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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. Would she like to be my new best friend??
  2. Hi everyone. As it's November, I'd like to remind everyone that the next major holiday is Thanksgiving! A great American holiday that has nothing to do with Christmas!
  3. Despite (impressively) having 3 BN months in a row for much of the area, seems like we could be modestly behind schedule for first freeze for the inner burbs and cities if we don’t sneak one in over the next few days. Euro says next Friday morning should be in play.
  4. Happy November! 40F for the first morning low.
  5. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    Webb becoming increasingly bullish on Dec-Jan at least
  6. That seems like a tough assignment! How are you going to see a CB in November?? But agree with folks above that lenticular is probably impossible for all intents and purposes.
  7. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    Way better than Thanksgiving week
  8. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    The torch period in the 20-31 December period is pretty wildly consistent for like 15 years+. Even the few times we've had a chilly Xmas, we've had a really warm day or two the following or preceding week. But yes, I'll take any snow I can get. But some perfect track frontal wave on December 3 is more likely 2" of slop for me, 8" for PSU, and rain for DC whereas 2 weeks later it could be all snow for nearly everyone except DCA.
  9. Nice. I was going to guesstimate about 1.5” based on nearby PWSs. Right around NBM consensus.
  10. CFS isn’t even worth the electrons for single runs
  11. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    Not that it counts for anything, but I’ll again reiterate my preference that we delay any droolworthy pattern until Dec 15 or later. Climo improves so much through the first few weeks of winter. Shoveling feet of pattern for Thanksgiving just helps keep the leftovers chilled on the front porch.
  12. Thought I’d wake up to finally seeing a complete precip shield but nope! 0.8-0.9” so far.
  13. Probably emphasis on the "dead"
  14. Light frost in Ellicott City just north of 70
  15. First time playing Mahomes?
  16. 18z euro AI snow us early Nov
  17. Official records for Baltimore go back to the 1870s I think? So we have about 150 years of data. And of the coldest 54 winters, only 3 come from the last 25 years.
  18. Now do literally all the other winter months in the 21st century
  19. Right next to Lake Elkhorn
  20. Hmmm I thought it was a low flying plane or big truck nearby. But I felt that.
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