WxUSAF

@winter_warlock find the banter thread dude

If people cared like with snow, people would be panicking at the 18z hrrr’s precip totals for the weekend

MLK storm in January 2022 was sorta like that. Was low teens the morning it started, got a couple inches of snow, mixed, turned to heavy rain. No thunder that I recall.

Yeah going to be volatile tracking for sure. Jan-Feb 2014 had most events pop up in short to medium range. @Bob Chillmentions this. But the more shots on goal we get, and at peak climo as @psuhoffman said, the better chance we get.

Apologies if it was already mentioned but GFSAI has a couple rounds of winter weather it looks like. Different solutions to all the possible events vs Ops though.

3” in a week is solid when there’s not a single event to key on

And keep ticking that all west. “Classic” east coast storms have the H5 trough go neutrally tilted near the MS river and negative around the time it hits the Apps. We’ve definitely moved in the right direction in that regard, but the reason OTS solutions still occur (aside from phasing challenges) is the trough is too positively tilted.

@mitchnick’s EPS is definitely a small step back at 18z. Only slight positive improvement is the northern stream in Canada is farther ahead than 12z. But our trough is obviously flatter.

That could be more of a timing difference. Hard to say.

Definitely a west shift on GEFS vs 12z. More like 6z, but a sharper trough.

There was a story recently of the first confirmed bobcat in Harford county MD in like 100+ years. So they may be expanding their ranges.

We need more wolves and mountain lions

Most Canada geese in our area are non-migratory

Poor ball spacing

And presumably that’s all basically from the 15-17th?

Kicker is very strong and south

We get teased with these mega-overrunning scenarios, but they just seems way to complicated to ever pull off

GGEM ole’s us 2-3 times. Tantalizingly close.

All 3 metro airports were BN for the first week of January, even with a double digit AN day yesterday. RIC is above normal for the month because yesterday was so warm.

Euro was about to do something D10-11 and then it sheared it to hell

GGEM doesn’t quite get it to happen, but some snow for our region late next week. Particularly N/W areas. Sloppy phase as guidance keeps showing.

Yeah your last sentence is key. If you ignore everything else and just look at ensemble mean D10-15 plots, that is the opposite of “shit the blinds and get ready for spring”. -AO, -EPO, +PNA, tropospheric PV in our hemisphere, neutral to -NAO, broad continental trough over eastern 2/3rds. That all says winter to me. Do we underachieve and waste it? Always a chance and maybe a decent chance due to residual Nina-ness.

Those are good points and certainly need to be kept in mind. I think small sample size is definitely a cautionary point as well. If you look at wind plots, OLR, and SSTs though, you see that guidance would put the most rising motion and convection in a canonically pretty good location for us: east of the maritime continent towards the central pacific. That should provide sub seasonal forcing that is favorable for winter weather. You can also look at atmospheric angular momentum and see that the global atmosphere doesn’t look very Nina-like right now. A lot of above normal AAM in the tropics. So I don’t know which of these factors win out. I don’t at all think we’re done with snow and cold. Will this winter be a memorable one? I also doubt that.

Assuming that’s all falling after D7, that’s basically climo for a 1 week period in mid January.