WxUSAF

Put down the tropicaltidbits everyone!

@psuhoffmani definitely went the chickenshit hedging route. Leaned euro but hedged lower. So basically as long as 12z/18z NAM doesn’t verify verbatim (or worse jesusallahbuddah save us), I should be able to hit the low end range I gave. eta…RGEM deathbands us to hell before the flip. Such dark digital blue it’s almost black!

Going to close this. It’s game time! May the odds be ever in our favor!

After action discussion will be interesting either way

Having the euro as the snowiest model is certainly better than our usual situation! Wish we didn’t have the NAM threatening us lol

Gotta thumpy thump between 3-10am. That’s the whole ballgame.

Good luck folks. Hope you all stay safe!

@MN Transplanthow we looking on CC radar??

Definitely not dismissing it for us. I’m mentally assuming a changeover somewhere between the times the NAM and euro suggest. Maybe 15-16z for us?

White painted plywood is ideal. For this storm where all surfaces will be equally cold, a patio table would work. Especially if it isn’t blocked by your house.

I’d go with same as Columbia. I feel pretty confident that anyone measuring properly on a snowboard in our areas tomorrow will have >=6” of combined snow and sleet. Snow DEPTH could stay under that if things break poorly but probably will exceed.

Monday and Tuesday are basically locks I think. What area?

22” of pure 100% unadulterated pow-pow for Norrisville

How I’m going to react to my first snowboard measurement around 6-7am tomorrow: ~1”: oh fuck oh god please no it’s all happening again ~2”: ugh. Hopefully it’s snowing like crazy at this time ~3”: ok, maybe we can make this if DC isn’t already pinging ~4”: yeah baby ~5”+: haha! Fuck you nam!

What i sent to friends just now FWIW Final Columbia area forecast. 5-9” of snow, 1-3” of sleet, light freezing rain or drizzle at the end. Highly recommend shoveling first around 9-10am tomorrow so the second round is manageable. It’s going to compact down into a ~7” deep glacier. For Harford County I said 6-10” snow and 1-2” sleet

I KNEW YOU COULD DO IT

So my recommendation and plan is to take the euro and 3k NAM, weight them with gut feeling and a dash of weenie hopium and call it a day. But YMMV.

Could someone post euro QPF by 12z tomorrow? And 15, 18z?

Come on Euro!! COME ON! BE THE KING!!

@high risk how much can I hug the HREF to toss the nams? 6-8” of snow and little ZR for the metros, so presumably sleet on there. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=frzrfram_024h_mean&sector=conus (Toggle other winter parameters)

I mean, potato/poh-ta-to when talking about bad luck in a Nina. Northern stream just doesn't play nice! Way too much shit going on and something almost always comes in to screw it up one way or another. OH valley has climo AN precipitation and snow during a Nina for a reason. We have BN precip/snow during a Nina for a reason. Anomalous events can happen, but usually they don't. Let's say DC reports 6" combined snow/sleet accumulation tomorrow. That's a solid Nina storm! But yeah, nowhere even close to historic.

My chickenshit answer is to not toss them completely. If the euro and NAM stay apart at 12z, take a 70/30 or maybe 60/40 split favoring the euro?

36 hours out. Euro should be dominant with synoptic evolution! But yeah, sometimes even the champ can get beat.

Not the NAM, but same idea here. Quick glance looks like NAM is in the same camp as RRFS with 850 low and wind.

Rates have gone way up. And for reasons I don’t understand, other suppliers have totally pulled out of the market.