donsutherland1

The latest ensemble idea concerning the January 13-15 system. Ensemble support for 1" or more for tonight into tomorrow, which had briefly risen to 25% on the EPS, has fallen sharply overnight. High resolution models will provide better insight at this point. For NYC itself, little or no accumulation appears likely given the warm surface and above freezing readings expected. A slushy coating is possible in the nearby suburbs.

Sadly, that’s very likely the case.

Yet another day will very likely pass without New York City seeing a measurable snowfall at Central Park.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny with near to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures. High temperatures will reach the lower 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 41° Newark: 43° Philadelphia: 44° A weak system will bring a period of light rain and snow to the region late tonight into tomorrow. Little or no accumulation is likely in New York City. Interior sections could pick up a coating. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.6° Newark: 30-Year: 40.1°; 15-Year: 41.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.5°; 15-Year: 42.4°

Yes. That’s correct.

Harrisburg had 42.6". Atlantic City, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Richmond and Washington, DC did not have 40" of snow.

The EPS ensembles for January 8-9, 2023 in New York City:

The 1966 blizzard occurred later. Norfolk's seasonal snowfall during 1965-1966 was 14.7". 41.9" fell at Norfolk during winter 1979-1980. The biggest snowfalls occurred during February 6-7, 1980 (12.4") and March 1-2, 1980 (13.7").

2001-02 was much warmer than 1972-73.

Right now, a "small flurry of snow" would be a welcome respite from the ongoing snow drought.

The probability of a measurable snowfall during the January 13-15 period has fallen sharply today. At this point, such an outcome appears unlikely. Things could still change somewhat given the timeframe involved.

The second warmest opening week of January is concluding in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. Even as somewhat cooler weather now prevails, no Arctic shots appear likely for the foreseeable future. The second week of January will be cooler, but a cold outcome is unlikely. The once moderate support for snowfall during the January 13-15 period diminished sharply. Just 6% of 12z EPS members show 1" or more snow for New York City. Prior to then, there remains a low probability of measurable snowfall tomorrow night into Monday. 2022 became the 14th year during which New York City received no measurable snowfall through December 31st. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions. The SOI was +24.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.499 today. On January 5 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.041 (RMM). The January 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.102 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.5° (6.8° above normal).

Of course, there were some bleak winters during the 18th century, too. From John Adams’ diary:

The actual CFSv2 forecast is for a warmer than normal February. Of course, at this range, skill is very low.

2001-02 received 0.5” of snow on today’s date.

Today, Winter 2022-2023 will become just the 9th winter on record during which New York City had seen no measurable snowfall through January 7th. The last such winter was 2015-2016. Those winters were: 1885-1886, 1965-1966, 1972-1973, 1994-1995, 1997-1998, 1999-2000, 2006-2007, 2015-2016, and 2022-2023.

No. Boston had 0.2” yesterday bringing the seasonal total to 1.2”.

The smoothing can result in large differences between what fell at a specific location and the average figure for a geographic area.

This is an early report. I suspect it will be revised lower later this year.

There are a variety of solutions. The absence of sufficient cold will be the biggest problem.

From the site: “The aerial distribution of snowfall and population information are combined in an equation that calculates a NESIS score…” The score may yet be adjusted.

Prospects for a January 13-15 snowfall--never more than a low probability for a big snowfall, but a moderate probability for measurable snowfall in the NYC area for a time--are diminishing.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and mild. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 46° Newark: 48° Philadelphia: 48° After a dry weekend, a weak system could bring some rain or wet snow to the region Sunday night into Monday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.7°; 15-Year: 40.7° Newark: 30-Year: 40.2°; 15-Year: 41.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.6°; 15-Year: 42.5°

Here’s the list. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis

That was another awesome blizzard. That the models suddenly trended from an offshore solution to a blockbuster storm made it even more memorable.