donsutherland1

The record is 5 consecutive days. The record was set from April 2 through April 6, 1881.

Morning thoughts... Early morning clouds will give way to sunshine. The afternoon will be mostly sunny and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 63° Newark: 64° Philadelphia: 67° Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and mild. Out West, there is a chance that the temperature could make a run at 100° at Phoenix for the first time this year today. Should the temperature reach the century mark, that would be the 3rd earliest such temperature on record for Phoenix.

The region started with readings at or below freezing for a second consecutive day. However, the strengthening April sun boosted temperatures into the 50s in much of the region during the afternoon. Elsewhere, daily record low temperatures were set or tied. Daily records included: Allentown: 20° (tied record set in 1954) Charleston, SC: 31° (old record: 33°, 1962) Charlotte: 26° (old record: 28°, 1972) Columbia, SC: 28° (tied record set 1992) Jacksonville: 36° (old record: 39°, 1962) Savannah: 32° (old record: 33°, 1966) Sherbrooke, QC: 9° (old record: 28°, 2008) Wilmington, NC: 30° (old record: 31°, 1992) Meanwhile, in the Southwest, Phoenix reached a record-tying high temperature of 97° today. That warming trend will tomorrow into early next week. Temperatures will likely return to the 60s in parts of the Middle Atlantic region tomorrow and then in much of the region on Monday. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. That warmer scenario remains the base case despite the current strong cold shot. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was -0.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.533 today. On April 1 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.398 (RMM). The March 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.297 (RMM).

Under an almost cloudless sky, the temperature rose into the lower 50s following the second consecutive morning with freezing temperatures. Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden:

It is increasingly uncommon. The last time it happened was April 9, 2003. Since 1950, there have been only 9 such dates: April 8, 1956 April 4, 1975 April 7, 1982 April 9, 1982 April 5, 1995 April 7, 2003 April 8, 2003 April 9, 2003 April 2, 2021

Morning thoughts... Across the region, temperatures again started at or below freezing. At Allentown, the low temperature of 20° tied the daily record set in 1954. Saranac Lake reported a near record low of just 2°. The cold start will give way to a warmer afternoon. Today will be mostly sunny and milder. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 54° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 55° The warming trend will continue through the weekend. Out West, there is a chance that the temperature could make a run at 100° at Phoenix for the first time this year tomorrow. Should the temperature reach the century mark, that would be the 3rd earliest such temperature on record for Phoenix.

Basically, air flows toward the area of low pressure. As that happens, air rises leading to condensation and then precipitation. Here’s a more detailed summary: https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/how-weather-works/highs-and-lows-air-pressure

Earlier today, many parts of the region saw their coldest April temperatures in nearly five years. Low temperatures included: Albany: 24° Allentown: 24° Atlantic City: 30° Baltimore: 30° Binghamton: 17° (old record: 19°, 2003) Boston: 29° Bridgeport: 29° Harrisburg: 29° Hartford: 27° Islip: 31° New York City-JFK: 29° New York City-LGA: 29° (old record: 32°, 2018) New York City-NYC: 28° (coldest April temperature since April 5, 2016) Newark: 28° (tied record set in 1964; coldest April temperature since April 6, 2016) Philadelphia: 29° (coldest April temperature since April 11, 2018) Providence: 31° Poughkeepsie: 27° Scranton: 23° Trenton: 27° Washington, DC: 31° (first April freeze since April 10, 2016) Wilmington, DE: 29° Worcester: 24° Today was also the first April day since April 8, 1997 when the temperature fell below 30° in both New York City and Philadelphia on the same date. Since 1980, such days have only occurred in 1982, 1985, 1995, and 1997. The mean highest temperature during the April 16-30 period for such cases was 80° in New York City and 81° in Philadelphia. 1997 had the lowest maximum temperature during the second half of April with 73° figures in both cities. 1985 had the highest such temperatures with a high of 88° in New York City and 90° in Philadelphia. New York City had a daily high temperature of just 39°. The last time New York City had an April maximum temperature below 40° was April 9, 2003 when the temperature topped out at 39°. After another frosty night, tomorrow will see temperatures warm into the upper 40s and lower 50s during the afternoon. That warming trend will continue this weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will likely return to the 60s in the northern Middle Atlantic region by Sunday or Monday. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. That warmer scenario remains the base case despite the current strong cold shot. One thing to watch for would be a possible further decline in the AO during the second half of April. Since 1950, there were 28 cases where the AO averaged between -0.999 and -0.001 during the April 1-15 period, as appears possible in April 2021 based on the most recent guidance. In the subset of cases where the AO average was even lower during the second half of April, the mean temperature during that time was 57.0°. 60% of those cases saw a mean temperature of 56.0° or above during April 16-30. In contrast, the subset that saw the AO rise from the April 1-15 average saw the temperature average 54.7°. 78% of those cases had a mean temperature of less than 56.0°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was -9.59 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.787 today. On March 31 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.298 (RMM). The March 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.434 (RMM).

Atlanta’s geography is conducive to allowing cold shots to move into the area without the kind of moderation that sometimes occurs in the New York City area.

With a low temperature of 31°, Washington, DC experienced its first April freeze since April 10, 2016 when the temperature also fell to 31°.

Morning thoughts... Low temperatures in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia were 28°, 28°, and 29° respectively. For Central Park, that as the coldest April temperature since April 5, 2016 when the temperature fell to 26°. For Newark, it was the coldest April temperature since April 6, 2016 when the temperature was 27°. For Philadelphia, it was the coldest April temperature since April 11, 2018 when the mercury dipped to 29°. At Binghamton, the temperature fell to 17°. That broke the daily record of 19°, which was set in 2003. Today will be variably cloudy and unseasonably cold. A stray rain or snow shower cannot be ruled out during the afternoon, especially north and west of New York City. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 41° Newark: 43° Philadelphia: 45° Tomorrow will start off with unseasonably cold temperatures, but a warmer afternoon is likely. The warming trend will continue through the weekend.

As a strong cold front moved eastward, Binghamton picked up 2.7" snow. That broke the daily record of 1.4", which was set in 1991. It also raised that city's seasonal snowfall to 102.9", which ranks as 17th highest. At 8 pm, readings in and around Newark and New York City were in the lower and middle 40s. Colder air continued to press into the region. Overnight, New York City's Central Park will likely see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018. Both the MOS and NBM are in good agreement about such a freeze. In an area extending from the Gulf States to the Southeast, some near record and record low temperatures are possible tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy and unseasonably cold. The temperature will struggle to reach the lower 40s. Moderation will occur during the weekend. Temperatures will likely return to the 60s in the northern Middle Atlantic region by Sunday or Monday. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. That warmer scenario remains the base case. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was -4.83 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.015 today. On March 31 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.301 (RMM). The March 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.434 (RMM).

Morning thoughts... Light rain will end this morning. The clouds will gradually give break during the afternoon. It will become breezy. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s across much of the region this afternoon before falling toward evening. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 50° Newark: 52° Philadelphia: 52° Tomorrow will be partly sunny, blustery and unseasonably cold. 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 53.7° Average temperature: 54.2° Average error: 2.1° Newark: Average daily forecast: 55.0° Average temperature: 55.3° Average error: 2.3° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 57.3° Average temperature: 57.2° Average error: 1.9°

March 2021 finished with a mean temperature of 45.8° in New York City. That was 3.3° above normal and ranked March 2021 as the 13th warmest March on record. A brief shot of much cooler air is now on its way. As a strong cold front advances eastward and a storm moves northward along the front, there will be periods of rain overnight. Across central and upstate New York and parts of Quebec, the rain will change to accumulating snow. There a moderate to significant accumulation is possible. Following the frontal passage, April will start out on the cold side. Despite a return of sunshine tomorrow, it will be blustery and cold with highs struggling to get out of the 40s. On Friday morning, New York City's Central Park could see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018. In an area extending from the Gulf States to the Southeast, some near record and record low temperatures are possible that morning. Moderation will occur during the weekend. Temperatures will likely return to the 60s in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. That warmer scenario remains the base case. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was -6.75 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.512 today. On March 29 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.397 (RMM). The March 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.685 (RMM).

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.4 1.7 1.6 3.6 0.2 0.3 2.7 1.0 -0.8

Morning thoughts... Rain will arrive today as a strong cold front approaches and moves across the region. A storm will track northward along that front, but pass to the north and west of the New York City area. An area running from upstate New York up the St. Lawrence River in Quebec could pick up a moderate to significant snowfall. Following the frontal passage, an unseasonably cold air mass will move into the East for the first two days of April. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 68° Tomorrow will be blustery and noticeably colder. On Friday morning, New York City could see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018 when the temperature fell to. 32°. Some near record to record low temperatures are possible on Friday in the Gulf States and Southeast.

March will conclude on a mild note tomorrow. Temperatures will rise into the lower 60s across the region. However, rain will develop during the afternoon as a strong cold front advances eastward. Across central and upstate New York and parts of Quebec, the rain will change to accumulating snow. There a moderate to significant accumulation is possible. April will start out on the side. On Friday morning, New York City's Central Park could see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018. In an area extending from the Gulf States to the Southeast, some near record and record low temperatures are possible that morning. Moderation will occur during the weekend. Temperatures will likely return to the 60s in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. That warmer scenario remains the base case. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +1.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.852 today. On March 28 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.684 (RMM). The March 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.424 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.7° (3.2° above normal).

Yes. There was no freeze during the storm. April 8-9, 2018 both had lows of 32 degrees.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 65° Philadelphia: 68° Rain will arrive late tomorrow as a strong cold front approaches and moves across the region. An area running from upstate New York up the St. Lawrence River in Quebec could pick up a moderate to significant snowfall. Following the frontal passage, an unseasonably cold air mass will move into the East for the first two days of April. New York City could see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018 when the temperature fell to. 32°. Some near record to record low temperatures are possible on Friday in the Gulf States and Southeast.

Tomorrow will be fair and a bit milder. Overall, the remainder of March will continue to see generally warmer than normal readings. April could start out on the cold side, but moderation should occur later in the first week of the month. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The warmer scenario remains the base case. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +0.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.703 today. On March 27 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.424 (RMM). The March 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.093 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.6° (3.1° above normal).

NYC's highest snowfall with a temperature above freezing occurred on April 2, 2018 when 5.5" snow fell.

In October 2002, the lowest temperature in New York City was 36°, on October 24. Prior to the 32° temperature on October 31, 2020, New York City had not seen an October freeze since October 31, 1988 when the temperature fell to 31°.

Morning thoughts... Clouds will break and it will become partly to mostly sunny. It will also be breezy. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 55° Newark: 56° Philadelphia: 57° Tomorrow will be fair and somewhat milder. A strong cold shot is likely at the start of April.

A cold front will cross the region with some showers and perhaps a thundershower. Afterward, clouds will break and tomorrow should be partly sunny, breezy, and cooler. The remainder of March will continue to see generally warmer than normal readings. As March concludes and April commences, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is forecast to plunge more than 3 sigma from its current value. As recently as 2018, the AO fell from +1.743 to -2.188 during the March 26-April 3 period. There was a strong cold shot and even a snowstorm. A cold shot is more likely than a snowstorm this time around. Overall, April could start out on the cold side. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +3.54 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.927 today. On March 26 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.094 (RMM). The March 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.065 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.5° (3.0° above normal).

Following this morning’s rainfall, thick fog moved across parts of southern Westchester County during the mid-afternoon hours. The fog largely dissipated by late afternoon.