sound or Atlantic Ocean saw the temperature reach or exceed 90°. 90° or above high temperatures included: Allentown: 90° Atlantic City: 90° Baltimore: 94° Boston: 91° Harrisburg: 92° Hartford: 92° New York City-LGA: 94° (old record: 91°, 1953) Newark: 95° (old record: 92°, 1932, 1953, and 1966) Philadelphia: 93° Poughkeepsie: 92° (tied record set in 1934 and tied in 1966) Scranton: 90° Sterling, VA: 92° (old record: 90°, 2002) Trenton: 90° Washington, DC: 91° Wilmington, DE: 91° In addition, Bridgeport tied its daily record of 86°, which was set in 1953. 90° Days for Select Cities (through June 5): Albany: 0 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days) Allentown: 3 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days) Baltimore: 4 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days) Boston: 3 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days) Bridgeport: 1 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days) Burlington: 2 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days) Harrisburg: 3 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days) Hartford: 3 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days) Islip: 1 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days) New York City-JFK: 2 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days) New York City-LGA: 1 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days) New York City-NYC: 0 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days) Newark: 5 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days) Philadelphia: 4 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days) Scranton: 3 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days) Washington, DC: 5 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days) New York City-Newark Average: 2 (2020: 22 days) ...Expected: 3 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) In the Northern Plains, more recordbreaking heat occurred today ahead of an advancing cold front. Daily records included: Bismarck: 103° (old record: 96°, 1952) Duluth: 94° (old record: 88°, 1925 and 1988) Fargo: 100° (old record: 95°, 1939) Minneapolis: 99° (old record: 92°, 1925) Toronto: 88° (old record: 86°, 1940) Hot weather will likely last into the middle of next week before a cooling trend commences. Late next week and weekend could see cooler than normal conditions. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -20.32 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.811 today. On June 3 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.089 (RMM). The June 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.058 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Unfortunately, that is the case when it comes to the climate record. The Conservancy does not place much value in the integrity of the climate record. That's the reality of its inaction despite what is now unequivocal evidence of the impact of the overgrowth of the trees around the ASOS.

The Conservatory won’t deal with the problem. However, it has acted in other cases when there were hanging limbs, so it has the capacity to do what is needed.

It’s worth reposting these numbers: Changes in Summer (June-August) Average High Temperatures (1971-00 vs. 1991-20 Means): Bridgeport: +0.9° Islip: +1.3° New Brunswick: +1.4° New York City-JFK: +1.0° New York City-LGA: +1.6° Newark: +0.8° Poughkeepsie: +1.1° White Plains: +1.0° Average: +1.1° Median: +1.1° Standard Deviation: +0.3° Trimmed Mean (excluding the highest and lowest changes): +1.1° Second Trimmed Mean (excluding the two highest and lowest changes): +1.1° New York City-Central Park: -0.1° (more than 3 sigma below the regional change excluding Central Park) Note: The tree obstructions at Central Park were noted beginning in 1992

It’s the thick tree cover.

It’s back up to 89. Maybe it can hit 90.

It’s again 89 in Central Park. Maybe the thermometer can sneak to 90 now that the sun may not be impaired as much by the thick tree cover.

Boston added another 90-degree day today. Central Park peaked at 89.

This afternoon, the temperature rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s in the New York City Metro Area. At 4 pm, the temperature stood at daily records of 93° at LaGuardia Airport and 94° at Newark. Roses remain in abundance at the New York Botanical Garden.

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny and hot. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 80 and lower 90s in much of the region. Daily high temperature records will likely be broken at Newark and LaGuardia Airport and could be challenged at JFK Airport. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 91° Newark: 96° Philadelphia: 93° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and hot.

No. Its temperature records go back to 1956.

Congratulations.

The final high temperature at Gretna, Manitoba was 106°. That easily set a new all-time record high temperature for that location.

Extreme heat again covered parts of the Northern Plains into southern Canada. Daily records included: Bismarck: 106° (old record: 95°, 1988) ***hottest so early in the season*** Fargo: 102° (old record: 95°, 1959) Grand Forks, ND: 103° (old record: 96°, 1961) Gretna, MB: 103° (old record: 94°, 1961)***new all-time record*** International Falls: 98° (old record: 92°, 1988) ***hottest so early in the seaon; tied June record*** Minneapolis: 97° (old record: 96°, 1968) Minot, ND: 105° (old record: 95°, 1988) ***new June record*** Winnipeg: 97° (old record: 96°, 1988) Death Valley also reached 121°, which broke the daily record of 120° set in 1996 and tied in 2003. This was also the second consecutive day on which the temperature reached at least 120° at Death Valley. Only 2000 and 2003 saw such streaks prior to June 5. The hot air that has been setting records in the Northern Plains region will move eastward in coming days. A piece of that hot air will reach the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. Hot weather will likely arrive beginning tomorrow. The most intense heat will likely last into the middle of next week before a cooling trend commences. The first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through the first half of June. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -14.13 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.390 today. On June 2 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.058 (RMM). The June 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.088 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

From this afternoon’s thunderstorm: During the thunderstorm Following the thunderstorm

From this afternoon’s thunderstorm:

LGA, JFK, and EWR are probably more likely to see such temperatures than Central Park.

As of 2 pm, the temperature at Minot, ND had reached 102°. That is the earliest 100° reading on record. The prior earliest such temperature occurred on June 7, 1988 when the mercury topped out at 101°. Today's temperature also ties the June monthly record of 102°, which was set on June 20, 1988. A piece of that air mass will impact the region starting tomorrow through Wednesday.