donsutherland1

I love the winter, too. I don't look forward to how things are evolving.

For illustrative purposes, below are the 10-year moving averages for MJO Phases 5-7 vs. MJO Phases 8-1-2, during December-February for the period ended: 1990: P5-7: 35.2 days; P8-1-2: 32.7 days 2000 P5-7: 33.8 days; P8-1-2: 29.2 days 2010: P5-7: 42.7 days; P8-1-2: 25.6 days 2020: P5-7: 49.0 days; P8-1-2: 22.0 days Note: Amplitude was not considered in this quick illustration. Amplitude, along with multiple additional factors shape both the winter temperature, precipitation, and snowfall outcomes.

With the cooler air poised to settle in, it should be noted that there is strong agreement among the newly-updated subseasonal guidance that the generally cooler than normal weather could persist through the first week of October. The most recent run of the EPS weeklies extends the cool anomalies through September with at least near normal readings afterward. Of course, the timeframes associated with that guidance come with a lot of uncertainty. But the degree of consensus on the subseasonal guidance is quite impressive.

Italy and, to a lesser extent, Spain also saw a lot of daily record high temperatures earlier today.

Chicago Sun Times editorial on the wildfires raging in the West: https://chicago.suntimes.com/platform/amp/2020/9/13/21432733/wildfires-derecho-climate-change-suntimes-editorial

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly cloudy and a bit warmer than yesterday. A shower or thundershower is possible during the afternoon or evening as a cold front moves across the region. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 76° Newark: 78° Philadelphia: 80° Cooler air will arrive for tomorrow. Much of the coming week will feel like early autumn. An even colder air mass could arrive late in the week.

Thank you, Jerry. I hope all is well with you.

From Rick Thomas: https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1304864366106349569?s=20

Arctic sea ice extent rose by just under 1,600 square kilometers to 3.564 million square kilometers on JAXA. It will probably be at least a week before it is certain that the 2020 minimum extent has been reached.

Thanks. All is well with us. I hope everything is well with your family and you, as well.

Thanks for the kind words. Maybe, I’ll post more in the New England forum this winter. I sure hope there won’t be another “ratter” to borrow from Jerry’s terminology. Hopefully, things will be better with COVID so that the ski areas can enjoy good business.

From NPR: Legates confirmed to NPR that he was recently hired as NOAA's deputy assistant secretary of commerce for observation and prediction. The position suggests that he reports directly to Neil Jacobs, the acting head of the agency that is in charge of the federal government's sprawling weather and climate prediction work. Neither Legates nor NOAA representatives responded to questions about Legates' specific responsibilities or why he was hired. The White House also declined to comment. Legates has a long history of using his position as an academic scientist to publicly cast doubt on climate science. His appointment to NOAA comes as Americans face profound threats stoked by climate change, from the vast, deadly wildfires in the West to an unusually active hurricane season in the South and East. https://www.npr.org/2020/09/12/912301325/longtime-climate-science-denier-hired-at-noaa This is a disturbing development. The NOAA has outstanding scientists. Individuals such as Legates (not to mention Jacobs) only undermine the NOAA’s performance and reputation. Hopefully, Congress will weigh in and, if there is a new Administration, Legates would be dismissed.

Apparently, Facebook enforces climate change denial.

Welcome to Americanwx.com. I hope you have a good experience here and feel free to share what’s happening in France and in Europe.

Yes. I am aware of the great adversity that has confronted the Millennial Generation (both the financial crisis/great recession and then the pandemic/severe recession). Generation Z, at least the older members, are also facing severe challenges. It would be nice if more from the earlier generations would assist more with climate challenge, but I worry that this won't be the case. Breaking the inertia, despite the overwhelming body of evidence, is frustratingly difficult.

Despite bright sunshine, today provide a preview of autumn. High temperatures reached only the lower and middle 70s in most areas. Select high temperatures included: Baltimore: 75° Boston: 67° Islip: 71° New York City: 74° Newark: 74° Philadelphia: 76° Washington, DC: 75° Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and somewhat warmer. The season's coolest air mass so far could arrive next week. The temperature will very likely fall into the 50s in New York City's Central Park for the first time since June 15. Generally below normal readings could persist into at least the last week of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn. The SOI was +6.30. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.146. On September 11, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.931 (RMM). The September 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.899. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.9°. Finally, on September 11, Arctic sea ice extent was 3.571 million square kilometers (JAXA). Based on 2010-2019 data, the highest 25% bound was 3.742 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound was 3.581 million square kilometers. The lowest 10% bound is 3.465 million square kilometers. 2020 is the second consecutive year with a minimum extent figure below 4.000 million square kilometers and the third such year on record. 2020 also has, by far, the second lowest figure on record.

It’s deeply unfortunate. I was in Iceland a few years ago and the people there were had a lot to say about climate change. They mentioned changes that made fishing more difficult, that the year earlier puffins had a difficult time nesting on account of an absence of fish from abnormal warmth and the disappearing glaciers. I was able to see evidence of a vast retreat that had already taken place with some of the glaciers.

At Jones Beach, the temperature rose into the lower 70s, but there was a stiff onshore breeze. Three photos from this afternoon:

If the warming were merely artifacts of statistical manipulation, one would not be witnessing a lengthening of growing seasons, increased frequency of early- and late-season blooms, earlier nesting of numerous species of birds, the losses in mass from Greenland and Antarctica, the declining Arctic sea ice (summer minimum and annual average). In the big picture, even if one didn’t rely on the vast body of research showing the ongoing warming, there would be indications of big change from those other examples.

As noted earlier in this thread, here is a published paper showing that the UAH dataset may be flawed: https://journals.ametsoc.org/jtech/article/34/1/225/342433/A-Comparative-Analysis-of-Data-Derived-from

The point about unknown accuracy is crucial. IEM is the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, which “collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks.” One is dealing with raw data in many cases. Quality control is vital. No researcher would use data that has not been quality controlled in their work. Homogenization is also important. This paper explains, among other things, what it is and why it is necessary (pp.5-6): https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v3/techreports/Technical Report GHCNM No15-01.pdf The reality is that the quality-controlled data makes clear the extent of the warming that is underway. Such warming is extraordinary in how rapid and dramatic it has been when compared against geological time scales. Thus, efforts have been made to cast doubt on the high quality data. If there were a coherent alternative explanation, papers would already have been written, submitted for peer review and published. But no such alternative case exists.

Great points, Bluewave. The science is clear about the warming and its causes. It is no random occurrence that a disproportionate share of warm years and warm summers has occurred 2000 and later or 2010 or later. This is exactly what one would expect statistically in a climate where greenhouse gas forcing is increasing and, in turn, the world is warming.

From the IEM site: While we use care to provide accurate weather/climatic information, errors may occur because of equipment or other failure. We therefore provide this information without any warranty of accuracy. Users of this weather/climate data do so at their own risk, and are advised to use independent judgement as to whether to verify the data presented. The IEM is a volunteer effort and receives no funds for facilities or staff from Iowa State University or the State of Iowa. Users of the IEM must therefore recognize that the IEM may be discontinued at any time with little or no notice. Errors exist. For example, during Phoenix's recent September heat, I looked up Phoenix's highest hourly readings for September. Several hours listed 117 degrees on September 1, 1950. In fact, the high temperature that day was the September record figure of 116. The August record is 117.

Mean Summer Temperature (Contiguous United States): 30-Year Period Ending: 1950 71.7 1960 71.8 1970 71.3 1980 71.4 1990 71.4 2000 71.5 2010 71.9 2020 72.3 (highest on record) Source: NCEI Data

Those are 1 day anomalies. They are not year-to-date anomalies. 2020 is running very warm and could well wind up the 2nd warmest year on record on the major data sets (GISS, HadCru, NOAA, Berkeley). Below are the year-to-date anomalies: