donsutherland1

1 pm. An additional 0.06” precipitation fell as snow. The figure was not updated at 4 pm.

JFK: 4.3" LGA: 3.1" EWR: 4.0"

Since Central Park's 1 pm snowfall report, an additional 0.06" precipitation fell as snow. Yet, unlike JFK and LGA, Central Park reported no additional snowfall. Whether this will result in an undermeasurement remains to be seen, as sometimes Central Park is slow to report its figures.

With today’s snowfall, monthly figures are as follows: Bridgeport: 29.2” 4th snowiest February Islip: 21.4” 7th snowiest February New York City: 24.4” 10th snowiest February Newark: 27.6” 5th snowiest February

799 NOUS41 KOKX 181847 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-190647- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 147 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Fairfield 3.5 in 1237 PM 02/18 Public Bridgeport Airport 3.4 in 0100 PM 02/18 Official NWS Obs Redding 2.9 in 1230 PM 02/18 Cocorahs Stamford 2.9 in 1215 PM 02/18 Public ...Middlesex County... Clinton 1.5 in 1246 PM 02/18 Public ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... Ridgewood 3.6 in 1200 PM 02/18 Trained Spotter Ridgefield 3.2 in 1247 PM 02/18 Trained Spotter East Rutherford 2.8 in 1245 PM 02/18 Trained Spotter New Milford 2.0 in 1100 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter ...Essex County... Cedar Grove 3.3 in 1205 PM 02/18 Public South Orange 1.6 in 1000 AM 02/18 Public ...Hudson County... Harrison 3.1 in 0100 PM 02/18 CO-OP Observer ...Passaic County... Bloomingdale 3.4 in 1250 PM 02/18 Trained Spotter ...Union County... Plainfield 3.8 in 1225 PM 02/18 Trained Spotter Cranford 3.6 in 1230 PM 02/18 Trained Spotter Newark Airport 3.5 in 0100 PM 02/18 Official NWS Obs Elizabeth 3.4 in 1215 PM 02/18 Trained Spotter Linden 3.0 in 1230 PM 02/18 Amateur Radio Mountainside 2.7 in 1140 AM 02/18 Public 1 WSW Springfield 1.5 in 1032 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Summit 1.0 in 1040 AM 02/18 Public ...New York... ...Bronx County... East Tremont 1.0 in 1000 AM 02/18 Amateur Radio ...Kings County... 1 WNW Crown Heights 3.6 in 1230 PM 02/18 Trained Spotter 3 SE Flatbush 2.0 in 1100 AM 02/18 Emergency Mngr 2 W Flatbush 2.0 in 1000 AM 02/18 Public Bay Ridge 1.0 in 0802 AM 02/18 Public ...Nassau County... Levittown 3.0 in 1210 PM 02/18 Public Syosset 2.9 in 1200 PM 02/18 Trained Spotter New Hyde Park 2.7 in 1200 PM 02/18 Trained Spotter West Hempstead 2.5 in 1209 PM 02/18 Public Carle Place 2.3 in 1215 PM 02/18 NWS Employee East Williston 2.0 in 1115 AM 02/18 Public 2 WSW North Wantagh 1.5 in 1045 AM 02/18 Fire Dept/Rescue Seaford 1.4 in 1040 AM 02/18 Public ...New York County... 1 N Battery Park 4.0 in 1150 AM 02/18 Public Central Park 3.2 in 0100 PM 02/18 Official NWS Obs 1 N New York 2.5 in 1215 PM 02/18 Cocorahs Washington Heights 2.5 in 1058 AM 02/18 Public ...Queens County... Whitestone 3.5 in 1200 PM 02/18 Trained Spotter 1 WSW Elmhurst 3.4 in 1200 PM 02/18 Public Bayside 3.1 in 1151 AM 02/18 Public NYC/JFK 3.0 in 0100 PM 02/18 Official NWS Obs NYC/La Guardia 2.6 in 0100 PM 02/18 Official NWS Obs Flushing 2.0 in 1132 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Astoria 1.6 in 1258 PM 02/18 NWS Employee Jamaica 1.0 in 1000 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter ...Richmond County... 1 ESE Annadale 2.8 in 1100 AM 02/18 Public Westerleigh 2.6 in 1140 AM 02/18 Public ...Rockland County... Chestnut Ridge 1.2 in 1030 AM 02/18 Public ...Suffolk County... 2 S Deer Park 3.5 in 1215 PM 02/18 Public 1 WNW Babylon 3.3 in 1145 AM 02/18 Public Stony Brook 3.1 in 0100 PM 02/18 NWS Employee Babylon 3.0 in 0115 PM 02/18 Public 2 ESE Kings Park 2.7 in 1200 PM 02/18 Trained Spotter Farmingville 2.5 in 0100 PM 02/18 NWS Employee Upton 2.4 in 0100 PM 02/18 Official NWS Obs Islip Airport 2.2 in 0100 PM 02/18 Official NWS Obs Bay Shore 2.2 in 1239 PM 02/18 NWS Employee 1 NW Lindenhurst 1.5 in 0950 AM 02/18 Public ...Westchester County... 3 NNW Goldens Bridge 3.0 in 1240 PM 02/18 Public Croton-on-Hudson 3.0 in 1218 PM 02/18 Public &&

Steady light snow in Larchmont. Large flakes. Sleet has abated for now.

Sleet is now mixing in with the snow in Larchmont, NY as the precipitation lightens.

IEMBot PHI @iembot_phi · 3m At 10:54 AM EST, Wayne [Delaware Co, PA] TRAINED SPOTTER reports SNOW of 9.50 INCH. UPDATES PREVIOUS REPORT FROM WAYNE.

622 NOUS41 KPHI 181612 PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070- 071-101>106-190412- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1112 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Delaware... ...Kent County... 1 SSE Woodside 0.6 in 1023 AM 02/18 Public ...New Castle County... Hockessin 1.5 in 0940 AM 02/18 Public New Castle County Airport 0.1 in 0700 AM 02/18 ASOS 1 ESE Woodshade 0.1 in 0712 AM 02/18 Public ...New Jersey... ...Burlington County... Florence 5.2 in 1000 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter 1 ESE Delran 2.1 in 0710 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Mount Laurel 1.7 in 1005 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Cinnaminson 1.2 in 0814 AM 02/18 Public 1 ENE Westampton Twp 1.2 in 0930 AM 02/18 Official NWS Obs 1 WNW South Jersey Regional 1.1 in 1040 AM 02/18 NWS Employee 1 NE Marlton 0.7 in 1100 AM 02/18 Public 1 ESE Leisuretowne 0.5 in 1028 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter ...Gloucester County... Deptford Twp 0.5 in 0650 AM 02/18 Public West Deptford Twp 0.5 in 0908 AM 02/18 Public West Deptford Twp 0.5 in 1041 AM 02/18 Public 2 W Pitman 0.3 in 0927 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter ...Hunterdon County... Whitehouse Station 1.5 in 0813 AM 02/18 Public ...Mercer County... Trenton 8.0 in 1048 AM 02/18 Public Hamilton Twp 7.9 in 1013 AM 02/18 Public 1 SE Robbinsville Twp. 6.7 in 0933 AM 02/18 Public 2 W Yardville 6.0 in 0808 AM 02/18 Public Robbinsville Twp. 6.0 in 0915 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Hightstown 4.6 in 0700 AM 02/18 CO-OP Observer Ewing 4.5 in 1044 AM 02/18 NWS Employee Yardville 2.9 in 0723 AM 02/18 Public 3 NW Pennington 2.8 in 1030 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter ...Middlesex County... Cranbury 3.9 in 1000 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter East Brunswick 3.0 in 1030 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter ...Monmouth County... Freehold 6.5 in 0945 AM 02/18 Public Eatontown 6.3 in 0915 AM 02/18 Public 2 N Tinton Falls 5.0 in 0839 AM 02/18 Public 1 NW Sea Bright 5.0 in 1019 AM 02/18 Public Manalapan Township 4.3 in 0904 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Freehold Twp 3.4 in 0913 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Strathmore 2.0 in 0900 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Howell 1.8 in 0830 AM 02/18 Public ...Morris County... Lake Hopatcong 1.4 in 1043 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter ...Ocean County... Jackson 2.8 in 0900 AM 02/18 NWS Employee Brick 1.5 in 0927 AM 02/18 Public Jackson 1.0 in 0915 AM 02/18 Public ...Somerset County... Branchburg Twp 1.0 in 0826 AM 02/18 Public ...Warren County... Blairstown 1.5 in 1044 AM 02/18 Cocorahs ...Pennsylvania... ...Berks County... Spring Twp 4.0 in 1037 AM 02/18 Public Morgantown 3.0 in 1000 AM 02/18 Public 1 ENE Hamburg 2.0 in 1019 AM 02/18 Public 1 N Union Twp 1.0 in 0825 AM 02/18 Public ...Bucks County... Feasterville-Trevose 8.0 in 0949 AM 02/18 Public 1 NNW Eddington 7.0 in 1000 AM 02/18 Public Langhorne 6.7 in 0915 AM 02/18 Public Morrisville 6.5 in 0830 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Lower Makefield Twp 6.5 in 1000 AM 02/18 Public 1 W Levittown 6.0 in 0809 AM 02/18 Public Fairless Hills 6.0 in 1046 AM 02/18 Public Newtown 5.5 in 0848 AM 02/18 Public Bensalem 5.5 in 0914 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Warminster 5.0 in 0939 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Richboro 4.5 in 0906 AM 02/18 Public 2 ESE Newtown 3.5 in 0700 AM 02/18 Cocorahs Newtown Grant 3.1 in 1059 AM 02/18 Public West Rockhill Twp 2.5 in 0942 AM 02/18 Public Sellersville 2.5 in 0952 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Bristol 2.3 in 0849 AM 02/18 Public Quakertown 2.3 in 1000 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Trumbauersville 2.2 in 1107 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Trumbauersville 1.2 in 0915 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter New Hope 0.3 in 0640 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter ...Carbon County... 2 S Meckesville 0.5 in 0941 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter ...Chester County... Malvern 9.0 in 0950 AM 02/18 Public 2 N East Goshen Twp. 8.0 in 0944 AM 02/18 Public West Goshen 8.0 in 1000 AM 02/18 Public East Fallowfield Twp 7.8 in 0942 AM 02/18 Public Downington 7.8 in 1016 AM 02/18 Public Paoli 7.5 in 0900 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter East Brandywine Twp 7.5 in 0948 AM 02/18 Public Parkesburg 7.3 in 1017 AM 02/18 Public Berwyn 7.0 in 0800 AM 02/18 Public Exton 7.0 in 0900 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter 1 WNW Uwchlan Twp 7.0 in 1030 AM 02/18 Public Uwchlan Twp 6.0 in 0950 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Phoenixville 5.6 in 1000 AM 02/18 Public East Nantmeal Twp 5.5 in 1004 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Schuylkill Twp 4.5 in 0900 AM 02/18 Public West Caln Twp 4.5 in 0900 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Coatesville 4.0 in 0608 AM 02/18 Public Pughtown 4.0 in 0904 AM 02/18 Public East Coventry Twp 4.0 in 1000 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter 2 S Wallace Twp 3.5 in 0900 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Spring City 3.0 in 0905 AM 02/18 Public Jennersville 2.6 in 0945 AM 02/18 Public Modena 2.5 in 0533 AM 02/18 Public New London Twp. 2.2 in 1003 AM 02/18 Public West Chester 2.1 in 1000 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Oxford 1.5 in 0800 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Lincoln University 1.1 in 0830 AM 02/18 Public ...Delaware County... Wayne 8.7 in 0925 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Clifton Heights 3.0 in 0700 AM 02/18 Public Brookhaven 3.0 in 1026 AM 02/18 Public 1 NE Lawrence Park 2.5 in 0930 AM 02/18 Public Thornton 2.1 in 1000 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter 1 E Upper Chichester Twp 2.0 in 1031 AM 02/18 Public Upper Darby 1.5 in 0819 AM 02/18 Public Chadds Ford Twp 1.3 in 0847 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Upper Chichester Twp 0.6 in 0640 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Folsom 0.5 in 0659 AM 02/18 Public ...Lehigh County... Macungie 3.0 in 1025 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter 2 ESE Lehigh Valley Internat 3.0 in 1050 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Breinigsville 2.8 in 1020 AM 02/18 Public New Tripoli 1.5 in 0900 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Lehigh Valley International 0.2 in 0700 AM 02/18 ASOS ...Montgomery County... King of Prussia 8.5 in 1012 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Norristown 8.1 in 0949 AM 02/18 Public Whitemarsh Twp 8.0 in 0940 AM 02/18 Public Abington 7.8 in 0917 AM 02/18 Public Glenside 7.3 in 0941 AM 02/18 Public 2 WNW Lower Moreland Twp 7.0 in 0920 AM 02/18 Public Valley Forge 7.0 in 1040 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Conshohocken 6.0 in 0858 AM 02/18 Public Hatboro 5.0 in 0848 AM 02/18 Public 1 W Ambler 5.0 in 0907 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Plymouth Meeting 4.3 in 0830 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Jenkintown 4.0 in 0814 AM 02/18 Public Blue Bell 4.0 in 0832 AM 02/18 Public Skippack Twp 3.5 in 1041 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter New Hanover Twp 3.3 in 1100 AM 02/18 Public Bala Cynwyd 3.2 in 1000 AM 02/18 Public Lansdale 3.0 in 0945 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Spring Mount 2.8 in 0930 AM 02/18 Public Eagleville 2.0 in 0730 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Ambler 0.3 in 0800 AM 02/18 CO-OP Observer ...Northampton County... Nazareth 2.8 in 1035 AM 02/18 Public Martins Creek 1.4 in 0930 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter ...Philadelphia County... Mount Airy 5.5 in 0930 AM 02/18 Public Northeast Philadelphia 4.0 in 0823 AM 02/18 Public Manayunk 2.5 in 0815 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter 1 SE Point Breeze 2.3 in 1059 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Fox Chase 2.2 in 0905 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter Philadelphia 2.0 in 0951 AM 02/18 Public Philadelphia International A 0.6 in 0700 AM 02/18 ASOS ...FREEZING RAIN REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Delaware... ...New Castle County... New Castle County Airport 0.07 in 0951 AM 02/18 ASOS ...Sussex County... Delaware Coastal Airport 0.20 in 0954 AM 02/18 ASOS 2 NNE Harbeson 0.10 in 0947 AM 02/18 CO-OP Observer ...New Jersey... ...Atlantic County... 1 NW Atlantic City Internati 0.05 in 0854 AM 02/18 ASOS ...Cumberland County... Millville Municipal Airport 0.08 in 0954 AM 02/18 ASOS ...Gloucester County... Williamstown 0.05 in 0930 AM 02/18 Trained Spotter &&

Light snow:

Light snow has commenced in Larchmont, NY. The flakes are small, but the streets are already dusted.

Unfortunately, the MPO station does not report snowfall amounts on a regular basis.

I don’t have the calculation, but there are some papers that suggest that it is more accurate than the mean, because it addresses ensemble member bias.

Morning thoughts... A complex system in which a primary storm will transfer energy to a slowly-developing offshore system will bring a general 4”-8” snowfall across much of the region through tomorrow. Already, parts of Pennsylvania have experienced heavy snow. Valley Forge has picked up 3.3” with 2.0” falling within the span of an hour. Wayne has seen 5.0” with 3.0” reported in under 2 hours. Snow will overspread the New York City area and north and west of the City early this morning. A period of sleet and freezing rain or even plain rain is likely at some point today, especially along Long Island’s South Shore and the Jersey Shore. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 32° Newark: 32° Philadelphia: 31° Additional light snow with perhaps a period of moderate snow is likely tomorrow. Through February 17, New York City has received 21.2” snow this month, which ranks as the 14th snowiest February on record. At Newark, 24.1” has fallen, which ranks 9th highest. With 4” snow, February 2021 will rank as New York City’s 7th snowiest February and Newark’s 5th snowiest February. With 6” snow, February 2021 would rank as both cities’ 4th snowiest February on record. In the long-range, there is consensus among the ensembles that a sustained milder pattern will develop around or just after February 20.

The probability matched mean is even better:

The upcoming complex system will provide a good test for the GFSv16. Over the last 5 cycles (2/17 0z through 2/18 0z), the GFSv16 has had much better run-to-run continuity than the GFS. The standard deviation for three select cities follows: ABE: GFS: 0.87”; GFSv16: 0.67” NYC: GFS: 1.46”; GFSv16: 0.54” PHL: GFS: 1.60”; GFSv16: 0.68” Snowfall Amounts: ABE: 2/17 0z: GFS: 7.1”; GFSv16: 6.3” and 2/18 0z: GFS: 6.3”; GFSv16: 5.2” NYC: 2/17 0z: GFS: 7.6”; GFSv16: 4.8” and 2/18 0z: GFS: 4.4”; GFSv16: 5.5” PHL: 2/17 0z: GFS: 7.1”; GFSv16: 7.4” and 2/18 0z: GFS: 4.9”; GFSv16: 7.3”

I will do so in all future references. Allentown: 47.7” (24.8” above normal)

That’s amazing. Many move to different forecast offices from time to time. Mount Holly is fortunate to have a meteorologist who has devoted a substantial part of his career to the region.

Thanks. I recall you were at Mount Holly, at least you were in the past.

Welcome back. Are you still with the NWS?

February has been a snowy month in parts of the Middle Atlantic region. New York City and Newark have seen especially high amounts of snow. Seasonal snowfall amounts through 4 pm February 17 include: Albany: 50.2" (7.8" above normal) Baltimore: 9.2" (6.4" below normal) Binghamton: 84.5" (27.4" above normal) ***29th highest*** Boston: 32.7" (2.9" above normal) Bridgeport: 38.9" (20.5" above normal) Buffalo: 65.4" (7.0" below normal) Burlington: 54.9" (0.3" above normal) Caribou: 73.1" (0.9" below normal) Harrisburg: 28.2" (7.0" above normal) Islip: 27.8" (11.0" above normal) New York City: 33.8" (16.0" above normal) Newark: 39.2" (19.7" above normal) Philadelphia: 19.7" (3.6" above normal) Portland: 38.5" (3.3" below normal) Providence: 26.8" (2.3" above normal) Washington, DC: 4.7" (7.5" below normal) More snowfall is imminent. A storm will likely bring a moderate to locally significant snowfall to parts of the Northeast tomorrow through Friday. A general 4"-8" snowfall with locally higher amounts is likely across much of the region, including New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. In response to the Arctic Oscillation's having gone positive, a pattern change will likely occur starting on or just after February 20. Following the shift in the prevailing pattern, a period of warmer than normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. A dramatic increase in the Arctic Oscillation, as has just occurred with the AO rising just over 6 sigma during the February 11-17 period, has sometimes coincided with storminess. Therefore, the February 14-24 period might offer a window of opportunity for a meaningful storm. Since 1950, there were 11 cases during the January 16-February 28 timeframe that saw the AO rise at least 3 sigma from a minimum value of -4.000 or below within a 7-day period. Four cases saw a major snowstorm in parts of the Middle Atlantic or New England regions within 3 weeks of the AO's reaching its minimum value. The dates of the AO's minimum value for those four cases with storm dates in parentheses are January 25, 1958 (February 14-17, 1958 NESIS: 6.25), January 19, 1969 (February 8-10, 1969 NESIS: 3.51), February 15, 1969 (February 22-28, 1969 NESIS: 4.29), and January 16, 2016 (January 22-24, 2016 NESIS: 7.66). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March. The SOI was +28.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.703 today On February 16 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.375 (RMM). The February 15-adjusted amplitude was 2.675. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the closing days of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 23.3" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.9° (2.4° below normal).

Winter 2020-21 has witnessed persistent and deep blocking with at least one bout of extreme blocking (-4.000 or below). The end result has been above average snowfall in New York City. To date, the December-February has averaged -2.215, 85% of days have seen the AO at or below -1.000, and the AO reached a minimum value of -5.314. That fits the cluster of winters with AO conditions that are conducive to above average snowfall. For purposes of illustration, I ran the data for winters 1950-51 through 2019-20 for snowfall at New York City's Central Park. Daily AO data was first reported on January 1, 1950. To assure consistency with all winter cases, I used the December 1-February 28 timeframe. There were three broad clusters: Cluster 1: Deep and persistent blocking with one or more extreme blocking episodes: AO average: -0.500 or below Days with the AO at or below -1.000: 50% or more Lowest AO value: -4.000 or below Cases (winters): 14 (20% of winters) Average seasonal snowfall: 37.1" Least seasonal snowfall: 16.3", 1962-63 Most seasonal snowfall: 75.6", 1995-96 Distribution: < 10" seasonal snowfall: 0% cases < 20" seasonal snowfall: 7% cases 20" or more seasonal snowfall: 93% cases 30" or more seasonal snowfall: 57% cases 40" or more seasonal snowfall: 29% cases 50" or more seasonal snowfall: 29% cases Cluster 2: Lack of deep and persistent blocking with no extreme blocking episodes: AO average: +0.500 or above Days with the AO at or below -1.000: Less than 50% days Lowest AO value: Above -4.000 Cases (winters): 12 (17% of winters) Average seasonal snowfall: 17.9" Least seasonal snowfall: 2.8", 1972-73 Most seasonal snowfall: 50.3", 2014-15 Distribution: < 10" seasonal snowfall: 17% cases < 20" seasonal snowfall: 75% cases 20" or more seasonal snowfall: 25% cases 30" or more seasonal snowfall: 8% cases 40" or more seasonal snowfall: 8% cases 50" or more seasonal snowfall: 8% cases Cluster 3: All other winters Cases (winters): 44 (63% of winters) Average seasonal snowfall: 25.1" Least seasonal snowfall: 3.5", 2001-02 Most seasonal snowfall: 57.4", 2013-14 Distribution: < 10" seasonal snowfall: 9% cases < 20" seasonal snowfall: 45% cases 20" or more seasonal snowfall: 55% cases 30" or more seasonal snowfall: 30% cases 40" or more seasonal snowfall: 25% cases 50" or more seasonal snowfall: 9% cases

The December 16-17 snowstorm offered a big clue that this would turn out to be a snowy winter.

Morning thoughts... Yesterday’s mild temperatures are now in the past. Today will be sunny but much cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 33° Newark: 33° Philadelphia: 33° A storm will bring a widespread 4”-8” snowfall to the region, which has already seen above to much above normal snowfall this month. Through February 16, New York City has received 21.2” snow this month, which ranks as the 14th snowiest February on record. At Newark, 24.1” has fallen, which ranks 9th highest. With 4” snow, February 2021 will rank as New York City’s 7th snowiest February and Newark’s 5th snowiest February. With 6” snow, February 2021 would rank as both cities’ 4th snowiest February on record. In the long-range, there is consensus among the ensembles that a sustained milder pattern will develop around or just after February 20.