donsutherland1

Morning thoughts... It will be partly cloudy and pleasant today. Temperatures will likely reach the middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 67° A sustained period of below normal to near normal temperatures is imminent. Tomorrow will be partly sunny but cool.

It’s possible. Once the pattern changes, it can become very warm in a hurry.

FYI, NOAA has a page devoted to billion dollar weather/climate disasters. The damages are adjusted for inflation. The 1981-2010 average was 5.0 per year. The 1991-2020 average is 8.6 per year. The 15-year average (2006-2020) is 11.8 per year. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/summary-stats/US/1981-2010

After a mainly cloudy and sometimes rainy day, the sun will return tomorrow. Tomorrow into the middle of next week will likely feature somewhat cooler than normal to near normal temperatures with perhaps a day or two of much below normal readings. Such cool shots have often occurred with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly, as is currently the case. Out West, Phoenix recorded its first 100° day of the year today. Last year saw Phoenix register a record 145 days on which the temperature rose to 100° or above. As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was +25.91 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.227 today. On May 4 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.989 (RMM). The May 3-adjusted amplitude was 3.394 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

The combination of the prevailing pattern in the means and Central Park’s vegetation likely contributed to this recent outcome.

Morning thoughts... It will be variably cloudy and cooler than yesterday. Showers and thundershowers are likely as a cold front approaches and moves across the region. The heaviest rainfall is likely to occur across upstate New York and northern New England.. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania could see the temperature rise into the lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 72° A sustained period of below normal to near normal temperatures will arrive tomorrow. In terms of the 1991-2020 normal temperatures, December saw the biggest increase in monthly temperature in both New York City and Philadelphia relative to the previous 1981-2010 baseline. In New York City, the normal monthly temperature rose by 1.6°. In Philadelphia, it rose by 1.3°. No months were cooler in New York City (smallest change: +0.3° in March and November). November was 0.2° cooler in Philadelphia. In New York City, January, July, September, October, and December saw increases of 1.0° or above. Only December met that criteria in Philadelphia. The greatest warming over two months occurred during the December-January period in New York City and Philadelphia. The September-October period saw the second greatest warming for a two-month period.

The temperature rose into the 70s as far north as New York City and the 80s in Philadelphia. Farther south, portions of the Southeast and Middle Atlantic region saw very warm temperatures. At Richmond, the temperature rose to 90° today. At Norfolk, the temperature soared to 93°, which surpassed the previous daily record of 92°, which was set in 1887 and tied in 1892. The number of 90° or above days last year and the five-year average for select cities is below: Albany: 2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days Allentown: 2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days Baltimore: 2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days Boston: 2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days Bridgeport: 2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days Burlington: 2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days Harrisburg: 2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days Hartford: 2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days Islip: 2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days New York City-JFK: 2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days New York City-LGA: 2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days New York City-NYC: 2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days Newark: 2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days Philadelphia: 2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days Scranton: 2020: 5 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days Washington, DC: 2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days Tomorrow will be another mild day, though not as warm as today. Showers and thundershowers are possible as a cold front moves across the region. The remainder of the week will likely feature near normal to somewhat cooler than normal temperatures. Such cool shots have often occurred with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly (-1.0°C in the latest weekly data). As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was +7.91 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.193 today. On May 3 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 3.395 (RMM). The May 2-adjusted amplitude was 3.570 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

The issue isn’t that climate scientists or those who accept the scientific consensus on climate change seek to avoid debate or discussion. Rather, they expect that debate and discussion should be grounded in concrete evidence and that evidence-based conclusions carry greater weight than unsubstantiated beliefs. There is currently overwhelming scientific evidence for anthropogenic climate change. Empirical evidence includes warming surface (land and ocean) temperatures, increasing oceanic heat content, ice sheet mass loss, declining Arctic sea ice extent minima, increasing ocean acidification, a falling ratio of the C13 isotope relative to the C12 isotope, and measured increases in greenhouse gas forcing. Clear scientific understanding of climate change—what is happening (warming) and why it is happening (anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions)—now exists. The scientific debate over those two issues is finished if one surveys the recent literature. Debate about uncertainties, regional effects, attribution of specific extreme events, tipping points, etc., continues. The burden of proof now squarely rests with those arguing that AGW is not real. The climate science community has effectively proved its case. Those arguing against AGW have produced no credible alternative explanation, much less one that has made it through peer review in a quality journal. Instead, they continue to recycle arguments from the past—it’s not happening, it’s not us, it’s not bad, and it’s too hard [to address climate change] (Elsasser and Dunlap, 2013)—even as greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow, atmospheric greenhouse gas forcing continues to increase, and the opportunity to limit warming grows shorter. This is the profound asymmetry in positions that now exists. The expectation that climate science would grant equivalence to beliefs not supported by the evidence is no more realistic than granting equivalence among those who see the Earth as a sphere and those who continue to insist that it is flat.

Morning thoughts... It will be variably cloudy and warmer than yesterday. Some showers remain possible, especially in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Temperatures will likely reach the lower 70s in the northern Middle Atlantic region to the lower 80s in southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 74° Philadelphia: 83° After mid-week, a period of generally cooler than normal temperatures will develop.

The time to look for 80s—probably multiple days—will probably be during the May 20-31 period. The pattern often snaps into a very warm one a few weeks after an exceptionally strong MJO passage through Phase 1.

Tomorrow will likely be very warm, especially from Philadelphia southward. Wednesday will likely also be warm, though not to the extent of tomorrow. A push of noticeably cooler air is likely late in the week. Such cool shots have often occurred when with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 region (-1.0°C in the latest weekly data). As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was -12.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.613 today. On May 1 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 3.621 (RMM). The April 30-adjusted amplitude was 3.486 (RMM). The May 1 amplitude of 3.621 is the highest amplitude on record for Phase 1. The prior record was 3.602, which was set on October 18, 2011. The prior May record was 2.822, which occurred on May 18, 1991. In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Morning thoughts... It will be variably cloudy and warm. Showers and thundershowers are possible, especially during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 67° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 74° Tomorrow will become noticeably warmer, especially from Philadelphia southward.

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler. Showers and thundershowers are possible as a warm front moves across the region. However, Tuesday will likely be very warm. In parts of the Middle Atlantic region, it could approach see the highest readings so far this spring. Wednesday will likely also be warm, though not to the extent of Tuesday. A push of noticeably cooler air is likely late in the week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was -20.28 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.096 today. On April 30 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 3.480 (RMM). The April 29-adjusted amplitude was 3.234 (RMM). The April 30 amplitude set a new record for highest amplitude when the MJO was in Phase 8 during the month of April for the fourth consecutive day. Prior to 2021, there had been no cases where the MJO reached an amplitude of 3.000 or above when the MJO was in Phase 8 during April. The April 30 amplitude is also the fourth highest amplitude on record when the MJO was in Phase 8. Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. The last time there was a strong Phase 8 passage was in March 2015. The amplitude was +3.584 on March 19, 2015. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. Whether or not the MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 provides the first hint of a hot summer remains to be seen.

At 2 pm, it was 81 degrees at Newark.

The period of cooling into the 1970s may have been the result of aerosols: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/GISSTemperature/giss_temperature4.php

There has been a “lift off” in temperatures over the past hour. At 1 pm, Newark was 75 degrees (+8 degrees in the past hour) and New York City was 68 degrees (+6 degrees in the past hour).

Morning thoughts... It will be variably cloudy and warm. A passing shower is possible. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 79° Newark: 81° Philadelphia: 82° Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler, but Tuesday will be very warm. Some parts of the region, especially from Philadelphia southward, could see their warmest readings so far on Tuesday.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and noticeably warmer. After a somewhat cooler day on Monday, next week could see one or two very warm days (Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday) in much of the Middle Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was -14.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.269 today. On April 29 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 3.234 (RMM). The April 28-adjusted amplitude was 3.073 (RMM). The April 29 amplitude set a new record for highest amplitude when the MJO was in Phase 8 during the month of April for the third consecutive day. Prior to 2021, there had been no cases where the MJO reached an amplitude of 3.000 or above when the MJO was in Phase 8 during April.

Areas as far south as Baltimore and Washington fell to 15 degrees on April 1, 1923. Albany was 9 degrees.

The temperature quickly rose into the 50s under this morning’s bright sunshine. The spring evolution continues to unfold at the New York Botanical Garden. The explosion of daffodils and cherry blossoms has now faded into memory. Azaleas and lilacs are now blooming in abundance.

There could be a cold shot sometime after the first week of May according to some of the guidance. I’m not sure it will be as impressive as the current one.

Nothing right now. The pattern will become more unsettled for a time next week, though.

Morning thoughts... An unseasonably cool air mass covers the region this morning. The arrival of that air mass produced a trace of snow in Rochester and Syracuse yesterday and a daily record 0.1" in Binghamton. Today will be sunny, breezy, and pleasant. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 67° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and much warmer. 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 63.1° Average temperature: 63.3° Average error: 1.6° Newark: Average daily forecast: 64.4° Average temperature: 64.2° Average error: 2.4° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 65.6° Average temperature: 65.2° Average error: 1.8°

On April 29, the MJO was in Phase 8 with an amplitude of 3.239. That set a new April record amplitude for Phase 8.

At 8:10 pm, some snow showers were diving southeast through the Catskills. The snow showers were indicated both by the radar and on mPing observations. Snow showers and mixed rain and snow showers are likely overnight in parts of northeastern Pennsylvania, extreme northwestern New Jersey, and parts of central New York State. In New York City, April is finishing with a mean temperature near 54.6°. That was 1.6° above normal. A somewhat warmer than normal May appears likely. The weekend will start with temperatures near or just below normal. Sunday will see noticeably warmer conditions. Next week could see one or two very warm days (Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday) in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Meanwhile, in Canada's far north, Eureka in Nunavut registered a new April record high temperature of 30°. The daily record for April 30 was 21°, which was set in 1948. The prior monthly record was 29°, which was set on April 27, 2021. Unseasonable warmth will again extend from the Southwest to the Northern Plains tomorrow. Some locations could challenge or break daily record high temperatures. Both the dynamical guidance and statistical measures that incorporate ENSO and the forecast teleconnections are in agreement that the first half of May will likely be warmer than normal in the region. The ongoing, long-duration MJO passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is also consistent with a warmer than normal May despite the current ENSO conditions. Both April 10-25, 1986 and 2004 saw such an MJO passage (one week or longer through Phase 7), though this one is stronger than both of those prior cases. Both cases had a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was -5.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.311 today. On April 28 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 3.073 (RMM). The April 27-adjusted amplitude was 3.046 (RMM). The amplitude of 3.073 is the highest amplitude on record for the MJO's passage through Phase 8 during April. The previous record was set on April 27 at 3.046. Prior to that, there had been no cases where the amplitude reached or exceeded 3.000 during April when the MJO was in Phase 8. There were only four prior years where the MJO moved through Phase 8 during the second half of April at an amplitude of 2.000 or above. 1977 and 1979 went on to register a very warm May. 1997 and 2005 went on to see a cooler than normal May.