donsutherland1

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly cloudy. Additional snow showers and periods of light snow with possible light accumulations are likely across parts of the region. Parts of northeastern Pennsylvania into southern New York State could pick up several inches of snow. Temperatures will likely reach the mainly the middle 30s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 35° Newark: 37° Philadelphia: 36° Clouds could break in parts of the region tomorrow. In the extended range, the EPS ensemble members are clustered around February 7-8 for possible measurable snow. 30-Day Verification: Period ended January 31 New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 39.8° Average temperature: 39.5° Average error: 1.3° Newark: Average daily forecast: 41.3° Average temperature: 41.0° Average error: 1.5° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 42.2° Average temperature: 41.8° Average error: 1.4°

The closest I could find was Irvington (1 NE): 20.3”.

At 7:00 PM EST, Bloomingdale [Passaic Co, NJ] TRAINED SPOTTER reports HEAVY SNOW of 25.20 INCH

I guess we'll have to wait until tomorrow morning unless an update is issued before the daily climate report is issued.

055 SXUS71 KOKX 020034 RRA RERNYC RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 734 PM EST MON FEB 01 2021 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY... AS OF 7 PM TODAY...A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 14.3 INCHES WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 9.8 INCHES SET IN 1934. ALSO...THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF OF 16.3 INCHES THUS FAR RANKS AS THE 17TH HIGHEST OF RECORD AT CENTRAL PARK. THE OFFICIAL RECORD OF OBSERVATIONS AT THE PARK DATES BACK TO 1869. THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED LATER TONIGHT AS SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. $$ GOODMAN

Much of New Jersey, northeastern Pennsylvania, southeastern New York State, and southwestern Connecticut picked up a foot or more of snow today. Numerous locations reported 16"-24" figures. Overnight and tomorrow, the storm responsible will slowly move away from the region. Additional periods of light snow are possible tomorrow with some minor accumulations. Somewhat milder air will return to the region by midweek. However, another shot of cold air is possible during the weekend. Moreover, EPS ensemble members are increasingly clustering around February 7-8 for another possible snow event. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +4.08 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.496. On January 31 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.160 (RMM). The January 30-adjusted amplitude was 2.360. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the first week of this month. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 16.4" snow.

Through 1 pm, NYC had 15.3” total snowfall and 1.02” precipitation (roughly a 15:1 ratio). LGA has averaged almost 16:1 through 5 pm.

Needles in Larchmont, NY.

A photo from just after 3 pm: Light and occasionally moderate snow continues to fall in Larchmont, NY.

Yes. That's Central Park.

Select Accumulations: Bridgeport: 10.2" Islip: 8.7" New York City-JFK: 8.7" New York City-LGA: 10.0" New York City-NYC: 13.3" Newark: 11.7"

Three photos from late this morning

A video clip from just before noon:

9:07 AM: Very light wind-driven snow in Larchmont, NY. Waiting patiently for what lies ahead.

Yes.

5.3” at Central Park.

Morning thoughts... A major perhaps borderline historic snowstorm (top 20 or above) is developing. Select snowfall amounts around the New York City area include: Islip: 2.9” New York City-JFK: 4.6” New York City-LGA: 4.1” New York City-NYC: 5.3” Newark: 5.2” Syosset (1 N): 5.4” This is just the beginning. In its most recent mesoscale discussion, the SPC observed: The latest mosaic radar imagery shows an east to west band of moderate to heavy precipitation forming from eastern Pennsylvania eastward to south of Long Island. The band is developing to the north of a deepening surface low, in response to an increase in isentropic ascent due to the approach of an upper-level low in the central Appalachians. In addition, increased low-level flow and strong divergence aloft will aid the continued development of moderate to heavy precipitation this morning. Snowfall rates are expected to increase into the 1 to 2 inch per hour range over the next few hours as the east-to-west band moves slowly northward across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, far southeast New York, Long Island and far southern New England. Snowfall rates are forecast to gradually increase through the morning approaching peak intensity in the early afternoon. The heaviest snow will likely fall from late morning until early this evening. Blizzard conditions are possible in some areas. Temperatures will top out in the lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 33° Newark: 33° Philadelphia: 34° Light snow and snow showers will likely continue tomorrow. Some additional accumulations are possible. This storm will very likely join the 10 one-foot or larger snowstorms that have blanketed New York City since 2000. Six of those storms dumped 18” or more snow. Those 10 storms were: December 30, 2000: 12.0” February 16-17, 2003: 19.8” December 5-7, 2003: 14.0” January 22-23, 2005: 13.8” February 11-12, 2006: 26.9” February 25-26, 2010: 20.9” December 26-27, 2010: 20.0” January 26-27, 2011: 19.0” February 13-14, 2014: 12.5” January 22-24, 2016: 27.5”

I favor the higher ones. The ECMWF has a good track record. The NAM and RGEM are within their best range. The GFSv16 has been very consistent and did well with the December storm. Sometimes the HRRR takes time to “catch on.” The GFS is a caution flag, but not enough to think the forecast is in trouble.

The parallel has double the snowfall through 18z for NYC.

No problem. Sorry, my iPhone pasted the map multiple times.

That’s from 7 am today through 7 am Wednesday, not including what has already fallen. Storm total

DCA: 0.2 NYC: 0.3 BOS: 0.8 ORD: -0.9 ATL: -0.5 IAH: 0.2 DEN: 0.0 PHX: 0.4 SEA: -1.0

The record low in January is 0.0”, which occurred in 1890.

This is likely the result of the transition of energy from the primary storm to the secondary one that will produce the excessive snows.

9:06 PM: The ground is dusted and the light snow is picking up in intensity.