Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. Weird to say this, but the GEFS advertised pattern in early December is actually pretty darn good. Verbatim not much cold air, but if that 500mb pattern occurred, it would end up colder I’d wager.
  2. Extrapolated 12z gfs lookin’ tasty!
  3. We’ve got “extreme weather bullseye” working in our favor
  4. JB2 forecast FWIW https://www.justinweather.com/2020/11/19/winter-outlook-2021-i-am-more-bullish-on-snow-for-part-of-it/
  5. BWI: 10.3” IAD: 12.7” DCA: 6.5” RIC: 9.8” SBY: 8.5”
  6. This doesn’t look horrible. Usually CPC is just an ENSO copy-paste.
  7. This strong phase 2 wave helps that short cool-ish period near the start of December. If it goes into the COD after phase 2 without propagating into phase 3-4, that would help keep things less torchy.
  8. My cat observed the process from within 6 feet
  9. You can wire me $7M by Friday at 5pm for a hand recount. And no, you can’t just have a recount for DCA.
  10. Congrats to @MN Transplant! He won with a total departure of 19 days. I hadn't noticed when I looked a few days ago, but @snowfan was actually really close, coming in 2nd place with a departure of 20 days. @GATECH was 3rd with 24 days. For 4 locations and 38 participants, only @GATECH got one (DCA) exactly right. 2020 First Freeze Contest.xlsx
  11. Wow, nice! I saw PWSs around DCA were 30-32F by 10pm last night so I wondered if it would be able to get there.
  12. Low of 26. Frosty out. Kudos to the GGEM on this morning. It was consistently much colder then the US or Euro guidance and that verified.
  13. About time we get one of those for a change. 30F here. How low will it go?
  14. BWI hit freezing at the top of the hour
  15. Down to the low temp from this morning
  16. 5 nearest PWSs on wunderground: 28, 31, 32, 35, 35
  17. Running 5F colder here than this time yesterday
  18. End of month/early December cold shot is back on the models today. Gfs is most impressive while the other guidance is more tepid, but still shows something.
  19. My neighbor videoed the flurries last night and posted it on FB so it counts! Two traces of snow already! Big winter inbound!