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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    RGEM is juicy. 1”+ stripe centered on I66/Rt50 corridor.
  2. WxUSAF
    FWIW (nothing), I think the NAM would have given us snow from the IVT after 84 hours.
  3. WxUSAF
    By the stats it’s better than the icon, but worse than the GGEM and its AI version.
  4. WxUSAF
    March is easy #1 worst weather month of the year outside of 1993 and 2017 and 2014
  5. WxUSAF
    “Fun” that we jumped into crappy March weather 2 weeks early
  6. WxUSAF
    Top analogs for next winter going to be 02-03, 09-10, 82-83, and something from the 1890s.
  7. WxUSAF
    Apparently there was some storm recon plane data fed into the 18z cycle. More coming for 0z.
  8. WxUSAF
    Good happy hour. I’m not going to kick a 2-4” event out of bed if that’s what it ends up being.
  9. WxUSAF
    Yup. Honestly I’d probably want to be between Baltimore and like Trenton NJ if I was betting…
  10. WxUSAF
    One plus of this IVT scenario is that it’s mostly after dark Sunday evening so no solar radiation concerns and slightly better temps. Otherwise, a lot less pluses lol
  11. WxUSAF
    22.8” mean and 17” median in my 17 years in Columbia. Last 10 years have mean of 13.5” and median of 14.5”. All assuming no additional snow this year.
  12. WxUSAF
    Driving different way to work on route 1 in beltsville and there are still giant snow piles in the traffic lanes! Wtf!?
  13. WxUSAF
    There’s your IVT Yup, they tend to move north and east with shorter leads.
  14. WxUSAF
    Seems the most common theme on guidance for Sunday is an inverted trough somewhere through the region as a focus for precip (snow or rain). Those are notoriously tricky to locate well in advance but can give some lucky people a nice event if the stars align. Even the AI models have this IVT to some degree.
  15. WxUSAF
    End of a long thread
  16. WxUSAF
    What are we looking for on the weeklies in late Feb?
  17. WxUSAF
    Daytime Miller B in late Feb with a trash heap antecedent airmass? ALL IN
  18. WxUSAF
    Did people think we’d escape a Nina winter without a Delmarva jackpot?
  19. WxUSAF
    Did a much too early check of GFS soundings and it’s only a very shallow area of above freezing temps. Like 975-980mb and below. Still don’t really want 34-35F at 2pm in late February though…
  20. WxUSAF
    It’s that time of year where you usually want to bet on the wedge winning in your temp and cloud forecasts…
  21. WxUSAF
    Nothing eats snowpack quite like fog
  22. WxUSAF
    This is definitely a legit threat. Timing during the week is similar to Jan 25 (Sunday start time plus or minus 12-18 hours). But I’ll note that for Jan 25, we also had pretty good consensus broadly for a storm on Tuesday. Wednesday 0z I think was when things jumped north and started showing the sleet mix. But they were pretty locked in after that point outside of some windshield wiper action on details.
  23. WxUSAF
    The things I would do…
  24. WxUSAF
    BWI snow depth is annoyingly missing for yesterday. Columbia area generally is still snowcovered on balance. Open sports fields, etc., mostly still have 1-2".
  25. WxUSAF
    of course
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