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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    I think there’s going to be quite a range of ratios. If you’re in the coastal CCB or the core of the IVT, 10-12:1 probably? Maybe better? Outside of that more like 8:1? But maybe as low as 5:1 in warm spots with poor rates?
  2. WxUSAF
    Thinks that fair. Will NW trends stop now or continue is the big question. What’s nice for the metros right now is that the euro has the best IVT right through the area and the gfs gets us coastal love. So I feel we’re in a pretty good spot. Wish it was 3-5F colder…
  3. WxUSAF
    100% of 4”+ at DCA on it. Caveat 10:1 ratios. But that should still mean a solid 2-4”+ for DC.
  4. WxUSAF
    FWIW, apparently new run of the Graf gets us pretty good. Not gfs good, but good. It was a far east outlier before apparently.
  5. WxUSAF
    Maybe the gfs is the US women’s figure skating of weather models? Been down for 24 years but now going to win??!?!
  6. WxUSAF
    ^yyyuuppp 2-6” for the metro corridor
  7. WxUSAF
    I’ll take my chances with that
  8. WxUSAF
    It really loves this narrow death band. Better for the coast and areas to our northeast.
  9. WxUSAF
    I like rgem at 36hrs. Better surface and H5.
  10. WxUSAF
    3k has been too dry lately and we know 12k has a wet bias
  11. WxUSAF
    51/49 excited for my snowstorm
  12. WxUSAF
    That looks pretty reasonable to me although maybe questionable for Mt Holly’s area
  13. WxUSAF
    Yes, not integrated vapor transport
  14. WxUSAF
    I’m up for a new thread. @Maestrobjwa?
  15. WxUSAF
    We don’t speak of March 2013 in Maryland
  16. WxUSAF
    Yeah but it’s still improved over 0z. Other guidance is all very good for the beaches.
  17. WxUSAF
    I think something like 2-6” is a reasonable call for the metro area right now. More for the beaches. Potentially a screw zone somewhere in between?
  18. WxUSAF
    Jan 2011 storm had that pounding ULL snow after dark with similar surface temps. Think it was like 7-8:1 ratios?
  19. WxUSAF
    @psuhoffman and RehobOth jackpots. I’d shave like 25-50% off 10:1 depending on location. Still an improved run.
  20. WxUSAF
    Yeah AI is stronger and a bit west with the coastal. Surface temps are what they are…I’d rely on Op euro and 3k NAM most for those
  21. WxUSAF
    I think you’ll do very well, but I think highest totals are north of our sub
  22. WxUSAF
    Coastal NJ, LI, up to eastern Mass gonna get wrecked
  23. WxUSAF
    Think this is the first time I’ve looked at the Ukie for this. And yes it made a big step to the GFS and yes it still looks like trash for anyone not standing on the beach lol
  24. WxUSAF
    So far there’s seems to be a bit of meeting in the middle with the 12z suite. But other guidance is taking more steps toward the Op GFS than the other way around. My guess still is the metro area will, in the end, be too far west for the coastal CCB snows. But this might be our La Niña Rehobeth blizzard…
  25. WxUSAF
    AI GFS is jumping into the Op GFS camp
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