WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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I think that makes a lot of sense with how deep this arctic airmass is. These NAM runs are going to be showing like 3-4” of sleet I’d bet for the mid-south in the next couple days.
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NAM more phased than6z euro at 72 hours. NAM gonna NAM?
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Would be pretty clutch right now to NOT have stopped a bunch of Alaska upper air launches
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FWIW, we’re in that range where EuroAI has been deadly and I think pretty much our entire sub would sign up for its 6z in a hot minute.
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Just saw a 0z vs 6z Ukie H5 change plot on Twitter. Quite a bit less interaction between N and S shortwaves at 21z Friday. TPV also pressing more to our north. We’re probably going to windshield wiper a bit but with progressively less amplitude for next 24-48 hours?
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Obviously this is a very anomalous event, so maybe the usual rules don’t apply. But I’m keeping some otherwise very durable seasonal and La Niña patterns in my mind: short-term deamplification, suppressing SE ridge, destructive interference from the northern jet, and drier reality than modeled.
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Apple weather helpfully predicting 23-29” storm total
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A trade we’re making with this stronger phasing is more precip for a mix risk. And potentially that’s a trade that could get us more snow in total. Going to see some ridiculous QPF predictions from the mesos by tomorrow. Technically 99% isn’t a lock?
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14” was horrible?? lol
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No. It was a pounding WAA thump (14” for me), then drizzle all day, and then a few more inches of snow in the evening with the ULL.
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RE: mixing, I was thinking that to myself yesterday that a giant phasing trough over Colorado would normally be screaming cutter. Only that beast of a NAO/50-50 combo forces it south. But shows how much wiggle room we have here for a major event.
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Good morning weenies. People have been mentioning Feb 2014 at times for this storm. I don’t remember the synoptic setup, but I remember that beatdown of a WAA thump. Maybe this is a colder version? 12” EPS mean is bonkers. Hitting NAM/RGEM range for storm start time with the 12z suite!
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I would think this probably wouldn’t be ingested for 0z. Probably 6z?
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Only 3 complete whiffs and 1 scraper on 18 EPS per @Weather Will’s maps? As I recall @NorthArlington101said it was like 7 and 2 for 12z?
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I went out about 15mins ago. Maybe the tiniest red/purple shading on a 10s exposure mixed in with sky glow from light pollution?
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Great work @SnowenOutThere!
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Got to smell the sleet to get the goods
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In some of the lightest green #blessed
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0z going to have a cutter to Detroit. But glad it and the AI shit out all tha bad chili from 12z
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Early Thursday also my mental mark on the wall
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My mental response: THEY aren’t saying shit. Your dumbass app is saying 24”. I wouldn’t say any amounts to normies right now. WTOP just said “at least 1-4” for areas SW of DC.” Like I totally get being conservative, but any amounts looks pretty dumb right now! If I HAD to make a forecast right now, it would be a lot more than 1-4”!
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What has stuck out to me today is that there seem to be a pretty wide range of phasing scenarios that still give us a major storm. GFS skunked us because the northern wave was weak and the southern wave didn’t eject and there was no phasing. Seemingly any other combination of shortwave options is giving us SOMETHING. That to me is a major confidence booster that we’re not relying on perfect phasing or timing to get a snow.
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Not sure it matters, but looks the opposite to me?
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I’ve had both my kids and a neighbor text me about the storm today. And it was just mentioned in a work meeting (although they didn’t ask for my opinion). Normies gonna get crazy in another day or two if things stay on track.
