WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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If this trend continues, by Christmas the EPS will have 512” forecast!!
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Aggressive trade. That’s an impressive prospect haul plus a draft pick. But Baz is a solid get for several seasons. Could have #2-3 caliber stuff
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Line did a nice split around you @MN Transplant
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Ha yah that fits
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Seems like very little rain so far IMBY. 0.15”?
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Today will presumably break the streak of 21 days/3 weeks of below normal temps. That’s an impressive run. When was the last time we had a streak that long? I thought Feb-Mar 2015, but that didn’t have that many consecutive BN days. Nov-Dec 1989 had 32 days!
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Yeah both the low and high pressure are weaker and the low is really slow coming east.
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Fun and wacky things can happen with major blocks. Note that in those GFS charts @CAPEposted, the PAC side still isn’t great but it’s not total trash. Trough only extends down to Seattle or so and has a tilt toward the SW offshore. Allows a little ridging at a good longitude for us. So you can couple a C- Pac side with an A+ Atlantic side and that absolutely can work.
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Weeklies saying we have to wait doesn’t mean I was waiting
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That dark red that pops up over Baffin Island on last nights EPS is quite appealing.
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If all you wanted for christmas or Hanukkah was one more global weather model, you got it! AIGFS is now on tropical tidbits. I think this is the “hybrid” AIGFS and not the graph cast GFS? @high risk?
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Except there’s shit at the end of it instead of gold
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If we care about the euro weeklies, looks like things are mostly crappy until the last week (19-26 Jan) when the PAC ridge shifts east into Alaska and BC. Until then…ehhh…
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GGEM has some snow and mix for Xmas
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Hmm yeah there are similarities. Euro AI has that giant tropospheric PV in Canada provide just enough confluence without squashing it. GFS squashes it. High latitudes on euro AI otherwise look like trash at that time frame lol. Definitely a unicorn setup but not much else happening…
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Since we’re in grasping at straws stage, 6z euro AI has a snow/mix event after Xmas. Actually a nice setup and close to something a lot bigger. Interestingly (?), overnight EPS pushes a trough over us in the same time period and retrogrades the pig ridge in the Plains for a few days.
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This is an interesting combo of indices: -WPO/-AO/-NAO/-PNA/+EPO. Maybe someone with better analog knowledge than I can show some examples. I think it's one that obviously favors New England a lot more than us. But I think it will remind us how the Pacific drives the bus for us more than the Atlantic. It hopefully keeps Canada cold though, so if we can get the EPO or PNA back toward neutral at least, that should quickly open the door back to winter precip chances.
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Ah good call! That’s it
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1958 per WBAL well wait…he has a weird caveat about “since 1950”
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BWI tied record low max of 26
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12z GEFS (but last few runs also) really leaning into the -NAO developing after Xmas. Bulk that up and a well timed 50/50 low can get something to pass underneath us or provide a CAD event with a low passing to our west.
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12/14: 2.0” 3.4” season total
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Low of 15. Deep winter feel. Even in good winters we don’t get many days like yesterday and today.
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“Average” line cuts through our region on all 4 clusters
