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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Yeah, if you have appropriate expectations I think euro looks good. Norrisville jackpot @mappy!!
  2. WxUSAF
    Baseline forecast at this point probably is like 1-4” for the metro areas. I think it’s good news that most of the IVT precip falls after dark Sunday evening into early Monday, which obviously helps with accumulation. Precise location of the jackpot might be tougher to nail down until like Saturday.
  3. WxUSAF
    It occludes and stacks in place. You can get snow all the way to the low location when that happens. It’s rare obviously. But what isn’t rare about a 3’ snow bomb?
  4. WxUSAF
    Assuming this goes to IVT only, it’s possible someone can pull 6”ish out of this. But a small area. GGEM has a bullseye of that magnitude and looks like Ukie also.
  5. WxUSAF
    Yeah that 0z Monday sounding would be like near whiteout with high ratio parachutes. Crazy stuff.
  6. WxUSAF
    @paulythegun posted it but the gfs soundings are insane.
  7. WxUSAF
    You must be rolling and breathless on the floor
  8. WxUSAF
    RGEM is juicy. 1”+ stripe centered on I66/Rt50 corridor.
  9. WxUSAF
    FWIW (nothing), I think the NAM would have given us snow from the IVT after 84 hours.
  10. WxUSAF
    By the stats it’s better than the icon, but worse than the GGEM and its AI version.
  11. WxUSAF
    March is easy #1 worst weather month of the year outside of 1993 and 2017 and 2014
  12. WxUSAF
    “Fun” that we jumped into crappy March weather 2 weeks early
  13. WxUSAF
    Top analogs for next winter going to be 02-03, 09-10, 82-83, and something from the 1890s.
  14. WxUSAF
    Apparently there was some storm recon plane data fed into the 18z cycle. More coming for 0z.
  15. WxUSAF
    Good happy hour. I’m not going to kick a 2-4” event out of bed if that’s what it ends up being.
  16. WxUSAF
    Yup. Honestly I’d probably want to be between Baltimore and like Trenton NJ if I was betting…
  17. WxUSAF
    One plus of this IVT scenario is that it’s mostly after dark Sunday evening so no solar radiation concerns and slightly better temps. Otherwise, a lot less pluses lol
  18. WxUSAF
    22.8” mean and 17” median in my 17 years in Columbia. Last 10 years have mean of 13.5” and median of 14.5”. All assuming no additional snow this year.
  19. WxUSAF
    Driving different way to work on route 1 in beltsville and there are still giant snow piles in the traffic lanes! Wtf!?
  20. WxUSAF
    There’s your IVT Yup, they tend to move north and east with shorter leads.
  21. WxUSAF
    Seems the most common theme on guidance for Sunday is an inverted trough somewhere through the region as a focus for precip (snow or rain). Those are notoriously tricky to locate well in advance but can give some lucky people a nice event if the stars align. Even the AI models have this IVT to some degree.
  22. WxUSAF
    End of a long thread
  23. WxUSAF
    What are we looking for on the weeklies in late Feb?
  24. WxUSAF
    Daytime Miller B in late Feb with a trash heap antecedent airmass? ALL IN
  25. WxUSAF
    Did people think we’d escape a Nina winter without a Delmarva jackpot?
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