donsutherland1

There are resonance events in climate change where the flow is distorted. It’s too soon to know whether that was the case this time around. One would need an attribution study to be sure.

This was an impressive cold shot. Records are again falling today.

The combination of a near record cold air mass to the north and clouds and rain that precluded sunshine all contributed.

Record Low Maximum Temperatures: May 29, 2021 Atlantic City: 54°(old record: 56°, 1946) Binghamton: 45° (old record: 50°, 1964) Bridgeport: 52° (old record: 58°, 1950) Farmingdale: 52° (old record: 59°, 2017) Harrisburg: 52° (old record: 57°, 1990) Hartford: 49° (old record: 51°, 1917) ***Latest-season high in the 40s*** Islip: 51° (old record: 58°, 2017) Mount Pocono: 43° (old record: 53°, 1990) ***Coldest high so late in the season*** New Haven: 53° (old record: 58°, 2017) New York City-JFK: 52° (old record: 57°, 1967) New York City-LGA: 52° (old record: 58°, 1950) New York City-NYC: 51° (tied record set in 1884) ***Coldest high so late in the season*** Newark: 52°(old record: 60°, 1940 and 1950) Philadelphia: 54° (old record: 56°, 1884) Poughkeepsie: 50° (old record: 58°, 1990 and 2017) Scranton: 50°(old record: 56°, 1967) Trenton: 50° (old record: 57°, 1901) Westhampton: 51° (old record: 58°, 2017) White Plains: 49° (old record: 58°, 2017) ***Latest-season high in the 40s***

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly cloudy and very cool. Periods of rain and showers are likely. Numerous areas could set daily record low maximum temperatures. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 52° Newark: 54° Philadelphia: 53° Rain will end tomorrow morning. It will become milder. Record low maximum temperatures for May 30 for select locations: Allentown: 52°, 1953 Atlantic City: 58°, 1953 and 1971 Binghamton: 45°, 1953 Bridgeport: 58°, 1953 Farmingdale: 59°, 2017 Harrisburg: 58°, 1915 and 1953 Hartford: 55°, 1953 Islip: 60°, 2017 Mount Pocono: 53°, 1924 New Haven: 57°, 1953 New York City-JFK: 57°, 1953 New York City-LGA: 58°, 1950 New York City-NYC: 55°, 1884 Newark: 53°, 1953 Philadelphia: 59°, 1918 Poughkeepsie: 52°, 1953 Scranton: 52°, 1953 Trenton: 54°, 1915 Westhampton: 58°, 2017 White Plains: 56°, 1953

Probably not due to the clouds and rain. 37-40 will be the most likely range.

Through 8 pm, many locations in the region remained on track to set new daily record low maximum temperatures. High temperatures and daily record low maximum temperatures included: Allentown: 50° (58°, 1950) Atlantic City: 54°(56°, 1946) Binghamton: 45° (50°, 1964) Bridgeport: 52° (58°, 1950) Farmingdale: 52° (59°, 2017) Harrisburg: 52° (57°, 1990) Hartford: 49° (51°, 1917) Islip: 51° (58°, 2017) Mount Pocono: 43° (53°, 1990) New Haven: 53° (58°, 2017) New York City-JFK: 52° (57°, 1967) New York City-LGA: 52° (58°, 1950) New York City-NYC: 51° (51°, 1884) Newark: 52°(60°, 1940 and 1950) Philadelphia: 54° (56°, 1884) Poughkeepsie: 50° (58°, 1990 and 2017) Scranton: 50°(56°, 1967) Trenton: 50° (57°, 1901) Westhampton: 51° (58°, 2017) White Plains: 49° (58°, 2017) If the temperatures fail to reach 50° at Hartford and White Plains during the remainder of the day, both locations would record their latest ever high temperature in the 40s. The existing record for both locations was set on May 27, 1961. If the high temperature of 43° is not surpassed at Mount Pocono, it would be the coldest high temperature so late in the season by 8 days. In addition, Binghamton reported a low temperature of 38°. That tied the daily record set in 1953 and tied in 1964 and 2008. Farmingdale recorded a low temperature of 48°, which tied the daily record set in 2014. New York City's LaGuardia Airport recorded a low temperature of 48°, which tied the daily record set in 1946. Tomorrow will be another cloudy, cool, and often rainy day. Additional record low maximum temperatures are possible. The first 7-10 days of June could start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through at least the first 10 days of June. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -11.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.374 today. On May 27 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.174 (RMM). The May 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.451 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.2° (normal).

Yes. 51 is the high for today so far.

This afternoon saw light rain and a stiff northeasterly breeze. Temperatures hovered near 50°.

000 NOUS41 KOKX 291337 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-300137- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 937 AM EDT SAT MAY 29 2021 ...PRECIPITATION REPORTS... LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE PROVIDER ...CONNECTICUT... ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... DANBURY 1.99 IN 0615 AM 05/29 CWOP STAMFORD 1.94 IN 0815 AM 05/29 AWS 5.6 NE DANBURY 1.90 IN 0745 AM 05/29 HADS WESTPORT 1.88 IN 0816 AM 05/29 CWOP DANBURY 1.87 IN 0822 AM 05/29 CWOP SHELTON 1.82 IN 0815 AM 05/29 AWS MONROE 1.78 IN 0600 AM 05/29 COCORAHS SHELTON 1.77 IN 0819 AM 05/29 AWS STAMFORD 1.75 IN 0200 AM 05/29 TRAINED SPOTTER NORWALK 1.74 IN 0800 AM 05/29 COCORAHS REDDING 1.70 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS STAMFORD 1.70 IN 0815 AM 05/29 CWOP BETHEL 1.64 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS DANBURY 1.64 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP NEWTOWN 1.64 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS NORWALK 1.64 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS BROOKFIELD 1.62 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS TRUMBULL 1.62 IN 0550 AM 05/29 COCORAHS WESTPORT 1.61 IN 0816 AM 05/29 CWOP SHELTON 1.60 IN 0816 AM 05/29 CWOP ARMONK 1.54 IN 0821 AM 05/29 CWOP STAMFORD 1.54 IN 0824 AM 05/29 CWOP DARIEN 1.53 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS STRATFORD 1.53 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS GREENWICH 1.52 IN 0824 AM 05/29 AWS RIDGEFIELD 1.52 IN 0630 AM 05/29 COCORAHS WESTON 1.52 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS FAIRFIELD 1.51 IN 0815 AM 05/29 CWOP SHELTON 2.3 WSW 1.51 IN 0724 AM 05/29 COCORAHS BROOKFIELD 1.43 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS STAMFORD 1.42 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS DANBURY 1.41 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP FAIRFIELD 1.40 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS 3 N NEW CANAAN 1.40 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS REDDING 1.39 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP STRATFORD 1.33 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS GREENWICH 1.25 IN 0815 AM 05/29 CWOP BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 1.18 IN 0752 AM 05/29 ASOS DANBURY 1.12 IN 0819 AM 05/29 AWS DARIEN 1.09 IN 0745 AM 05/29 COCORAHS GREENWICH 1.04 IN 0823 AM 05/29 AWS MONROE 1.04 IN 0821 AM 05/29 CWOP ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... MIDDLETOWN 2.49 IN 0824 AM 05/29 CWOP ESSEX 2.00 IN 0658 AM 05/29 COCORAHS CLINTON 1.86 IN 0817 AM 05/29 CWOP WESTBROOK 1.85 IN 0816 AM 05/29 CWOP SALEM 2.8 WNW 1.77 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS KILLINGWORTH 1.72 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS CHESTER CENTER 2.7 WNW 1.71 IN 0815 AM 05/29 COCORAHS MIDDLETOWN 0.3 SE 1.68 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS CLINTON 1.63 IN 0816 AM 05/29 CWOP KILLINGWORTH 1.62 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS MIDDLEFIELD 1.62 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS DURHAM 1.57 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS HIGGANUM 1.57 IN 0800 AM 05/29 COCORAHS 3.3 N MOODUS 1.48 IN 0715 AM 05/29 HADS MIDDLEFIELD 1.44 IN 0824 AM 05/29 AWS DURHAM 1.41 IN 0822 AM 05/29 CWOP HIGGANUM 1.37 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS DURHAM 1.30 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS ...NEW HAVEN COUNTY... MADISON 1.97 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS HAMDEN 1.76 IN 0600 AM 05/29 COCORAHS NAUGATUCK 1.73 IN 0615 AM 05/29 COCORAHS GUILFORD 1.70 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COOP WALLINGFORD 1.69 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS WATERBURY 1.66 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS MERIDEN AIRPORT 1.64 IN 0753 AM 05/29 ASOS WATERBURY AIRPORT 1.62 IN 0751 AM 05/29 AWOS SEYMOUR 1.2 WSW 1.61 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS MERIDEN 1.59 IN 0650 AM 05/29 COCORAHS GUILFORD 1.7 W 1.58 IN 0803 AM 05/29 COCORAHS HAMDEN 1.57 IN 0821 AM 05/29 CWOP NEW HAVEN 1.54 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.1 N 1.51 IN 0500 AM 05/29 COCORAHS BRANFORD 1.47 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP MILFORD 1.47 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP NEW HAVEN 1.44 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS 1.9 NW NAUGATUCK 1.41 IN 0730 AM 05/29 HADS STONY CREEK 1.41 IN 0828 AM 05/29 CWOP MILFORD 1.39 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP BETHANY 1.38 IN 0202 AM 05/29 CWOP MERIDEN 1.35 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS BRANFORD 1.33 IN 0802 AM 05/29 CWOP GUILFORD 1.32 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP NEW HAVEN AIRPORT 1.29 IN 0753 AM 05/29 ASOS NEW HAVEN 1.22 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP 1.1 W WALLINGFORD 1.22 IN 0800 AM 05/29 HADS WOODBRIDGE 1.22 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS BRANFORD 1.21 IN 0819 AM 05/29 AWS OUTER ISLAND, BRANFORD 1.21 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS WALLINGFORD 1.18 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS NEW HAVEN 1.15 IN 0824 AM 05/29 AWS NEW HAVEN 1.01 IN 0824 AM 05/29 AWS EAST HAVEN 1.00 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP WOLCOTT 1.00 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS ...NEW LONDON COUNTY... NORWICH 2.19 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COOP PRESTON 2.17 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS NORWICH 2.16 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS UNCASVILLE 2.16 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS EAST LYME 2.09 IN 0600 AM 05/29 COCORAHS NORWICH 5.2 SE 2.04 IN 0805 AM 05/29 COCORAHS GROTON 1.98 IN 0824 AM 05/29 CWOP NEW LONDON 1.94 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP WATERFORD 1.94 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS MYSTIC 1.93 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS PAWCATUCK 1.93 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS OLD LYME 1.91 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS PAWCATUCK 1.90 IN 0715 AM 05/29 COCORAHS MYSTIC 1.87 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS LYME 1.86 IN 0815 AM 05/29 CWOP GROTON 1.85 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS STONINGTON 1.79 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE 1.72 IN 0600 AM 05/29 COCORAHS GROTON AIRPORT 1.71 IN 0756 AM 05/29 ASOS NIANTIC 1.70 IN 0600 AM 05/29 COCORAHS PAWCATUCK 1.69 IN 0816 AM 05/29 CWOP COLCHESTER 1.7 ENE 1.63 IN 0800 AM 05/29 COCORAHS 1 NE NORWICH 1.51 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS NEW LONDON 1.38 IN 0824 AM 05/29 AWS LISBON 1.07 IN 0821 AM 05/29 CWOP ...NEW JERSEY... ...BERGEN COUNTY... 0.6 W OAKLAND 2.01 IN 0800 AM 05/29 HADS OAKLAND 1.85 IN 0816 AM 05/29 CWOP HASBROUCK HEIGHTS 1.84 IN 0824 AM 05/29 CWOP 1 SSE FRANKLIN LAKES 1.76 IN 0745 AM 05/29 IFLOWS OAKLAND 1.71 IN 0800 AM 05/29 COCORAHS NEW MILFORD 1.70 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS OAKLAND 1.67 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP HACKENSACK 1.66 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS OAKLAND 1.66 IN 0817 AM 05/29 CWOP RIDGEWOOD 1.64 IN 0700 AM 05/29 TRAINED SPOTTER TETERBORO AIRPORT 1.59 IN 0801 AM 05/29 ASOS TENAFLY 1.56 IN 0730 AM 05/29 COCORAHS PARAMUS 1.53 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS EMERSON 1.46 IN 0806 AM 05/29 CWOP FRANKLIN LAKES 1.45 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS LODI 1.44 IN 0745 AM 05/29 IFLOWS FAIR LAWN 1.41 IN 0825 AM 05/29 CWOP FRANKLIN LAKES 1.38 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS LEONIA 1.37 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS LITTLE FERRY 1.34 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS HACKENSACK 1.33 IN 0815 AM 05/29 CWOP CRESSKILL 1.27 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS OAKLAND 1.26 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS PARK RIDGE 1.26 IN 0800 AM 05/29 IFLOWS RIVER VALE 1.23 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS BOGOTA 1.15 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS MAHWAH 1.08 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS ...ESSEX COUNTY... 0.6 SW CALDWELL 1.88 IN 0745 AM 05/29 IFLOWS LIVINGSTON 1.81 IN 0815 AM 05/29 CWOP CALDWELL 1.78 IN 0753 AM 05/29 ASOS NEWARK 1.78 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS WEST ORANGE 1.76 IN 0823 AM 05/29 CWOP WEST CALDWELL 1.74 IN 0810 AM 05/29 CWOP FAIRFIELD 1.72 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS VERONA 1.68 IN 0750 AM 05/29 COCORAHS WEST CALDWELL 1.47 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS ORANGE RESERVOIR 1.44 IN 0800 AM 05/29 IFLOWS MILLBURN 1.30 IN 0815 AM 05/29 CWOP WEST ORANGE 1.19 IN 0820 AM 05/29 URBANET MONTCLAIR 1.11 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS ...HUDSON COUNTY... HARRISON 2.00 IN 0801 AM 05/29 CWOP HARRISON 1.91 IN 0800 AM 05/29 CO-OP OBSERVER KEARNY 1.83 IN 0825 AM 05/29 CWOP HARRISON 1.65 IN 0819 AM 05/29 URBANET HARRISON 1.59 IN 0819 AM 05/29 AWS 1 SW JERSEY CITY 1.57 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS KEARNY 1.57 IN 0821 AM 05/29 CWOP JERSEY CITY 1.47 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS 1 ENE JERSEY CITY 1.34 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS HARRISON 1.31 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS HOBOKEN 1.30 IN 0822 AM 05/29 CWOP 1 W HOBOKEN 1.29 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS WEEHAWKEN 1.21 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS ...PASSAIC COUNTY... CHARLOTTESBURG RESERVOIR 1.94 IN 0800 AM 05/29 COOP WAYNE 1.82 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS RINGWOOD 1.81 IN 0810 AM 05/29 RAWS WEST MILFORD 1.79 IN 0824 AM 05/29 CWOP WAYNE 1.72 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS LITTLE FALLS 1.69 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS 2.1 E RINGWOOD 1.68 IN 0745 AM 05/29 IFLOWS 0.9 S WAYNE 1.68 IN 0745 AM 05/29 IFLOWS WEST MILFORD 1.68 IN 0745 AM 05/29 IFLOWS 1.5 SW RINGWOOD 1.52 IN 0745 AM 05/29 IFLOWS 0.8 E WEST PATERSON 1.48 IN 0745 AM 05/29 HADS 0.8 SE POMPTON LAKES 1.42 IN 0730 AM 05/29 HADS PASSAIC 1.39 IN 0816 AM 05/29 CWOP HAWTHORNE 1.36 IN 0825 AM 05/29 CWOP CLIFTON 1.23 IN 0815 AM 05/29 AWS CLIFTON 1.01 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS ...UNION COUNTY... CRANFORD 1.74 IN 0445 AM 05/29 COCORAHS WESTFIELD 1.52 IN 0545 AM 05/29 COCORAHS NEWARK AIRPORT 1.44 IN 0751 AM 05/29 ASOS MOUNTAINSIDE 1.21 IN 0730 AM 05/29 IFLOWS LINDEN AIRPORT 1.04 IN 0815 AM 05/29 AWOS ...NEW YORK... ...BRONX COUNTY... PELHAM PARKWAY HOUSES 2.25 IN 0815 AM 05/29 CWOP HARLEM 1.61 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS CITY ISLAND 1.57 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS ...KINGS COUNTY... BROOKLYN 1.72 IN 0825 AM 05/29 CWOP SOUTH SLOPE 1.67 IN 0821 AM 05/29 CWOP PROSPECT PARK 1.60 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS SHEEPSHEAD BAY 1.44 IN 0815 AM 05/29 CWOP BROOKLYN COLLEGE 1.39 IN 0820 AM 05/29 NYSM DYKER HEIGHTS 1.17 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP ...NASSAU COUNTY... WANTAGH 1.62 IN 0820 AM 05/29 NYSM EAST ROCKAWAY 1.61 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP LYNBROOK 0.6 ENE 1.61 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS MUTTONTOWN 1.60 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE 1.57 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.56 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N 1.54 IN 0809 AM 05/29 COCORAHS MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.52 IN 0801 AM 05/29 CWOP GREAT NECK 1.51 IN 0821 AM 05/29 CWOP SYOSSET 1.48 IN 0800 AM 05/29 COOP MINEOLA 1.38 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS SEARINGTOWN 1.35 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS OYSTER BAY 1.30 IN 0602 AM 05/29 CWOP LEVITTOWN 1.26 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS HICKSVILLE 1.25 IN 0623 AM 05/29 COCORAHS HEWLETT 1.23 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS LEVITTOWN 1.22 IN 0815 AM 05/29 CWOP CARLE PLACE 1.21 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP MUTTONTOWN 1.18 IN 0824 AM 05/29 AWS EAST HILLS 1.17 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS MERRICK 1.11 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP VALLEY STREAM 1.10 IN 0821 AM 05/29 CWOP WANTAGH 1.08 IN 0824 AM 05/29 CWOP ROCKVILLE CENTRE 1.07 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS FREEPORT 1.02 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS GLEN HEAD 1.01 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS ...NEW YORK COUNTY... WASHINGTON HEIGHTS 1.90 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS GREENWICH VILLAGE 1.84 IN 0815 AM 05/29 AWS MIDTOWN MANHATTAN 1.58 IN 0820 AM 05/29 NYSM MANHATTAN 1.50 IN 0815 AM 05/29 CWOP 1 S MIDTOWN MANHATTAN 1.43 IN 0819 AM 05/29 URBANET CENTRAL PARK 1.41 IN 0751 AM 05/29 ASOS ...ORANGE COUNTY... GREENWOOD LAKE 1.77 IN 0800 AM 05/29 COCORAHS US MILITARY ACADEMY 1.77 IN 0755 AM 05/29 RAWS 2.6 NW TUXEDO PARK 1.72 IN 0745 AM 05/29 HADS TUXEDO PARK 1.63 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS OTISVILLE 1.59 IN 0820 AM 05/29 NYSM WARWICK 1.56 IN 0820 AM 05/29 NYSM MIDDLETOWN 1.52 IN 0821 AM 05/29 CWOP WARWICK 1.50 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS WALDEN 1.46 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS NEWBURGH 1.43 IN 0821 AM 05/29 CWOP PORT JERVIS 1.43 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS VAILS GATE 1.42 IN 0821 AM 05/29 CWOP MONTGOMERY 1.41 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP MONTGOMERY AIRPORT 1.39 IN 0754 AM 05/29 AWOS CHESTER 1.38 IN 0815 AM 05/29 AWS HARRIMAN 1.38 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS MONTGOMERY 1.35 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP PORT JERVIS 1.33 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS WEST POINT 1.27 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS WASHINGTONVILLE 1.19 IN 0825 AM 05/29 CWOP GOSHEN 1.05 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS CHESTER 1.01 IN 0825 AM 05/29 CWOP ...PUTNAM COUNTY... MAHOPAC 1.85 IN 0819 AM 05/29 AWS COLD SPRING 1.68 IN 0722 AM 05/29 COCORAHS BREWSTER 1.65 IN 0820 AM 05/29 NYSM CARMEL HAMLET 1.63 IN 0800 AM 05/29 COOP BREWSTER 0.5 N 1.52 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS BREWSTER HILL 1.03 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS ...QUEENS COUNTY... NYC/JFK AIRPORT 1.51 IN 0751 AM 05/29 ASOS BELLEROSE 1.50 IN 0821 AM 05/29 CWOP 1 SSW RUSSELL GARDENS 1.44 IN 0600 AM 05/29 TRAINED SPOTTER KEW GARDEN HILLS 1.36 IN 0820 AM 05/29 NYSM NYC/LA GUARDIA 1.28 IN 0751 AM 05/29 ASOS FLUSHING 1.27 IN 0750 AM 05/29 COCORAHS ASTORIA 1.14 IN 0818 AM 05/29 CWOP ...RICHMOND COUNTY... STATEN ISLAND 1.66 IN 0816 AM 05/29 CWOP COLLEGE OF STATEN ISLAND 1.56 IN 0820 AM 05/29 NYSM STATEN ISLAND 1.50 IN 0823 AM 05/29 CWOP STATEN ISLAND (WILLOWBROOK) 1.49 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS ...ROCKLAND COUNTY... STONY POINT 1.83 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS MONTEBELLO 1.52 IN 0822 AM 05/29 CWOP SUFFERN 1.52 IN 0820 AM 05/29 NYSM POMONA 1.40 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS SPRING VALLEY 1.39 IN 0823 AM 05/29 CWOP NANUET 1.37 IN 0730 AM 05/29 IFLOWS POMONA 1.31 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS ORANGEBURG 1.27 IN 0824 AM 05/29 AWS SLOATSBURG 1.23 IN 0815 AM 05/29 CWOP NEW CITY 1.16 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS BLAUVELT 1.12 IN 0815 AM 05/29 CWOP ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... MILLER PLACE 2.56 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP RIDGE 2.53 IN 0821 AM 05/29 CWOP MILLER PLACE 2.45 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP BAY SHORE 2.41 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS UPTON 2.38 IN 0800 AM 05/29 COOP ISLIP AIRPORT 2.37 IN 0756 AM 05/29 ASOS SELDEN 1.6 ESE 2.37 IN 0800 AM 05/29 COCORAHS WEST BABYLON 2.33 IN 0825 AM 05/29 CWOP CENTEREACH 2.32 IN 0600 AM 05/29 COCORAHS LAKE RONKONKOMA 2.31 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP WEST ISLIP 2.29 IN 0740 AM 05/29 COCORAHS BRIGHTWATERS 2.28 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS ORIENT 2.27 IN 0817 AM 05/29 CWOP ORIENT POINT 2.25 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COOP ORIENT 2.23 IN 0824 AM 05/29 CWOP MATTITUCK 2.20 IN 0800 AM 05/29 COCORAHS EAST SETAUKET 2.17 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP SOUTHOLD 2.17 IN 0820 AM 05/29 NYSM NORTH PATCHOGUE 2.16 IN 0823 AM 05/29 CWOP PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE 2.11 IN 0611 AM 05/29 COCORAHS CUTCHOGUE 2.08 IN 0815 AM 05/29 CWOP FARMINGVILLE 2.08 IN 0822 AM 05/29 CWOP SHIRLEY AIRPORT 2.08 IN 0756 AM 05/29 ASOS BRIDGEHAMPTON 2.05 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COOP EASTPORT 2.04 IN 0745 AM 05/29 RAWS SAINT JAMES 2.04 IN 0821 AM 05/29 CWOP SAYVILLE 2.04 IN 0823 AM 05/29 CWOP SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.03 IN 0635 AM 05/29 COCORAHS EAST HAMPTON 1.97 IN 0815 AM 05/29 AWOS SAYVILLE 1.97 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS BAITING HOLLOW 1.96 IN 0400 AM 05/29 COOP SELDEN 1.96 IN 0753 AM 05/29 CWOP MONTAUK AIRPORT 1.95 IN 0754 AM 05/29 ASOS PATCHOGUE 1.94 IN 0824 AM 05/29 CWOP BAYPORT 1.0 SSE 1.85 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW 1.82 IN 0800 AM 05/29 COCORAHS SAGTIKOS PARKWAY 1.81 IN 0819 AM 05/29 AWS MANORVILLE 1.79 IN 0530 AM 05/29 COCORAHS SOUTHOLD 1.78 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP STONY BROOK 1.78 IN 0820 AM 05/29 NYSM REMSENBURG 1.70 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP NORTH BABYLON 1.68 IN 0822 AM 05/29 CWOP NORTHPORT 1.67 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP SHIRLEY 1.67 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS WESTHAMPTON AIRPORT 1.67 IN 0753 AM 05/29 ASOS 1 SW COMMACK 1.63 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS AMITYVILLE 0.3 NNW 1.62 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS RIDGE 1.57 IN 1159 PM 05/28 COCORAHS SHIRLEY 1.54 IN 0824 AM 05/29 CWOP EAST HAMPTON 1.53 IN 0823 AM 05/29 CWOP EASTPORT 1.53 IN 0813 AM 05/29 CWOP WEST ISLIP 1.52 IN 0819 AM 05/29 CWOP WEST GILGO BEACH 1.51 IN 0817 AM 05/29 CWOP N. BABYLON 1.49 IN 0825 AM 05/29 CWOP SMITHTOWN 1.48 IN 0815 AM 05/29 CWOP FORT SALONGA 1.44 IN 0817 AM 05/29 CWOP REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE 1.44 IN 0700 AM 05/29 COCORAHS MELVILLE 1.42 IN 0816 AM 05/29 CWOP HUNTINGTON 1.40 IN 0823 AM 05/29 CWOP KINGS PARK 1.40 IN 0815 AM 05/29 CWOP BLUE POINT 1.39 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP STONY BROOK 1.32 IN 0820 AM 05/29 CWOP 1 NNE WATERMILL 1.27 IN 0819 AM 05/29 AWS 1.1 SE SAG HARBOR 1.24 IN 0815 AM 05/29 HADS FARMINGDALE AIRPORT 1.22 IN 0753 AM 05/29 ASOS ORIENT 1.21 IN 1200 AM 05/29 TRAINED SPOTTER GREENLAWN 1.11 IN 0824 AM 05/29 CWOP NORTHPORT 1.06 IN 0821 AM 05/29 CWOP MELVILLE 1.01 IN 0824 AM 05/29 CWOP ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... NEW ROCHELLE 2.09 IN 0815 AM 05/29 AWS TARRYTOWN 1.79 IN 0817 AM 05/29 CWOP SHRUB OAK 1.78 IN 0600 AM 05/29 COOP SHRUB OAK 1.78 IN 0600 AM 05/29 COCORAHS EASTCHESTER 1.74 IN 0824 AM 05/29 AWS MIDLAND PARK 1.64 IN 0745 AM 05/29 IFLOWS KATONAH 1.62 IN 0800 AM 05/29 COCORAHS SOUTH SALEM 1.61 IN 0715 AM 05/29 COCORAHS CHAPPAQUA 1.60 IN 0816 AM 05/29 CWOP SOUTH SALEM 1.59 IN 0747 AM 05/29 COCORAHS THORNWOOD 1.58 IN 0747 AM 05/29 COCORAHS ARMONK 1.57 IN 0823 AM 05/29 CWOP SOMERS 1.52 IN 0820 AM 05/29 NYSM PEEKSKILL 1.48 IN 0823 AM 05/29 CWOP OSSINING 1.43 IN 0739 AM 05/29 CWOP NEW ROCHELLE 1.42 IN 0815 AM 05/29 CWOP ARMONK 1.40 IN 0816 AM 05/29 CWOP NORTH TARRYTOWN 1.31 IN 0819 AM 05/29 AWS RYE 1.26 IN 0825 AM 05/29 AWS WHITE PLAINS AIRPORT 1.26 IN 0756 AM 05/29 ASOS 3 ESE GOLDENS BRIDGE 1.22 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS ELMSFORD 1.19 IN 0819 AM 05/29 AWS IRVINGTON 1.14 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS MAMARONECK 1.10 IN 0824 AM 05/29 AWS HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON 1.09 IN 0815 AM 05/29 CWOP ELMSFORD 1.06 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON 1.01 IN 0820 AM 05/29 AWS ...MARITIME STATIONS... ...CONNECTICUT... QUAKER HILL 1.76 IN 0816 AM 05/29 CWOP GREENWICH 2.7 SE 1.42 IN 0600 AM 05/29 COCORAHS ...NEW JERSEY... JERSEY CITY 1.29 IN 0823 AM 05/29 CWOP ...NEW YORK... CITY ISLAND 1.35 IN 0817 AM 05/29 CWOP GREENWICH 1.33 IN 0823 AM 05/29 CWOP SHINNECOCK HILLS 1.28 IN 0821 AM 05/29 CWOP &&

Morning thoughts... Yesterday, New York City’s Central Park measured 1.22” of rain. That broke the daily precipitation record for May 28. The old record was 1.16”, which was set in 1906. More rain lies ahead. Today will be rainy and unseasonably cool. Numerous areas could set daily record low maximum temperatures. An additional 1.00”-2.00” rainfall is likely through tomorrow. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 54° Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with some additional showers or periods of rain. It will remain unseasonably cool. Record low maximum temperatures for May 29 for select locations: Allentown: 58°, 1950 Atlantic City: 56°, 1946 Bridgeport: 58°, 1950 Farmingdale: 59°, 2017 Islip: 58°, 2017 New Haven: 58°, 2017 New York City-JFK: 57°, 1967 New York City-LGA: 58°, 1950 New York City-NYC: 51°, 1884 Newark: 60°, 1940 and 1950 Philadelphia: 56°, 1884 Poughkeepsie: 58°, 1990 and 2017 Scranton: 56°, 1967 Trenton: 57°, 1901 Westhampton: 58°, 2017 White Plains: 58°, 2017

The Memorial Day will be rainy and unseasonably cool. Periods of rain are possible. Rainfall will likely total 1.00"-3.00" with some locally higher amounts during the weekend. The wettest areas could see rainfall figures near or above 5.00". The first 7-10 days of June could start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through at least the first 10 days of June. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -5.04 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.243 today. On May 26 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.451 (RMM). The May 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.034 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.4° (0.2° above normal).

19-12-6

Morning thoughts... Clouds will increase. Rain will arrive this afternoon. Some of the rain could be heavy especially overnight. A general 1.00”-3.00” rainfall is likely into Sunday morning. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 60s before the onset of the rain. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 66° Newark: 69° Philadelphia: 69° Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with showers and periods of rain. It will be unseasonably cool.

Cooler air will push into the region overnight. Much of the remainder of the month will likely see cooler to occasionally much cooler than normal conditions. The Memorial Day weekend will very likely be unsettled and cooler. Periods of rain are possible. Rainfall will likely total 0.50"-1.50" with some locally higher amounts during the weekend. The first 7-10 days of June could start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through at least the first 10 days of June. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -5.04 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.016 today. On May 25 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.020 (RMM). The May 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.576 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.6° (0.4° above normal).

Since Memorial Day was moved to the last Monday in May, there were no such cases in New York City.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. A shower or thundershower is possible. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 83° Newark: 86° Philadelphia: 84° Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with showers and periods of rain. It will be much cooler.

The 18z GFS forecasts three consecutive days on which the high temperature will stay below 60° in Central Park in coming days. Its forecast: May 29: 55° May 30: 57° May 31: 55° Since 1869, there has been only one such 3-day stretch beginning May 29 or later: June 3-5, 1945. The high temperatures were: June 3: 53°; June 4: 52°; June 5: 55°. The most recent late May case occurred during May 22-24, 2003 when the high temperatures were 56° on all three dates. All four prior cases that saw such stretches beginning May 21 or later had rainfall on at least two of the three days. In sum, the GFS is suggesting what would be a rare event. It is still too soon to be sure that it will verify given its rarity.

Great photo.

Ahead of an approaching cold front, numerous locations in the East reached or exceeded 90°. Those locations included: Allentown: 91° Baltimore: 94° (tied record set in 1914) Boston: 92° Concord: 92° Harrisburg: 92° Hartford: 90° Lynchburg: 93° (tied record set in 1933) Newark: 94° Norfolk: 97° Philadelphia: 92° Richmond: 95° (old record: 94°, 1953, 1984, and 1991) Roanoke: 93° Scranton: 91° Sterling, VA: 92° (tied record set in 2007) Washington, DC: 91° 90° Days for Select Cities (through May 26): Albany: 0 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days) Allentown: 2 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days) Baltimore: 3 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days) Boston: 2 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days) Bridgeport: 1 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days) Burlington: 2 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days) Harrisburg: 2 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days) Hartford: 2 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days) Islip: 1 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days) New York City-JFK: 2 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days) New York City-LGA: 0 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days) New York City-NYC: 0 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days) Newark: 4 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days) Philadelphia: 3 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days) Scranton: 2 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days) Washington, DC: 4 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days) New York City-Newark Average: 2 (2020: 22 days) ...Expected: 2 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Newark has now had 4 days on which the temperature rose to 90° or above in May. New York City's Central Park has none. Should Central Park fail to record a 90° day, that will break the record for most 90° days at Newark when Central Park had none during the month of May. The previous record was 3 days at Newark, which was set in 1985 and tied in 1999. Newark's 4 90° days are the most in May since 2018 when Newark also registered 4 such days. Parts of New York State, southern New England, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania will likely see a thunderstorm this evening. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe. Tomorrow will become fair, but will remain warm for the season. However, cooler air will arrive late in the day and at night. Much of the remainder of the month will likely see cooler to occasionally much cooler than normal conditions. A warming trend could commence as May comes to a close. The Memorial Day weekend will likely be unsettled and cooler. Periods of rain are possible. Rainfall will likely total 0.50"-1.50" with some locally higher amounts during the weekend. The first 7-10 days of June could start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through at least the first 10 days of June. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +0.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.073 today. On May 24 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.570 (RMM). The May 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.651 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal).

I’m very sorry to learn this sad news.

This is terrible news. May he R.I.P.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly cloudy and very warm. A shower or thundershower is possible. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 88° Newark: 94° Philadelphia: 92° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warm.

Book review at Yale Climate Connections: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/05/a-critical-review-of-steven-koonins-unsettled/

Another big push of warm air is likely tomorrow into Thursday. Many parts of the region will likely approach or reach 90° tomorrow. The remainder of the month will likely see cooler to occasionally much cooler than normal conditions. The Memorial Day weekend will likely be unsettled and cooler. Periods of rain are possible, though there is large uncertainty about the amount of precipitation. A light to perhaps moderate rainfall appears more likely than a heavy rainfall based on the ensembles. The first 7-10 days of June could start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -12.31 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.151 today. On May 23 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.643 (RMM). The May 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.763 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.0° (0.8° above normal).