donsutherland1

Temperatures again rose into the upper 70s across much of the region despite more clouds than yesterday. Meanwhile, record heat occurred in parts of Quebec and Maine. Two records included: Caribou: 95° (old record: 90°, 1949 and 1955) Quebec City: 91° (old record: 90°, 2017) More records could fall across this region tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Middle Atlantic region remains on the cusp of a major transition that will lead to sustained warmer than normal conditions. Tomorrow will be partly sunny, warmer, and a little more humid. Initially, as the warmer pattern develops, extreme heat is unlikely. Once it develops, the warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. One or more heatwaves are likely in July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -30.79 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.314. On June 17, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.440 (RMM). The June 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.585. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2°.

CNN reported: Siberia's prolonged period of unusually warm weather is an "alarming sign," according to climate change scientists. Surface temperatures in Siberia were up to 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than average last month, making it the vast Russian region's hottest May since records began in 1979, according to research by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), a program affiliated with the European Commission. Siberia's warmer weather came as the world experienced its hottest May on record, the C3S findings show. According to climate scientist Martin Stendel, the temperature deviation in northwestern Siberia last month would happen only once in 100,000 years if it weren't for climate change. https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/18/europe/siberia-warming-climate-crisis-intl-hnk/index.html

The Middle Atlantic region is now on the cusp of a transition that will likely led to sustained warmer than normal conditions. Tomorrow will see more clouds than today and the humidity will also be higher. Initially, as the warmer pattern develops, extreme heat is unlikely. Once it develops, the warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -22.42 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.286. On June 16, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.584 (RMM). The June 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.407. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°.

Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the middle and upper 70s in much of the area. Temperatures will remain below normal through midweek with delightful sun-filled days, low humidity, and a continued absence of summer-like heat. More clouds are likely Thursday and Friday just ahead of the start of a major pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely. Once it develops, the warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. Through June 16, just 15.37" rain has fallen in New York City. That is 6.96" below normal. As a result of what could be an emerging drought, there is just a 17% implied probability (1971-2019 base period) that New York City will reach 50.00" or more precipitation this year. The last time New York City had less than 50.00" precipitation was 2017 when 45.04" fell. In addition, there is a growing probability that New York City could receive less than 40.00" precipitation this year. The last time that happened was 2012, when just 38.51" precipitation was recorded. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -11.88 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.010. On June 15, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.407 (RMM). The June 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.221. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°.

Temperatures will remain below normal through midweek with delightful sun-filled days, low humidity, and a continued absence of summer-like heat. Late this week or this weekend, a major pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions will likely begin to evolve. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely. The warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -22.42 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.010. On June 14, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.221 (RMM). The June 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.991. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°.

The day started with unseasonably cool temperatures. Low temperatures included: Albany: 43° Allentown: 48° Binghamton: 39° (old record: 41°, 1978) Boston: 53° Bridgeport: 52° Islip: 53° New York City: 54° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 56° Poughkeepsie: 43° (tied record set in 1978 and tied in 1979) Scranton: 44° White Plains: 46° (tied record set in 1979) Temperatures will remain below normal through the middle of this week with delightful sun-filled days, low humidity, and a continued absence of summer-like heat. However, the probability of a major pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions beginning during the closing 10 days of June has continued to increase. Afterward, the warm pattern could lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -8.44 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.010. On June 13, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.997 (RMM). The June 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.889. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°.

With the changes that starting occurring over the Pacific just after the beginning of this month, I don’t think we will escape heat and humidity. Those changes have started a hemispheric pattern change that is evolving. One will probably see a transition toward sustained warmer than normal conditions get underway during the third and fourth weeks this month in this region. Should the emerging drought deepen, there will be the potential for some severe bouts of heat in July and perhaps August.

Tonight will be unseasonably cool. Low temperatures tomorrow morning will range from the lower and middle 50s in New York City and Newark and the 40s in some of their suburbs. Temperatures will likely remain below normal through the middle of next week with delightful sun-filled days, low humidity, and a continued absence of summer-like heat. However, the probability of a major pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions beginning in the third or fourth week of June has increased in recent days. Afterward, the warm pattern could lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was +8.65 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.393. On June 12, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.888 (RMM). The June 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.126. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°.

Another unseasonably cool air mass will move into the region this weekend. Temperatures on Sunday morning could be in the 50s in New York City and Newark and 40s in some of the suburbs. Temperatures will likely remain below normal through the middle of next week. However, the probability of a major pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions beginning in the third or fourth week of June has increased in recent days. Afterward, the warm pattern change could lock in for July, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was +12.72 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.417. On June 11, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.122 (RMM). The June 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.221. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°.

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler than today. Another unseasonably cool air mass will move into the region this weekend. Temperatures on Sunday morning could be in the 50s in New York City and Newark and 40s in some of the suburbs. However, the probability of a major pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions beginning in the third or fourth week of June has increased in recent days. Afterward, the warm pattern change could lock in for July, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was +0.98 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.495. On June 10, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.222 (RMM). The June 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.510. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°.

I agree with respect to something like but perhaps warmer than 1995. If the 11year solar cycle would suggest a very warm summer next year.

Under abundant sunshine, the temperature again rose into the 80s across the region. Somewhat cooler conditions with some showers and thundershowers are likely tomorrow. No excessive heat is likely through at least the first half of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, the probability of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions beginning in the third or fourth week of June has increased in recent days. Afterward, the warm pattern change could lock in for July, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -3.45 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.349. On June 9, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.515 (RMM). The June 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.614. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°.

Temperatures will returned to the 80s across much of the region today with a few 90° temperatures. High temperatures included: Bridgeport: 85°; Islip: 83°; New York City: 87°; Newark: 90°; and, Philadelphia: 88°. Tomorrow will be another warm day with temperatures rising into at least the lower and middle 80s. No excessive heat is likely through at least the first half of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, there are emerging hints of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions perhaps beginning in the third or fourth week of June. Afterward, the pattern change could lock in for July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was +7.31 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.152. On June 8, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.633 (RMM). The June 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.685. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.5°.

Temperatures will return to the 80s across much of the region tomorrow. No excessive heat is likely through at least the first half of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, there are emerging hints of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions perhaps beginning in the third or fourth week of June. Afterward, the pattern change could lock in for July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was +12.37 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.152. On June 7, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.696 (RMM). The June 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.772. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.5°.

Under bright sunshine, a refreshing breeze, and fair weather cumulus clouds, the temperature rose into the 70s today. Tomorrow will again see temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s in the northern Middle Atlantic region. No excessive heat is likely through at least the first two weeks of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, there are emerging hints of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions perhaps beginning in the third or fourth week of June. Afterward, the pattern change could lock in for July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into the end of May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has continued to increase. The SOI was -13.71 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.152. On June 6, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.772 (RMM). The June 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.982. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June month. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East.

Today was the hottest day so far in parts of the region. High temperatures: Allentown: 88° Baltimore: 91° Boston: 89° Bridgeport: 83° Islip: 82° New York City: 86° Newark: 90° Philadelphia: 90° Poughkeepsie: 89° Washington, DC: 91° Somewhat cooler air will overspread the region tonight. Tomorrow and Monday will see temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s in the northern Middle Atlantic region. No excessive heat is likely through at least the first two weeks of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, there are emerging hints of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions perhaps beginning in the third or fourth week of June. Afterward, the pattern change could lock in for July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into the end of May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has continued to increase. The SOI was -38.45 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.466. On June 5, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.984 (RMM). The June 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.826. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June month. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East.

Sunshine will return tomorrow and readings will likely rise well into the 80s. Somewhat cooler air should follow for Sunday and Monday. No excessive heat is likely through at least the first two weeks of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, there are emerging hints of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions perhaps beginning in the third or fourth week of June. Afterward, the pattern change could lock in for July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into the end of May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has continued to increase. The SOI was -46.68 today. That was the lowest SOI figure since February 17, 2017 when the SOI was -51.97. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.662. On June 4, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.842 (RMM). The June 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.772. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June month. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East.

Temperatures soared into the middle and even upper 80s across the region today. Overnight and tomorrow, it will be mainly cloudy and warm with periodic showers and thundershowers. No excessive heat is likely through at least the first two weeks of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, there are emerging hints of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions perhaps beginning in the third or fourth week of June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into the end of May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has continued to increase. The SOI was -33.39 today. That was the lowest figure since November 5, 2019 when the SOI was -34.49. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.855. On June 3, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.778 (RMM). The June 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.841. The MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. With the SOI plunging below -30.00, that could be a catalyst that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period late this month. A similar development occurred last June, as well. Afterward, July and August featured warm anomalies in the East.

Earlier today, a line of powerful thunderstorms tore through the Philadelphia area with wind gusts in excess of 80 mph. A much more tranquil night is in store. In the wake of the storms, several days with widespread high temperatures in the 80s will be likely. Nevertheless, no excessive heat is likely through at least the first ten days of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into the end of May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has continued to increase. The SOI was -16.59 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.900. On June 2, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.843 (RMM). The June 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.872. The MJO has now in in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. In short, this could be an early indication that a summer that will start near normal (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Warmer weather will likely tomorrow. Some showers and thundershowers are likely later tomorrow. At least several days with widespread high temperatures in the 80s will be likely. Nevertheless, no excessive heat is likely through at least the first ten days of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into the end of May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has continued to increase. The SOI was -2.04 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.927. On June 1, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.869 (RMM). The May 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.851.

June began on an unseasonably cool note. Low temperatures included: Allentown: 44° Bridgeport: 46° Islip: 44° New York City: 51° Newark: 51° Philadelphia: 51° Poughkeepsie: 39° White Plains: 42° Warmer weather will likely return by the middle of this week. At least several days with widespread high temperatures in the 80s will be likely. Nevertheless, no excessive heat is likely through at least the first ten days of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into the end of May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has continued to increase. The SOI was +9.63 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.010. On May 31, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.849 (RMM). The May 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.784. June will likely have a temperature anomaly within 1° of normal (some areas on the cool side, others on the warm side) within the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

May 2020 concluded with an estimated mean temperature of 60.3° in New York City. That made this May the coldest May since 2008 when the average temperature was 60.1°. June will start unseasonably cool with a morning temperature in the lower to middle 50s in New York City and 40s in some of the suburbs. Warmer weather should follow this latest cool shot. Late in the first week of June into the start of the second week of June, readings could be in the 80s in at least parts of the region. Nevertheless, no excessive heat is likely through at least the first ten days of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into late May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased. The SOI was +20.01 today. This is the first time the SOI has reached or exceeded +20.00 since August 10, 2019 when the SOI wsa +20.15. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.165. On May 30, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.555 (RMM). The May 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.311. June will likely have a temperature anomaly within 1° of normal (some areas on the cool side, others on the warm side) within the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 -0.3 1.5 1.2 -0.5 101 98 98 96 99 104 97 118 94

Following today's warmth, cooler air will move into the region for a few days. Warmer weather should follow the cool shot. Late in the first week of June into the start of the second week of June, readings could be in the 80s in at least parts of the region. Nevertheless, no excessive heat is likely through at least the ten days of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into late May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased. The SOI was +17.79 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.352. On May 29, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.310 (RMM). The May 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.367. June will likely have a temperature anomaly within 1° of normal (some areas on the cool side, others on the warm side) within the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.3°. That would be the coolest May since 2008 when the monthly temperature was also 60.1°.

Under bright sunshine, the temperature again rose into the 80s in many parts of the region. On a separate note, the goslings have arrived.