WxUSAF

Stealing something from phillywx... Since 2000 there have been 13 measurable snow events in the first 10 days of December at PHL. Let’s assume that’s about the same for us. So you’re looking at a 6.5% chance on any given day. But roughly even money or a bit better on measurable at in the first 10 days when adding that up. Given the advertised pattern, it’s hard for me to see that we’re in a worse than climo position. Hopefully that holds through the next 2 weeks.

Mods clogging up the LR thread with banter smdh

Fun active pattern for sure.

The precise axis of the PNA ridge is key and its a very subtle feature as you can see if you toggle back through the last 3-5 days of GEFS runs. We want as much N-S orientation as possible. Either way today’s GEFS has us BN for the first 7-10 days of December. Hopefully it’s not a dry cold. Regarding the AK trough, interestingly the extended GEFS has it west of AK near Kamchatka or NE Siberia all of December. That’s a pretty good location for us as it should encourage ridging over western Canada. Doubly so if a piece of the TPV breaks off and heads for eastern Canada as it shows right at the end around Xmas.

Airmass ahead of that storm is garbage. For there to be any chance, we need that northern stream low to bring it in ahead of time. I’m skeptical. Hope for wraparound snow showers. Chances go up the farther we get into December.

34 here

Agree with all that’s been said by @tombo82685 and others. The advertised pattern would more likely offer snow chances around Dec 5-10 then before. The Dec 3 period maybe has a snowballs chance if the needle is threaded somewhat like yesterday’s euro. End of the 6z gefs shows eastern Canada cooling down as the poleward PNA finally starts cutting off the Pac and dragging arctic air southward. Either way can’t be too upset about a very Nino-ish pattern going into December that should offer a few chances at least. Let’s keep that look through the next week and then we can get busy.

2017 is the last December where it actually snowed here

I appreciate this has been a polite discussion so far, but let’s end it now because I don’t think anyone’s mind is changing.

What outdoor sports are left at this time? HoCo fields mostly are closed Nov 1 anyway. There’s a few turf fields that stay open longer.

D7-9 EPS evolution isn’t one I’d ever turn my nose up at for a week+ prog. Cold air slides in ahead of the storm, but it’s close. Air mass ahead of that is hot garbage so need that northern stream low to get the cold air in. This was a big shift in the euro and EPS from yesterday which had a GGEM-like solution.

Might have to do a late edit to account for our December 2-3rd MECS.

Yeah, I don’t know if that SST pattern is unprecedented, but it’s pretty strange and unusual at least. I know DT was keying on that to think eastern US snowfall could be AN. Saw the CFS winter MJO forecast on Twitter this morning and it shows the MJO waves staying more in the Indian Ocean, which would be mostly favorable for us (phase 1-2). Maritime continent is the torch zone for us.

Nearly all the CONUS below normal with Canada melting. Swing that eastern trough to an east-west orientation under that block and then bring through that low out west and BOOM!

lol GGEM with freezing temps in the Everglades on the morning of the 3rd.

I haven’t looked at it yet myself, but @tombo82685 says overnight EPS was best yet for early December.

Only 0.04” overnight. Was hoping for more.

Ravens are a mess

Suppression risk?

Dobbins looking strong today.

Euro and GGEM both have major cold outbreaks D8-10. Sub freezing into FL with temps near 0 in the Midwest.

Seasonal air in early December can work, but we have little margin for error. Need a good track, overnight helps, etc. If the PNA couples into the EPO domain, as the 18z gefs showed yesterday, we’d get some cold air moving south. Just takes time to flush the PAC puke out.

Happy hour delivers and the runs not over yet! Anafrontal deals usually work well for us, especially at the beginning of December!

We started some decorating today outside. I’m usually very anti-pre-thanksgiving Christmas decorating but yeah, 2020.

EPS looks quite similar at that time.