WxUSAF

FWIW, I think HRRR soundings support this pretty well by eye.

This is exactly what we want to look for now. Absolute firehose from 6-18z. As for ratios, I think the dream of lots of high ratio snow is mostly gone with the way this storm has evolved. I think the really early stuff (6-10z or so?) could be higher ratio when the column is coldest. But snow will also be lighter then. But maybe we can do a 12-15:1 on average during that? But after 10z-ish, I think we fall back into normal range. If you’re in a subsidence band at some point, ratios will suck. If you get deathbanded, they’ll go back up for a time. But probably averaging a normal 9-11:1.

Right now I’d go 7-11” for HoCo, Baltimore, and HarCo. 6-8” for DC. 21” for Norrisville.

Apple weather still saying 20” Sunday. Where the hell is this coming from? Does the entire field a huge disservice cause it’s been saying 20”+ all freaking week and it’s not happening.

This is all we need to root for at this point. Max precip in the 6-18z window. No light stuff, need a pummeling.

Whoa RGEM. I think these “shifts” we’re seeing now are mostly down to details of banding changing between runs. Are the Synoptics really changing at this point? Someone will get banded, that will hold off mix for a time. Someone will get subsidence and mix a little sooner.

Don’t think this guy is on here. But I like his snow map

Love it @Ellinwood!

Just based on @stormtrackermaps I would have guessed more snow than 12z. Whatever. I’m about done for today. Need a brain break.

More interesting question for GEFS: are they following the Op with that progression? How many look like other guidance?

Oh god we’ve reached JB ocean temp wishcasting stage

DT first guess looks pretty good? Excited for second forecast revision C.

Lol if anything it’s moving farther from the other model consensus. Will it fold in one dramatic shift? Or will all other guidance bow to its superior predictions!??!?!

Yeah but that’s an enormous shortwave trough. AIGFS looks more or less like the other model consensus

GFS kills the Apps running low around Roanoke. Hands it off to the coastal and that keeps precip going. It’s the only model I’ve seen with that.

Might weenie myself for this, but seems like other 18z runs are at least taking a partial step toward the GFS with separating the 2 parts more? But yeah, hard to trust GFS thermal and the strong second part isn’t showing up in other guidance really.

And we (probably) got it way better than the NC weenies… Too much info is 100% a problem with this hobby. With the way models roll out now, there’s almost always a new model run to look at. Round the clock. Like a social media algorithm designed to keep you clicking. Most effective method for me is to put my phone in a different room and leave it there. Plan to do it again at 7pm tonight.

That is a deep and cold surface layer. I dunno. I remember seeing some of the profiles from the 1994 super cold ZR events and the near surface inversion was bonkers. Upper 10s to like 40-50 a stones throw up above.

Wish I had the willpower to do that! And this site sometimes… Certainly feels like one bad run always starts a trend.

Look at the bottom right of the chart. What am I missing?

Yeah I feel all that. This is a pretty shitty hobby and we’re in a historic snow drought. My son asked me something similar last weekend “why does it always get worse for snow?” Lol. Don’t have much useful advice except take a step back for your own mental health. 18z euro yesterday sorta triggered me for some reason and I just put my phone away at 7pm for the rest of the night. I wish I had the strength to just ignore everything until snow starts falling Saturday evening lol.

He speaks the beast into existence

If snow is the target, 18z RGEM is a step above 12z. Big step for far southern zones.

Says sleet as precip type?

BAM posted RRFS but I guess using the model’s internally calculated SLR? Actually adds a little snow above this plot, especially for southern 3/4s of the region by my eye.