donsutherland1

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Dynamics suggest more QPF than modeled. That’s part of the reason OKX is more aggressive than what is modeled. We’ll know tomorrow how things worked out.

He’s alive, but retired.

You’re welcome. Hopefully, the snow shield will be more expansive on the other guidance and on later runs.

GDPS.

Here’s the top 10 on XMACIS: Maximum 8-Day Total Snowfall for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2021-02-05 1 29.2 1947-12-30 0 - 29.2 1947-12-29 0 - 29.2 1947-12-28 0 4 28.9 1947-12-27 0 5 28.6 1947-12-26 0 6 27.9 2016-01-24 0 - 27.9 2016-01-23 0 8 27.5 2016-01-29 0 - 27.5 2016-01-28 0 - 27.5 2016-01-27 0

It has been a very snowy period. It will be interesting to see how things stack up over a 2- or 3-week period, as there may be some additional snowfall opportunities.

Morning thoughts... Through February 5, New York City has seen 15.4” snowfall for the month. With a moderate to significant snowfall likely tomorrow, Central Park could see 20” monthly snowfall for the first time in February since 2014 when 29.0” snow accumulated. Today will be mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 40° Newark: 40° Philadelphia: 44° Snow will overspread the region before sunrise tomorrow. Snow will then fall moderately to occasionally heavily at times into the afternoon. A general 4”-8” snowfall with locally higher amounts is likely.

As bad as the 21z SREFs were, there could be worse. EPS member e17 forecast no snow whatsoever for New York City through February 20. In reality, the guidance has remained relatively consistent with the usual inter-cycle shifting since 12z. As such, much of the region from central New Jersey north and eastward across Newark and New York City and Long Island, and along the southern New England coastline remains in line for a solid 4”-8” snowfall with locally higher amounts. For those who are interested, EPS member e03 was the snowiest member, showing 37” snow through February 20.

JFK is 20.0”.

Nassau County is in a good spot for this storm.

In the wake of today's light precipitation event, the weekend will start fair and seasonably cold. However, a fast moving storm will bring a swath of snow across parts of the region on Sunday with the highest amounts occurring along the coastline from central New Jersey to southern New England, including Long Island. Initial snowfall estimates for select cities: Boston: 4"-8" Bridgeport: 4"-8 Islip: 4"-8" New York City: 4"-8" Newark: 4"-8" Philadelphia: 3"-6" Poughkeepsie: 2"-4" Providence: 5"-10" Up in Canada's Nunavut Province, temperatures will reach record high levels tomorrow through at least Monday. That push of exceptional warmth will dislodge a frigid Arctic air mass currently located over northwestern Canada. That cold air mass will likely enter the Northern Plains States early next week. Afterward, it could slowly advance eastward and possibly reach the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions just before mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +8.26 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.773 today. On February 4 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.998 (RMM). The February 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.987. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the second week of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 17.5" snow.

Is that an old forecast? The guidance has grown more robust at 12z.

It sometimes overshoots. One should also use the maximum temperature algorithm for a better perspective. Here’s a paper on the Cobb Method: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1013&context=geoscidiss

That was a nice storm. New York City picked up just over 5” and there were widespread 6” or above amounts in the suburbs.

Morning thoughts... To date, Central Park has picked up 28.0” snow this season. As a result, New York City is on the cusp of its first 30” snow season since winter 2017-18 when 40.9” snow was recorded. Both the AO and NAO are likely to remain negative through mid-month. The NAO is forecast to bottom out near February 8. Overall, the pattern remains favorable for Middle Atlantic and/or southern New England snow threats. In the first volume of their Northeast Snowstorms monograph, Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini observed that “the weather patterns occurring during the negative phase of the NAO appear to establish conditions conducive to the formation of Northeast snowstorms, especially by locking in colder air throughout the Northeast.” They continued, “The transition period for the NAO also suggests that those conditions may ‘relax’ just prior to or during the storm.” February 7-8 continues to offer one potential timeframe for a storm threat, both based on the observations of Kocin and Uccellini and also a renewed clustering of EPS members with support from some of the operational guidance. Overall, a 2”-4”/3”-6” snowfall for Boston, Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Providence with perhaps locally higher amounts appears to be a reasonable scenario. The highest amounts will likely occur from New York City eastward across Long Island and across the southern New England coastline. Today will be mostly cloudy and seasonably cold. Some rain showers are likely near the coast while some snow and rain showers are likely well inland. Clouds could begin to break during the afternoon. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 41° Newark: 42° Philadelphia: 45° Tomorrow will be mainly sunny and a little cooler. Afterward, a storm will likely bring accumulating snow to the region on Sunday.

Just last Thursday, they featured a lot of warmth for the week of February 8-14. March is outside their useful range. Eventually, the pattern will break. But before then there should be more cold and snow, possibly a bout of severe cold.

Sunshine returned today. In response, temperatures rose into the lower 40s. Another shot of cold air will likely arrive during or after the coming weekend. That push of cold air could be preceded by a storm. At present, there continues to be uncertainty about the track and impact of the storm. At least a light or moderate impact remains possible for parts of the region, especially coastal areas and Long Island. Recent guidance has begun to move toward at such a snowfall. Meanwhile, up in Canada's Nunavut Province, temperatures will likely surge to record high levels tomorrow through at least Sunday. That push of exceptional warmth will dislodge a frigid Arctic air mass currently located over northwestern Canada. That cold air mass will likely enter the Northern Plains States early next week. Afterward, it could slowly advance eastward and possibly reach the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions just before mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +19.12 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.981 today. On February 3 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.982 (RMM). The February 2-adjusted amplitude was 2.386. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the second week of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 17.5" snow.

It happened in 1926: February 3-4: 10.4” February 9-10: 12.0”

There's a lot of uncertainty. The GFSv16 took a step toward a snowier solution at 6z.

And one run of the UKMET.

TPV = tropopause polar vortex

Yes, I recall them. While snow depth can shrink much faster that what was described in my message, typically one would see similar changes throughout the region. When one location is reporting a much bigger change in snow cover relative to another part in the same broad area, but there are no variables to explain the difference (including mesoscale factors such as localized rain), that is often an indication of a bad measurement.

Yes. Flushing in Queens reported 13.5”. So, east of there a lot of snow also fell. Out at the Twin Forks, there was less snow e.g., Cutchogue on the North Fork picked up 8.0”.

Morning thoughts... At 8 am, the last snow showers associated with the departing storm responsible for this week’s heavy snowfall were located in eastern Massachusetts. Today will be mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 40° Newark: 41° Philadelphia: 39° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with some rain and possibly snow showers. Snow showers will likely be confined north and west of Newark and New York City. During tomorrow and the weekend, temperatures could surge to record high levels in Canada’s Nunavut Province. That push of that warmth will dislodge a very cold air mass from northwestern Canada. It remains to be seen whether that air mass will eventually push into the region. If so, it likely would not arrive until late next week.