donsutherland1

The possibility of minimum temperatures in the 30s on Thursday and then the 26th and perhaps 27th are more likely than 80s.

While that would fit with the recent MJO passage, I am somewhat skeptical especially given the other guidance. Last week, I was more bullish about such an outcome so to speak. It’s not out of the question, but not as likely as I had previously thought.

This afternoon, the weather was mostly cloudy at the New York Botanical Garden. The spring evolution continues uninterrupted.

Today saw variably cloudy skies with readings topping out in the middle 50s. Tomorrow will be somewhat warmer. Monday and Tuesday could feature readings in the 60s on Monday and even the 70s on Tuesday. A sharp cold front will likely cross the region on Wednesday bringing a short period of much below normal readings. The recent model runs have now turned colder for the remaining week of April. That development will bear watching. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around April 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was -4.54 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.499 today. On April 15 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.611 (RMM). The April 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.725 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.7° (0.7° above normal).

Under partly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the lower 50s late in the morning.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and a bit milder. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 55° Newark: 56° Philadelphia: 56° Tomorrow will be sunny and milder. The first half of next week will be noticeably warmer with readings well into the 60s with perhaps a day where they reach or exceed 70°.

Parts of New Hampshire picked up 13.0" snow. Snow will wind down across New England tonight. A slow warming trend will commence during the weekend. The recent model runs have now turned colder for the remaining week of April. That development will bear watching. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around April 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +4.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.537 today. On April 14 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.725 (RMM). The April 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.861 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.8° (0.8° above normal).

Morning thoughts... A slowly departing storm was bringing snow and rain to parts of New England. Today will start with partly sunny skies, but clouds could increase during the afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 55° Newark: 56° Philadelphia: 56° Temperatures will gradually increase during the weekend.

A developing storm will bring periods of rain to parts of the region overnight, particularly eastern sections. Meanwhile, a snowstorm will rage in the Berkshire, Green and White Mountains. There, 6"-12" of wet snow with locally higher amounts is likely. Worcester will likely pick up 2"-4" of snow. There is an outside chance that Boston could pick up a small accumulation. The last time Boston saw measurable snowfall in April was just last year on April 18, 2020 when 0.7" snow was measured. In the wake of the storm, tomorrow will be variably cloudy and blustery. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle 50s. However, a slow warming trend will likely commence during the weekend. The latest EPS weeklies notwithstanding, the closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around April 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was -4.26 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.265 today. On April 14 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.725 (RMM). The April 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.862 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.0° (1.0° above normal).

Morning thoughts... A developing storm will bring rain to the northern Middle Atlantic region to New England. In parts of upstate New York, central and northern New England, colder air working into the deepening storm’s circulation will result in a changeover to snow. A 6”-12” snowfall with some higher amounts is possible in the Berkshire, Green, and White Mountains. However, even Worcester will likely pick up 2”-4” of wet snow with locally higher amounts of around 6” in the vicinity of Worcester. There is a small chance that the precipitation could even change to a period of snow for a time in the Boston area producing a small slushy accumulation. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 57° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 63° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and blustery. Temperatures will gradually increase during the weekend.

Much of the region basked in springlike readings in the upper 60s and lower 70s. However, the next several days will be much colder. A developing storm will likely impact the region tomorrow into Friday. While a cool rain is likely from Philadelphia to New York City, there is the potential for an area of accumulating snow that will run across central and upstate New York State and central and northern New England. The greatest accumulations should be confined to higher elevations. Temperatures will likely stay in the lower 50s in New York City and Newark tomorrow. The latest EPS weeklies notwithstanding, the closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around April 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was -19.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.336 today. On April 13 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.863(RMM). The April 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.951 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.0° (1.0° above normal).

FYI: https://www.weather.gov/media/climateservices/Normals_Information_Handout_February_2021.pdf

October 2011. The spring equivalent might be the May 1977 snowfall (even as NYC received only a trace).

The morning should be mainly sunny. Clouds will increase during the afternoon.

Morning thoughts... Clouds will increase today, but it will be warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 69° Newark: 69° Philadelphia: 67° A cool rain will develop tomorrow. Across parts of central and upstate New York and central and northern New England, especially the higher elevations, rain will turn to accumulating snow.

I suspect the focus will be the Berkshires with much less away from there. The ECMWF seems reasonable for these late-season elevation-favored events.

Sunshine returned and the temperature rebounded into the 60s today. Tomorrow could be even warmer with highs in the upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s. A small piece of the cold air that has moved into the Northern Plains will move across the region late this week. At the same time, a storm will likely impact the region during late Thursday into Friday. While a cool rain is likely from Philadelphia to New York City, there is the potential for an area of accumulating snow that will run across northeastern Pennsylvania, central New York State, and central New England. The greatest accumulations should be confined to higher elevations in central New York State and central New England. The latest EPS weeklies notwithstanding, the closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around April 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was -25.60 today. That is the lowest SOI figure since June 20, 2020 when the SOI was -33.95. Over the last 50 days, the SOI has been negative on 58% of days. During the prior 50-day period, the SOI was negative on just 2% of days. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.445 today. On April 11 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.030(RMM). The April 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.890 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.0° (1.0° above normal).

I look forward to the photos. Then again, ISP picked up 8.5” during April 9-10, 1996.

Morning thoughts... It will be partly cloudy and milder today. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 63° Newark: 65° Philadelphia: 66° Clouds will increase tomorrow.

At 7 pm CDT, it was 32° with light snow in Bismarck. An unseasonably cold air mass will continue to push into the Northern Plains tonight and tomorrow. The coldest air will likely stay away from the region, but a small piece of this cold air could eventually move across parts of the region on Friday. At the same time, a storm will likely impact the region on Friday. While a cool rain is likely from Philadelphia to New York City, there is the potential for an area of accumulating snow that will run across northeastern Pennsylvania, central New York State, and central New England. The latest EPS weeklies notwithstanding, the closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around April 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was -9.23 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.596 today. On April 10 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.025(RMM). The April 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.889 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.0° (1.0° above normal).

That looks fairly likely right now. Some of the guidance is really cold relative to the season for Friday. Some snow in the Adirondacks, Catskills, and across parts of New England is also a possibility.

Such air masses modify quite a bit before they reach this region. Even a direct shot of the cold air mass would not yield the same kind of result at this time of year, as the Yukon is still covered by snow, but most of the CONUS and southern Canada is not.

Morning thoughts... It will be mostly cloudy with some rain today. It will also be unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 52° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 54° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and milder.

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with rain. It will be unseasonably cool with temperatures limited mainly to the lower 50s. The record-breaking cold air mass has now moved from Alaska into Canada's Yukon Territory. Numerous daily record low temperatures were set. Records included: Carmacks: -30° (old record: -6°, 2014) Dawson: -20° (old record: -18°, 1986) Faro: -25° (old record: -13°, 1986) Mayo: -27° (old record: -4°, 1966) Old Crow: -33° (old record: -30°, 1986) Teslin: -17° (old record: -3°, 1986) Watson Lake: -16° (old record: -9°, 2020) Whitehorse: -19° (old record: -13°, 1986) That unseasonably cold air mass will move into the Plains States this week and then into the Southeast toward or by the weekend. The coldest air will likely stay away from the region, but a small piece of this cold air could eventually move across parts of the region. As a result, temperatures will likely continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s with perhaps a few colder days through April 20. The closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above. Up north, excessive warmth will continue in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible through tomorrow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.08 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.285 today. On April 9 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.989(RMM). The April 8-adjusted amplitude was 2.076 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.3° (1.3° above normal).

Morning thoughts... It will be mostly cloudy with a period of rain this morning. Clouds will linger during the afternoon and a shower or thundershower is possible. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania could see temperatures top out in the upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 61° Newark: 61° Philadelphia: 69° Tomorrow will be much cooler with readings only in the lower and middle 50s.