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donsutherland1

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  1. A record-shattering cold air mass accompanied by rain changing to snow briefly transformed May into what should have been February. At New York City, the temperature fell to the lowest level in May since 1891. The afternoon saw wild skirmishes between approaching summer and retreating winter as they fought it out on the battlefield of May. The afternoon featured strong winds, unseasonable wind chill, sunshine, clouds, snow showers, and snow squalls. Record low temperatures this morning included: Baltimore: 34° (old record: 36°, 1966 and 2017) Binghamton: 24° (old record: 27°, 1966) Bridgeport: 35° (old record: 37°, 1966, 1976, and 1977) Islip: 34° (old record: 36°, 1977, 1985, and 1987) New York City-JFK: 34° (old record: 38°, 1977) New York City-LGA: 36° (old record: 37°, 1947) New York City-NYC: 34° (old record: 35°, 1947) Scranton: 29° (old record: 31°, 1966) White Plains: 32° (old record: 33°, 1977) Tonight, as the wind slackens, some additional record temperatures are likely. Generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will now likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 2.5° to as much as 5.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Moderation will likely commence near mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.46°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was +10.44 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.267. On May 8, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.401 (RMM). The May 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.325. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. That probability will increase markedly through mid-month as the coldest anomalies of the month take hold. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.0°.
  2. Today saw dramatic changes in the weather, as snow flurries, showers, and squalls moved through the region. Offshore snow squall Approaching snow squall During a snow squall Departing snow squall Departing snow squall
  3. More snow flurries. Across the Long Island Sound there looked to be an impressive snow shower on the North Shore.
  4. Central Park reached 34 degrees at 6 am. That set a new daily record and is the coldest May temperature since May 6, 1891.
  5. The temperature in Central Park is now 37 degrees. That is the coldest May reading in New York City since May 9, 1977 when the temperature fell to 36.
  6. Wonderful photo of the exceptionally late-season snow.
  7. Yes. The last time Central Park dropped below 40 in May was May 1, 1978 when the temperature fell to 38.
  8. At midnight, it was 41 degrees in New York City. That’s the coldest May temperature there since May 10, 2010 when the temperature also reached 41 degrees. North and west of the City, snow was falling in parts of New Jersey and New York State. Courthouse Square in Delhi, NY was covered in a blanket of snow. http://www.co.delaware.ny.us/webcam.htm
  9. A storm will track east-northeastward across the region tonight. As exceptionally cold air for the season works into the storm's circulation, the rain could change to snow or flurries before ending, north and west of Newark and New York City. Parts of northeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, central New York State eastward into New England could see a rare accumulation of snow in May. Except for higher elevations, any accumulations should be light. Earlier today, Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, and Rochester saw a trace of snow. As the storm moves away, the potential exists for near record to record low temperatures in parts of the region tomorrow morning. New York City could see its first May temperature in the 30s in more than 40 years. Daily record low temperatures for May 9 include: Albany: 27°, 1956 Allentown: 31°, 1947 and 1956 Atlantic City: 32°, 1947 and 1981 Binghamton: 27°, 1966 Boston: 35°, 1977 Bridgeport: 37°, 1966, 1976, and 1977 Harrisburg: 32°, 1947 Hartford: 28°, 1956 Islip: 36°, 1977, 1985, and 1987 New York City-JFK: 38°, 1977 New York City-LGA: 37°, 1947 New York City-NYC: 35°, 1947 Philadelphia: 33°, 1933 Poughkeepsie: 27°, 1950 and 1956 Providence: 29°, 1956 Scranton: 31°, 1966 White Plains: 33°, 1977 From 2000 through May 8, 2020 8 pm in New York City, there were 27 days on which the temperature fell to 45° or below in May; 16 days on which the temperature fell to 44° or below; 4 days on which the temperature fell to 43° or below; and, 3 days on which the temperature fell to 42° or below. The last time the temperature fell below given thresholds in May were as follows: Below 45°: 44°, May 15, 2019 Below 44°: 42°, May 13, 2019 Below 42°: 41°, May 10, 2010 Below 41°: 40°, May 6, 1992 Below 40°: 38°, May 1, 1978 Below 38°: 36°, May 9, 1977 Below 36°: 35°, May 9, 1947 Generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will now likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 2.5° to as much as 5.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Moderation will likely commence near mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.46°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was +5.38 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.946. On May 7, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.325 (RMM). The May 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.605. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. That probability will increase markedly through mid-month as the coldest anomalies of the month take hold. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.0°.
  10. Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures soared into the middle 60s across the region. This latest taste of spring will be short-lived. Another storm coming out of the Tennessee Valley could bring a cold rain to the region later tomorrow. As exceptionally cold air for the season works into the storm's circulation, the rain could change to snow tomorrow night, particularly north and west of Newark and New York City. Parts of northeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, central New York State eastward into New England could see a rare accumulation of snow in May. Generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will now likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 2.5° to as much as 5.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. During the cold, New York City could see among its lowest May readings since 2000. From 2000 through May 6, 2020, there were 26 days on which the temperature fell to 45° or below in May; 15 days on which the temperature fell to 44° or below; 4 days on which the temperature fell to 43° or below; and, 3 days on which the temperature fell to 42° or below. The last time the temperature fell below given thresholds in May were as follows: Below 45°: 44°, May 15, 2019 Below 44°: 42°, May 13, 2019 Below 42°: 41°, May 10, 2010 Below 41°: 40°, May 6, 1992 Below 40°: 38°, May 1, 1978 Below 38°: 36°, May 9, 1977 Below 36°: 35°, May 9, 1947 Moderation will likely commence near mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.46°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was -11.24 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.545. On May 6, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.605 (RMM). The May 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.640. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.
  11. Under mostly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the middle 60s. Two photos:
  12. That’s an error. That day, there was hail. The temperature range was 80-58.
  13. The system for today's light rain is now moving away. Light rain was still falling across eastern Long Island and eastern Connecticut. This evening's low temperature of 45°, was the coldest May reading since May 15, 2019 when the thermometer dipped to 44°. In the wake of the system, tomorrow should see sunshine with readings rebounding into the lower 60s. However, the respite will be short-lived. Another storm could bring a cold rain to the region on Friday. As exceptionally cold air for the season works into the storm's circulation, the rain could change to snow, particularly north and west of Newark and New York City. Parts of central New York State eastward into New England could feature a rare accumulation of snow in May. Generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will now likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 2.5° to as much as 5.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. During the cold, New York City could see among its lowest May readings since 2000. During 2000-2019, there were 25 days on which the temperature fell to 45° or below in May; 15 days on which the temperature fell to 44° or below; 4 days on which the temperature fell to 43° or below; and, 3 days on which the temperature fell to 42° or below. The last time the temperature fell below given thresholds in May were as follows: Below 45°: 44°, May 15, 2019 Below 44°: 42°, May 13, 2019 Below 42°: 41°, May 10, 2010 Below 41°: 40°, May 6, 1992 Below 40°: 38°, May 1, 1978 Below 38°: 36°, May 9, 1977 Below 36°: 35°, May 9, 1947 Moderation may commence near mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.46°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was -10.17 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.363. On May 5, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.645 (RMM). The May 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.041. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.
  14. Under gray skies, the arrival of light rain, and temperatures in the upper 40s, few people were outdoors this evening. The unseasonably chilly weather imposed social distancing in the parks where the effort had shown visible signs of fraying in recent days when sunshine was in abundant supply.
  15. A storm tracking northeastward off the North Carolina Coast will bring periods of rain and cool temperatures to the region tomorrow. Rainfall amounts are likely be be 0.25" or less except for southeastern New England where 0.50" to 1.00" with some locally higher amounts are possible. Generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will now likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 2.5° to as much as 5.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. During the cold, New York City could see among its lowest May readings since 2000. Since 2000, there were 25 days on which the temperature fell to 45° or below in May; 15 days on which the temperature fell to 44° or below; 4 days on which the temperature fell to 43° or below; and, 3 days on which the temperature fell to 42° or below. The last time the temperature fell below given thresholds in May were as follows: Below 45°: 44°, May 15, 2019 Below 44°: 42°, May 13, 2019 Below 42°: 41°, May 10, 2010 Below 41°: 40°, May 6, 1992 Below 40°: 38°, May 1, 1978 Moderation may commence near mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.46°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was -1.74 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.300. On May 4, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.050 (RMM). The May 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.393. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.
  16. Under bright sunshine the temperature rose into the lower 60 this afternoon after a brisk morning with temperatures in the 40s. Two photos:
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