donsutherland1

In the past hour, NYC’s Central Park received 1.38” of rain. This is the 3rd hourly figure of 1.35” or more this year. That breaks the #record of 2 such days, which had been set in 2006.

During the past hour, Central Park picked up 0.52” of rain. That exceeds the 48-hour forecast total on the 18z GFS.

Hurricane Henri will likely move across eastern Long Island or just pass offshore before making landfall along the southern New England coast. That will likely bring pounding surf and periods of heavy rain to the region. Parts of Long Island and southern New England could experience hurricane-force wind gusts. Already, feeder bands are bringing heavy downpours, thunder and lightning to parts of the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was +11.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.095 today. On August 19 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.638 (RMM). The August 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.938 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.1° (1.1° above normal).

Another Saturday at the New York Botanical Garden. Despite mostly cloudy skies and a sprinkle, the temperature climbed into the lower 80s. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, it felt quite uncomfortable. Nevertheless, much is still in bloom.

A steamy high dewpoint morning with a real "Florida" feel to it.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly cloudy. A few places could see a shower or thundershower especially late in the day. Temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 84° Newark: 87° Philadelphia: 86° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 82.9°; 15-Year: 82.7° Newark: 30-Year: 84.2°; 15-Year: 84.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.4°; 15-Year: 85.1° Henri will impact the region tomorrow. Landfall on Long Island remains the most likely outcome before it heads into southern New England. It should be tugged northwestward for a time by an upper low to the west and a formative Greenland block. How far west it comes remains uncertain. The uncertainty is reflected by the lack of run-to-run continuity between the overnight guidance and earlier runs. The 0z and 6z GFS are far apart. Parts of Long Island and New England could experience hurricane-force wind gusts. In addition, August 22 daily rainfall records are likely in numbers locations. For reference, daily rainfall records for select locations are below: Bridgeport: 1.42”, 1994 Farmingdale: 0.89”, 2019 Hartford: 1.95”, 1937 Islip: 2.21”, 1977 New Haven: 2.25”, 2010 New York City-JFK: 2.00”, 1994 New York City-LGA: 2.34”, 1994 New York City-NYC: 1.85”, 1994 Newark: 1.70”, 1994 Poughkeepsie: 3.70”, 2010 Westhampton: 1.41”, 1952 White Plains: 3.04”, 2010

0z GEFS:

Same here in Westchester (2nd time today).

During the weekend, the track of Henri will have potential impacts on the weather, especially for Sunday into Monday. A period of blocking will be developing. However, the block will not rival that which steered Sandy to New Jersey landfall. Nevertheless, the guidance is now favoring a track farther to the west than had been the case 24 hours ago. At present, a track that takes Henri across Long Island and then into New England has become the most likely outcome. That will likely bring pounding surf and periods of heavy rain to the region. Parts of Long Island and southern New England could experience hurricane-force wind gusts. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was +13.72 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.490 today. On August 18 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.936 (RMM). The August 17-adjusted amplitude was 2.349 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9° (0.9° above normal).

Today was the calm before the possible storm. The sky was covered by some low- and mid-, and high-level clouds. The temperature rose into the lower 80s.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly cloudy. A few places could see a shower or thundershower. Temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 83° Newark: 87° Philadelphia: 84° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 83.0°; 15-Year: 82.8° Newark: 30-Year: 84.4°; 15-Year: 84.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.5°; 15-Year: 85.2° Henri could impact the region on Sunday into Monday. Model solutions are west of where they were yesterday and the formative block may leave latitude for an even further west track. Parts of Long Island and New England could experience hurricane-force wind gusts as things currently stand.

I doubt that the research station has electronic transmitters that can be attached to the bear. No one had likely expected its appearance.

I did. It’s remarkable.

Yes. That’s it. Another “first” in the era of climate change.

Wild track on the 0z NAM between 66-72 hours.

The remnants of Fred moved away from the region. Earlier today, Worcester picked up 3.05" rainfall in five hours. It also recorded back-to-back hours with 1.00" or more rain for just the 3rd time on record and its 8th highest hourly rainfall figure of 1.44". In the Middle Atlantic region, temperatures rose into the lower 90s in Baltimore, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Tomorrow will be partly sunny and very warm. Temperatures will likely climb into the middle and upper 80s across the region. During the weekend, the track of Henri will have potential impacts on the weather, especially for Sunday into Monday. At present, a track that takes Henri toward landfall in eastern New England or off the New England shore remains the most likely outcome. That should bring high surf, rip tides, showers and possibly some periods of rain to eastern parts of the Middle Atlantic region, especially the eastern half of Long Island. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was +8.92 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.704 today. On August 17 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.344 (RMM). The August 16-adjusted amplitude was 2.676 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.7° (0.7° above normal).

Worcester had its 8th biggest hourly rainfall and only 3rd case with two consecutive hours with 1” or more rainfall.

Morning thoughts… Rain will end. The sun could break through the clouds late in the day. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 84° Newark: 87° Philadelphia: 88° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 83.2°; 15-Year: 83.0° Newark: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 84.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.6°; 15-Year: 85.4° Henri could pass offshore and approach eastern New England or the waters off eastern New England late this weekend.

Poconos could see 2”-4”. NYC will likely see > 0.50”.

Yes, the minimum is typically reached in early to mid-September.

Today saw partly to mostly cloudy skies. The temperature rose into the lower and middle 80s. Philadelphia was the hot spot in recording its 30th 90° reading of the year with a high of 91°. Heavy rain associated with Fred will cause flooding in parts of central and upstate New York State overnight. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible in and around the New York City and Newark areas. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy. Showers and thundershowers remain possible. Temperatures will rise into the middle 80s across much of the region. Out West, Bismarck reached 100° for a record 15th day this year today. That broke the longstanding record of 14 days, which was set during 1936. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was -3.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.562 today. On August 16 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.680 (RMM). The August 15-adjusted amplitude was 2.526 (RMM). The preliminary amplitude set yet another August record for Phase 2. Prior to 2021, the record was 2.329, which was set on August 16, 2009. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.6° (0.6° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and humid today. Showers and thundershowers are possible. The heaviest rains will likely stay well west of New York City and Newark. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 81° Newark: 85° Philadelphia: 86° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 83.4°; 15-Year: 83.3° Newark: 30-Year: 84.7°; 15-Year: 85.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 85.7° Tomorrow and Friday will become warmer.

Tomorrow and Thursday will be mainly cloudy. Showers, thunderstorms, and periods of rain are likely. West of New York City in an area running across eastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, and into central New York State, 1"-3" of rain is likely with locally higher amounts. New York City, Newark, and nearby areas will likely pick up 0.50"-1.00" of rain. Much of the week will be a few degrees cooler with highs mainly topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Out West, Bismarck registered a high temperature of a near-record 104°. That was Bismarck's 14th 100° or above temperature this year. That tied the record for most 100° days, which was set in 1936. That mark could be eclipsed tomorrow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was -0.79 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.799 today. On August 15 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.523 (RMM). The August 14-adjusted amplitude was 2.231 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.4° (0.4° above normal). Finally, Arctic sea ice extent was 5.452 million square kilometers (JAXA) yesterday. That was the highest figure for August 16 since 2015. Nevertheless, Arctic sea ice extent will likely reach a minimum value near or just below 4.5 million square kilometers in September. The last minimum value at or above 5 million square kilometers occurred in 2009.

There's a lot of uncertainty--a real model battle is underway. The ECMWF, RGEM, and GGEM favor a lot of rainfall. The GFS and NAM don't. Right now, something between 0.50"-1.00" appears more likely than rainfall approaching 3" or the much drier GFS/NAM idea. It's tough to place the predecessor rainfall event even this close to the onset. I think we'll know a lot more by sometime between 12z and 0z.

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and a bit cooler today. Showers are possible. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 79° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 83° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 83.4°; 15-Year: 83.3° Newark: 30-Year: 84.7°; 15-Year: 85.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 85.7° Cooler conditions will persist through much of the week.