Jump to content

WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    28,205

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Don’t think anyone talked about 6z rgem but it shows this well. Starts as snow for a lot of people and then mixing back and forth all day and then a solid IVT thump after dark. It’s 10:1 totals are 6-8” for some, but even in the coldest spots you’d never have that on the ground all at once.
  2. WxUSAF
    I could see a scenario where colder spots like you get a little accumulation early Sunday, then it melts away, and then more with the IVT.
  3. WxUSAF
    In my casual looking, euro and other guidance clearly made a big step toward gfs at 18z yesterday and then 0z and 6z have been a cumulative tiny step back from it. But we need like 2 more steps to get to the gfs. And I think gfs is inching toward the other guidance. We’re in a better spot than yesterday for sure, but gfs is still on a major island.
  4. WxUSAF
    The IVT snow is after dark so that makes a difference. But I could still see urban areas, especially if they’re on the fringe of the heaviest snow, struggle with accumulation. Core of the IVT, especially away from the UHI probably will have 10-12:1 ratios. Edge of the IVT in urban areas could be like 5:1…
  5. WxUSAF
    Think that’s a pretty good call for right now
  6. WxUSAF
    Seems like the heavy rain band is like 100mi north of where it was progged? Was supposed to be right through DC and it’s in southern PA?
  7. WxUSAF
    Thread would be/will be a disaster with posts lamenting about white rain and warm temps Sunday afternoon.
  8. WxUSAF
  9. WxUSAF
    #HoCoBullseye
  10. WxUSAF
    Hot damn
  11. WxUSAF
    Way too much gfs in that blend clearly
  12. WxUSAF
    Yeah, if you have appropriate expectations I think euro looks good. Norrisville jackpot @mappy!!
  13. WxUSAF
    Baseline forecast at this point probably is like 1-4” for the metro areas. I think it’s good news that most of the IVT precip falls after dark Sunday evening into early Monday, which obviously helps with accumulation. Precise location of the jackpot might be tougher to nail down until like Saturday.
  14. WxUSAF
    It occludes and stacks in place. You can get snow all the way to the low location when that happens. It’s rare obviously. But what isn’t rare about a 3’ snow bomb?
  15. WxUSAF
    Assuming this goes to IVT only, it’s possible someone can pull 6”ish out of this. But a small area. GGEM has a bullseye of that magnitude and looks like Ukie also.
  16. WxUSAF
    Yeah that 0z Monday sounding would be like near whiteout with high ratio parachutes. Crazy stuff.
  17. WxUSAF
    @paulythegun posted it but the gfs soundings are insane.
  18. WxUSAF
    You must be rolling and breathless on the floor
  19. WxUSAF
    RGEM is juicy. 1”+ stripe centered on I66/Rt50 corridor.
  20. WxUSAF
    FWIW (nothing), I think the NAM would have given us snow from the IVT after 84 hours.
  21. WxUSAF
    By the stats it’s better than the icon, but worse than the GGEM and its AI version.
  22. WxUSAF
    March is easy #1 worst weather month of the year outside of 1993 and 2017 and 2014
  23. WxUSAF
    “Fun” that we jumped into crappy March weather 2 weeks early
  24. WxUSAF
    Top analogs for next winter going to be 02-03, 09-10, 82-83, and something from the 1890s.
  25. WxUSAF
    Apparently there was some storm recon plane data fed into the 18z cycle. More coming for 0z.
×
×
  • Create New...