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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    If snow is the target, 18z RGEM is a step above 12z. Big step for far southern zones.
  2. WxUSAF
    Says sleet as precip type?
  3. WxUSAF
    BAM posted RRFS but I guess using the model’s internally calculated SLR? Actually adds a little snow above this plot, especially for southern 3/4s of the region by my eye.
  4. WxUSAF
    Nina MECS for us are really rare for a reason. Northern stream just so rarely plays nice. This is still going to be a good or great storm though! Still probably top tier for a Nina.
  5. WxUSAF
    Mrs WxUSAF confirms it’s crazy out there with people getting groceries and gas. THEY will be wrong again because THEY said we’re getting 2 feet!
  6. WxUSAF
    Updated LWX discussion tl;dr all systems go. Forecast stabilizing, bigly snow, some crust, watching bigly ice for southern zones. Freaking cold
  7. WxUSAF
    We’re good at finding the worst of both worlds lol. Our historic specialty. No reason to still not just blend euro/eps/euroAI and call it a day. Wake me up for the Saturday 12z 3k NAM.
  8. WxUSAF
    I’m done with model plots lol. Ready to watch snow fall.
  9. WxUSAF
    Throw in the frigid Tuesday morning temps and I’ll be shocked if school systems open. Would take a major forecast bust
  10. WxUSAF
    Yes, 3:1 ratio is assumed for sleet Yeah, going to be banding and ratio variations that change things.
  11. WxUSAF
    If you’re going off just this 12z suite, maybe a bit? If you’re including some 6z and 0z in your super ensemble, maybe not? Think that’s about spot on what 6z euro had except for maybe southernmost zones? And yeah, 1” of sleet seems quite possible on top of snow.
  12. WxUSAF
    LWX just updated event total snow. 10” DC, 11” Baltimore, 11” CHO, 9” EZF, 14” FDK and HGR.
  13. WxUSAF
    That’s almost exactly what I’ve had in my mind. I told family and neighbors (HoCo and HarCo) 8-14” plus sleet this morning. I guess I’d knock 1-2” off that based on 12z, but no reason to adjust for every model run at this point . Let’s see where we are after tomorrows 12z.
  14. WxUSAF
    Tomer Burg posted elsewhere that it apparently is a know euro problem with ZR vs sleet. I think very little ZR for the metro areas. Maybe FZDZ at the very end.
  15. WxUSAF
    Yeah I think we’re trading a slightly cooler column for a less intense WAA thump with most 12z runs? Think @SnowenOutThereMentioned this? All minor changes relatively.
  16. WxUSAF
    Seems drier overall?
  17. WxUSAF
    Interpolating @stormtrackermaps, maybe snow until 21-22z Sunday? I’d take that for sure.
  18. WxUSAF
    Look at GFS H5 at 150hrs (not exactly crazy fantasy land). Huge shortwave entering California. Very un-Nina like and very classic for big dog coastals.
  19. WxUSAF
    Great write up in the varsity thread @MillvilleWx! I think the cold temps during and after the storm are going to low key be really surprising and impactful. Just zero melting.
  20. WxUSAF
    So many fewer posts than the last couple days. Refreshed after gfs and only like 2 new pages of comments. Everyone’s already exhausted lol
  21. WxUSAF
    Fwiw at 60hrs, snow/sleet line along KY/TN border looks fairly similar between 3k NAM, FV3, and RGEM.
  22. WxUSAF
    At the end of the 3k NAM run, it has the snow/sleet line notably south of 12k NAM in Kentucky. Maybe 50mi? fwiw NAM thermals are definitely worth watching, but like starting with tomorrows 12z or 18z?
  23. WxUSAF
    That seems reasonable. Doesn’t CHO usually CAD better than the metro area?
  24. WxUSAF
    Maybe only slushy accumulations on grass car tops? @paulythegun
  25. WxUSAF
    Freezing rain can definitely happen at those temps, but you need a crazy strong and shallow inversion aloft (I.e., very warm air just above the surface). We’ll see on Saturday what soundings look like. I think our area will mostly mix wirh sleet and maybe go to freezing drizzle at the end (which often happens as storms wind down and dry air starts moving in aloft).
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