donsutherland1

Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly cloudy and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower to middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 42° Newark: 41° Philadelphia: 45° A storm will impact the region late tonight through Friday. Cold air will return for the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 40.0°; 15-Year: 40.2° Newark: 30-Year: 40.6°; 15-Year: 40.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.8°; 15-Year: 41.9°

A significant snowfall will impact the Great Lakes region late tonight through Thursday. The precipitation from that system will spread eastward, with a moderate to significant snowfall likely across upstate New York and central and northern New England. Detroit will likely see its first 10" or above snowfall since February 15-16, 2021 when 10.4" accumulated. In the northern Mid-Atlantic region, tomorrow will see temperatures rise further. Much of the region will likely see the mercury rise into the lower and perhaps middle 40s. Afterward, the storm that will be producing the snowfall from the Great Lakes to northern New England will bring some rain or rain changing to freezing rain, sleet and snow Thursday into Friday. A cold weekend will follow. There remain hints on the long range guidance that the second half of February could experience a significant pattern change. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings. Much can still change given the timeframe involved. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +21.66 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.124. On January 30 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.533 (RMM). The January 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.565 (RMM).

That was a devastating ice storm in Montreal and southern Quebec.

All three cases with at least as much snowfall as last month occurred in February. 1. 36.6", February 2010 2. 35.7", February 1967 3. 33.2", February 2003

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny but cold. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 30s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 33° Newark: 33° Philadelphia: 38° Milder air will return tomorrow. A significant snowfall will blanket parts of the Great Lakes region, including Detroit. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.9°; 15-Year: 40.1° Newark: 30-Year: 40.5°; 15-Year: 40.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.7°; 15-Year: 41.8° 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 34.2° Average temperature: 34.9° Average error: 1.7° Newark: Average daily forecast: 35.5° Average temperature: 34.6° Average error: 1.7° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 37.1° Average temperature: 37.9° Average error: 2.3°

A cold January is concluding. The mean temperature at New York City's Central Park was 30.3°, which was 3.4° below normal. January 2022 was the coldest January since 2015 when the temperature averaged 29.9° and the coldest month since February 2015 (mean: 23.9°). In terms of snowfall, Atlantic City's 33.2" set a new January mark. The old record was 20.3" in 1987). It was also tied with February 2003 for the 4th snowiest month on record. 5 of the 10 snowiest months have occurred since 2000, including 3 of the 4 months with 30" or more snowfall. Records go back to 1945. Islip's 31.8" made 2022 the 2nd snowiest January on record and 3rd snowiest month of all-time. 5 of the 10 snowiest months have occurred since 2000, including all 5 months with 30" or more snowfall. Records go back to 1963. February will likely finish somewhat warmer than normal, but it won't likely join some of the recent years with 40° or above monthly mean temperatures. Generally colder than normal readings will continue through midweek. Afterward, it will turn briefly milder before another cold front pushes across the region. That front could bring some rain or rain changing to snow late in the week. On the north of the frontal boundary, the potential exists for an extended period of freezing rain and sleet. There are some hints on the long range guidance that the second half of February could experience a significant pattern change. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings. Much can still change given the timeframe involved. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +27.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.065. On January 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.536 (RMM). The January 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.614 (RMM).

The GFS is, for now, an outlier. A moderate to heavy snowfall will probably occur across Upstate NY and northern New England.

The problem with the TT maps is that all freezing precipitation is treated as snow. I-84 and north is probably where one starts seeing appreciable to significant snow on the 12z GFS.

DCA +1.5 NYC +1.2 BOS +1.0 ORD -1.1 ATL +1.8 IAH 0.0 DEN -0.8 PHX 0.1 SEA -1.6

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny but cold. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 20s and lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 30° Newark: 30° Philadelphia: 32° It will turn milder at midweek, but more cold air is likely to return for the weekend.

Generally colder than normal readings will continue through midweek. Afterward, it will turn briefly milder before another cold front pushes across the region. That front could bring some rain or rain changing to snow late in the week. There are some hints on the long range guidance that the second half of February could experience a significant pattern change. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings. Much can still change given the timeframe involved. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +24.03 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.713. On January 28 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.614 (RMM). The January 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.507 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.2° (3.5° below normal).

Thank you, Will.

Is that in Worcester?

Morning thoughts… In the wake of yesterday’s snowstorm, today will be fair but cold. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 20s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 24° Newark: 24° Philadelphia: 24° Tomorrow will be fair and somewhat warmer with temperatures returning to the 30s.

There are exceptions. This could have been one. But it was still a nice storm for NYC.

Long Island and New England don’t need it as much as NYC, PHL, or DCA.

I took the LIE, but only after taking 25B to Nassau County. The ramp to the LIE from the Clearview Expressway was closed due to stuck trucks.

The snow actually grew very heavy as I approached the Queens-Nassau County border.

It’s possible. It wouldn’t surprise me.

The snow grew heavier as I headed East. It was extremely heavy from Islip to Holbrook to Patchogue.

I had planned to see my sister and the visit coincided nicely with the storm.

The snow was noticeably heavier as I drove eastward across Queens.

Final amount was 8.3”.

Some photos from Patchogue, NY:

From Patchogue late this morning: