donsutherland1

With 57.3” snow through yesterday, winter 2020-21 is now Allentown’s 8th snowiest winter on record.

Morning thoughts... The long-modeled milder period is now taking hold following yesterday’s snow event. It will be variably cloudy with a passing rain or snow shower. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower 40s in most of the region. Areas from Philadelphia and southward will likely reach the middle 40s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 43° Newark: 43° Philadelphia: 46° The thermometer could make a run at 50° tomorrow in many parts of the region. Most of the remainder of February will likely see temperatures average somewhat above normal.

JFK reported 0.4”, LGA: 0.6”, and NYC: 0.4”

I'm not surprised. There was no rainbow here, but the sky turned a reddish hue while a light rain continued to fall. Had the sun broken through, there would likely have been a rainbow up here.

I was not aware of that. Interestingly, there were no snow accumulation reports from Nassau County. Also, the local storm report for EWR showed 2.1" but the daily climate report shows 1.2". There's a transposition error on one of these reports.

A front moved across the region earlier today. Parts of the region saw a period of moderate to heavy snow. In many places, the snow changed to rain before ending. East of New York City, mainly or wholly rain fell. Milder conditions now lie ahead. Tomorrow will likely see the temperature top out in the lower and middle 40s. There could still be a snow flurry or some snow showers early in the day. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 50° on Wednesday before somewhat cooler air returns. Overall, a period of warmer than normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas into the first week of March and possibly beyond that. There could be some short-lived shots of cooler air. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March. The SOI was +18.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.041 today. On February 21 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.083 (RMM). The February 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.204. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of March. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.0° (2.3° below normal).

Two photos from this evening as the clouds began to break:

NYC has 38.6” and BOS has 38.4”.

Central Park: 0.4”

They should, but that doesn’t happen there consistently.

Philadelphia: 0.8”

EWR: 2.1”

The above pictures are from NYC’s suburbs (Scarsdale, Larchmont, and Mamaroneck). If anything stuck on Central Park’s snowboard after 1 pm, it will likely be washed away before the Park measures again at 7 pm. It seems that no measurement is made when the snow stops falling or no such measurement is made on a consistent basis.

Three photos from today’s snowfall:

It just flipped to rain in Larchmont. The change was abrupt, from heavy snow directly to rain.

A quick video clip:

Light snow just started falling in Larchmont.

People just to the west of the Schuylkill Expressway are reporting snow.

Morning thoughts... At 7:50 am, an area of heavy snow (likely 1”-1.5” per hour) was moving eastward across central Pennsylvania. That snow will continue to advance rapidly eastward. A period of rain or snow changing to rain will break out during the morning. New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia will likely pick up near 1” of snow. An area extending across northeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey and adjacent New York State, including Allentown, will likely see 2”-4” with local amounts of 6”. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 39° Newark: 39° Philadelphia: 39° Following today’s precipitation, most of the remainder of February will likely see temperatures average somewhat above normal. There may still be some opportunity for snowfall despite the milder regime.

I hope so. I’m glad to hear that your boss cares about safety.

Good luck with the snow. Be careful driving if you have to be on the road.

I believe that’s in or near the vicinity where the latest HREF is showing 6”-8” amounts.

It should be a fun event for the Lehigh Valley. It will be interesting to see if there are some localized 6” amounts and where they occur.

I think Philadelphia gets near 1” and Allentown receives 3”-4”.

In response to the Arctic Oscillation's having gone positive, a pattern change is now imminent. The advance of the milder air will be preceded by a storm that could bring snow changing to rain to most parts of the region tomorrow. From the Jersey Shore and across Long Island, little or no snow is likely this time around. New York City and Newark will likely pick up near 1" of snow. Across northeastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey, including Allentown, 2"-4" with local amounts of 6" is likely. A warmup will likely follow the storm. Tuesday will likely see the temperature top out in the lower and middle 40s. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 50° on Wednesday before somewhat cooler air arrives. Overall, a period of warmer than normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas into the first week of March and possibly beyond that. There could be some short-lived shots of cooler air. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March. The SOI was +19.79 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.454 today On February 20 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.204 (RMM). The February 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.285. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of March. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 27.7" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.9° (2.4° below normal).