Jump to content

frd

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,271

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by frd

  1. frd
    We all laugh at Dr Cohen @CAPE , but I will say this, last year looked better at this point. We had record NA snow cover and a cold period in December. ( even though we experienced the same typical warmth period after Dec. 15 ) I think there is something to be made of a healthy cryosphere and extensive snow cover. So far the AO forecast have been getting uglier and uglier.
  2. frd
    Take this with a grain of salt. But, in a Nina and with the base state we have I can see this happening.
  3. frd
    It appears that the early seasonal forecast from the euro and even the UK met portraying a weakening of the vortex at the end of November and in early December is not going to pan out. The vortex remains firmly planted over the North Pole and doesn't even offer any displacement towards North America. It would appear that those calling for a front loaded winter may not get it. It would be ironic if the heart of Winter produces which is not typical of a la Nina.
  4. frd
    I have not seen the Control for the GFS or the Euro score a win in many years during the late Fall or Winter when it comes to predicting potential snowfall. Meanwhile, I would be concerned regarding a poor NAM state, and the lack of any posts from HM about the upcoming winter.
  5. frd
    Even later December not looking good for winter weather lovers. The PV is consolidated near the North Pole and there is no sign of a displaced or stretched out PV into North America. Meanwhile the AO looks to stay positive and there are no solid precurrsors to any significant strat warming. Things can change but at the moment very boring weather.
  6. frd
    Also of note, the potential of a favorable MJO passage later in December, however, the amplitude remains uncertain. Still, something to keep track of in the days ahead.
  7. frd
    Interesting despite the gloomy prospects of an early winter in the East.
  8. frd
  9. frd
    Pretty colors.
  10. frd
    I wish I were in Canada.
  11. frd
    AAM looks like it might fall off later in the month. However, the last image shows what a - GLAMM might look like with anomilies less than -0.5
  12. frd
    Seems the last few years the best patterns for us never coincides with our best climo. Last year when we thought we were going to get nailed by extreme cold and snow ( during the strong blocking episode ) the entire threat area shifted way SW leading to the crippling Texas snow/ice and severe cold outbreak. I believe the block shifted West and we were left with scraps.
  13. frd
    Low of 30 with frost.
  14. frd
    Signal is there for a big storm. I am sure New England will cash in.
  15. frd
    Significant changes in concensus moving forward with the AO. Most members take it negative. A great sign moving forward. Also, no sign at the moment that the SPV and the TPV are going to couple. Also of interest is the robust signal for a very negative NAO moving forward. Could be an active and cold weather period for the East later in the month and in early December.
  16. frd
    More support growing for a - NAO later this month. Extensive Atlantic wave breaking is forecasted leading up to this.
  17. frd
    This Friday night will be the coldest of the season so far. Snow showers for some before 8 or 9 AM. Friday morning.
  18. frd

    Winter 2021-22

    frd replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    This might help the back end of winter I believe since there is a delay from ocean to atmosphere. Do you know how long it actually takes to occur, if indeed it focuses more East by early to mid December?
  19. frd
    Interesting potential on a - NAO signal out in time. If it happens then the question is, does it retrograde further WSW in a ideal Davis Straight block.
  20. frd
    If your kitchen is hot on Thanksgiving Day you might get relief this year by opening the windows verus needing the AC on.
  21. frd
    Snow showers in the forecast here for this coming Friday, I had to look twice, thought I was in the wrong zone. Friday A chance of snow showers. Sunny, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
  22. frd

    Winter 2021-22

    frd replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Any coupling ?
  23. frd
    Pretty cool loop.
  24. frd
    That event produced here and was actually under-forecasted. Given it was mid-November it made the event more remarkable. I still remember the long traffic delays.
  25. frd
    WPO is going to tank and hopefully stay that way into December.
×
×
  • Create New...