WxUSAF

temp down to 31 and falling.

You’re doing good, rookie. Keep it up! But do the homework for Monday!

Wondering about my Monday afternoon flight. In isolation, I think BWI will be fully operational by then. But 2-3 days of nationwide flight disruptions are going to take a while to clean out. So dunno.

Wow, even JB is done this this storm. We’re in good (awful) company. So I don’t hide my own post for banter, temp still 37. Major drop hasn’t started yet.

@mattie g update on Fairfax school status for Monday-Friday??

One post about the euro 24-30 hours out. Lol. We’re all so freaking exhausted by this storm. Meet you in the LR thread??

I think 12” is pretty unlikely unless we hold onto good ratios for awhile or something early. For eastern HoCo, I think 6-8” of snow and 1-3” of sleet. So I think double digit accumulations are certainly possible. Max snow DEPTH might never much exceed 6-7” though. Once the pingers start, we’ll compact a lot

I feel like we’re just windshield wipering a bit now. With 12z we thought maybe we were inching in a better direction and now 18 has been mixed. Seems like mostly it will come down to how thumpy things are and when we precisely change to sleet.

Many/most runs today have really heavy snow leading into the flip. Like that 14-17z period probably 1-2”/hr

Sometimes!!

Oh I totally dream about model runs and reading/posting on here

Took a melatonin and went to sleep at 930 last night. Still woke up before freaking 4am and started worrying about the MFing 0z euro. Went back to sleep for another hour at least after an hour of imagining digital sleet.

Hrrr has it in the low-mid teens by midnight. About 15F drop in 3 hours around 23-02z

lol

Increment me 6 more times daddy!

Guess I don’t know how things have shifted, but that seems real good for CHO ( @SnowenOutThere) and central VA?

Freezing spray advisory issued for the Bay and Potomac!! Where you at @yoda!?!?

This. Blend tomorrow’s 12z 3k with the euro and you’re probably on target. Or just take the snowiest model and assume 15:1 ratios?

So ready not to look at model output for this storm anymore…just freaking get on with it and start snowing!

FWIW, I think HRRR soundings support this pretty well by eye.

This is exactly what we want to look for now. Absolute firehose from 6-18z. As for ratios, I think the dream of lots of high ratio snow is mostly gone with the way this storm has evolved. I think the really early stuff (6-10z or so?) could be higher ratio when the column is coldest. But snow will also be lighter then. But maybe we can do a 12-15:1 on average during that? But after 10z-ish, I think we fall back into normal range. If you’re in a subsidence band at some point, ratios will suck. If you get deathbanded, they’ll go back up for a time. But probably averaging a normal 9-11:1.

Right now I’d go 7-11” for HoCo, Baltimore, and HarCo. 6-8” for DC. 21” for Norrisville.

Apple weather still saying 20” Sunday. Where the hell is this coming from? Does the entire field a huge disservice cause it’s been saying 20”+ all freaking week and it’s not happening.

This is all we need to root for at this point. Max precip in the 6-18z window. No light stuff, need a pummeling.

Whoa RGEM. I think these “shifts” we’re seeing now are mostly down to details of banding changing between runs. Are the Synoptics really changing at this point? Someone will get banded, that will hold off mix for a time. Someone will get subsidence and mix a little sooner.