WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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If/when the GFS shows a MECS, that's when it will really break out because I think that's what the Apple weather app uses predominately?
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He’s a f-ing troll to own the climate libs?
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I don’t have @psuhoffman’s photographic memory for random 6z runs of failed storms, but my memory for late February last year was we had this amazing signal but guidance was never keying in on the same storm or shortwave? It was more of a several day period that looked good (and failed). So this looks quite different with a clear shortwave and storm development scenario.
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Debbie Downer wants to remind everyone that there are reasons we have had like 1 KU in a La Nina in the history of the Mid-Atlantic region since the last glacial maximum
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@mappy our Norrisville dude has reported a 2-day total of 7.6"! Guy right across the border in Stewartstown has 4.7".
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Yeah, suppression is by far the most likely fail scenario, especially if you sort of lump that in with "basically no storm because the shortwave doesn't really eject".
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My wife left to go to work this morning and she said she had to brake in our neighborhood for the recycling truck and she started skidding.
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I mean, I think it's all linked? The shortwave coming out will pump heights out ahead of it, but the strength of the trop PV (and associated HP at the surface) is trying to squash it. If you look at 12z Friday as a point in time, yes, the GFS has the upper low farther west off the California coast, but Euro/EuroAI aren't *that* much farther east. But the GFS has the height field over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS much lower.
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The one caveat, which is hard to evaluate, is whether the high pressure (and associated upper level configuration) will be so anomalous, that the AI will, by its nature, not predict it. The AI models are trained on some amount of reanalysis, and so they can't/won't predict extreme or record-breaking events well. Will this setup be record-breaking? Hard to say. But that's something to keep in mind when evaluating the AI models vs the physics-based models.
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After every exciting run, people should just mutter this to themselves: “It’s La Niña and I live near DC. It’s La Niña and I live near DC.”
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They changed their minds again
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Yea
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BWI had 0.2” yesterday. Haven’t seen anything for IAD or DCA.
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Low of 16
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Has a second major snow mid next week. What a weenie run.
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6z euro ai amps things up more than last couple runs. Hard to say with TT plots, but maybe snow-ice-snow? Tons of precip.
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Yup. Wet roads from earlier and the snow melt from the first burst is now all ice. Kids would be getting late opening or more tomorrow if it wasn’t already a holiday.
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1/18: 0.5” 4.3” season total
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0.5” official report. Hit my 0.5-2” range!
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Same
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0.4”. Beat yesterday!
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It needs to start blizzarding at Foxborough to make this game watchable
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Sorry ass 0.2” so far. Sorry ass 4.0” for the season.
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Totally off topic, but what's happened with the Maryland electrical choice? BGE is the only option? There used to be many options?
