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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    GFS kills the Apps running low around Roanoke. Hands it off to the coastal and that keeps precip going. It’s the only model I’ve seen with that.
  2. WxUSAF
    Might weenie myself for this, but seems like other 18z runs are at least taking a partial step toward the GFS with separating the 2 parts more? But yeah, hard to trust GFS thermal and the strong second part isn’t showing up in other guidance really.
  3. WxUSAF
    And we (probably) got it way better than the NC weenies… Too much info is 100% a problem with this hobby. With the way models roll out now, there’s almost always a new model run to look at. Round the clock. Like a social media algorithm designed to keep you clicking. Most effective method for me is to put my phone in a different room and leave it there. Plan to do it again at 7pm tonight.
  4. WxUSAF
    That is a deep and cold surface layer. I dunno. I remember seeing some of the profiles from the 1994 super cold ZR events and the near surface inversion was bonkers. Upper 10s to like 40-50 a stones throw up above.
  5. WxUSAF
    Wish I had the willpower to do that! And this site sometimes… Certainly feels like one bad run always starts a trend.
  6. WxUSAF
    Look at the bottom right of the chart. What am I missing?
  7. WxUSAF
    Yeah I feel all that. This is a pretty shitty hobby and we’re in a historic snow drought. My son asked me something similar last weekend “why does it always get worse for snow?” Lol. Don’t have much useful advice except take a step back for your own mental health. 18z euro yesterday sorta triggered me for some reason and I just put my phone away at 7pm for the rest of the night. I wish I had the strength to just ignore everything until snow starts falling Saturday evening lol.
  8. WxUSAF
    He speaks the beast into existence
  9. WxUSAF
    If snow is the target, 18z RGEM is a step above 12z. Big step for far southern zones.
  10. WxUSAF
    Says sleet as precip type?
  11. WxUSAF
    BAM posted RRFS but I guess using the model’s internally calculated SLR? Actually adds a little snow above this plot, especially for southern 3/4s of the region by my eye.
  12. WxUSAF
    Nina MECS for us are really rare for a reason. Northern stream just so rarely plays nice. This is still going to be a good or great storm though! Still probably top tier for a Nina.
  13. WxUSAF
    Mrs WxUSAF confirms it’s crazy out there with people getting groceries and gas. THEY will be wrong again because THEY said we’re getting 2 feet!
  14. WxUSAF
    Updated LWX discussion tl;dr all systems go. Forecast stabilizing, bigly snow, some crust, watching bigly ice for southern zones. Freaking cold
  15. WxUSAF
    We’re good at finding the worst of both worlds lol. Our historic specialty. No reason to still not just blend euro/eps/euroAI and call it a day. Wake me up for the Saturday 12z 3k NAM.
  16. WxUSAF
    I’m done with model plots lol. Ready to watch snow fall.
  17. WxUSAF
    Throw in the frigid Tuesday morning temps and I’ll be shocked if school systems open. Would take a major forecast bust
  18. WxUSAF
    Yes, 3:1 ratio is assumed for sleet Yeah, going to be banding and ratio variations that change things.
  19. WxUSAF
    If you’re going off just this 12z suite, maybe a bit? If you’re including some 6z and 0z in your super ensemble, maybe not? Think that’s about spot on what 6z euro had except for maybe southernmost zones? And yeah, 1” of sleet seems quite possible on top of snow.
  20. WxUSAF
    LWX just updated event total snow. 10” DC, 11” Baltimore, 11” CHO, 9” EZF, 14” FDK and HGR.
  21. WxUSAF
    That’s almost exactly what I’ve had in my mind. I told family and neighbors (HoCo and HarCo) 8-14” plus sleet this morning. I guess I’d knock 1-2” off that based on 12z, but no reason to adjust for every model run at this point . Let’s see where we are after tomorrows 12z.
  22. WxUSAF
    Tomer Burg posted elsewhere that it apparently is a know euro problem with ZR vs sleet. I think very little ZR for the metro areas. Maybe FZDZ at the very end.
  23. WxUSAF
    Yeah I think we’re trading a slightly cooler column for a less intense WAA thump with most 12z runs? Think @SnowenOutThereMentioned this? All minor changes relatively.
  24. WxUSAF
    Seems drier overall?
  25. WxUSAF
    Interpolating @stormtrackermaps, maybe snow until 21-22z Sunday? I’d take that for sure.
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