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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Yeah, any weaker/more easterly northern wave helps reduce chances of a GGEM scenario.
  2. WxUSAF
    Look at where that big northern shortwave enters the country around 78hrs. Much farther east than 12z. Continuing to 84hrs, part of the difference is speed, but it’s still east. I like that. Would like to see that same thing on the varsity models.
  3. WxUSAF
    I’ve used up all my reactions for today! I expect this to probably continue through Monday?
  4. WxUSAF
    A foot before mixing! I will caveat that with the farther NW track, we don’t get those absurdly deep DGZs like we were looking at a day or two ago. I’d expect more like 10-12:1 in the WAA thump in total.
  5. WxUSAF
    How are there 2 more workdays before this shit starts?? I’m already talking to you jabronis too much.
  6. WxUSAF
    Snow starts in like 80 hours, chief!
  7. WxUSAF
    It’s happening!!! Or is it???
  8. WxUSAF
    EPS-AI is wetter than regular EPS now (or maybe also was before and I didn’t notice). Colder too at 850.
  9. WxUSAF
    Still think 8-14” is probably the most reasonable range for now for the metro corridor.
  10. WxUSAF
    Sure
  11. WxUSAF
    Because the wave is phasing far west of our typical ideal for a coastal storms.
  12. WxUSAF
    Euro has 2 miller B teases after this weekend
  13. WxUSAF
  14. WxUSAF
    Trying to figure EPS on Pivotal. Generally looks really good. Less amped than Op. Comparing to 0z looks a bit drier and flatter. On the mean probably stays all snow for DC and N/W? It’s close.
  15. WxUSAF
    6-18z Sunday is a beatdown
  16. WxUSAF
    8-14” 50% 12-18” 25% BOOM 4-8” 25% BUST
  17. WxUSAF
    Only have plots every 6 hours on Pivotal, but at 18z Sunday (102hrs), all the layers (700, 850, and 925) are at or below freezing for DC-Annapolis and points N/W. 850 is warmest. Goes above freezing at 700 after that time, but only another 0.25” of precip or so. So unless there’s a sneakier warm layer between 700-925mb, that’s a solid 1.1-1.3” of precip before any mixing.
  18. WxUSAF
    Yeah I’m very skeptical of ZR vs sleet in the metro area. Doesn’t matter at this point, but will have to look at NAM soundings Friday if we still have a mixing risk.
  19. WxUSAF
    We’re like 84 hours out and it’s been rock steady. It’s been killing it inside D5, so got to like where we stand
  20. WxUSAF
    GEFS is odd but I’m good with including weak/south members in a mental super ensemble with other guidance, especially when the general trend is more amplified. And tonight’s 0z run is probably the last time I’d care about GEFS anyway for this storm?
  21. WxUSAF
    Drier. Less phasing? Doesn’t look north based on that.
  22. WxUSAF
    8-14” is exactly what I’ve been thinking this morning
  23. WxUSAF
    Did GEFS get posted? Still in a range where it has utility.
  24. WxUSAF
    Kuchie my Ukie baby!
  25. WxUSAF
    I mean yes, I’ll be happy to wake up to 12” of snow on Sunday morning but when I hear it pinging while I sip my coffee winter will be ruined
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