WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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0.45-5”. 18z nam’s rug pull was overdone
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If we can keep this trend going into winter of holding back warmth in the Plains and getting Canadian air into our area and the northeast, and that’s a big if, then that should support more snow-to-rain/mix and CAD events. But this trend has been durable for almost 4 months now. Seeing it manifest again with next week (after we saw it for this week earlier).
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Wow. Not sure about this.
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Anyone notice the 18z NAM 3k rug pull? Lol it’s winter already!
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Closest PWS is 26
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Down to freezing here already. Coldest night of the season so far?
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lol oh ha. Didn’t even catch that
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You think that’s low?
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WBAL winter forecast
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Can not deny this pattern’s been going on for a few months now where guidance keeps wanting to push a ridge into the northeast and it keeps not happening. With our luck this will flip just when we need it to happen for snow chances. But look at our area and the northeast for Friday evening vs a few days ago.
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I didn’t even watch much of the game because we were at an event and I’m still absolutely exhausted lol
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Jesus F Christ
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Ravens trying so damn hard to give it away
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Obviously all the details TBD, but it seems like every operational run the last couple days has some big Arctic outbreak happening or on the way Thanksgiving weekend. Out west and Plains favored, but plausible some cold gets to us behind a rainy cutter.
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Raked the yard yesterday. Guessing you won’t be able to tell by this evening.
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But it FEELS like it’s the windiest and that’s what really matters
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mid 70s in RIC now. Still ~50 near Baltimore and mid 50s in DC.
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Those MJO analogs are variable based on ENSO and they’re not always high correlation. But if a wave moves into Phase 8 strongly in mid December, that should be supportive of cold and snow chances.
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Have you tried their new taco menu? I thought they were decent.
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That February pattern looks like shit the blinds, but if Arctic air is entrenched to our NW, we can get some CAD events.
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I think the dry is going to remain stubborn until next spring-ish. And if we get a wet winter month it’s probably going to be mild overall. Just the nature of La Niña.
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For the moment it seems that the best pattern is not going to be Thanksgiving weekend, which as I’ve said, is a-ok with me. Much rather the second or third week of December and that seems to be the flavor of the long range guidance right now. That’s what @griteaterhas been saying as well.
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Nearest PWS got to 29
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^yeah, GEFS and EPS both have a strong +PNA/-EPO developing around Thanksgiving with our -NAO fading away. My instinct is that the PNA+EPO ridging is more useful for our early season snow chances since it’s a more effective cold air delivery mechanism and we need more anomalous BN temps in early December to snow.
