donsutherland1

There was a sprinkle in New Rochelle, NY a short time ago.

Time: 2021-03-14T12:00:00Z UTC Event: 52.5 HEAVY SNOW Source: PARK/FOREST SRVC Remark: WINDY PEAK SNOTEL IN THE LARAMIE RANGE. ELEVATION 7900 FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS 3.5 INCHES AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO USED WAS 15 TO 1. ACCUMULATION WAS OVER PAST 24 HOURS.

Cheyenne’s March Snowfall Records: Daily: 15.9”, March 18, 2003; 2-Day: 17.2”, March 17-18, 2003; 3-Day: 18.9”, March 5-7, 1990 Cheyenne’s All-Time Snowfall Records: Daily: 19.8”, November 20, 1979; 2-Day: 25.2”, November 20-21, 1979; 3-Day: 25.6”, November 19-21, 1979

Back on March 5 0z, the EPS ensembles were indicating that there would be a pattern similar to that of March 9-15, 2020. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54600-march-2021/?do=findComment&comment=5954517March 9-12, 2021 saw what turned out to be an even more amplified version of the 2020 pattern, as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) soared to a preliminary March record of +5.656. As a result, the March 9-12, 2021 timeframe was even warmer than the March 9-15, 2020 period. Boston: Average High: 2020: 56.9°; 2021: 62.0° Average Low: 2020: 37.3°; 38.3° Mean: 2020: 47.0°; 2021: 50.1° Highest: 2020: 72°; 2021: 74° New York City: Average High: 2020: 60.7°; 2021: 64.3° Average Low: 2020: 45.0°; 2021: 44.8° Mean: 2020: 52.9°; 2021: 54.5° Highest: 2020: 72°; 71° Philadelphia: Average High: 2020: 63.6°; 2021: 70.3° Average Low: 2020: 43.1°; 2021: 42.0° Mean: 2020: 53.4°; 2021: 56.1° Highest: 2020: 74°; 2021: 74° In sum, this experience suggests the insight hemispheric patterns can provide. Synoptic details, including the placement of features and magnitude of amplification, determine the details of how things turn out.

NWS Cheyenne: 10” snow in 4 hours. https://twitter.com/NWSCheyenne/status/1371082592682790914?s=20

Morning thoughts... A blizzard is currently bringing heavy snow and high winds to parts of the Rockies. So far, Denver has picked up 11.1” of snow. Areas around Cheyenne had picked up 8” of snow just before midnight MST. A strong cold front will cross the region today. Overall, it will be partly sunny and increasingly windy. Winds could gust past 50 mph in some areas. There could be an isolated sprinkle. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 58° Tomorrow will be sunny and unseasonably cold. Much of the region will see low temperatures in the lower 20s. Outside the major cities, some teens are possible. The March 16-19 period could still offer a period of opportunity for a light snow event in parts of the region. Out west, the major to perhaps historic snowstorm will rage into this evening. Snow will diminish at night or early tomorrow. Denver will likely experience a storm total 12”-18” snowfall. Cheyenne remains on track to pick up a storm total 20”-30” of snow. Cheyenne’s March Snowfall Records: Daily: 15.9”, March 18, 2003; 2-Day: 17.2”, March 17-18, 2003; 3-Day: 18.9”, March 5-7, 1990 Cheyenne’s All-Time Snowfall Records: Daily: 19.8”, November 20, 1979; 2-Day: 25.2”, November 20-21, 1979; 3-Day: 25.6”, November 19-21, 1979

Cooler weather moved back into the region overnight. Tomorrow will be partly sunny, windy, and seasonably cool. A strong cold front will move across the region bringing some clouds. There could be an isolated sprinkle. Monday will be the coldest day of the week and possibly the coldest day until at least late next fall. Since 1990, 73% of cases that saw a high temperature of 70° or above during March 1-15 were followed by a low temperature of 32° or below during the following two weeks. 54% of such cases saw a low temperature below 30° during the following two weeks and 27% saw the temperature fall below 25°. The mean lowest temperature during the following two weeks was 29°. Monday's fairly strong cold shot is consistent with recent historical experience. In addition, the March 16-19 period could offer a period of opportunity for a light snow event in parts of the region. Next weekend could mark the start of a new warming trend. Since 1950, nearly 60% of days two weeks after the AO reached +3.000 or above in the March 1-15 period were warmer than when the AO reached +3.000 or above. The AO reached +3.000 on March 10. The mean increase was 2.8°. This suggests that it is more likely than not that the closing week of March could see a return to warmer conditions. Out west, a major to perhaps historic snowstorm will continue into late tomorrow or early Monday. Denver, Cheyenne, and possibly Casper, as well as the Nebraska Panhandle, will likely see heavy snowfall. Denver will likely pick up 8"-16" of snow. Cheyenne will likely see 20"-30" of snow. That would set a new March record and could challenge that Cheyenne's all-time record snowstorm amount. Cheyenne's March Snowfall Records: Daily: 15.9”, March 18, 2003; 2-Day: 17.2”, March 17-18, 2003; 3-Day: 18.9”, March 5-7, 1990 Cheyenne's All-Time Snowfall Records: Daily: 19.8”, November 20, 1979; 2-Day: 25.2”, November 20-21, 1979; 3-Day: 25.6”, November 19-21, 1979 The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March. Afterward, neutral-cool ENSO conditions will likely develop as the spring progresses. The SOI was -11.68 today. The SOI had recently been negative for 10 consecutive days. That development could be an early indication that what has been a fairly stable La Niña regime throughout the winter could be moving closer to its end stages. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.329 today. On March 12 MJO data was not available. The March 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.297 (RMM). The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.9° (0.4° above normal).

Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose to 50° in New York City. After the last few days of much above normal temperatures, the New York Botanical Garden’s Japanese Apricot trees have burst into bloom. Crocuses are out in abundance.

000 NOUS41 KOKX 131147 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-132335- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 647 AM EST SAT MAR 13 2021 ...HIGHEST WIND GUST REPORTS... LOCATION SPEED TIME/DATE PROVIDER ...CONNECTICUT... ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 43 MPH 1249 AM 03/13 ASOS BRIDGEPORT 43 MPH 0115 AM 03/13 CWOP ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... CHESTER AIRPORT 40 MPH 0515 AM 03/13 AWOS ...NEW HAVEN COUNTY... STONY CREEK 51 MPH 1255 AM 03/13 CWOP LIGHTHOUSE POINT 45 MPH 1154 PM 03/12 WXFLOW WATERBURY AIRPORT 41 MPH 1106 PM 03/12 AWOS HAMMONASSET 41 MPH 1154 PM 03/12 WXFLOW ...NEW LONDON COUNTY... GROTON AIRPORT 49 MPH 0255 AM 03/13 ASOS ...NEW JERSEY... ...BERGEN COUNTY... FAIR LAWN 41 MPH 1254 AM 03/13 CWOP TETERBORO AIRPORT 41 MPH 0154 AM 03/13 ASOS ...HUDSON COUNTY... BAYONNE 43 MPH 0345 AM 03/13 WXFLOW ...UNION COUNTY... NEWARK AIRPORT 53 MPH 1249 AM 03/13 ASOS LINDEN AIRPORT 43 MPH 0215 AM 03/13 AWOS ...NEW YORK... ...KINGS COUNTY... BROOKLYN COLLEGE 49 MPH 0105 AM 03/13 NYSM SHEEPSHEAD BAY 41 MPH 0145 AM 03/13 CWOP ...NASSAU COUNTY... BAYVILLE 52 MPH 0121 AM 03/13 WXFLOW WANTAGH 44 MPH 0110 AM 03/13 NYSM ...NEW YORK COUNTY... MIDTOWN MANHATTAN 50 MPH 0245 AM 03/13 NYSM ...ORANGE COUNTY... STEWART AIRPORT 47 MPH 1245 AM 03/13 AWOS VAILS GATE 44 MPH 1211 AM 03/13 CWOP NEWBURGH 43 MPH 1031 PM 03/12 CWOP WARWICK 41 MPH 1215 AM 03/13 NYSM MONTGOMERY AIRPORT 40 MPH 0116 AM 03/13 AWOS ...PUTNAM COUNTY... BREWSTER 49 MPH 1145 PM 03/12 NYSM ...QUEENS COUNTY... NYC/LA GUARDIA 54 MPH 0110 AM 03/13 ASOS NYC/JFK AIRPORT 54 MPH 0245 AM 03/13 ASOS KEW GARDEN HILLS 48 MPH 0120 AM 03/13 NYSM JACKSON HEIGHTS 46 MPH 0243 AM 03/13 CWOP NYC/JFK 41 MPH 0246 AM 03/13 ASOS ...RICHMOND COUNTY... COLLEGE OF STATEN ISLAND 43 MPH 0115 AM 03/13 NYSM ...ROCKLAND COUNTY... SUFFERN 50 MPH 0230 AM 03/13 NYSM ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... EATONS NECK 61 MPH 1235 AM 03/13 WXFLOW WESTHAMPTON AIRPORT 55 MPH 1226 AM 03/13 ASOS GREAT GULL ISLAND 52 MPH 0318 AM 03/13 WXFLOW SOUTHOLD 50 MPH 0423 AM 03/13 CWOP NAPEAGUE 49 MPH 0359 AM 03/13 WXFLOW SOUTHOLD 47 MPH 0340 AM 03/13 NYSM SHIRLEY AIRPORT 46 MPH 0202 AM 03/13 ASOS RIDGE 45 MPH 1245 AM 03/13 CWOP WEST GILGO BEACH 45 MPH 0338 AM 03/13 CWOP MECOX BAY 45 MPH 0419 AM 03/13 WXFLOW ISLIP AIRPORT 44 MPH 0237 AM 03/13 ASOS FARMINGDALE AIRPORT 41 MPH 0155 AM 03/13 ASOS GREAT SOUTH BAY 41 MPH 0226 AM 03/13 WXFLOW FISHERS ISLAND AIRPORT 40 MPH 0442 AM 03/13 WXFLOW ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... WHITE PLAINS AIRPORT 47 MPH 0142 AM 03/13 ASOS TAPPAN ZEE LIGHT 14 45 MPH 0233 AM 03/13 WXFLOW PEEKSKILL 44 MPH 0158 AM 03/13 CWOP CROTON 43 MPH 0218 AM 03/13 WXFLOW SOMERS 40 MPH 1140 PM 03/12 NYSM ...CONNECTICUT... ...MARITIME STATIONS... USCG ACADEMY 52 MPH 0346 AM 03/13 WXFLOW 1 ESE NORWALK 48 MPH 0118 AM 03/13 WXFLOW STONGINGTON OUTER BREAKWATER 46 MPH 0349 AM 03/13 WXFLOW 2 SSE NEW HAVEN 45 MPH 1212 AM 03/13 NOS-PORTS ...NEW YORK... LARCHMONT HARBOR 48 MPH 0311 AM 03/13 WXFLOW FIRE ISLAND CG 48 MPH 0206 AM 03/13 WXFLOW ROBBINS REEF, NJ 47 MPH 0312 AM 03/13 NOS-PORTS SHINNECOCK 45 MPH 1219 AM 03/13 WXFLOW POINT O WOODS YC 44 MPH 0130 AM 03/13 WXFLOW CITY ISLAND 41 MPH 0216 AM 03/13 CWOP &&

Morning thoughts... Overnight, cooler air began pushing into the region on gusty winds. Nevertheless, New York City’s Central Park set a record high minimum temperature for March 12 with a low temperature of 52°. That beat the previous record of 50°, which had been set way back in 1898. Today will be fair, windy and noticeably cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 49° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 52° Tomorrow will be a seasonably cool day. The March 16-19 period could offer a period of opportunity for a light snow event in parts of the region. Out west, a major to perhaps historic snowstorm will get underway and continue through late tomorrow night or early Monday. Denver will likely experience an 8”-16” snowfall. Cheyenne remains on track to pick up 20”-30” of snow. March Snowfall Records: Daily: 15.9”, March 18, 2003; 2-Day: 17.2”, March 17-18, 2003; 3-Day: 18.9”, March 5-7, 1990 All-Time Snowfall Records: Daily: 19.8”, November 20, 1979; 2-Day: 25.2”, November 20-21, 1979; 3-Day: 25.6”, November 19-21, 1979

Enjoy the storm.

Early clouds yielded to abundant sunshine in parts of the region sending temperatures soaring for another day. Parts of the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas saw record high temperatures. High temperatures included: Allentown: 65° Boston: 65° Bridgeport: 67° (old record: 65°, 2012) Islip: 67° (old record: 65°, 1973 and 2012) New Haven: 66° (old record: 63°, 1973) New York City-JFK: 70° (old record: 68°, 1973) New York City-LGA: 69° (tied record set in 2012) New York City-NYC: 68° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 71° Providence: 65° Poughkeepsie: 63° Trenton: 69° Westhampton: 67° (old record: 60°, 2012) The early episode of spring is now concluding. Cooler weather will return this weekend. Since 1990, 73% of cases that saw a high temperature of 70° or above during March 1-15 were followed by a low temperature of 32° or below during the following two weeks. 54% of such cases saw a low temperature below 30° during the following two weeks and 27% saw the temperature fall below 25°. The mean lowest temperature during the following two weeks was 29°. In sum, the fairly strong cold shot for early next week is consistent with recent historical experience. However, just as was the case during the historic February arctic outbreak, the core of the cold will likely remain west of the region on account of a fairly expansive western Atlantic ridge. Nevertheless, the March 16-19 period could offer a period of opportunity for a light snow event in parts of the region. Since 1950, nearly 60% of days two weeks after the AO reached +3.000 or above in the March 1-15 period were warmer than when the AO reached +3.000 or above. The mean increase was 2.8°. This suggests that it is more likely than not that the closing week of March could see a return to warmer conditions. This warmth is now showing up on the CFSv2's week 3 maps. Out west, a major to perhaps historic snowstorm will develop in the Rockies late tonight and continue into late Sunday or early Monday. Denver, Cheyenne, and possibly Casper, as well as the Nebraska Panhandle, will likely see heavy snowfall. Denver will likely pick up 8"-16" of snow, though there is greater uncertainty. Cheyenne will likely see 20"-30" of snow. That would set a new March record and could challenge that Cheyenne's all-time record snowstorm amount. Cheyenne's March Snowfall Records: Daily: 15.9”, March 18, 2003; 2-Day: 17.2”, March 17-18, 2003; 3-Day: 18.9”, March 5-7, 1990 Cheyenne's All-Time Snowfall Records: Daily: 19.8”, November 20, 1979; 2-Day: 25.2”, November 20-21, 1979; 3-Day: 25.6”, November 19-21, 1979 The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March. Afterward, neutral-cool ENSO conditions will likely develop as the spring progresses. The SOI was -6.51 today. The SOI had been negative for 10 consecutive days. That development could be an early indication that what has been a fairly stable La Niña regime throughout the winter could be moving closer to its end stages. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.656 today. That exceeds the March record of +5.588, which was set on March 8, 2015. On March 11 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.290 (RMM). The March 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.099 (RMM). The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.9° (0.4° above normal).

January 6, 2007: 71 degrees

JFK: 69 degrees at 3 pm (old daily record: 68 degrees, 2012)

The AO played a prominent role. For February, the AO averaged +3.440. For March, it averaged +2.990. February closed with a very strong AO+ regime (+5.911 on February 26) and the AO remained strongly positive through March 30. A strong PNA- pattern developed after the first week of March and this could have been the trigger for the sequence of events that culminated in the exceptional warmth that occurred near mid-March. Overall, the exceptional heat occurred within an enduring pattern that favored above to much above normal temperatures with only short breaks of colder weather (2/25-3/9 cool period but a smaller number of days with much below normal temperatures). Select NYC Data: February 1-24: Mean Temperature: 42.2°; Days 50° or above: 15; Days 60° or above: 4

Today’s preliminary AO value is +5.656. That would surpass the March record of +5.588, which was set on March 8, 2015. The AO is forecast to fall sharply in coming days.

Morning thoughts... On this date in 1888, a ferocious blizzard was raging across much of the northern Mid-Atlantic region into central and western New England. The temperature had fallen into the single digits. Blinding snow was being blown by near hurricane-force wind gusts into towering drifts, blocking streets and making outdoor activity all but impossible. Today will be a far more tranquil day. Under partly sunny skies, another day of unseasonable warmth will prevail. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 70° Cooler weather will return for the weekend. The March 16-19 period could offer a period of opportunity for at least some snow in parts of the region. Out west, a major to perhaps historic snowstorm is likely in parts of the Rockies, including Casper, Cheyenne, and possibly Denver from late Friday into Monday. Cheyenne will likely challenge some of its March snowfall records. There is a chance that Cheyenne’s all-time snowfall record could be challenged. At present, Cheyenne looks to be on track to pick up 20”-30” of snow. March Snowfall Records: Daily: 15.9”, March 18, 2003; 2-Day: 17.2”, March 17-18, 2003; 3-Day: 18.9”, March 5-7, 1990 All-Time Snowfall Records: Daily: 19.8”, November 20, 1979; 2-Day: 25.2”, November 20-21, 1979; 3-Day: 25.6”, November 19-21, 1979

Parts of Long Island and the Connecticut shore were locked in temperatures that rose no higher than the upper 50s. Elsewhere in the region, sunshine boosted temperatures to near record and record highs from Philadelphia to New York City. High temperatures included: Allentown: 73° (old record: 71°, 1977) Baltimore 79° (old record: 75°, 1967) New York City: 71° Newark: 75° (old record: 71°, 1977) Philadelphia: 74° (old record: 72°, 1977) Poughkeepsie: 71° Reading: 77° (old record: 74°, 1986) Sterling: 79° (old record: 77°, 1990) Trenton: 73° (old record: 72°, 1977) Washington, DC: 79° (old record: 78°, 1967) Wilmington, DE: 74° (old record: 73°, 1967) Tomorrow will be another very warm day. Temperatures in the region will likely rise well into the 60s. Some areas could again see the temperature reach or exceed 70°. Afterward, temperatures will cool. Since 1990, 73% of cases that saw a high temperature of 70° or above during March 1-15 were followed by a low temperature of 32° or below during the following two weeks. 54% of such cases saw a low temperature below 30° during the following two weeks. The mean lowest temperature during the following two weeks was 29°. In sum, historic experience is consistent with the guidance that shows a fairly strong cold shot for early next week. However, just as was the case during the historic February arctic outbreak, the core of the cold will likely remain west of the region on account of a fairly expansive western Atlantic ridge. Nevertheless, the March 16-19 period could offer a period of opportunity for at least some snowfall in parts of the region. The ensembles generally favor the first half of that period. Since 1950, nearly 60% of days two weeks after the AO reached +3.000 or above in the March 1-15 period were warmer than when the AO reached +3.000 or above. The mean increase was 2.8°. This suggests that it is more likely than not that the closing week of March could see a return to warmer conditions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March. Afterward, neutral-cool ENSO conditions will likely develop as the spring progresses. The SOI was +7.71 today. The SOI had been negative for 10 consecutive days. That development could be an early indication that what has been a fairly stable La Niña regime throughout the winter could be moving closer to its end stages. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.135 today. This is a rare event. Since 1950, only March 7-8, 2015 saw the AO at or above +5.000 during March. The March record is +5.588, which was set on March 8, 2015. On March 10 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.090 (RMM). The March 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.087 (RMM). The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 48% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.8° (0.3° above normal).

EWR: 74 at 3 pm.

2 PM: NYC: 71; EWR: 73

797 SXUS71 KOKX 111835 REREWR RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 133 PM EST THU MAR 11 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 73 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 71 SET IN 1977. $$

Record AO Declines: 7 days or less: -6.831, January 5-12, 1977 (from +1.029 to -5.802) 6 days or less: -6.522, November 8-14, 1959 (from +1.690 to -4.832) 5 days or less (4-day period): -6.457, January 20-24, 1976 (from +3.195 to -3.262) 3 days or less: -5.142, January 20-23, 1976 (from +3.195 to -1.947) 2 days or less: -3.841, December 13-15, 1972 (from +3.007 to -0.834) 1 day: -2.695, June 30-July 1, 1964 (from +2.988 to +0.293)

Today's preliminary value of the AO was +5.135. On February 11, it was -5.254. The previous highest AO within 30 days of a -5.000 or below figure was +3.351 on April 21, 2013. 30 days earlier on March 22, the AO was -5.240.

Morning thoughts... On this date in 1888, rain began to fall in New York City. The temperature peaked at 42°, which was cool for the season but not exceptionally cold. Afterward, the temperature gradually descended into the lower 30s as an increasingly cold rain picked up in intensity. Overnight, the temperature declined more rapidly and a heavy rain turned into a howling blizzard that would carve its place into both the weather record books and New York City’s larger history. Today will be the almost complete opposite. Morning fog, mist, and clouds will lift. The afternoon will become partly to mostly sunny. In many parts of the region, the thermometer will soar to its highest levels so far this year. Long Island and the south shore of Connecticut could be exceptions. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle and upper 60s in much of the region. Upper 50s are likely on Long Island and Connecticut’s south shore. Some parts of the region, including Philadelphia, will likely see the temperature push into the lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 72° Tomorrow will be another unseasonably warm day. Cooler weather will likely return for the weekend. The March 16-19 period could offer a period of opportunity for at least some snow in parts of the region. Out west, a major to perhaps historic snowstorm appears likely in parts of the Rockies, including Casper, Cheyenne, and possibly Denver from late Friday into Monday. Cheyenne could challenge some of its March snowfall records: March Records: Daily: 15.9”, March 18, 2003; 2-Day: 17.2”, March 17-18, 2003; 3-Day: 18.9”, March 5-7, 1990

That’s good to see that Colin was recognized. He has always been enthusiastic about the weather. Quite frankly, hobbyists like him have filled the space left by what are often superficial and almost mechanical TV forecasts in some markets. 15-30 second sound bites are little more than time-fillers. It’s no surprise that the Lehigh Valley Facebook page cited in the article has gained a following. The Lehigh Valley has both widely varying weather and a rich weather record. The Capital Weather Gang has filled a similar need in the Washington, DC area.