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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    The torch period in the 20-31 December period is pretty wildly consistent for like 15 years+. Even the few times we've had a chilly Xmas, we've had a really warm day or two the following or preceding week. But yes, I'll take any snow I can get. But some perfect track frontal wave on December 3 is more likely 2" of slop for me, 8" for PSU, and rain for DC whereas 2 weeks later it could be all snow for nearly everyone except DCA.
  2. Nice. I was going to guesstimate about 1.5” based on nearby PWSs. Right around NBM consensus.
  3. CFS isn’t even worth the electrons for single runs
  4. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    Not that it counts for anything, but I’ll again reiterate my preference that we delay any droolworthy pattern until Dec 15 or later. Climo improves so much through the first few weeks of winter. Shoveling feet of pattern for Thanksgiving just helps keep the leftovers chilled on the front porch.
  5. Thought I’d wake up to finally seeing a complete precip shield but nope! 0.8-0.9” so far.
  6. Probably emphasis on the "dead"
  7. Light frost in Ellicott City just north of 70
  8. First time playing Mahomes?
  9. 18z euro AI snow us early Nov
  10. Official records for Baltimore go back to the 1870s I think? So we have about 150 years of data. And of the coldest 54 winters, only 3 come from the last 25 years.
  11. Now do literally all the other winter months in the 21st century
  12. Right next to Lake Elkhorn
  13. Hmmm I thought it was a low flying plane or big truck nearby. But I felt that.
  14. lol what are these Stiller uniforms?? lol sooooo bad
  15. Snoop played great. So fun to watch Keaton Mitchell play. Even if apparently the bears had to know exactly what was coming if he's on the field
  16. I guess it’s good to hold them to 6 points when they had the ball for about 14 mins in the first quarter?
  17. IAD is actually like Oct 20? BWI around Nov 1 and DCA in mid January.
  18. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    We always get excited for great patterns in late November and early December and usually it leads to some days with highs in the mid 40s and a rainy storm or two. Much rather get cooking after December 15 or 20.
  19. Down on the southern eastern shore camping and enjoying the incredible dark sky. Can see Comet Lemmon and the Milky Way! Hope the frost stays back home lol.
  20. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    Interesting comparison of positive/negative AMO winters with this ENSO state. For sensible outcomes, the -AMO list is snowier for us I think than the +AMO outside the 95-96 fluke.
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