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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Reduction in soundings should impact all forecasts, but perhaps not equally given different data assimilation methods. Not sure how you’d “normalize” it so to speak, but I think comparing forecast accuracy between winter 24-25 and 25-26 would be a very interesting study.
  2. WxUSAF
    Uhhh…82-83 had a KU? 14-15 was a very good winter. 97-98 was a blowtorch super Nino. 06-07 and 18-19 were fair to good depending on location.
  3. WxUSAF
    One thing I’ve noted the last couple days is that the end of the op runs haven’t been looking like the ensemble means. This is @mitchnick’s anecdotal rule. Today there’s better similarity with non-GFS runs having a more or less favorable winter pattern for us D10-15.
  4. WxUSAF
    GEPS always looks dubiously cold at the surface. I think it’s a model bias.
  5. WxUSAF
    EPS-AI remains by far the best looking in the D10-15 range for pattern. EPS is good, but not as good. GEFS and GEPS have turned the good pattern into a cold front passage and then dump the trough right back out west and pump the SE ridge. They all have the EPO ridge develop but the precise ridge axis and the strength of any NAO ridging is really important to our sensible outcome
  6. WxUSAF
    1/1: 0.1" 3.5" season total
  7. WxUSAF
    Woke us up too. Then tried to go back to sleep and the wind hit like a freight train 40 mins later. Visibility was probably 1/10th of a mile or less. Could watch the driveway accumulate snow. It’s blown around so much since, but probably can count 0.1”.
  8. WxUSAF
    Best run yet easily
  9. WxUSAF
    Ha, our friends also made shrimp 3 ways.
  10. WxUSAF
  11. WxUSAF
    Don’t know what the rest of winter holds, but this was a very solid December by our standards. Below to much below normal temps and normal to above normal snow for about everyone (sorry Winchester and Stephen’s City).
  12. WxUSAF
    Nada IMBY
  13. WxUSAF
    Love it. Gonna kuchie my way to a 4” seasonal total.
  14. WxUSAF
    I get what you’re feeling @mitchnick, but more often than not since early August the trend has been the other way.
  15. WxUSAF
    I didn’t say it was a lot of digital blue
  16. WxUSAF
    Aleet aleet…digital blue on 18z euro for this weekend
  17. WxUSAF
    GFSAI also really cold at the end. Not a great run snow wise but less horrific to look at.
  18. WxUSAF
    Still a goofy ass evolution. Until proven otherwise, probably best to assume that trough doesn’t dig to Mexico City.
  19. WxUSAF
    Current ob: quite cold out. 29 with a wind chill of 22
  20. WxUSAF
    Euro weeklies were really good allegedly if you're up for grasping those straws
  21. WxUSAF
    Looks like a top 3 snow event of the season for MBY!
  22. WxUSAF
    The For You algorithm has me down pat
  23. WxUSAF
    Visualized. NAO weakens and Pac trough crashes in pushing a ridge east. Still lots of time for this to switch back thought.
  24. WxUSAF
    Maybe it flips back, but we had been looking at a -NAO dominated pattern for mid-late next week that gave us a chance at a storm. Last 2-3 cycles have diminished that by both weakening the NAO a bit and bringing that big PAC trough on shore (I think @Ralph Wiggumalluded to this?). After that we evolve into a PNA/EPO ridge pattern after the 10th and that seems more or less the same as it looked yesterday and the days prior.
  25. WxUSAF
    Euro and euroai were also dog shit but less stinky
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