WxUSAF

Euro was about to do something D10-11 and then it sheared it to hell

GGEM doesn’t quite get it to happen, but some snow for our region late next week. Particularly N/W areas. Sloppy phase as guidance keeps showing.

Yeah your last sentence is key. If you ignore everything else and just look at ensemble mean D10-15 plots, that is the opposite of “shit the blinds and get ready for spring”. -AO, -EPO, +PNA, tropospheric PV in our hemisphere, neutral to -NAO, broad continental trough over eastern 2/3rds. That all says winter to me. Do we underachieve and waste it? Always a chance and maybe a decent chance due to residual Nina-ness.

Those are good points and certainly need to be kept in mind. I think small sample size is definitely a cautionary point as well. If you look at wind plots, OLR, and SSTs though, you see that guidance would put the most rising motion and convection in a canonically pretty good location for us: east of the maritime continent towards the central pacific. That should provide sub seasonal forcing that is favorable for winter weather. You can also look at atmospheric angular momentum and see that the global atmosphere doesn’t look very Nina-like right now. A lot of above normal AAM in the tropics. So I don’t know which of these factors win out. I don’t at all think we’re done with snow and cold. Will this winter be a memorable one? I also doubt that.

Assuming that’s all falling after D7, that’s basically climo for a 1 week period in mid January.

Holy shit!

^what time period has the improvement? Around the 15th? Later?

Perma-Nina makes stream phasing more complicated than usual. Next year’s moderate Modiki Nino is going to have triple phasers galore. Trust.

That’s definitely a window. At the super fantasy time range, GFS and Euro both have big dog potential and verbatim don’t get it to quite work out. eta…good day for the “D10+ op runs should look similar to the ensemble means” rule

Today’s a great day to fire John Harbaugh!

A lot of the problems that existed all season was the reason they lost last night, even more than Loop. No pash rush, poor defensive secondary (especially without Hamilton), horrific O-line pass blocking, penalties, etc. They were who we thought they were.

Pretty dismal offense after first drive

You wait and see. Daniel Faalele in the wildcat gonna hit like a D3 Euro KU

Can everyone now please follow @NorthArlington101’s example and continue this fascinating discussion in banter?

GFSAI has some digital blue in fantasy range. Everyone get a little hit to tide you over. First hit is free, then you gotta pay.

First GFS fantasy storm in how many days?? And lookee lookee GEFS looks like euro ai ensembles now.

Couple close calls on euro AI D9+

EPS got colder overnight as well. GFS digging troughs to Mexico City is gone. Just need some fantasy range storms to start popping again.

Maybe a blip, but 6z GEFS is a big change in a more positive direction for us. Much deeper -NAO/-AO and it keeps a trough in the east until the very end of the run, when it’s still a very workable gradient pattern.

Ok enough Hoffman chatter.

Nice! Birdwatching is my big hobby. Was debating driving to Great Falls VA today. Very rare bird there the last 2 days. Red-flanked Bluetail.

His second most recent post is literally “I’m very optimistic for January”

Reduction in soundings should impact all forecasts, but perhaps not equally given different data assimilation methods. Not sure how you’d “normalize” it so to speak, but I think comparing forecast accuracy between winter 24-25 and 25-26 would be a very interesting study.