donsutherland1

The temperature reached 93° in Central Park for the third consecutive day. This is the second heat wave this month in Central Park. During the late afternoon, a few widely scattered showers moved through parts of the region. High temperatures elsewhere included: Baltimore: 94° Boston: 95° Burlington: 91° Islip: 95° New York City-JFK: 92° New York City-LGA: 97° New York City-NYC: 93° Newark: 95° Philadelphia: 93° Washington, DC: 94° Somewhat cooler conditions are likely for the remainder of this week. However, readings will likely remain several degrees above normal. Through today, New York City's LaGuardia Airport has a monthly mean temperature of 82.8°. July will likely end with a mean temperature between 82.5°-82.9° there. July 2010, with a mean temperature of 82.8°, is LaGuardia's warmest month on record. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop. The SOI was +3.57. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.575. On July 27, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.540 (RMM). The July 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.755. The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 58 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.0°. Based on the latest guidance, including the EPS weekly forecasts and the CFSv2 monthly forecast, August will likely be warmer than normal across the region. However, August will likely have a smaller warm anomaly than July.

Readings rose into the middle 90s across many parts of the region. At LaGuardia Airport, the morning minimum temperature was 81°. If that figure holds up tonight, that would surpass the daily record high minimum record of 79°, which was set in 1995. LaGuardia Airport would also see 2 consecutive 80° or above daily minimum temperatures for the first time since July 20-21, 2019. 90° Days for Select Cities (through July 27): Albany: 13 (2019: 12 days) Allentown: 15 (2019: 24 days) Baltimore: 32 (2019: 59 days) Boston: 7 (2019: 15 days) Burlington: 17 (2019: 8 days) Harrisburg: 22 (2019: 33 days) Islip: 5 (2019: 8 days) New York City-JFK: 9 (2019: 7 days) New York City-LGA: 21 (2019: 26 days) New York City-NYC: 13 (2019: 15 days) Newark: 19 (2019: 28 days) Philadelphia: 23 (2019: 35 days) Washington, DC: 34 (2019: 62 days) New York City-Newark Average: 16 (2019: 19 days) ...Expected: 16 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Tomorrow could again see the temperature rise into the middle and perhaps upper 90s across the region. Strong thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon or evening. Somewhat cooler conditions should follow, but readings will likely remain several degrees above normal. Through today, New York City's LaGuardia Airport has a monthly mean temperature of 82.5°. July will likely end with a mean temperature between 82.4°-82.8° there. That would make July 2020 that station's second warmest month on record. July 2010, with a mean temperature of 82.8°, is LaGuardia's warmest month on record. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop. The SOI was +1.11. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.941. On July 26, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.765 (RMM). The July 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.950. The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 57 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.9°. The probability of an 80° mean temperature in July remains near 50%. Based on the latest guidance, including the EPS weekly forecasts and the CFSv2 monthly forecast, August will likely be warmer than normal across the region. However, August will likely have a smaller warm anomaly than July. Finally, based on historic data and the current Arctic sea ice extent figure, it is very likely that the 2020 minimum extent will come out under 4.0 million square kilometers for the second consecutive year and only the third time on record. There is an implied 50% probability of a minimum extent figure under 3.5 million square kilometers. There is an implied 35% probability that 2020 will set a new record low minimum extent figure.

It’s the heart of NYC’s heat island. Even during night hours when there is little or no flight activity, it is often the warmest station in the City during summer.

Wonderful colors.

That would be cruel.

"Stuck Pattern": The MJO has now been bottled up in Phases 1 and 2 for 56 consecutive days. Here's the latest 40-day chart:

Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures rose into the lower 90s across much of the region. A few locations reached the middle 90s. At LaGuardia Airport, the morning minimum temperature was 80°. If that figure holds up tonight, that would surpass the daily record high minimum record of 78°, which was set in 1995. Tomorrow and perhaps Tuesday, temperatures could rise in the middle and upper 90s across the region. Some locations from Washington, DC to New York City's LaGuardia Airport could approach or reach 100°. Somewhat cooler conditions should follow, but readings will likely remain several degrees above normal. Through today, New York City's LaGuardia Airport has a monthly mean temperature of 82.3°. July will likely end with a mean temperature between 82.3°-82.7° there. That would make July 2020 that station's second warmest month on record. July 2010, with a mean temperature of 82.8°, is LaGuardia's warmest month on record. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop. The SOI was not available today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.766. On July 25, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.963 (RMM). The July 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.852. The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 56 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.8°. The probability of an 80° mean temperature in July remains near 50%. Based on the latest guidance, including the EPS weekly forecasts and the CFSv2 monthly forecast, August will likely be warmer than normal across the region. However, August will likely have a smaller warm anomaly than July. Finally, Arctic sea ice extent fell to 5.995 million square kilometers yesterday. That is the earliest date on record on which Arctic sea ice extent was less than 6 million square kilometers. The previous record was set on July 30, 2019 when Arctic sea ice extent fell to 5.998 million square kilometers.

Morning low of 80 degrees at LGA. If that winds up the daily minimum temperature, it will surpass the existing record high minimum of 78 degrees, which was set in 1995.

Today, Arctic sea ice extent was 5,994,562 square kilometers (JAXA). That is the earliest date on record on which Arctic sea ice extent fell below 6 million square kilometers. The previous record was set just last year on July 30, with a figure of 5,997,752 square kilometers.

Under abundant sunshine, the temperature rose into the upper 80s in much of the northern Middle Atlantic region. New York City's LaGuardia Airport where the mercury reached 92° was a local hot spot. 90° Days for Select Cities (through July 25): Albany: 12 (2019: 12 days) Allentown: 13 (2019: 24 days) Baltimore: 30 (2019: 59 days) Boston: 5 (2019: 15 days) Burlington: 15 (2019: 8 days) Harrisburg: 20 (2019: 33 days) Islip: 3 (2019: 8 days) New York City-JFK: 7 (2019: 7 days) New York City-LGA: 19 (2019: 26 days) New York City-NYC: 11 (2019: 15 days) Newark: 17 (2019: 28 days) Philadelphia: 21 (2019: 35 days) Washington, DC: 32 (2019: 62 days) New York City-Newark Average: 14 (2019: 19 days) ...Expected: 14 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Farther south, temperatures topped out in the lower 90s in Baltimore and Washington, DC. Tomorrow readings will rise into the lower and middle 90s throughout the region. The potential exists for parts of the region to experience their warmest readings this summer when the upcoming heat wave crests on Monday and Tuesday. Somewhat cooler conditions should follow, but readings will likely remain several degrees above normal. Through today, New York City's LaGuardia Airport has a monthly mean temperature of 82.1°. July will likely end with a mean temperature between 82.2°-82.6° there. That would be that station's second warmest month on record. July 2010, with a mean temperature of 82.8°, was LaGuardia's warmest month on record. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop. The SOI was not available today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.461. On July 24, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.859 (RMM). The July 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.914. The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 55 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.8°. The probability of an 80° mean temperature in July remains near 50%.

There’s little doubt that climate change is having an impact. At the New York Botanical Garden, a growing assortment of plants remain in bloom deeper into autumn and blossoms increasingly break out in February. Frogs are also making earlier appearances.

Approaching La Niña winters are often preceded by a warm September and sometimes a warm October.

Heat will begin to rebuild across the region starting tomorrow. The potential exists for parts of the region to experience their warmest readings this summer early next week. 90° Days for Select Cities (through July 24): Albany: 12 (2019: 12 days) Allentown: 13 (2019: 24 days) Baltimore: 29 (2019: 59 days) Boston: 5 (2019: 15 days) Burlington: 15 (2019: 8 days) Harrisburg: 19 (2019: 33 days) Islip: 3 (2019: 8 days) New York City-JFK: 7 (2019: 7 days) New York City-LGA: 18 (2019: 26 days) New York City-NYC: 11 (2019: 15 days) Newark: 16 (2019: 28 days) Philadelphia: 21 (2019: 35 days) Washington, DC: 31 (2019: 62 days) New York City-Newark Average: 13 (2019: 19 days) ...Expected: 13 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop. The SOI was +20.74. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.237. On July 23, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.913 (RMM). The July 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.820. The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 54 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.8°. The probability of an 80° mean temperature in July remains near 50%.

Aside from a possible 100 degree reading at LGA, I don’t think either JFK or NYC will reach 100. Middle and upper 90s seems more likely there.

LGA will likely have an 80 degree average. Central Park has been at a near 50% probability. A lot will depend on the intensity of the coming heat for the Sunday-Tuesday period. I suspect that there will be an 80 degree minimum temperature during that period, possibly Monday.

Showers moved through the Bronx this morning. They blew up into strong thunderstorms as they pressed southward. The afternoon was mainly cloudy with temperatures in the 70s. The New York Botanical Garden reopened on July 21. The Conservatory is closed. Dining is limited to outdoor dining. Paths are marked with arrows to promote social distancing. Nevertheless, a number of people took off their masks to sniff the sunflowers. Below are some of the flowers at the Garden:

Absolutely. Such costs will likely continue to rise, as sea-level rise flooding from melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica is continuing to increase. The NOAA’s most recent report: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/Techrpt_092_2019_State_of_US_High_Tide_Flooding_with_a_2020_Outlook_30June2020.pdf

Overnight, parts of the region will see some showers and thundershowers. Tomorrow will be similar to today with clouds, some sunshine, and additional showers and thundershowers. This weekend, heat will rebuild across the area. The potential exists for early next week to see the warmest readings this summer in parts of the region. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop. The SOI was +16.00. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.829. On July 22, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.820 (RMM). The July 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.608. The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 53 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.8°. The probability of an 80° mean temperature in July remains near 50%.

This afternoon, the temperature reached 92° in Central Park. That was the fifth consecutive 90° or warmer day in Central Park, which is the longest heat wave there since August 11-15, 2016 when the mercury also reached 90° or above on five consecutive days. Strong thunderstorms moved through parts of area this evening. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below. The SOI was +13.54. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.506. On July 21, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.615 (RMM). The July 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.469. The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 52 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.8°. The probability of an 80° mean temperature in July has increased in recent days to near 50%.

For about a week, that site also had not updated. So far, at least as far as NYC is concerned, the NBE has been running about 3 degrees warmer than the MEX for high temperatures and about a degree warmer than the MEX for low temperatures. For today, the MEX showed a maximum temperature of 88 at NYC while the NBE had 91.

Today was another very warm day with highs again reaching the 90s in many parts of the region. However, readings in the northern Middle Atlantic region and southern New England area were somewhat cooler than those of yesterday. Tomorrow will likely be a similar day. Some locations could pick up a shower or even thundershower. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below. The SOI was +14.71. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.370. On July 20, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.469 (RMM). The July 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.327. The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 51 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.8°. The probability of an 80° mean temperature in July has increased in recent days to near 50%.

Today was another scorcher in many parts of the region. High temperatures included: Allentown: 93° Baltimore: 100° Boston: 93° Burlington: 91° Harrisburg: 98° Hartford: 96° Islip: 93 New York City-JFK: 96° New York City-LGA: 97° (morning low temperature: 84°) New York City-NYC: 93° Newark: 96° Philadelphia: 96° Washington, DC: 99° With its third consecutive 90° day, New York City's Central Park recorded its first heat wave of summer 2020. 90° Days for Select Cities (through July 20): Albany: 12 (2019: 12 days) Allentown: 11 (2019: 24 days) Baltimore: 26 (2019: 59 days) Boston: 4 (2019: 15 days) Burlington: 15 (2019: 8 days) Harrisburg: 16 (2019: 33 days) Islip: 2 (2019: 8 days) New York City-JFK: 5 (2019: 7 days) New York City-LGA: 15 (2019: 26 days) New York City-NYC: 9 (2019: 15 days) Newark: 13 (2019: 27 days) Philadelphia: 18 (2019: 35 days) Washington, DC: 28 (2019: 62 days) New York City-Newark Average: 11 (2019: 19 days) ...Expected: 10 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Starting tomorrow, the excessive heat will begin to ease. Nevertheless, warmer than normal conditions will persist. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below. The SOI was +4.12. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.962. On July 19, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.327 (RMM). The July 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.224. The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 50 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.7°. The probability of an 80° mean temperature in July has increased in recent days to just under 50%.

In parts of the region, today was the hottest day so far this season. High temperatures included: Albany: 93° Baltimore: 100° Boston: 95° Burlington: 95° Harrisburg: 100° Hartford: 99° New York City: 94° Newark: 96° Philadelphia: 95° Washington, DC: 99° 90° Days for Select Cities (through July 19): Albany: 11 (2019: 12 days) Allentown: 10 (2019: 24 days) Baltimore: 25 (2019: 59 days) Boston: 3 (2019: 15 days) Burlington: 14 (2019: 8 days) Harrisburg: 15 (2019: 33 days) Islip: 1 (2019: 8 days) New York City-JFK: 4 (2019: 7 days) New York City-LGA: 14 (2019: 26 days) New York City-NYC: 8 (2019: 15 days) Newark: 12 (2019: 27 days) Philadelphia: 17 (2019: 35 days) Washington, DC: 27 (2019: 62 days) New York City-Newark Average: 10 (2019: 19 days) ...Expected: 9 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Tomorrow will again see temperatures reach the middle and upper 90s in parts of the region. Areas running from central Pennsylvania to Washington, DC could again see the temperature reach or even exceed 100° in some locations. Afterward, the excessive heat will ease, but warmer than normal conditions will persist. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below. The SOI was -1.79. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.103. On July 18, the MJO was in Phase 1at an amplitude of 1.231 (RMM). The July 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.073. The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 49 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.5°. Finally, on July 18, Arctic sea ice extent was 6.551 million square kilometers (JAXA). That was the lowest figure on record for July 18. The previous record was 7.059 million square kilometers, which was set in 2011.

Through 2 pm, Baltimore’s high temperature today is 100 degrees. The daily record is 103 degrees, which was set in 1930.

The temperature soared into the 90s across much of the region today. The South Shore of Long Island and Connecticut were exceptions. Tomorrow will be even hotter. Temperatures will likely approach or exceed 100° in the Baltimore-Washington region. 90° Days for Select Cities (through July 18): Albany: 10 (2019: 12 days) Allentown: 9 (2019: 24 days) Baltimore: 24 (2019: 59 days) Boston: 2 (2019: 15 days) Burlington: 13 (2019: 8 days) Harrisburg: 14 (2019: 33 days) Islip: 1 (2019: 8 days) New York City-JFK: 4 (2019: 7 days) New York City-LGA: 13 (2019: 26 days) New York City-NYC: 7 (2019: 15 days) Newark: 11 (2019: 27 days) Philadelphia: 16 (2019: 35 days) Washington, DC: 26 (2019: 62 days) New York City-Newark Average: 9 (2019: 19 days) ...Expected: 9 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below. The SOI was -2.65. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.835. On July 17, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.078 (RMM). The July 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.181. The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 48 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.4°.