WxUSAF

Tomer’s eclipse city dashboard shows 77% of ensemble members have “favorable” or “somewhat favorable” conditions for eclipse viewing west of Austin. Despite the NBM showing 65-80% cloud cover. So maybe that implies just thin cirrus?? That’s what I’m hoping for at this point. I’ll definitely take the under on just about any prediction of convective cloud cover around the totality path. As I recall from 2017, only the hrrr actually accounted for the reduction in insolation? And it made a visible difference in cumulus coverage.

Windshield is all frozen

Low of 33.

Prairie Nursery and other online nurseries have seed mixes that would probably work for that.

Think I had some in Greenbelt just now eta…definitely thunder and lightning

Yeah MBY has to be pushing 3” for the week

Interpolating CoCoRaHS, I’m between 2 and 3”.

TX and the Ohio area seem like a zero sum game. Improvement for one means worse weather for the other. Slower progression and a weaker system of that initial low increases cloud and shower chances for TX it seems.

Apparently GFS has a known bias to overdo cloud cover. I’ve seen that a few places over the last week.

It really does look like the best chance for clear skies. Crazy.

0z ops look workable? GGEM has clear skies for the eclipse verbatim! Looks like a band of showers moves through Sunday at some point but most of Monday is dry right now. 0z GFS actually has the scenario I was rooting for with the energy more consolidated in the storm that moves into the Plains on Sunday and nothing hanging behind. p.s. NBM cloud map from Pivotal is the best I’ve seen it yet!

I’ve got nonrefundable hotel and airline. I’m coming to Texas. The rain will be dark at least.

@MN Transplant I think you’re right for TX. Based on my experience in 2017, the reduced solar will suppress convection for 2-3 hours centered on totality. Cumulus field totally dissipated in South Carolina in 2017 when I was there and reformed after. Still seems like best case for TX is for the storm/trough to be more consolidated and push through with force Sunday and clear behind on Monday. Trend on guidance though is for another shortwave to dump into the trough and get stuck near the 4 corners area.

Had thunder at 515 or so. We’ve really maxed out elevated convection early this year.

Thunder. Did not expect that.

I might be back to rooting for that front/trough to speed up and stay more consolidated.

Ensembles trending wrong way for TX

12z GEFS continues slower western trough trend, although not weaker.

Somewhat positive start to the 12z suite with gfs and GGEM ops both again weakening and slowing the western trough. Keeps TX dry although verbatim there’s still clouds.

^disaster Starting to get pretty worried. trend is for that western trough to be weaker and slower. I was hoping it would actually be faster and clear TX before Monday. But that doesn’t look like it’s happening. So I think I need to continue to root for weaker and slower and hope it doesn’t start pulling moisture into TX until Tuesday or after.

What a washout of a week on tap starting late Sunday. 0z euro says 2-4” through the metro area.

That was dominant

We are doing more than just the eclipse but it would be a bummer

10 days out and I’m starting to get worried for Texas…