donsutherland1

Tomorrow will be another sunny day with temperatures reaching the lower and middle 40s across the region. Overall, temperatures will likely remain generally above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas into the first week of March and possibly beyond that. There could be some short-lived shots of cooler air. However, some of the guidance has moved toward a cooler opening to March, so uncertainty has increased concerning the first week of March. The MJO is forecast to reside predominantly in Phases 5-7 during the first 10 days of March in combination with an AO of generally +1.000 or above. During the 1991-2020 period, such a combination yielded temperatures that averaged 2.9° above normal in New York City and 1.7° above normal in Philadelphia. Broader statistical guidance based on the state of the ENSO and forecast teleconnections implies that the first half of March could wind up generally 1°-3° above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The latest dynamical guidance is consistent with those broader statistical temperature anomalies for the first half of March. During the 1991-2020 base period, the March 1-10 temperature has averaged 39.7° in New York City and 40.9° in Philadelphia. Measurable snow fell on 10% of days for both cities. During cases when the AO was +1.000 or above and the PNA was negative, the state of the SOI often made the difference between a colder/snowier or warmer/less snowy outcome. When the SOI was negative, the mean temperature in New York City was 39.5° and it was 39.6° in Philadelphia. Measurable snow fell on 20% of days in New York City and 17% of days in Philadelphia (well above the climatological frequency). When the SOI was positive, the mean temperature in New York City was 41.6° and it was 42.3° in Philadelphia. In such cases, measurable snow was observed on 13% of days in both cities. In sum, if this data holds up, even as a milder regime settles in, there could be some chance of a measurable snow event during the first 10 days of March in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Interior sections would likely be favored for measurable snow, as would central and upstate New York and New England. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March. The SOI was -14.79 today. That is the lowest SOI figure since July 31, 2020 when the SOI was -16.01. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.324 today. That is the highest AO value since November 22, 2020 when the AO was +2.583. On February 24 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.105 (RMM). The February 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.886. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of March. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.7° (1.6° below normal).

JFK should drop below 40 this evening. Sunday could be a challenge.

The sea breeze has helped keep JFK cooler.

No. It won’t even come close. There were 100+ day streaks in the past.

Morning thoughts... Following yesterday’s spring preview and a predawn high temperature of 50° in Central Park, today will be partly to mostly sunny and cooler. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 46° Newark: 46° Philadelphia: 47° Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with temperatures again reaching the middle 40s. Most of the remainder of February will likely see temperatures average somewhat above normal.

Under bright sunshine, much of the region basked in the balmy warmth of an early spring preview. Select high temperatures included: Allentown: 51° Atlantic City: 56° Baltimore: 63° Binghamton: 48° Bridgeport: 50° Harrisburg: 57° Islip: 50° New York City-JFK: 49° New York City-LGA: 53° New York City-NYC: 54° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 56° Poughkeepsie: 52° Scranton: 54° Sterling, VA: 66° Washington, DC: 60° Wilmington, DE: 56° Somewhat cooler air will return to the region for tomorrow and Friday. Overall, temperatures will likely remain generally above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas into the first week of March and possibly beyond that, as ensemble support for a prolonged positive AO regime has increased further. There could be some short-lived shots of cooler air. The MJO is forecast to reside predominantly in Phases 5-7 during the first 10 days of March in combination with an AO of generally +1.000 or above. During the 1991-2020 period, such a combination yielded temperatures that averaged 2.9° above normal in New York City and 1.7° above normal in Philadelphia. Broader statistical guidance based on the state of the ENSO and forecast teleconnections implies that the first half of March could wind up generally 1°-3° above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The latest dynamical guidance is consistent with those broader statistical temperature anomalies. During the 1991-2020 base period, the March 1-10 temperature has averaged 39.7° in New York City and 40.9° in Philadelphia. Measurable snow fell on 10% of days for both cities. During cases when the AO was +1.000 or above and the PNA was negative, the state of the SOI often made the difference between a colder/snowier or warmer/less snowy outcome. When the SOI was negative, the mean temperature in New York City was 39.5° and it was 39.6° in Philadelphia. Measurable snow fell on 20% of days in New York City and 17% of days in Philadelphia (well above the climatological frequency). When the SOI was positive, the mean temperature in New York City was 41.6° and it was 42.3° in Philadelphia. In such cases, measurable snow was observed on 13% of days in both cities. In sum, if this data holds up, even as a milder regime settles in, there could be some chance of a measurable snow event during the first 10 days of March in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Interior sections would likely be favored for measurable snow, as would central and upstate New York and New England. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March. The SOI was -3.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.628 today. That is the AO's highest value since the AO was +2.181 on November 26, 2020. On February 23 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.872 (RMM). The February 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.819. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of March. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.6° (1.7° below normal).

The streak barely survived with a low of 39°.

Shortening wave lengths create possibilities even within a generally milder regime.

Morning thoughts... A springlike day is on tap. Today will be partly sunny and noticeably milder. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 50° Newark: 51° Philadelphia: 54° Tomorrow will be mostly sunny but somewhat cooler. Most of the remainder of February will likely see temperatures average somewhat above normal.

Today, an upper air disturbance brought a period of light rain and snow to parts of the Northeast. Seasonal snowfall amounts to date include: Albany: 52.9" (8.1" above normal) Allentown: 57.3" (31.9" above normal) ***8th highest*** Baltimore: 10.4" (6.6" below normal) Binghamton: 97.1" (36.3" above normal) ***19th highest*** Boston: 38.4" (6.2" above normal) Bridgeport: 43.8" (23.6" above normal) Buffalo: 70.2" (4.6" below normal) Burlington: 57.7" (0.3" below normal) Caribou: 75.8" (1.5" below normal) Harrisburg: 36.0" (12.5" above normal) Islip: 33.5" (15.0" above normal) New York City: 38.6" (18.7" above normal) Newark: 45.7" (24.1" above normal) ***14th highest*** Philadelphia: 23.9" (6.0" above normal) Portland: 40.8" (3.4" below normal) Providence: 33.5" (7.1" above normal) Washington, DC: 5.4" (7.9" below normal) Milder air continues to move into the region. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 50° on tomorrow before somewhat cooler air returns. Late this week through the coming weekend, temperatures will likely rise to much above normal levels in the southeastern United States. Overall, temperatures will likely remain generally above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas into the first week of March and possibly beyond that, as ensemble support for a prolonged positive AO regime has increased. There could be some short-lived shots of somewhat cooler air. During the 1991-2020 base period, the March 1-10 temperature has averaged 39.7° in New York City and 40.9° in Philadelphia. Measurable snow fell on 10% of days for both cities. During cases when the AO was +1.000 or above and the PNA was negative, the state of the SOI often made the difference between a colder/snowier or warmer/less snowy outcome. When the SOI was negative, the mean temperature in New York City was 39.5° and it was 39.6° in Philadelphia. Measurable snow fell on 20% of days in New York City and 17% of days in Philadelphia (well above the climatological frequency). When the SOI was positive, the mean temperature in New York City was 41.6° and it was 42.3° in Philadelphia. In such cases, measurable snow was observed on 13% of days in both cities. In sum, if this data holds up, even as a milder regime settles in, there will be some chance of a measurable snow event during the first 10 days of March in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Interior sections would likely be favored for measurable snow, as would central and upstate New York and New England. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March. The SOI was +7.54 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.415 today. That was the highest AO value since November 26, 2020 when the AO was +2.181. On February 22 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.817 (RMM). The February 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.083. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of March. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.3° (2.0° below normal).

With 1"-2" snowfall reports around Binghamton, it is extremely likely that Binghamton has received at least 0.5" snow today. As a result, winter 2019-20 has moved past winter 1962-63 to become Binghamton's 19th snowiest winter on record. Winter 1962-63 had seen 95.3" snow.

Light rain in Larchmont, NY. Some areas north of White Plains are receiving some snow.

With 57.3” snow through yesterday, winter 2020-21 is now Allentown’s 8th snowiest winter on record.

Morning thoughts... The long-modeled milder period is now taking hold following yesterday’s snow event. It will be variably cloudy with a passing rain or snow shower. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower 40s in most of the region. Areas from Philadelphia and southward will likely reach the middle 40s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 43° Newark: 43° Philadelphia: 46° The thermometer could make a run at 50° tomorrow in many parts of the region. Most of the remainder of February will likely see temperatures average somewhat above normal.

JFK reported 0.4”, LGA: 0.6”, and NYC: 0.4”

I'm not surprised. There was no rainbow here, but the sky turned a reddish hue while a light rain continued to fall. Had the sun broken through, there would likely have been a rainbow up here.

I was not aware of that. Interestingly, there were no snow accumulation reports from Nassau County. Also, the local storm report for EWR showed 2.1" but the daily climate report shows 1.2". There's a transposition error on one of these reports.

A front moved across the region earlier today. Parts of the region saw a period of moderate to heavy snow. In many places, the snow changed to rain before ending. East of New York City, mainly or wholly rain fell. Milder conditions now lie ahead. Tomorrow will likely see the temperature top out in the lower and middle 40s. There could still be a snow flurry or some snow showers early in the day. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 50° on Wednesday before somewhat cooler air returns. Overall, a period of warmer than normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas into the first week of March and possibly beyond that. There could be some short-lived shots of cooler air. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March. The SOI was +18.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.041 today. On February 21 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.083 (RMM). The February 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.204. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of March. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.0° (2.3° below normal).

Two photos from this evening as the clouds began to break:

NYC has 38.6” and BOS has 38.4”.

Central Park: 0.4”

They should, but that doesn’t happen there consistently.

Philadelphia: 0.8”

EWR: 2.1”

The above pictures are from NYC’s suburbs (Scarsdale, Larchmont, and Mamaroneck). If anything stuck on Central Park’s snowboard after 1 pm, it will likely be washed away before the Park measures again at 7 pm. It seems that no measurement is made when the snow stops falling or no such measurement is made on a consistent basis.