WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Perma-Nina makes stream phasing more complicated than usual. Next year’s moderate Modiki Nino is going to have triple phasers galore. Trust.
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That’s definitely a window. At the super fantasy time range, GFS and Euro both have big dog potential and verbatim don’t get it to quite work out. eta…good day for the “D10+ op runs should look similar to the ensemble means” rule
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Today’s a great day to fire John Harbaugh!
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A lot of the problems that existed all season was the reason they lost last night, even more than Loop. No pash rush, poor defensive secondary (especially without Hamilton), horrific O-line pass blocking, penalties, etc. They were who we thought they were.
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Pretty dismal offense after first drive
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You wait and see. Daniel Faalele in the wildcat gonna hit like a D3 Euro KU
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Can everyone now please follow @NorthArlington101’s example and continue this fascinating discussion in banter?
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GFSAI has some digital blue in fantasy range. Everyone get a little hit to tide you over. First hit is free, then you gotta pay.
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First GFS fantasy storm in how many days?? And lookee lookee GEFS looks like euro ai ensembles now.
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Couple close calls on euro AI D9+
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EPS got colder overnight as well. GFS digging troughs to Mexico City is gone. Just need some fantasy range storms to start popping again.
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Maybe a blip, but 6z GEFS is a big change in a more positive direction for us. Much deeper -NAO/-AO and it keeps a trough in the east until the very end of the run, when it’s still a very workable gradient pattern.
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Ok enough Hoffman chatter.
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Nice! Birdwatching is my big hobby. Was debating driving to Great Falls VA today. Very rare bird there the last 2 days. Red-flanked Bluetail.
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His second most recent post is literally “I’m very optimistic for January”
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Reduction in soundings should impact all forecasts, but perhaps not equally given different data assimilation methods. Not sure how you’d “normalize” it so to speak, but I think comparing forecast accuracy between winter 24-25 and 25-26 would be a very interesting study.
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Uhhh…82-83 had a KU? 14-15 was a very good winter. 97-98 was a blowtorch super Nino. 06-07 and 18-19 were fair to good depending on location.
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One thing I’ve noted the last couple days is that the end of the op runs haven’t been looking like the ensemble means. This is @mitchnick’s anecdotal rule. Today there’s better similarity with non-GFS runs having a more or less favorable winter pattern for us D10-15.
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GEPS always looks dubiously cold at the surface. I think it’s a model bias.
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EPS-AI remains by far the best looking in the D10-15 range for pattern. EPS is good, but not as good. GEFS and GEPS have turned the good pattern into a cold front passage and then dump the trough right back out west and pump the SE ridge. They all have the EPO ridge develop but the precise ridge axis and the strength of any NAO ridging is really important to our sensible outcome
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1/1: 0.1" 3.5" season total
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12/31-1/1 Possible Snow Showers/Squalls to Start 2026
WxUSAF replied to bncho's topic in Mid Atlantic
Woke us up too. Then tried to go back to sleep and the wind hit like a freight train 40 mins later. Visibility was probably 1/10th of a mile or less. Could watch the driveway accumulate snow. It’s blown around so much since, but probably can count 0.1”. -
Best run yet easily
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Ha, our friends also made shrimp 3 ways.
