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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Guess I’ll stick with 2-6” for MBY lol
  2. WxUSAF
    Gfs is about identical for Delmarva and points NE. Naso identical for the rest of us lol
  3. WxUSAF
    Ha, I’m close enough to that I’m still kinda wary of getting caught between the best IVT death band and the coastal CCB. But it’s gonna snow and I’m excited for that .
  4. WxUSAF
    I think that’s solid. But probably the floor? You may be slowly accumulating during the afternoon and early evening while the rest of us stare at 37F white rain or regular rain…
  5. WxUSAF
    Then throw elevation effects into it…
  6. WxUSAF
    Tough tough forecast. Boom/bust potential is so much higher than normal. The January storm seemed really locked in by the end in comparison. Someone’s going to Jack with the IVT and maybe pull in double digits a short drive away from places with like 2-3”. Still like my 2-6” range but maybe worth inching that up for HoCo/Carroll and points east?
  7. WxUSAF
    I think there’s going to be quite a range of ratios. If you’re in the coastal CCB or the core of the IVT, 10-12:1 probably? Maybe better? Outside of that more like 8:1? But maybe as low as 5:1 in warm spots with poor rates?
  8. WxUSAF
    Thinks that fair. Will NW trends stop now or continue is the big question. What’s nice for the metros right now is that the euro has the best IVT right through the area and the gfs gets us coastal love. So I feel we’re in a pretty good spot. Wish it was 3-5F colder…
  9. WxUSAF
    100% of 4”+ at DCA on it. Caveat 10:1 ratios. But that should still mean a solid 2-4”+ for DC.
  10. WxUSAF
    FWIW, apparently new run of the Graf gets us pretty good. Not gfs good, but good. It was a far east outlier before apparently.
  11. WxUSAF
    Maybe the gfs is the US women’s figure skating of weather models? Been down for 24 years but now going to win??!?!
  12. WxUSAF
    ^yyyuuppp 2-6” for the metro corridor
  13. WxUSAF
    I’ll take my chances with that
  14. WxUSAF
    It really loves this narrow death band. Better for the coast and areas to our northeast.
  15. WxUSAF
    I like rgem at 36hrs. Better surface and H5.
  16. WxUSAF
    3k has been too dry lately and we know 12k has a wet bias
  17. WxUSAF
    51/49 excited for my snowstorm
  18. WxUSAF
    That looks pretty reasonable to me although maybe questionable for Mt Holly’s area
  19. WxUSAF
    Yes, not integrated vapor transport
  20. WxUSAF
    I’m up for a new thread. @Maestrobjwa?
  21. WxUSAF
    We don’t speak of March 2013 in Maryland
  22. WxUSAF
    Yeah but it’s still improved over 0z. Other guidance is all very good for the beaches.
  23. WxUSAF
    I think something like 2-6” is a reasonable call for the metro area right now. More for the beaches. Potentially a screw zone somewhere in between?
  24. WxUSAF
    Jan 2011 storm had that pounding ULL snow after dark with similar surface temps. Think it was like 7-8:1 ratios?
  25. WxUSAF
    @psuhoffman and RehobOth jackpots. I’d shave like 25-50% off 10:1 depending on location. Still an improved run.
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