My son’s due date was 2/8/2010. Ended up being born on 2/14/2010. The told us to get to the main road and they’d send a humvee. That would have been a ~120 yard walk through hip deep snow with my wife in labor if he had come during either storm.
The 0z (and seems like 6z) euro evolution is what I was honking at last night with the 18z run. Long duration events are super rare for a reason, but I’m getting major PD2 type vibes with overrunning and then a coastal. This thing keeps slowing down though so we’re only gaining like 45 minutes on the start time for every hour that passes lol.
The more I look at the 18z euro, the more I REALLY like it. That beast was just getting started. Look at H5 at the end. Long duration high ratio bomb.
Anyway, on to 0z.
Cool graphic of the 12z Euro AI ensembles from Tomer. Basically, our region (focused over @Bob Chill, but covering most of us) has lower dispersion on snow totals relative to central PA up to NYC and BOS and the deep south.
I don’t have @psuhoffman’s photographic memory for random 6z runs of failed storms, but my memory for late February last year was we had this amazing signal but guidance was never keying in on the same storm or shortwave? It was more of a several day period that looked good (and failed). So this looks quite different with a clear shortwave and storm development scenario.
Debbie Downer wants to remind everyone that there are reasons we have had like 1 KU in a La Nina in the history of the Mid-Atlantic region since the last glacial maximum
Yeah, suppression is by far the most likely fail scenario, especially if you sort of lump that in with "basically no storm because the shortwave doesn't really eject".