donsutherland1

Morning thoughts... A storm will pass to the west of the region. Periods of rain, including some thunderstorms, are likely. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 71° Tomorrow will be fair and cooler. A strong cold shot is likely at the start of April.

Tomorrow mostly cloudy with some showers and possibly thundershowers. It will remain mild for the season. The remainder of March will continue to see generally warmer than normal readings. As March concludes and April commences, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is forecast to plunge more than 3 sigma from its current value. As recently as 2018, the AO fell from +1.743 to -2.188 during the March 26-April 3 period. There was a strong cold shot and even a snowstorm. A cold shot is more likely than a snowstorm this time around. Overall, April could start out on the cold side. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.927 today. On March 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.068 (RMM). The March 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.391 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.4° (2.9° above normal).

Under partly to mostly sunny conditions, the temperature rose to 69° in Central Park. At the New York Botanical Garden, even more flowers have burst into bloom over the past week.

The last time that happened was March 29, 1998. JFK: 82°; LGA: 81°; and, NYC: 81°

Morning thoughts... In the wake of yesterday’s record-breaking warmth, today will be partly sunny and continued warm. However, it will be quite a bit cooler than yesterday. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 66° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 69° Clouds and rain will return for Sunday. A strong cold shot is likely at the start of April.

Temperatures soared to record highs in much of the region today as clouds yielded to sunshine and strong winds. At New York City's Central Park, the temperature reached 80° in March for the first time since March 31, 1998 when the temperature topped out at a sizzling 86°. Today was also just the 16th day on record when the temperature reached or exceeded 80° in Central Park. Records go back to 1869. Today was also the first 80° reading at JFK Airport since March 29, 1998 when the mercury rose to 82°. High temperatures included: Albany: 75° (old record: 74°, 1986) Allentown: 77° (old record: 74°, 1963) Annapolis: 83° Atlantic City: 83° (old record: 71°, 1986 and 2003) Baltimore: 83° Bridgeport: 79° (old record: 70°, 1954) Georgetown, DE: 86° (old record: 78°, 1988 and 2004) Harrisburg: 77° Hartford: 77° (old record: 74°, 1922) Islip: 78° (old record: 65°, 1976) Jacksonville: 90° (old record: 88°, 1965) New Haven: 77° (old record: 67°, 1954) New York City-JFK: 81° (old record: 67°, 1954) New York City-LGA: 82° (old record: 72°, 1943) New York City-NYC: 82° (old record: 76°, 1922) Newark: 84° (old record: 73°, 1986) Philadelphia: 83° (old record: 80°, 1921) Poughkeepsie: 79° (old record: 75°, 1949 and 1963) Richmond: 86° (old record: 85°, 1939) Savannah: 90° (old record: 88°, 1929) Salisbury: 82° Sterling, VA: 81° (old record: 78°, 2004) Trenton: 81° (old record: 79°, 1910 and 1921) Washington, DC: 84° Westhampton: 72° (old record: 67°, 1954) White Plains: 80° (old record: 76°, 1963) Wilmington, DE: 84° (old record: 77°, 1921) Tomorrow will be cooler but still warm for the season. The ongoing sustained period warmer than normal readings will continue through the end of March. In contrast, April could start out on the cold side. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.57 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.347 today. On March 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.394 (RMM). The March 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.483 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.2° (2.7° above normal).

Central Park reached 80 in March for the first time since March 31, 1998.

1 pm: JFK: 59 ° LGA: 71 ° NYC: 77 ° (new daily record) EWR: 80 ° (new daily record)

That surpasses the daily record of 73° from 1986.

There was a big difference between LGA (55°) and EWR (69°) at 11 am.

Morning thoughts... A day of near record and record high temperatures is in store. Today will become partly to mostly sunny, windy, and very warm. Winds could gust past 40 mph during the afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 70s in most of the region. Some areas could approach or reach 80°. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 76° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 80° Daily records include: Allentown: 74°, 1963 Bridgeport: 70°, 1954 Islip: 65°, 1976 New York City-JFK: 67°, 1954 New York City-LGA: 72°, 1943 New York City-NYC: 76°, 1922 Newark: 73°, 1943 and 1986 Philadelphia: 80°, 1921 Poughkeepsie: 75°, 1949 and 1963 Westhampton: 67°, 1954 White Plains: 76°, 1963 A cooler weekend will follow.

Clouds and fog broke in parts of the region today sending temperatures into the middle and upper 60s. Other parts of the region remained locked in clouds and fog with temperatures being held to near 60°. Where there was sunshine on Long Island, as well as parts of northern New England and Quebec, daily record high temperatures were set. Records included: Burlington: 73° (old record: 68°, 1987 and 1996) Islip: 67° (old record: 66°, 1987) Montreal: 69° (old record: 62°, 1996) Quebec City: 54° (old record: 50°, 2010) Rivière-du-Loup, QC: 56° (old record: 45°, 2010) Sherbrooke, QC: 71° (old record: 51°, 2009) Trois-Rivières, QC: 58° (old record: 52°, 2010) Westhampton, NY: 66° (old record: 59°, 2017) Tomorrow will likely be the warmest day so far this year. Daily high temperature records could be approached or broken. Highs in the region will reach the lower to middle 70s with some upper 70s in places. Some showers and even thundershowers are possible. A sustained period of above to much above normal temperatures remains underway. In general, above normal temperatures will persist through the end of March. Any cool shots will likely be modest and brief. Some of the guidance suggests that a cold shot and at least some snow could affect northern New England near the end of March. April could start out on the cool side. However, historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +8.28 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.042 today. On March 23 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.484 (RMM). The March 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.277 (RMM). The 31° temperature recorded at Central Park on March 19 was likely New York City's last freeze of 2020-21 based on a combination of the latest ensemble guidance and the diminishing frequency of April freezes. However, some of the recent guidance shows a fairly strong cold shot in early April, so there remains some possibility that the City's last freeze might not have occurred. April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.9° (2.4° above normal).

Live webcam from Iceland: https://www.ruv.is/frett/2021/03/20/beint-vefstreymi-fra-eldstodvunum

0.69” rain yesterday at JFK. It should break the record tomorrow. The temperature will probably surpass 70 there.

Morning thoughts... The storm responsible for yesterday’s significant rainfall has now moved away from the region. Yesterday’s precipitation totals included: New York City: 1.27” (highest figure since 1.85”, February 1, 2021); Newark: 1.35” (highest figure since 1.44”, February 1, 2021); and, Philadelphia 1.56” (highest figure since 1.59”, October 29, 2020 and new daily record for March 24). Some of the warmest weather so far this year is now likely. The unseasonable warmth will climax tomorrow. Today will be partly cloudy and noticeably warmer than yesterday. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 71° Some daily record high temperatures are possible across upstate New York, parts of northern New England, and Quebec. That region could also see some locally strong thunderstorms. Tomorrow will be windy and very warm. Temperatures could challenge or break daily record highs in parts of the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. There could also be some showers and thundershowers. Daily records for March 16 include: Allentown: 74°, 1963 Bridgeport: 70°, 1954 Islip: 65°, 1976 New York City-JFK: 67°, 1954 New York City-LGA: 72°, 1943 New York City-NYC: 76°, 1922 Newark: 73°, 1943 and 1986 Philadelphia: 80°, 1921 Poughkeepsie: 75°, 1949 and 1963 A cooler weekend will follow.

Temperatures topped out in the 50s across the region today as rain moved in. Up north, parts of Quebec saw record high temperatures earlier today. Records included: Quebec City: 59° (old record: 48°, 2000); Rivière-du-Loup: 56° (old record: 46°, 2000); and, Trois-Rivières: 54° (old record: 47°, 2000). Through 8 pm EDT, rainfall totals included: Allentown: 0.80" Atlantic City: 1.78" (old record: 0.98", 1952) Baltimore: 1.55" (old record: 1.22", 1989) Harrisburg: 0.58" Islip: 0.15" New York City-JFK: 0.33" New York City-LGA: 0.76" New York City-NYC: 0.87" Newark: 1.01" Philadelphia: 1.53" (old record: 1.24”, 1989) Washington, DC: 1.69" (old record: 1.45", 1905) Wilmington, DE: 1.77" (old record: 1.32", 1989) Rain will move away from the region later tonight. Before then, much of the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will have seen 0.50"-1.50" rain with locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00". Tomorrow and Friday will be much warmer days. Friday will likely be the warmest day so far this year. Highs in the region will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s tomorrow and lower to middle 70s with some upper 70s on Friday. Some showers and even thundershowers are possible, especially on Friday. In terms of records, daily record high temperatures could be challenged or broken tomorrow across upstate New York, parts of northern New England, and Quebec. Daily records are possible in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas on Friday. A sustained period of above to much above normal temperatures remains underway. In general, above normal temperatures will persist through the end of March. Any cool shots will likely be modest and brief. Some of the guidance suggests that a cold shot and at least some snow could affect northern New England near the end of March. April could start out on the cool side. However, historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +7.80 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.278 today. Since 1950, only 1978, 1986, and 2020 saw the AO reach or exceed +4.000 during the March 20-31 period. The 31° temperature recorded at Central Park on March 19 was likely New York City's last freeze of 2020-21 based on a combination of the latest ensemble guidance and the diminishing frequency of April freezes. April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018. Select April Statistics: 1951-80: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.1 1961-90: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.3 1971-00: Years with freezes: 16; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.2 1981-10: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0 1991-20: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0 Least years with freezes: 10, 1984-2013 Most years with freezes: 26, 1874-1903, 1880-1909, 1895-1924, 1896-1925, and 1897-1926 Lowest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 0.8, 1983-2012, 1984-2013, 1985-2014, and 1986-2015 Highest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 3.7, 1871-1900 and 1872-1901 Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 0, Most Recent: 2020 Most days in April with temperatures of 32°: 11, Most Recent: 1874 Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.9° (2.4° above normal).

Bayside might work. Southern Queens is probably more affected by the sea breeze than most of the City.

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly cloudy. There will also be periods of rain, especially during the afternoon. It will be cooler than yesterday. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 56° Newark: 57° Philadelphia: 59° Tomorrow and Friday will be much warmer days.

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with some showers, along with cooler temperatures. Following passage of the warm front, Thursday and Friday will be much warmer. Highs in the region will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s Thursday and lower to middle 70s with some upper 70s on Friday. Some showers and even thundershowers are possible, especially on Friday. A sustained period of above to much above normal temperatures is now underway. In general, above normal temperatures will persist through the end of March. Any cool shots will likely be modest and brief. Some of the guidance suggests that a cold shot and at least some snow could affect northern New England near the end of March. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +5.41 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.596 today. The 31° temperature recorded at Central Park on March 19 was likely New York City's last freeze of 2020-21 based on a combination of the latest ensemble guidance and the diminishing frequency of April freezes. April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018. Select April Statistics: 1951-80: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.1 1961-90: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.3 1971-00: Years with freezes: 16; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.2 1981-10: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0 1991-20: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0 Least years with freezes: 10, 1984-2013 Most years with freezes: 26, 1874-1903, 1880-1909, 1895-1924, 1896-1925, and 1897-1926 Lowest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 0.8, 1983-2012, 1984-2013, 1985-2014, and 1986-2015 Highest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 3.7, 1871-1900 and 1872-1901 Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 0, Most Recent: 2020 Most days in April with temperatures of 32°: 11, Most Recent: 1874 Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.6° (2.1° above normal).

Much of the City is now tainted by the urban heat island effect. Parts of the northern Bronx and also Staten Island are less severely impacted. Central Park could be improved with some commitment to greater accuracy there. That would entail managing the tree growth around the station, measuring snowfall when the snow stops falling, etc. The issue of trees has a larger impact on temperatures.

The City radiates poorly. I had thick frost the past two days (not today), as well.

Morning thoughts... Morning fog will burn off and give way to a partly sunny day. Clouds could become more noticeable during the afternoon or evening. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 63° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 66° Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy and cooler with some showers. Much warmer air will arrive for Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures rose into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region this afternoon after a frosty start outside the big cities. Tomorrow will be another mainly sunny and springlike day. Afterward, Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with some showers, along with cooler temperatures. Much above normal temperatures are likely on Thursday and Friday. In addition, some showers and possibly thundershowers are possible. A sustained period of above to much above normal temperatures is now underway. In general, above normal temperatures will persist through the end of March. Any cool shots will likely be modest and brief. Newfoundland and Labrador saw a number of record high temperatures. High temperatures included: Churchill Falls: 52° (old record: 45°, 2012) Goose Bay: 53° (old record: 51°, 2000) Hopedale: 42° (old record: 40°, 1946) Mary's Harbour: 55° (old record: 42°, 2000) There remains some potential for another day of near record to record warm temperatures in eastern Canada tomorrow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.81 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.609 today. The 31° temperature recorded at Central Park on March 19 was likely New York City's last freeze of 2020-21 based on a combination of the latest ensemble guidance and the diminishing frequency of April freezes. April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018. Select April Statistics: 1951-80: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.1 1961-90: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.3 1971-00: Years with freezes: 16; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.2 1981-10: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0 1991-20: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0 Least years with freezes: 10, 1984-2013 Most years with freezes: 26, 1874-1903, 1880-1909, 1895-1924, 1896-1925, and 1897-1926 Lowest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 0.8, 1983-2012, 1984-2013, 1985-2014, and 1986-2015 Highest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 3.7, 1871-1900 and 1872-1901 Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 0, Most Recent: 2020 Most days in April with temperatures of 32°: 11, Most Recent: 1874 Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.6° (2.1° above normal).

Tornado study: https://www.pnas.org/content/118/14/e2021535118

Morning thoughts... At 7 am, temperatures in New York City, Newark and Philadelphia ranged from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Outside the cities, temperatures were in the upper 20s and lower 30s where a thick frost was present. Temperatures included: Allentown: 27°; Bridgeport: 33°; Danbury: 28°; Islip: 31°; New York City: 43°; Newark: 37°; Philadelphia: 35°; Poughkeepsie: 27°; Trenton: 31°; Westhampton: 26°; and, White Plains: 31° Under bright sunshine, temperatures will rebound strongly. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 62° Philadelphia: 64° Tomorrow will be mainly fair and continued mild. Late in the week, there could be some showers and thundershowers, along with unseasonably warm readings.