donsutherland1

Clouds broke for sunshine today and temperatures soared into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Tomorrow will be more unsettled. A period of rain is likely tomorrow. There could also be some thunder. Tomorrow could be quite warm south of the warm front with temperatures rising well into the 70s in Philadelphia. North of the front, temperatures could remain locked in the 50s. An unseasonably cold air mass will move into the Plains States next week and then into the Southeast toward or by the following weekend. The position of the block will keep the coldest air away from the region. As a result, temperatures will likely continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above. Up north, excessive warmth will continue in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible through tomorrow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.80 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.038 today. On April 9 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.076 (RMM). The April 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.983 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.5° (1.5° above normal).

It became partly sunny and quite warm this afternoon. The temperature topped out at 70° in New York City. Many more trees have exploded into full bloom in the New York Botanical Garden.

There may be some breaks in the clouds. I had a short period of sunshine.

Morning thoughts... At 7:48, a developing line of showers stretched from south of Breezy Point to just north of Bedford Hills. That line of showers will head eastward across Long Island and Connecticut over the next hour. Overall, today will be partly to mostly cloudy and milder than yesterday. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania, where there should be somewhat more sunshine, will likely see temperatures top out in the lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 66° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 72° A period of rain is likely tonight and tomorrow.

Today was partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures were mainly in the upper 50s in much of the region. Meanwhile, across northern New England, upstate New York, and Quebec, near record and record warm temperatures were recorded. Today's high temperatures included: Bangor: 71° (old record: 68°, 1945) Burlington: 76° (tied record set in 1945) Caribou: 69° Concord: 72° Montreal: 76° (old record: 74°, 1945) Plattsburgh, NY: 73° (old record: 67°, 1981 and 2002) Quebec City: 64° (old record: 53°, 1993) Saranac Lake, NY: 72° Sept-Îles, QC: 56° (old record: 54°, 1961) Sherbrooke, QC: 73° (old record: 63°, 2008) Trois-Rivières, QC: 72° (old record: 54°, 2002) A warm front will try to push across the region this weekend. However, it will likely stall within 50 miles of New York City and Newark. As a result, New York City and Newark will likely see mainly cloudy skies this weekend, along with a period of rain. Sunday could be quite warm south of the warm front with temperatures rising well into the 70s in Philadelphia. North of the front, temperatures could remain locked in the 50s. A thundershower cannot be ruled out. An unseasonably cold air mass will move into the Plains States next week and then into the Southeast toward or by the following weekend. The position of the block will keep the coldest air away from the region. As a result, temperatures will likely continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Up north, excessive warmth will continue in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible through Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.59 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.223 today. On April 7 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.892 (RMM). The April 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.456 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.5° (1.5° above normal).

There are some areas that are partly to mostly sunny, but the satellite imagery and guidance aren’t very encouraging especially for later this afternoon and onward.

Morning thoughts... It will be partly to mostly cloudy and cooler today. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 61° Philadelphia: 65° Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy. There could be a shower. A period of rain is likely during Saturday night or Sunday.

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s. A period of rain is possible across the region during the weekend. Sunday could be quite mild. A thundershower cannot be ruled out. An unseasonably cold air mass will move into the Plains States next week and then into the Southeast toward or by the following weekend. The position of the block will keep the coldest air away from the region. As a result, temperatures will likely continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Up north, excessive warmth will continue in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible through Saturday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +0.050 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.426 today. On April 6 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.454 (RMM). The April 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.352 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.7° (1.7° above normal).

It’s possible that the slowing thermohaline circulation might be having some impact.

Morning thoughts... It will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 71° Tomorrow will be party to mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 50s and lower 60s. A period of rain is likely during the weekend.

At the onset, some parts of the area saw some rain. Banding also played a role in the snowfall accumulations.

Tomorrow will be another mainly fair and mild day. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 60s across the region. Some areas could again reach 70°. Afterward, it will become somewhat cooler. Then, temperatures could be confined mainly to the 50s in much of the region. Based on the latest guidance, no significant precipitation is likely into the weekend. Some rain is possible this weekend followed by near seasonable temperatures. Up north, excessive warmth will develop in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible from tomorrow through Saturday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was -7.72 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.236 today. On April 5 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.353 (RMM). The April 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.422 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.5° (1.5° above normal).

The power of the sea breeze: 5 pm: JFK: 59 degrees Central Park: 72 degrees

During the April 1982 blizzard, New York City (JFK: 8.0”; LGA” 8.2”; NYC: 9.6”) did not see any of its major stations quite reach 10”. Outside the City, Newark picked up 12.8” and Islip received 16.0”. During the May 1977 snowfall, New York City saw a trace of snow. Some parts of New York State picked up 10” or more of snow e.g., Tannersville received 13.0” of snow.

Morning thoughts... It will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 71° Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and still mild. It could turn somewhat cooler during the latter part of the week and weekend. Temperatures could then be confined mainly to the upper 50s with some lower 60s.

On this date in 1982, a blizzard brought widespread heavy snow to New York City into New England. This time around, springlike warmth prevailed. As a result of today's warmth, Central Park now has a monthly anomaly of 0.5° above normal. New York City finished winter 2020-21 with 38.6" snow. That was New York City's 39th highest seasonal figure on record. Over the past 30 winters, New York City has averaged 30.3" of snow. Newark's final snowfall figure of 45.7" ranked 14th highest. Over the past 30 winters, Newark has averaged 32.4" of snow. Philadelphia's final snowfall amount of 23.9" ranked as that city's 49th highest figure on record. Over the past 30 winters, Philadelphia has averaged 23.4" of snow. In the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, temperatures will likely top out in the 60s through Thursday. Some areas could again reach 70°. Afterward, it will become somewhat cooler. Then, temperatures could be confined mainly to the 50s in much of the region. Based on the latest guidance, no significant precipitation is likely into the weekend. Up north, excessive warmth will develop in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible from tomorrow through Saturday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was -0.58 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.301 today. On April 4 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.419 (RMM). The April 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.562 (RMM).

Central Park got to 32. The 47-degree figure was an error and has since been corrected.

Morning thoughts... It will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 69° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 71° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and continued warm. The latter part of the week will turn somewhat cooler with readings mainly in the upper 50s and some lower 60s.

Today saw temperatures rise into the upper 60s and even the lower 70s in some parts of the region. Tomorrow will be a similar day. Meanwhile, excessive warmth will shift into northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible from Wednesday through Saturday. In the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, temperatures will likely top out in the 60s through Thursday. Afterward, it will become somewhat cooler. Then, temperatures could be confined mainly to the 50s in much of the region. Based on the latest guidance, no significant precipitation is likely into the weekend. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. That warmer scenario remains the base case despite the current strong cold shot. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +12.76 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.454 today. On April 3 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.501 (RMM). The April 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.477 (RMM).

Central Park picked up 0.8”.

Morning thoughts... It will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 67° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 69° Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and continued warm.

Clouds gave way to sunshine and the temperature rose into the 60s in much of the region this afternoon. Tomorrow will be fair and continued mild. Meanwhile, near record and record warm temperatures prevailed from the Southwest to the Northern Plains. Daily record high temperatures included: Bismarck: 83° (old record: 82°, 1921) Casper: 74° (tied record set in 1943) Cheyenne: 75° (old record: 72°, 1889) Colorado Springs, CO: 79° (old record: 77°, 1959 and 1967) Denver: 80° (old record: 76°, 1959 and 1967) Huron, SD: 83° (tied record set in 1929) La Crosse, WI: 80° (tied record set in 1910 and tied in 1929) Las Vegas: 91° (tied record set in 1943 and tied in 1959 and 1961) Phoenix: 98° (tied record set in 1961) Rochester, MN: 80° (old record: 77°, 1929 and 1942) Tucson: 96° (old record: 94°, 1943) Phoenix has had 29 days since 1896 when the temperature fell below 40° in April. The last such date occurred on April 11, 1979 when the mercury fell to 39°. Phoenix has never had an April freeze. At Tucson, there have been 18 days on which the temperature fell to or below freezing in April since 1895. The last such date was April 4, 1945 when the temperature dipped to a monthly record low of 27°. Tomorrow will be another very warm day from the Southwest to the Northern Plains States. Afterward, the excessive warmth will shift into northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible from Wednesday through Saturday. In the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, temperatures will likely top out in the 60s through Thursday. Afterward, it will become somewhat cooler. Then, temperatures could be confined mainly to the 50s in much of the region. Based on the latest guidance, no significant precipitation is likely into the weekend. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. That warmer scenario remains the base case despite the current strong cold shot. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +4.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.454 today. On April 2 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.477 (RMM). The April 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.397 (RMM).

A day later. JFK’s latest measurable snowfall occurred on April 19, 1983.

The latest freeze at Charleston occurred on April 20, 1983 when the temperature fell to 31°.

The record is 5 consecutive days. The record was set from April 2 through April 6, 1881.