WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Yup. Honestly I’d probably want to be between Baltimore and like Trenton NJ if I was betting…
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One plus of this IVT scenario is that it’s mostly after dark Sunday evening so no solar radiation concerns and slightly better temps. Otherwise, a lot less pluses lol
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22.8” mean and 17” median in my 17 years in Columbia. Last 10 years have mean of 13.5” and median of 14.5”. All assuming no additional snow this year. -
Driving different way to work on route 1 in beltsville and there are still giant snow piles in the traffic lanes! Wtf!?
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There’s your IVT Yup, they tend to move north and east with shorter leads.
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Seems the most common theme on guidance for Sunday is an inverted trough somewhere through the region as a focus for precip (snow or rain). Those are notoriously tricky to locate well in advance but can give some lucky people a nice event if the stars align. Even the AI models have this IVT to some degree.
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End of a long thread
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What are we looking for on the weeklies in late Feb?
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Daytime Miller B in late Feb with a trash heap antecedent airmass? ALL IN
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Did people think we’d escape a Nina winter without a Delmarva jackpot?
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Did a much too early check of GFS soundings and it’s only a very shallow area of above freezing temps. Like 975-980mb and below. Still don’t really want 34-35F at 2pm in late February though…
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It’s that time of year where you usually want to bet on the wedge winning in your temp and cloud forecasts…
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Nothing eats snowpack quite like fog
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This is definitely a legit threat. Timing during the week is similar to Jan 25 (Sunday start time plus or minus 12-18 hours). But I’ll note that for Jan 25, we also had pretty good consensus broadly for a storm on Tuesday. Wednesday 0z I think was when things jumped north and started showing the sleet mix. But they were pretty locked in after that point outside of some windshield wiper action on details.
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The things I would do…
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BWI snow depth is annoyingly missing for yesterday. Columbia area generally is still snowcovered on balance. Open sports fields, etc., mostly still have 1-2".
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of course
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Not quite 0.5" based on CoCoRaHS. A modest overperformance.
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Hoping to break 0.1” in another hour or two!!
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12z euro ai looks like a decent hit next Sunday-Monday
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(Probably strong) Nino cometh. Drought is on its last legs
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Desperately need a free car wash
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Hail Mary
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BWI kept it going today! Last day maybe?
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This always goes the exact same way. Not the first rodeo
