WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Going to assume 20-30:1 ratios based on my last snowfall
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Not sure if it’s the coastal per se or just good dynamics (jet entrance region and frontogenesis). They’re all linked of course. Maybe. Seems like Sunday is the stronger wave. @SnowenOutTherehas the hot hand. I did the December 2nd rain thread
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Nice consensus at 12z. Now just needs to hold for 90 hours.
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Euro AI is consistent with the idea of coastal development on Sunday. Definitely the solution PHL-BOS is rooting for. Don’t know how much snow for our area. Probably 1-3”ish?
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0z and 6z euro looked a lot like gfs and ukie?
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Nice right entrance region of the jet max over us also around 6-12z on the gfs.
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Something like that is showing up in the euro too. Tiny coastal enhancement? Need a 20-30mi north shift though.
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Yeah, I think that was the coldest Xmas of the 20 year period and it was the worst snowfall year ever for MBY.
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12/12: The little Friday clipper that could? Or won't.
WxUSAF replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Gonna ignore the white dot over my house -
Uh, well it Fs us both pretty badly, but other people cash in
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With potentially another Xmas torch staring us in the face, I decided to make a plot to see if it’s been as real as it feels or has been for years. So this plot is BWI above normal and much above normal (>=10F) occurrences from 2005-2024. Thicker lines are the year by year counts for each calendar day and thin lines are smoothed by 7 days. Short answer is yes…and the week after Xmas before new years has been the most torch prone.
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The warm pool moving eastward would be a good thing for us. Basically puts the background conditions to support the strongest convection (essentially the MJO) in a more favorable position for eastern troughing.
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Last Friday's storm almost disappeared for DC-north within 36 hours? So I don't expect much consistency on a weak vort in fast flow until like 0z Thursday.
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Just seems weak based on precip. Doesn’t give anybody a ton of love.
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EPS likes Friday more than Sunday.
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Euro AI is nothing for Friday outside the mountains. Sunday leans north of us, but dusting for DC, 1” for Baltimore, near 2” along M/D line
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There it is on 12z gfs. Which is more inevitable? Thanos or Torchmas?
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GGEM follows icon and Fs us twice
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Gfs Friday clipper looks great and then falls the F apart, but not before giving VA some much deserved snow!
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Sort of similar to GEPS, but better over the pole. That’s a gradient look, but obviously a lot of cold air available to tap. Not shut the blinds.
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And 6z GEFS completely flips to se ridge
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The torch/SE ridge progs have stayed firmly beyond D10 for weeks now. Maybe this one is different but I want to see it inside of D7 first before I buy it. Persistent MJO phase 8 argue against it.
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12-14 as the low depending on which PWS I look at.
