WxUSAF

Probably emphasis on the "dead"

Light frost in Ellicott City just north of 70

First time playing Mahomes?

18z euro AI snow us early Nov

Official records for Baltimore go back to the 1870s I think? So we have about 150 years of data. And of the coldest 54 winters, only 3 come from the last 25 years.

Now do literally all the other winter months in the 21st century

Right next to Lake Elkhorn

Hmmm I thought it was a low flying plane or big truck nearby. But I felt that.

lol what are these Stiller uniforms?? lol sooooo bad

Snoop played great. So fun to watch Keaton Mitchell play. Even if apparently the bears had to know exactly what was coming if he's on the field

I guess it’s good to hold them to 6 points when they had the ball for about 14 mins in the first quarter?

IAD is actually like Oct 20? BWI around Nov 1 and DCA in mid January.

We always get excited for great patterns in late November and early December and usually it leads to some days with highs in the mid 40s and a rainy storm or two. Much rather get cooking after December 15 or 20.

Glad euro and AI are back onboard

Down on the southern eastern shore camping and enjoying the incredible dark sky. Can see Comet Lemmon and the Milky Way! Hope the frost stays back home lol.

Interesting comparison of positive/negative AMO winters with this ENSO state. For sensible outcomes, the -AMO list is snowier for us I think than the +AMO outside the 95-96 fluke.

No frost on my car but some rooftop frost in my neighborhood

37 for the MBY low

0z euro and 0z gfs have the “La Nina screw job” solution. Although they’re a pretty big change from earlier runs. Euro AI still a pretty big hit.

Mid-late April?

Kind of seeing the outlines of typical Nina winter storm disappointment in late next weeks action. Still a good chance we get some rain, but you can see how we get fringed in almost every direction. It’s a multi-low pressure sequence. First the southern stream low Sunday-Thesday is pretty consistent across guidance that it passes to our south and scoots out to sea. Then the strong northern stream shortwave dives in and generates a coastal low somewhere. How and where and if any juice from Melissa gets involved is very TBD. But guidance (0z euro) is throwing out various solutions that mostly skip over us. Some still deluge us as well. But what’s Nina climo for late developing coastal lows near our latitude?? Yeah…

Or maybe the AI doesn’t explicitly model ptypes? And it’s just weatherbell saying precip+850-0C line = snow?

First week too based on 12z ensembles. You’d think we’d be able to get widespread freezes with that look…

12z euro is insulting

Not surprising given it’s still D8+, but next weeks big storm still has a ton of uncertainty. 0z euro and 6z gfs skip over us entirely. Euro-AI gets us pretty good still though and EPS more or less agrees.