donsutherland1

A sad closing chapter to the flood:

The winter-spring Arctic sea ice extent maximum has also been falling, just not as fast as the summer minimum. During the 1990s, the average maximum extent was 15.203 million square kilometers. During the 2010s, the average maximum extent had fallen 6.3% to 14.277 million square kilometers. The 2021 maximum was 14.237 million square kilometers. There has been an average decline of 44,695 square kilometers per year since 1990. The coefficient of determination is 0.700.

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 81° Newark: 84° Philadelphia: 84° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 79.3°; 15-Year: 79.5° Newark: 30-Year: 80.7°; 15-Year: 81.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 81.9°; 15-Year: 82.0° A period of rain is likely late tomorrow into Thursday morning. General amounts will likely average 0.25”-0.75” with some locally higher amounts.

Tomorrow will be another fair and pleasant day. However, some rain is possible late Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures will remain below to near normal. Despite a cooler than normal first 7-10 days, September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region. The second half of the month could feature above to perhaps much above normal temperatures. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop. The SOI was -1.60 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.064 today. On September 4 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.714 (RMM). The September 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.700 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 82° Newark: 86° Philadelphia: 84° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 79.6°; 15-Year: 79.7° Newark: 30-Year: 81.0°; 15-Year: 81.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 82.2°; 15-Year: 82.2° Readings will remain generally below normal to near normal through much of the week.

Central Park finished with 38.6” of snow last winter.

Tranquil and mainly dry weather will continue through much of the week. Some light rain is possible late Wednesday into Thursday, but rainfall amounts don't appear to be significant. Temperatures will remain below to near normal. Despite a cooler than normal first 7-10 days, September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region. The second half of the month could feature above to perhaps much above normal temperatures. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop. The SOI was +14.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.183 today. On September 3 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.701 (RMM). The September 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.799 (RMM).

Thanks for this interesting update.

Up to 0.02” now.

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 77° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 79.9°; 15-Year: 80.0° Newark: 30-Year: 81.3°; 15-Year: 81.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 82.5°; 15-Year: 82.4° Readings will remain generally below normal through much of the week.

I am not sure. There has never been anything about the history of what had been a bench on a path that lay above the Bronx River. Moreover, there are numerous wooden benches just like that trunk portion in various parts of the Garden. I’m sorry that I don’t know more.

Tranquil and mainly dry weather will continue through much of next week. Some light rain is possible late Wednesday into Thursday, but the recent guidance has become even less impressed with the precipitation potential. Despite a cooler than normal first 7-10 days, September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region. The second half of the month could feature some much above normal temperatures. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop. The SOI was +17.83 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.343 today. On September 2 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.801 (RMM). The September 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.894 (RMM).

I did see about that oil leak. Companies should be required to pay the full costs of remediation and to continuously monitor all of their infrastructure as long as it exists. Their obligations don’t end simply when they abandon their infrastructure. Indeed, at the end of the pipeline’s useful life, the source should have been plugged and the pipe removed. All of this may well be expensive, but society should not wind up covering these costs. Society didn’t install the infrastructure.

Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden following major flooding along the Bronx River. The River is filled with mud. A large amount of sand was deposited along its banks. A large bench was ripped from its foundation along a path that is still closed to the public.

Due to the flood damage, the Mamaroneck School District has delayed the start of school until September 13.

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly sunny and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 82° Philadelphia: 79° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 80.1°; 15-Year: 80.2° Newark: 30-Year: 81.6°; 15-Year: 81.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 82.7°; 15-Year: 82.6° A slow warmup could commence next week.

An IMF working paper estimated that after-tax externalities from the fossil fuel industry come to more than $640 billion each year in the United States. Society bears the burden of those costs. Put another way, this industry is the tobacco-asbestos-opioids industries on steroids without any of the liability for its harm. This is the ultimate “free rider” problem and it severely distorts market function. If the industry paid even 20% of the costs of its externalities to fund mitigation, adaptation, and disaster recovery, the energy industry would look very different. These companies, being self- interested and seeking profits, would have led the way to cleaner energy, as business-as-usual would have become largely or wholly unprofitable.

Both outcomes are on the climate models. What was unexpected in the West was that the air holds less moisture despite the warming. The possibility exists that heat and drought are feeding back there in a self-reinforcing cycle to an extent that there’s less moisture available. The expansion of the Hadley cell has shifted storm tracks northward. That and the greater moisture content in the warmer air has produced an increase in annual precipitation and excessive rainfall events here. In NYC, all 8 years with 60” or more of rain have occurred after 1970. None occurred 1869-1970. A disproportionate share of very wet years throughout the Northeast has occurred in 2000 or later.

Abundant sunshine and cool temperatures will continue through the weekend. Warmer weather could return next week. Parts of the region might also have a shot at one or two light rainfall events next week. To date, Central Park has received 49.16" of rain, which would rank 2021 as the 39th wettest year on record if no additional rain fell. Records go back to 1869. Despite a cooler than normal first 7-10 days, September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop. The SOI was +9.99 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.744 today. On September 1 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.896 (RMM). The August 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.182 (RMM).

Amazing and unlucky. I hope the driver was ok.

Remains of a car that was swept up in the flash flood from Ida’s rains.

Revised to include 9/1:

It’s very bad in parts of Mamaroneck.

New York City’s 1.50” hourly precipitation cases (1889-present). Notice the disproportionate share of such events that have occurred 2000 or later. This is consistent with what one would expect from climate change, as a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture and extreme events are non-linear in nature relative to precipitation averages.

Some scenes from the aftermath of the flood in Mamaroneck. The air hangs thick with the smell of oil and gas. There are rancid odors of decaying material and rotting food in may parts of the flood-stricken area. If one looks at the last shot, one sees a chair caught high in the vegation with the muddy waters of the Sheldrake River down below in the right lower portion of the photo. The chair is approximately 15 feet above the river. The ice machine resting near a marked parking spot was swept nearly one-third of a mile to its resting place. Many people have had their lives altered by this event. Businesses ranging from Bilotta (kitchen and cabinet store) to a gym that had to dispose of its treadmills were adversely impacted. Bilotta suffered a total loss of inventory (as occurred during the April 2007 flood), but this flood encompassed a larger area with the waters rising much more rapidly. Outside of Mamaroneck in Harrison, there was an ongoing search for a missing vehicle that was reportedly swept into the adjacent reservoir during the height of the storm. Taking damage photos is among the worst aspects of storm photography. It is also part of the story. The human story behind the images is far more important than the actual images. That aspect should not be lost.