donsutherland1

Morning thoughts... Rain will arrive today as a strong cold front approaches and moves across the region. A storm will track northward along that front, but pass to the north and west of the New York City area. An area running from upstate New York up the St. Lawrence River in Quebec could pick up a moderate to significant snowfall. Following the frontal passage, an unseasonably cold air mass will move into the East for the first two days of April. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 68° Tomorrow will be blustery and noticeably colder. On Friday morning, New York City could see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018 when the temperature fell to. 32°. Some near record to record low temperatures are possible on Friday in the Gulf States and Southeast.

March will conclude on a mild note tomorrow. Temperatures will rise into the lower 60s across the region. However, rain will develop during the afternoon as a strong cold front advances eastward. Across central and upstate New York and parts of Quebec, the rain will change to accumulating snow. There a moderate to significant accumulation is possible. April will start out on the side. On Friday morning, New York City's Central Park could see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018. In an area extending from the Gulf States to the Southeast, some near record and record low temperatures are possible that morning. Moderation will occur during the weekend. Temperatures will likely return to the 60s in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. That warmer scenario remains the base case. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +1.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.852 today. On March 28 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.684 (RMM). The March 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.424 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.7° (3.2° above normal).

Yes. There was no freeze during the storm. April 8-9, 2018 both had lows of 32 degrees.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 65° Philadelphia: 68° Rain will arrive late tomorrow as a strong cold front approaches and moves across the region. An area running from upstate New York up the St. Lawrence River in Quebec could pick up a moderate to significant snowfall. Following the frontal passage, an unseasonably cold air mass will move into the East for the first two days of April. New York City could see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018 when the temperature fell to. 32°. Some near record to record low temperatures are possible on Friday in the Gulf States and Southeast.

Tomorrow will be fair and a bit milder. Overall, the remainder of March will continue to see generally warmer than normal readings. April could start out on the cold side, but moderation should occur later in the first week of the month. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The warmer scenario remains the base case. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +0.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.703 today. On March 27 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.424 (RMM). The March 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.093 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.6° (3.1° above normal).

NYC's highest snowfall with a temperature above freezing occurred on April 2, 2018 when 5.5" snow fell.

In October 2002, the lowest temperature in New York City was 36°, on October 24. Prior to the 32° temperature on October 31, 2020, New York City had not seen an October freeze since October 31, 1988 when the temperature fell to 31°.

Morning thoughts... Clouds will break and it will become partly to mostly sunny. It will also be breezy. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 55° Newark: 56° Philadelphia: 57° Tomorrow will be fair and somewhat milder. A strong cold shot is likely at the start of April.

A cold front will cross the region with some showers and perhaps a thundershower. Afterward, clouds will break and tomorrow should be partly sunny, breezy, and cooler. The remainder of March will continue to see generally warmer than normal readings. As March concludes and April commences, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is forecast to plunge more than 3 sigma from its current value. As recently as 2018, the AO fell from +1.743 to -2.188 during the March 26-April 3 period. There was a strong cold shot and even a snowstorm. A cold shot is more likely than a snowstorm this time around. Overall, April could start out on the cold side. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +3.54 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.927 today. On March 26 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.094 (RMM). The March 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.065 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.5° (3.0° above normal).

Following this morning’s rainfall, thick fog moved across parts of southern Westchester County during the mid-afternoon hours. The fog largely dissipated by late afternoon.

The position of the block (east-based) will be a key difference. Snow in upstate New York, central and southern New England is far more likely with such a setup.

Morning thoughts... A storm will pass to the west of the region. Periods of rain, including some thunderstorms, are likely. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 71° Tomorrow will be fair and cooler. A strong cold shot is likely at the start of April.

Tomorrow mostly cloudy with some showers and possibly thundershowers. It will remain mild for the season. The remainder of March will continue to see generally warmer than normal readings. As March concludes and April commences, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is forecast to plunge more than 3 sigma from its current value. As recently as 2018, the AO fell from +1.743 to -2.188 during the March 26-April 3 period. There was a strong cold shot and even a snowstorm. A cold shot is more likely than a snowstorm this time around. Overall, April could start out on the cold side. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.927 today. On March 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.068 (RMM). The March 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.391 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.4° (2.9° above normal).

Under partly to mostly sunny conditions, the temperature rose to 69° in Central Park. At the New York Botanical Garden, even more flowers have burst into bloom over the past week.

The last time that happened was March 29, 1998. JFK: 82°; LGA: 81°; and, NYC: 81°

Morning thoughts... In the wake of yesterday’s record-breaking warmth, today will be partly sunny and continued warm. However, it will be quite a bit cooler than yesterday. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 66° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 69° Clouds and rain will return for Sunday. A strong cold shot is likely at the start of April.

Temperatures soared to record highs in much of the region today as clouds yielded to sunshine and strong winds. At New York City's Central Park, the temperature reached 80° in March for the first time since March 31, 1998 when the temperature topped out at a sizzling 86°. Today was also just the 16th day on record when the temperature reached or exceeded 80° in Central Park. Records go back to 1869. Today was also the first 80° reading at JFK Airport since March 29, 1998 when the mercury rose to 82°. High temperatures included: Albany: 75° (old record: 74°, 1986) Allentown: 77° (old record: 74°, 1963) Annapolis: 83° Atlantic City: 83° (old record: 71°, 1986 and 2003) Baltimore: 83° Bridgeport: 79° (old record: 70°, 1954) Georgetown, DE: 86° (old record: 78°, 1988 and 2004) Harrisburg: 77° Hartford: 77° (old record: 74°, 1922) Islip: 78° (old record: 65°, 1976) Jacksonville: 90° (old record: 88°, 1965) New Haven: 77° (old record: 67°, 1954) New York City-JFK: 81° (old record: 67°, 1954) New York City-LGA: 82° (old record: 72°, 1943) New York City-NYC: 82° (old record: 76°, 1922) Newark: 84° (old record: 73°, 1986) Philadelphia: 83° (old record: 80°, 1921) Poughkeepsie: 79° (old record: 75°, 1949 and 1963) Richmond: 86° (old record: 85°, 1939) Savannah: 90° (old record: 88°, 1929) Salisbury: 82° Sterling, VA: 81° (old record: 78°, 2004) Trenton: 81° (old record: 79°, 1910 and 1921) Washington, DC: 84° Westhampton: 72° (old record: 67°, 1954) White Plains: 80° (old record: 76°, 1963) Wilmington, DE: 84° (old record: 77°, 1921) Tomorrow will be cooler but still warm for the season. The ongoing sustained period warmer than normal readings will continue through the end of March. In contrast, April could start out on the cold side. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.57 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.347 today. On March 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.394 (RMM). The March 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.483 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.2° (2.7° above normal).

Central Park reached 80 in March for the first time since March 31, 1998.

1 pm: JFK: 59 ° LGA: 71 ° NYC: 77 ° (new daily record) EWR: 80 ° (new daily record)

That surpasses the daily record of 73° from 1986.

There was a big difference between LGA (55°) and EWR (69°) at 11 am.

Morning thoughts... A day of near record and record high temperatures is in store. Today will become partly to mostly sunny, windy, and very warm. Winds could gust past 40 mph during the afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 70s in most of the region. Some areas could approach or reach 80°. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 76° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 80° Daily records include: Allentown: 74°, 1963 Bridgeport: 70°, 1954 Islip: 65°, 1976 New York City-JFK: 67°, 1954 New York City-LGA: 72°, 1943 New York City-NYC: 76°, 1922 Newark: 73°, 1943 and 1986 Philadelphia: 80°, 1921 Poughkeepsie: 75°, 1949 and 1963 Westhampton: 67°, 1954 White Plains: 76°, 1963 A cooler weekend will follow.

Clouds and fog broke in parts of the region today sending temperatures into the middle and upper 60s. Other parts of the region remained locked in clouds and fog with temperatures being held to near 60°. Where there was sunshine on Long Island, as well as parts of northern New England and Quebec, daily record high temperatures were set. Records included: Burlington: 73° (old record: 68°, 1987 and 1996) Islip: 67° (old record: 66°, 1987) Montreal: 69° (old record: 62°, 1996) Quebec City: 54° (old record: 50°, 2010) Rivière-du-Loup, QC: 56° (old record: 45°, 2010) Sherbrooke, QC: 71° (old record: 51°, 2009) Trois-Rivières, QC: 58° (old record: 52°, 2010) Westhampton, NY: 66° (old record: 59°, 2017) Tomorrow will likely be the warmest day so far this year. Daily high temperature records could be approached or broken. Highs in the region will reach the lower to middle 70s with some upper 70s in places. Some showers and even thundershowers are possible. A sustained period of above to much above normal temperatures remains underway. In general, above normal temperatures will persist through the end of March. Any cool shots will likely be modest and brief. Some of the guidance suggests that a cold shot and at least some snow could affect northern New England near the end of March. April could start out on the cool side. However, historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +8.28 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.042 today. On March 23 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.484 (RMM). The March 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.277 (RMM). The 31° temperature recorded at Central Park on March 19 was likely New York City's last freeze of 2020-21 based on a combination of the latest ensemble guidance and the diminishing frequency of April freezes. However, some of the recent guidance shows a fairly strong cold shot in early April, so there remains some possibility that the City's last freeze might not have occurred. April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.9° (2.4° above normal).

Live webcam from Iceland: https://www.ruv.is/frett/2021/03/20/beint-vefstreymi-fra-eldstodvunum

0.69” rain yesterday at JFK. It should break the record tomorrow. The temperature will probably surpass 70 there.