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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    We don’t speak of March 2013 in Maryland
  2. WxUSAF
    Yeah but it’s still improved over 0z. Other guidance is all very good for the beaches.
  3. WxUSAF
    I think something like 2-6” is a reasonable call for the metro area right now. More for the beaches. Potentially a screw zone somewhere in between?
  4. WxUSAF
    Jan 2011 storm had that pounding ULL snow after dark with similar surface temps. Think it was like 7-8:1 ratios?
  5. WxUSAF
    @psuhoffman and RehobOth jackpots. I’d shave like 25-50% off 10:1 depending on location. Still an improved run.
  6. WxUSAF
    Yeah AI is stronger and a bit west with the coastal. Surface temps are what they are…I’d rely on Op euro and 3k NAM most for those
  7. WxUSAF
    I think you’ll do very well, but I think highest totals are north of our sub
  8. WxUSAF
    Coastal NJ, LI, up to eastern Mass gonna get wrecked
  9. WxUSAF
    Think this is the first time I’ve looked at the Ukie for this. And yes it made a big step to the GFS and yes it still looks like trash for anyone not standing on the beach lol
  10. WxUSAF
    So far there’s seems to be a bit of meeting in the middle with the 12z suite. But other guidance is taking more steps toward the Op GFS than the other way around. My guess still is the metro area will, in the end, be too far west for the coastal CCB snows. But this might be our La Niña Rehobeth blizzard…
  11. WxUSAF
    AI GFS is jumping into the Op GFS camp
  12. WxUSAF
    Cuz it’s an absolute dog shit antecedent airmass? RGEM overall has a lot to like. Better H5, closer tuck to the coastal, and a really nice IVT that gets most everyone in the metro area and east. Sorry CHO area…
  13. WxUSAF
    Paint those pretty colors right over HoCo plz. TIA!
  14. WxUSAF
    Justin Berk on Twitter calling the inverted trough a “deformation zone”
  15. WxUSAF
    3k NAM looks like it’s really starting to crank as it ends. Temp drops fast the last couple hours of the run approaching 0z Monday. Shows snow for a lot of the area all day Sunday but with temps of 35-36…that won’t do it. So white rain during the day except for coldest spots and then accumulating after 22-0z.
  16. WxUSAF
    I think this is broadly right but I think after dark it won’t be quite that bad…but yes on the general winners and losers gist
  17. WxUSAF
    My god everyone was driving so slow…
  18. WxUSAF
    GFS was on an island and now it’s not alone but it got joined by the NAM and srefs
  19. WxUSAF
    @GreyHat you’ve now posted comments about current weather in 2 different threads, neither of which is an obs thread
  20. WxUSAF
    Don’t think anyone talked about 6z rgem but it shows this well. Starts as snow for a lot of people and then mixing back and forth all day and then a solid IVT thump after dark. It’s 10:1 totals are 6-8” for some, but even in the coldest spots you’d never have that on the ground all at once.
  21. WxUSAF
    I could see a scenario where colder spots like you get a little accumulation early Sunday, then it melts away, and then more with the IVT.
  22. WxUSAF
    In my casual looking, euro and other guidance clearly made a big step toward gfs at 18z yesterday and then 0z and 6z have been a cumulative tiny step back from it. But we need like 2 more steps to get to the gfs. And I think gfs is inching toward the other guidance. We’re in a better spot than yesterday for sure, but gfs is still on a major island.
  23. WxUSAF
    The IVT snow is after dark so that makes a difference. But I could still see urban areas, especially if they’re on the fringe of the heaviest snow, struggle with accumulation. Core of the IVT, especially away from the UHI probably will have 10-12:1 ratios. Edge of the IVT in urban areas could be like 5:1…
  24. WxUSAF
    Think that’s a pretty good call for right now
  25. WxUSAF
    Seems like the heavy rain band is like 100mi north of where it was progged? Was supposed to be right through DC and it’s in southern PA?
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