WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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It’s got to dig and explode on top of us basically.
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Having snow with a storm that’s basically over the Chesapeake is a rare thing. It’s mostly because it’s capturing the surface low and deepening right on top of us.
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SE ridge has been over modeled for 5 months. It’ll change eventually, but I’d bet on persistence until then.
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Don’t want to Deb and I haven’t been able to look at closely at any 12z guidance, but I still think a good ULL passage is a simpler and cleaner way to a 1-3” maybe 2-4” type event. Multiple phasing shortwaves in a Nina with a kicker in the mix and no upstream blocking to slow things down seems like a recipe for last minute heartbreak. Throw in a mid precursor airmass. You know I’m rooting for the unicorn, but I’ll take a simple layup.
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Riding the Icon and GFS? What can go wrong. GFS shows the Mt PSU jackpot though which seems like the most realistic part.
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I mean, 6z isn’t too far off that idea actually
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Gut instinct is that our best reasonable hope for Thursday/Friday is some widespread light snow with the upper level shortwave passage. This is pretty much the euro-ai solution.
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@winter_warlock find the banter thread dude
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If people cared like with snow, people would be panicking at the 18z hrrr’s precip totals for the weekend
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MLK storm in January 2022 was sorta like that. Was low teens the morning it started, got a couple inches of snow, mixed, turned to heavy rain. No thunder that I recall.
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Yeah going to be volatile tracking for sure. Jan-Feb 2014 had most events pop up in short to medium range. @Bob Chillmentions this. But the more shots on goal we get, and at peak climo as @psuhoffman said, the better chance we get.
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Apologies if it was already mentioned but GFSAI has a couple rounds of winter weather it looks like. Different solutions to all the possible events vs Ops though.
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3” in a week is solid when there’s not a single event to key on
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And keep ticking that all west. “Classic” east coast storms have the H5 trough go neutrally tilted near the MS river and negative around the time it hits the Apps. We’ve definitely moved in the right direction in that regard, but the reason OTS solutions still occur (aside from phasing challenges) is the trough is too positively tilted.
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@mitchnick’s EPS is definitely a small step back at 18z. Only slight positive improvement is the northern stream in Canada is farther ahead than 12z. But our trough is obviously flatter.
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That could be more of a timing difference. Hard to say.
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Definitely a west shift on GEFS vs 12z. More like 6z, but a sharper trough.
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There was a story recently of the first confirmed bobcat in Harford county MD in like 100+ years. So they may be expanding their ranges.
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We need more wolves and mountain lions
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Most Canada geese in our area are non-migratory
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Poor ball spacing
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And presumably that’s all basically from the 15-17th?
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Kicker is very strong and south
