donsutherland1

For further perspective concerning Toledo, Toledo has seen 17 days on which 1" or more snow fell on or after April 10th. Once one moves to on or after April 20th, there were just 4 such days.

My thinking is 3"-6" (7.5 cm-15 cm). 4" (10 cm) looks reasonable.

Early storm reports coming in from Missouri show amounts of 2"-4" just north of Kansas City, including a high figure of 4.5". Late-season storms can sometimes overperform where the heavy banding takes place.

That is correct. Below is a list of Toledo's 1" or greater snowfalls on or after April 20: April 21, 1922: 2.0” May 8-9, 1923: 4.0” May 6-7, 1989: 1.3” April 23-24, 2005: 4.0”

At 7 am CDT, Kansas City was reporting heavy snow with a temperature of 33°. Kansas City remains on track for a 1"-3" snowfall. The daily record snowfall is 2.7", which was set in 1992.

My thoughts concerning the impending snow event and daily records for select locations: Buffalo: 3”-6”; April 20: 5.5”, 1901; April 21: 1.3”, 1934 Detroit: 2”-4”; April 20: 1.2”, 1947; April 21: 0.3”, 1978 Indianapolis: 1”-2”; April 20: None; April 21: 0.7”, 1901 Toledo: 3”-6”; April 20: 0.3”, 2013; April 21: 2.0”, 1922 Windsor: 2”-4” (5-10 cm); April 20: 0.9” (2.3 cm), 1947; April 21: 0.8” (2.0 cm), 1986

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower to perhaps middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 73° Newark: 75° Philadelphia: 74° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warm. As a strong cold front crosses the region, it could be marked by the passive of a squall line with severe thunderstorms. Farther west, the storm that will drag the cold front across the region tomorrow will bring a late-season snowfall to parts of the Great Lakes region into western and upstate New York late today into tomorrow. Snowfall estimates and daily records: Buffalo: 3”-6”; April 20: 5.5”, 1901; April 21: 1.3”, 1934 Detroit: 2”-4”; April 20: 1.2”, 1947; April 21: 0.3”, 1978 Indianapolis: 1”-2”; April 20: None; April 21: 0.7”, 1901 Toledo: 3”-6”; April 20: 0.3”, 2013; April 21: 2.0”, 1922 Windsor: 2”-4” (5-10 cm); April 20: 0.9” (2.3 cm), 1947; April 21: 0.8” (2.0 cm), 1986

Running through Bufkit, it's looking like both Detroit and Toledo could see more snow than what I described above if the subsequent guidance remains consistent. It will be interesting to see how things evolve overnight.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and very warm. The temperature could surge above 70° in much of the region. A sharp cold front will likely cross the region on Wednesday, possibly with a squall line, bringing a short period of much below normal readings. Thursday morning and perhaps Friday morning could see the temperature fall below 40° in New York City. There is some chance that this could be the last temperature in the 30s for Central Park until next fall. Meanwhile, a storm will likely bring accumulating snow to parts of the Great Lakes region tomorrow into Wednesday. Detroit could see 1"-3" of snow while Toledo picks up 2"-4". Uncertainty about the actual accumulations is greater than normal given spring climatology and the large differences between the 12z GFS and the far more aggressive 12z HREF. The 18z GFS ticked northward relative to the 12z run with its forecast area of accumulating snow. The above amounts reflect a blend of the NBM, HREF, and ECMWF. Some of the guidance is again suggesting that the month could close with much above normal temperatures. Such an outcome would be consistent with the MJO's having moved through Phase 6 at a very high amplitude during the April 1-15 period. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. The MJO's ongoing passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is consistent with an outcome that typically yields 1-2 80° days. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was +12.83 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.021 today. On April 18 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.932 (RMM). The April 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.750 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.8° (0.8° above normal).

Unfortunately, not. The lack of such measurements leaves gaps in the climate record.

MPO no longer records the daily snowfall. There is also no local storm report for that event.

Mount Pocono picked up 8.2”. I have no data from Lake Harmony.

Probably not. JFK should reach the mid-60s. NYC will probably top out at 66-67. Clouds will increase this afternoon.

Central New York State received some snow from the follow-up system, but it passed to our north and west.

Today is one day where the high temperature will likely beat the guidance. The MOS shows 65 as a high for Central Park. At 11 am, it was already 63 there.

Kansas City will likely see its first measurable snowfall after April 15 since May 2, 2013 when 0.5" fell. The last time a post-April 15 storm brought more than 1" of snow to Kansas City was April 20, 1992 when 2.7" fell. I doubt St. Louis will have measurable snow. The last time St. Louis had measurable snow after April 15 was April 18, 1997 when 0.1" was recorded. The climate database shows May 6, 1998, but that is wrong, as the minimum temperature was 62 degrees. That was hail, not snow. It should have been flagged by quality control given the minimum temperature, alone. There is only one case where both Kansas City and St. Louis received measurable snow on the same day after April 15: April 24, 1910 when Kansas City picked up 0.1" and St. Louis received 1.1".

Detroit had a trace of snow from the system that impacted us and then 0.5" from a follow-up system.

It's possible that some of the NE PA mountains could pick up a coating of snow.

All of the NYC area sites are currently running above normal through yesterday: EWR: +1.1 JFK: +1.3 LGA: +2.2 NYC: +1.8 This week's brief cold shot won't be sufficient to erase these warm anomalies. Moreover, today and tomorrow could add to those warm anomalies.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 66° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 68° Tomorrow will be sunny unseasonably warm. Temperatures will likely reach or exceed 70° in much of the region. At the same time, a storm could bring 1”-3” of snow to Detroit on tomorrow into Wednesday. Detroit’s most recent measurable snow on or after April 20 occurred on May 10, 2020 when 0.5” of snow fell. Detroit’s daily snowfall records are: April 20: 1.2”, 1947 April 21: 0.3”, 1978

Detroit and Toledo continue to be in line for what appears to be a 2” or greater snowfall for Tuesday into Wednesday (April 20-21). Toledo has had four prior snowfalls of 1” or more on or after April 20: April 21, 1922: 2.0” May 8-9, 1923: 4.0” May 6-7, 1989: 1.3” April 23-24, 2005: 4.0” The most recent measurable snowfall on or after April 20 occurred on April 20, 2013 when 0.3” snow was measured. Daily snowfall records are: April 20: Detroit: 1.2”, 1947; Toledo: 0.3”, 2013 April 21: Detroit: 0.3”, 1978; Toledo: 2.0”, 1922

Tomorrow and Tuesday will be springlike days. The temperature could surge above 70° in much of the region on Tuesday. A sharp cold front will likely cross the region on Wednesday, possibly with a squall line, bringing a short period of much below normal readings. Thursday morning could see the temperature fall below 40° in New York City. Meanwhile, a storm will likely bring accumulating snow to parts of the Great Lakes region on Tuesday into Wednesday. Detroit could see 2" or more of snow on or after April 20 for only the 5th time on record. Detroit's last measurable snowfall on or after April 20 occurred just last year on May 10, 2020 when 0.5" of snow was measured. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around April 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was -1.01 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.191 today. On April 17 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.749 (RMM). The April 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.573 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.8° (0.8° above normal).

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and milder. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 64° Philadelphia: 64° Tomorrow will be sunny and mild. The first half of next week will be noticeably warmer with readings well into the 60s with perhaps a day where they reach or exceed 70°. At the same time, a storm could bring 2” or more of snow to Detroit on Tuesday into Wednesday. Since 1874, Detroit has had only four storms of 2” or more snow on or after April 20: May 21-22, 1883: 5.0”; April 29, 1909: 3.0”; May 9, 1923: 6.0”; April 23-24, 2005: 4.3”. Detroit’s most recent measurable snow on or after April 20 occurred on May 10, 2020 when 0.5” of snow fell.

Yes. A total of 1.6” fell during 4/19-20.

For reference, Detroit has seen seven storms bring 1” or more snow on or after April 20. There is a chance that next week could add to the list. Those past storms are: May 21-22, 1883: 5.0” April 29, 1909: 3.0” April 22, 1911: 1.0” May 13, 1912: 1.5” May 9, 1923: 6.0” April 23-24, 1967: 1.7” April 23-24, 2005: 4.3” The most recent date on or after April 20 that saw measurable snowfall was May 10, 2020 when 0.5” accumulated.