WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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29 as the low so far. Was hoping for colder.
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I certainly hope we get some period of productivity in January. A lot of the Ninas during the last ~10 years have had good January periods. I’m not enthusiastic on snowfall if our best patterns are early December and March.
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Yes
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Interesting that you have a sorta different subseasonal cycle than a lot of the other forecasts. But still end up in the typical Nina dud for snowfall (which I tend to agree).
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The stratosphere is much more predictable than the troposphere, so the long range ensembles do have “skill” beyond the typical 8-10 day sensible weather prediction limit. I want to say there is skill to 30-40 days?? It seems guidance often tries to predict these strat warming events a little too quickly and there are can kicks, but that’s my anecdotal observation.
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6z gfs right where we want it??
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This rain seems heavier and more widespread than what guidance was suggesting. And I’m still getting screwed.
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Freaking November and I’m still getting fringed with storms
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@CAPE enjoying this ravens O line performance?
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Fair point. The IOD and Nina are going to favor phases 5-6.
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Great thread from @griteater on the weakening early season Strat vortex and connections to a -NAO in December-ish. His two closest analogs are December 1981 and early January 1982 and December 2000. December-January 81/82 was a very cold and snowy period for our area, especially January. December 2000 was quite cold, but fairly dry without much snow.
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Some part of Chicago metro area (probably focused toward IL/IN border) going to get absolutely nuked with lake effect tomorrow into Monday
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I was at that game!
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Totally my anecdotal observations, but it seems like the weeklies are ok at picking out a single “pattern change” during the forecast period, but then don’t properly show how that new pattern may evolve or change. So I buy a “good” pattern develops after thanksgiving, but I doubt it looks the same for the subsequent 4 weeks.
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Neither say SE Howard though. Probably just an accidental oversight.
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Hmmm. Doesn’t say Howard, but has everywhere around us?
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Per the mesonet, only the immediate areas along the Bay avoided a freeze this morning.
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This is what I’m talking about when I say I don’t want our best pattern in early December though. Yeah, 4” in the first 3 weeks of December is above climo, but it still isn’t that much!
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First freeze IMBY!
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JB2 going snowiest Nina since 95-96?
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Per Webb, HM is very bullish on January. But not sure where he’s getting that from. Everyone seems onboard with a cold December. I’m still not sold on a snowy December though.
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GGEM has that upper low thing as well, but farther south so brings the "snow" through NC and southern VA. On a different note, all the 12z ops have completely punted any real warmup for mid-month. Have to see if ensembles agree.
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Placeholder for now. BWI: 9.8” DCA: 6.4” IAD: 11.3” RIC: 5.1” SBY: 7.8”
