donsutherland1

A very snowy February is nearing its conclusion. There could be some additional snowfall tomorrow in Central Park. Areas to the west of New York City should pick up 1"-3" snow with 2"-4" and localized higher amounts running across northeastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey. How March fares in terms of snowfall will depend, at least in part, on the monthly mean temperature. The monthly mean temperature explains nearly 30% of the City's March snowfall. March Temperatures and Snowfall (New York City):

That’s a one day chart. Here’s how the Arctic above 80N has fared:

From CPC:

The 12z NAM and 3 km NAM have shifted the eastern edge of accumulating snow a little close to NYC than the 6z run. The area around Allentown and its immediate north and west looks to be in line for the heaviest amounts, a theme consistent with a lot of the other guidance though 6z.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and cold. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 36° Newark: 36° Philadelphia: 37° A period of rain or snow changing to rain is likely tomorrow. Some accumulation is likely, especially north and west of New York City. New York City could receive a small accumulation. The remainder of the week will likely see readings generally somewhat above seasonal norms. Meanwhile, parts of China, Japan, and South Korea experienced historic February warmth earlier today. At Beijing, the temperature soared to 79°. That broke the February mark of 69° set just yesterday. The prior record was 68°, which was set on February 13, 1996.

That was 9.1” in December. March had 17.4” snow.

The last snow flurries and snow showers departed the region early today. Most of the area saw partly sunny skies. Seasonal snowfall totals and anomalies following the most recent storm are: Albany: 52.1" (8.1" above normal) Allentown: 53.2" (24.2" above normal) ***11th highest*** Baltimore: 10.1" (6.3" below normal) Binghamton: 87.4" (28.4" above normal) ***27th highest*** Boston: 38.4" (7.4" above normal) Bridgeport: 43.3" (24.0" above normal) Buffalo: 67.1" (7.1" below normal) Burlington: 55.8" (0.5" below normal) Caribou: 73.1" (3.2" below normal) Harrisburg: 32.4" (10.0" above normal) Islip: 33.1" (15.4" above normal) New York City: 38.2" (19.4" above normal) Newark: 44.5" (23.9" above normal) ***14th highest*** Philadelphia: 23.1" (6.1" above normal) Portland: 40.8" (2.2" below normal) Providence: 33.5" (8.0" above normal) Washington, DC: 5.4" (7.4" below normal) In response to the Arctic Oscillation's having gone positive, a pattern change will likely occur early next week. The advance of the milder air could be preceded by a storm that could bring some rain or snow changing to rain to parts of the region. Following the shift in the prevailing pattern, a period of warmer than normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March. The SOI was +21.71 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.494 today On February 19 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.284 (RMM). The February 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.477. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of March. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 27.7" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.9° (2.4° below normal).

A photo from this afternoon:

I hope all goes well for her surgery.

There was a short-lived very light snow flurry in Larchmont, NY a short time ago.

It’s less relevant as the wave lengths shorten.

With respect to March snowfall following February snowfall of 20” or more in New York City: 16 cases Least: None, 1894 Most: 17.4”, 1967 < 1”: 5 (31%) cases 1” or more: 11 (69%) cases 2” or more: 9 (56%) cases 4” or more: 8 (50%) cases 6” or more: 6 (38%) cases 10” or more: 3 (19%) cases There were no cases following February snowfall of 20” or more (n=16) when March was snowier than February. There was one case following February snowfall of 15” or more (n=27) where March was snowier than February. That occurred during winter 1913-14 when February saw 17.4” snow and March saw 21.5” snow. Most of that winter’s March snowfall fell during the March 1-2 blizzard which dumped 14.5” snow.

Morning thoughts... At 8:55 am, an area of light snow was moving southward over central Long Island. Snow was falling at Huntington Station, Smithtown, Brentwood, and Patchogue. The snow will end later this morning with the sun returning. Elsewhere, the region will be partly sunny and cold. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 33° Newark: 34° Philadelphia: 33° Tomorrow will be another fair and cold day. Next week could see the development of a sustained milder pattern. That milder air could be preceded by some rain or snow changing to rain. Some accumulation is possible, especially north and west of New York City.

2021 has had 12 days with a trace or more of snow. The February record is 16 days, which was set in 1923.

NYC has now received 25.6” snow this month, which ranks as the 8th snowiest February on record.

With today's additional snowfall, monthly snowfall totals have reached the following amounts in select cities: Allentown: 34.7" (3rd snowiest February) Bridgeport: 29.8" (4th snowiest February) Islip: 23.8" (6th snowiest February) New York City-JFK: 26.0" (3rd snowiest February) New York City-LGA: 22.5" (6th snowiest February) New York City-NYC: 25.6" (8th snowiest February) Newark: 29.4" (5th snowiest February) A fair and cold weekend now lies ahead. In response to the Arctic Oscillation's having gone positive, a pattern change will likely occur early next week. The advance of the milder air could be preceded by a storm that could bring some rain or snow changing to rain to parts of the region. Following the shift in the prevailing pattern, a period of warmer than normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March. The SOI was +22.82 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.829 today On February 18 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.477 (RMM). The February 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.901. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the end of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 27.7" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.0° (2.3° below normal).

Light snow continued to fall into the evening providing a fresh coating. Two photos:

Select storm total snowfall: Bridgeport: 4.0” Islip: 4.2” New York City-JFK: 4.5” New York City-LGA: 3.8” New York City-NYC: 4.0” Newark: 4.9” Upton: 4.3”

It’s possible. One isn’t dealing with an exceptionally warm pattern.

0.06” precipitation fell as snow after 1 pm. That never made it into the total and was the difference in failing to set a daily snowfall record. Quite frankly, this provides an example of the need to strengthen quality control related to data. This isn’t unique to Central Park. It would be useful for measurements to be flagged for review when snow falls at temperatures consistent with accumulations and nearby sites (in this case JFK and LGA reported additional accumulations). Quality control with temperatures is robust. With snowfall, there is latitude for improvement.

An area of light snow moved through Larchmont and Mamaroneck coating the ground, including the streets. A short video clip from Mamaroneck, NY:

985 NOUS41 KOKX 191436 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-200236- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 936 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 ...FREEZING RAIN REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Bridgeport Airport 0.16 in 0700 AM 02/19 ASOS Danbury Airport 0.03 in 0700 AM 02/19 ASOS ...New Haven County... New Haven Airport 0.11 in 0700 AM 02/19 ASOS Meriden Airport 0.04 in 0700 AM 02/19 ASOS Guilford T in 0700 AM 02/19 CO-OP Observer ...New London County... Groton Airport 0.06 in 0700 AM 02/19 ASOS ...New Jersey... ...Essex County... Caldwell Airport 0.14 in 0700 AM 02/19 ASOS ...Passaic County... Bloomingdale T in 0720 PM 02/18 Trained Spotter ...New York... ...Kings County... 1 SSW Flatbush 0.13 in 0900 AM 02/19 Broadcast Media ...Nassau County... Plainview T in 0400 PM 02/18 NWS Employee ...New York County... Central Park 0.08 in 0700 AM 02/19 ASOS ...Suffolk County... Westhampton 0.18 in 0700 AM 02/19 ASOS Islip Airport 0.17 in 0700 AM 02/19 ASOS Shirley Airport 0.10 in 0700 AM 02/19 ASOS Farmingdale Airport T in 0700 AM 02/19 ASOS Stony Brook T in 0430 PM 02/18 Trained Spotter Deer Park T in 0400 AM 02/18 Public ...Westchester County... White Plains 0.01 in 0700 AM 02/19 ASOS && Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official. $$

Morning thoughts... As an offshore system—part two of the storm that brought a moderate snowfall to much of the region yesterday—develops, periods of light snow and flurries are likely today. There could be one or two bursts of moderate snow. Overall, some parts of the area could pick up 1”-2” of snow. Parts of eastern New England could be in line for 2”-4” with some locally higher amounts. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 34° Newark: 34° Philadelphia: 35° Once the system departs, a mainly sunny and cool weekend lies ahead. Next week could see the development of a sustained milder pattern. That milder air could be preceded by some rain or snow changing to rain. Some accumulation is possible, especially north and west of New York City. Before then, enjoy the snow that has fallen. As 16th century Italian author Pietro Aretino advised, “Let us love winter, for it is the spring of genius.”

With today's snowfall, a number of locations set daily snowfall records for February 18. Those locations included: Allentown: 4.3" (old record: 3.9", 2000) Bridgeport: 4.0" (tied record set in 2000) Islip: 3.9" (old record: 2.0", 2014) New York City-JFK: 4.3" (old record: 2.1", 2000) New York City-LGA: 3.1" (old record: 2.5", 2000) Newark: 4.0" (old record: 3.1", 2000) February 2021 now ranks as among the 10 snowiest February cases on records in numerous parts of the northern Middle Atlantic region. Monthly snowfall figures include: Allentown: 33.5" (5th snowiest February) Bridgeport: 29.8" (4th snowiest February) Islip: 23.1" (6th snowiest February) New York City-JFK: 25.3" (4th snowiest February) New York City-LGA: 21.5" (7th snowiest February) New York City-NYC: 24.4" (10th snowiest February) Newark: 28.1" (5th snowiest February) Newark surpassed 40.0" seasonal snowfall for the first time since winter 2014-15 when 46.4" was recorded. To date, Newark has seen 43.2" snow. Allentown reached 50.0" seasonal snowfall for the first time since winter 2014-15 when 50.1" was measured. With 52.0" snow to date, Allentown has seen the most snowfall since winter 2013-14 when 68.1" snow fell. Some additional light accumulations are possible overnight and again tomorrow. In response to the Arctic Oscillation's having gone positive, a pattern change will likely occur starting on or just after February 20. Following the shift in the prevailing pattern, a period of warmer than normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March. The SOI was +29.40 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.694 today On February 17 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.900 (RMM). The February 16-adjusted amplitude was 2.378. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the end of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 26.5" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.0° (2.3° below normal).

Yes. The possible failure to measure could make all the difference in this case.