Jump to content

WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    27,587

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Can everyone now please follow @NorthArlington101’s example and continue this fascinating discussion in banter?
  2. WxUSAF
    GFSAI has some digital blue in fantasy range. Everyone get a little hit to tide you over. First hit is free, then you gotta pay.
  3. WxUSAF
    First GFS fantasy storm in how many days?? And lookee lookee GEFS looks like euro ai ensembles now.
  4. WxUSAF
    Couple close calls on euro AI D9+
  5. WxUSAF
  6. WxUSAF
    EPS got colder overnight as well. GFS digging troughs to Mexico City is gone. Just need some fantasy range storms to start popping again.
  7. WxUSAF
    Maybe a blip, but 6z GEFS is a big change in a more positive direction for us. Much deeper -NAO/-AO and it keeps a trough in the east until the very end of the run, when it’s still a very workable gradient pattern.
  8. WxUSAF
    Ok enough Hoffman chatter.
  9. WxUSAF
    Nice! Birdwatching is my big hobby. Was debating driving to Great Falls VA today. Very rare bird there the last 2 days. Red-flanked Bluetail.
  10. WxUSAF
    His second most recent post is literally “I’m very optimistic for January”
  11. WxUSAF
    Reduction in soundings should impact all forecasts, but perhaps not equally given different data assimilation methods. Not sure how you’d “normalize” it so to speak, but I think comparing forecast accuracy between winter 24-25 and 25-26 would be a very interesting study.
  12. WxUSAF
    Uhhh…82-83 had a KU? 14-15 was a very good winter. 97-98 was a blowtorch super Nino. 06-07 and 18-19 were fair to good depending on location.
  13. WxUSAF
    One thing I’ve noted the last couple days is that the end of the op runs haven’t been looking like the ensemble means. This is @mitchnick’s anecdotal rule. Today there’s better similarity with non-GFS runs having a more or less favorable winter pattern for us D10-15.
  14. WxUSAF
    GEPS always looks dubiously cold at the surface. I think it’s a model bias.
  15. WxUSAF
    EPS-AI remains by far the best looking in the D10-15 range for pattern. EPS is good, but not as good. GEFS and GEPS have turned the good pattern into a cold front passage and then dump the trough right back out west and pump the SE ridge. They all have the EPO ridge develop but the precise ridge axis and the strength of any NAO ridging is really important to our sensible outcome
  16. WxUSAF
    1/1: 0.1" 3.5" season total
  17. WxUSAF
    Woke us up too. Then tried to go back to sleep and the wind hit like a freight train 40 mins later. Visibility was probably 1/10th of a mile or less. Could watch the driveway accumulate snow. It’s blown around so much since, but probably can count 0.1”.
  18. WxUSAF
    Best run yet easily
  19. WxUSAF
    Ha, our friends also made shrimp 3 ways.
  20. WxUSAF
  21. WxUSAF
    Don’t know what the rest of winter holds, but this was a very solid December by our standards. Below to much below normal temps and normal to above normal snow for about everyone (sorry Winchester and Stephen’s City).
  22. WxUSAF
    Nada IMBY
  23. WxUSAF
    Love it. Gonna kuchie my way to a 4” seasonal total.
  24. WxUSAF
    I get what you’re feeling @mitchnick, but more often than not since early August the trend has been the other way.
  25. WxUSAF
    I didn’t say it was a lot of digital blue
×
×
  • Create New...