donsutherland1

There could be a cold shot sometime after the first week of May according to some of the guidance. I’m not sure it will be as impressive as the current one.

Nothing right now. The pattern will become more unsettled for a time next week, though.

Morning thoughts... An unseasonably cool air mass covers the region this morning. The arrival of that air mass produced a trace of snow in Rochester and Syracuse yesterday and a daily record 0.1" in Binghamton. Today will be sunny, breezy, and pleasant. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 67° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and much warmer. 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 63.1° Average temperature: 63.3° Average error: 1.6° Newark: Average daily forecast: 64.4° Average temperature: 64.2° Average error: 2.4° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 65.6° Average temperature: 65.2° Average error: 1.8°

On April 29, the MJO was in Phase 8 with an amplitude of 3.239. That set a new April record amplitude for Phase 8.

At 8:10 pm, some snow showers were diving southeast through the Catskills. The snow showers were indicated both by the radar and on mPing observations. Snow showers and mixed rain and snow showers are likely overnight in parts of northeastern Pennsylvania, extreme northwestern New Jersey, and parts of central New York State. In New York City, April is finishing with a mean temperature near 54.6°. That was 1.6° above normal. A somewhat warmer than normal May appears likely. The weekend will start with temperatures near or just below normal. Sunday will see noticeably warmer conditions. Next week could see one or two very warm days (Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday) in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Meanwhile, in Canada's far north, Eureka in Nunavut registered a new April record high temperature of 30°. The daily record for April 30 was 21°, which was set in 1948. The prior monthly record was 29°, which was set on April 27, 2021. Unseasonable warmth will again extend from the Southwest to the Northern Plains tomorrow. Some locations could challenge or break daily record high temperatures. Both the dynamical guidance and statistical measures that incorporate ENSO and the forecast teleconnections are in agreement that the first half of May will likely be warmer than normal in the region. The ongoing, long-duration MJO passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is also consistent with a warmer than normal May despite the current ENSO conditions. Both April 10-25, 1986 and 2004 saw such an MJO passage (one week or longer through Phase 7), though this one is stronger than both of those prior cases. Both cases had a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was -5.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.311 today. On April 28 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 3.073 (RMM). The April 27-adjusted amplitude was 3.046 (RMM). The amplitude of 3.073 is the highest amplitude on record for the MJO's passage through Phase 8 during April. The previous record was set on April 27 at 3.046. Prior to that, there had been no cases where the amplitude reached or exceeded 3.000 during April when the MJO was in Phase 8. There were only four prior years where the MJO moved through Phase 8 during the second half of April at an amplitude of 2.000 or above. 1977 and 1979 went on to register a very warm May. 1997 and 2005 went on to see a cooler than normal May.

Mount Pocono could have a freeze with some snow showers. Binghamton might have a coating of snow. Scranton might see some showers or rain and snow, but probably no accumulation and also no freeze.

Based on the above complete chart, it appears that Roy Spencer engaged in a deceptive practice on his blog when posting a skewed chart. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2021/04/an-earth-day-reminder-global-warming-is-only-50-of-what-models-predict/

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 1.3 1.0 1.8 1.0 -0.1

Morning thoughts... Yesterday, rainfall records were set in Albany and Binghamton. Albany picked up 1.55” rain (old record: 0.91”, 1996) and Binghamton received 2.46” (old record” 0.86”, 1981). Today, clouds will break for sunshine and it will become very windy. Winds could gust at 45 mph or higher. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 69° Newark: 72° Philadelphia: 70° Tomorrow will be fair and somewhat cooler.

Showers and periods of rain are likely tonight into early tomorrow. The heaviest rainfall amounts (1" or more) will likely occur over central and upstate New York and central and northern New England. Clouds will yield to sunshine tomorrow. It will become very windy with gusts of 45 mph or above in a large part of the region. Unseasonable warmth will extend from the Southwest to the Northern Plains. Some locations could challenge daily record high temperatures tomorrow or Saturday. Both the dynamical guidance and statistical measures that incorporate ENSO and the forecast teleconnections are in agreement that the first half of May will likely be warmer than normal in the region. The ongoing, long-duration MJO passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is also consistent with a warmer than normal May despite the current ENSO conditions. Both April 10-25, 1986 and 2004 saw such an MJO passage (one week or longer through Phase 7), though this one is stronger than both of those prior cases. Both cases had a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was +5.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.314 today. On April 27 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 3.046 (RMM). The April 26-adjusted amplitude was 2.720 (RMM). Today's amplitude at Phase 8 was the highest such amplitude in April recorded in April. The previous record was 2.735, which was set on April 6, 2012. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.6° (1.6° above normal).

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly cloudy with some showers and periods of rain, especially during the afternoon into early tomorrow. A thunderstorm is possible. High temperatures will likely reach the lower to middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 77° Philadelphia: 81° Any rain will end early tomorrow. It will become somewhat cooler.

The temperature soared into the 80s in a large part of the region this afternoon. The Connecticut shore, Long Island, and parts of the Jersey shore were exceptions on account of proximity to cooler waters. High temperatures included: Allentown: 86° Atlantic City: 89° (old record: 88°, 2009) Baltimore: 89° Bridgeport: 60° Islip: 74° Harrisburg: 87° New York City-Central Park: 85° New York City-JFK: 73° New York City-LGA: 83° Newark: 89° Philadelphia: 87° Poughkeepsie: 84° Scranton: 85° Trenton: 85° Washington, DC: 87° Wilmington, DE: 87° Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy and cooler, though still mild for the season. Some showers and periods of rain are likely, especially during the afternoon into the night. The heaviest rainfall amounts (1" or more) will likely occur over central and upstate New York and central and northern New England. Elsewhere, unseasonable warmth will develop in an area stretching from the Southwest to the Northern Plains. Some locations could challenge daily record high temperatures Friday or Saturday. Both the dynamical guidance and statistical measures that incorporate ENSO and the forecast teleconnections are in agreement that the first half of May will likely be warmer than normal in the region. The ongoing, long-duration MJO passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is also consistent with a warmer than normal May despite the current ENSO conditions. Both April 10-25, 1986 and 2004 saw such an MJO passage (one week or longer through Phase 7), though this one is stronger than both of those prior cases. Both cases had a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was +10.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.498 today. On April 26 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.721 (RMM). The April 25-adjusted amplitude was 2.511 (RMM). Today's amplitude at Phase 8 was the highest such amplitude in April since April 6, 2012 when the amplitude was 2.735. It is also the third highest amplitude on record for Phase 8 during April. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.7° (1.7° above normal).

Earlier today, there was a large spread between the temperature at Newark and New York City's LaGuardia Airport (cited by @bluewave). However, by 3 pm, that spread was reduced to 6°, as the temperature rose sharply to 82° at LaGuardia Airport from 71° an hour earlier. Since October 7, 1939 when recordkeeping began at LaGuardia Airport, there have been 113 days on which Newark registered a high temperature that was 10° or above LaGuardia's daily high temperature. The most recent such day occurred just last week on April 21 when the temperature topped out at 75° in Newark and 65° at LaGuardia Airport. The record difference is 16°, which was set on April 15, 1949 (EWR: 85°; LGA: 69°) and tied on April 20, 1993 (EWR: 80°; LGA: 69°). The most frequent cases where Newark had a high temperature of 10° or more above LaGuardia Airport occurred during April. Top 3 Months: April: 47 (41.6%) days March: 25 (22.1%) days May: 23 (20.4%) days Seasonal Ranking: Spring: 95 (84.1%) days Summer: 11 (9.7%) days Winter: 5 (4.4%) days Fall: 3 (2.7%) days The reason for this timing concerns ocean temperatures. During the spring into the start of summer, the ocean is still relatively cool. During fall and winter, the ocean is relatively warm in contrast to air temperatures.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and very warm. Clouds could increase late in the day. High temperatures will likely reach the 80s in much of the region, with the exception of Long Island, the Connecticut shore, and parts of the Jersey Shore. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 83° Newark: 84° Philadelphia: 86° Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with some rain. Rainfall of 1” or more will likely be confined to central New York State and central New England northward. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

This afternoon the temperature soared to 87° in Chicago, which tied the daily record set in 1986. That warmth offers a glimpse of the warmth that will likely prevail in the Middle Atlantic region tomorrow. Since 1990, there were 11 prior days on which the temperature reached 85° or above in Chicago during the second half of April. In 64% of the cases, New York City registered a high temperature of 80° or above the following day. In 82% of the cases, Philadelphia saw the temperature reach or exceed 80°. The mean temperature the day after Chicago reached 85° or above was 80.9° in New York City and 85.4° in Philadelphia. Even as the remainder of the week will be somewhat cooler, April is closing with above to much above normal temperatures. This outcome is consistent with the MJO's having moved through Phase 6 at a very high amplitude during the April 1-15 period. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. The MJO's ongoing passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is consistent with an outcome that typically yields 1-2 80° days. Meanwhile, following the brief period of unseasonably cool weather in the Desert Southwest, unseasonable warmth will develop late this week into the coming weekend in an area stretching from the Southwest to the Northern Plains. Some locations could challenge daily record high temperatures on Friday or Saturday. Both the dynamical guidance and statistical measures that incorporate ENSO and the forecast teleconnections are in agreement that the first half of May will likely be warmer than normal in the region. The ongoing, long-duration MJO passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is also consistent with a warmer than normal May despite the current ENSO conditions. Both April 10-25, 1986 and 2004 saw such an MJO passage (one week or longer through Phase 7), though this one is stronger than both of those prior cases. Both cases had a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was +5.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.538 today. On April 25 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.511 (RMM). The April 24-adjusted amplitude was 2.078 (RMM). Today's amplitude at Phase 7 was the highest such amplitude in April since April 4, 1988 when the amplitude was 2.626. It is also the sixth highest amplitude on record for Phase 7 during April. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.8° (1.8° above normal).

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and noticeably warmer. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in the northern Mid-Atlantic region to lower and middle 70s around Philadelphia. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 76° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and unseasonably warm. Away from the immediate coastline, many areas will see the temperature reach 80° or above.

Tomorrow will turn noticeably warmer. The temperature will soar well into the 60s across much of the region. April will likely close with much above normal temperatures. The guidance has now moved into good agreement that the month will close with highs generally in the 70s. The potential for an 80° reading as far north as New York City exists. Tomorrow and Wednesday could be the warmest days in a region stretching from the Great Lakes area to the Northeast. This outcome would be consistent with the MJO's having moved through Phase 6 at a very high amplitude during the April 1-15 period. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. The MJO's ongoing passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is consistent with an outcome that typically yields 1-2 80° days. Meanwhile, after a brief period of unseasonably cool weather in the Desert Southwest early this week, an area of unseasonable warmth will develop late this week into the coming weekend in an area stretching from the Southwest to the Northern Plains. Some locations could challenge daily record high temperatures on Friday or Saturday. Both the dynamical guidance and statistical measures that incorporate ENSO and the forecast teleconnections are in agreement that the first half of May will likely be warmer than normal in the region. The ongoing, long-duration MJO passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is also consistent with a warmer than normal May. Both April 10-25, 1986 and 2004 saw such an MJO passage (one week or longer through Phase 7), though this one is stronger than both of those prior cases. Both cases had a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was +4.32 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.313 today. On April 24 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.078 (RMM). The April 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.814 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.8° (1.8° above normal).

Morning thoughts... Today will be sunny but cool. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 61° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 63° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and noticeably warmer. The closing days of April could feature much above normal temperatures.

Tomorrow will be fair with readings in the lower and middle 60s in the Middle Atlantic region. It will become noticeably warmer on Tuesday. April will likely close with much above normal temperatures. The guidance has now moved into good agreement that the month will close with highs generally in the 70s. The potential for an 80° reading as far north as New York City exists. Tuesday and Wednesday could be the warmest days in a region stretching from the Great Lakes area to the Northeast. This outcome would be consistent with the MJO's having moved through Phase 6 at a very high amplitude during the April 1-15 period. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. The MJO's ongoing passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is consistent with an outcome that typically yields 1-2 80° days. Meanwhile, after a brief period of unseasonably cool weather in the Desert Southwest early this week, an area of unseasonable warmth will develop late this week into the coming weekend in an area stretching from the Southwest to the Northern Plains. Some locations could challenge daily record high temperatures on Friday or Saturday. Both the dynamical guidance and statistical measures that incorporate ENSO and the forecast teleconnections are in agreement that the first half of May will likely be warmer than normal in the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was -13.27 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.187 today. On April 23 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.814 (RMM). The April 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.762 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.8° (1.8° above normal).

Morning thoughts... Rain will end later this morning or early this afternoon. Clouds could break late in the day. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 61° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 65° Tomorrow sunny but somewhat cooler than normal. A warmup will follow. The closing days of April could feature much above normal temperatures.

Overnight and tomorrow morning, a storm will bring rain to the region. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall is likely from Philadelphia to New York City with some locally higher amounts. Lesser amounts are likely north of New York City. Clouds will likely begin to break during the afternoon. The day could end with some sunshine. Monday will be fair but cool. It will become noticeably warmer on Tuesday. April will likely close with much above normal temperatures. The guidance has now moved into good agreement that the month will close with highs generally in the 70s. The potential for an 80° reading as far north as New York City exists. Tuesday and Wednesday could be the warmest days in a region stretching from the Great Lakes area to the Northeast. This outcome would be consistent with the MJO's having moved through Phase 6 at a very high amplitude during the April 1-15 period. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. The MJO's ongoing passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is consistent with an outcome that typically yields 1-2 80° days. Both the dynamical guidance and statistical measures that incorporate ENSO and the forecast teleconnections are in agreement that the first half of May will likely be warmer than normal in the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was -1.01 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.000 today. On April 22 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.762 (RMM). The April 21-adjusted amplitude was 2.048 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.8° (1.8° above normal).

Thank you for the kind words. A lot is currently in bloom.

Under bright sunshine, the temperature soared into the lower 70s in New York City. Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden:

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 68° Tomorrow will cloudy and rainy. A general 0.50”-1.50” rainfall is likely across the region. The closing days of April could feature much above normal temperatures.

I don’t know all of the specifics about that machine. For starters, though, Mars has a vastly higher concentration of CO2 in its atmosphere then a the Earth. On Mars, the atmosphere is 95% carbon dioxide. On Earth, it is a trace gas (about 0.04% of the atmosphere). The technical challenges involved with removing CO2 from Earth’s atmosphere are likely much greater than they are on Mars. I expect that such technology will be improved, though, carbon dioxide removal might eventually become feasible on a meaningful scale at some point in the future.