WxUSAF

How I’m going to react to my first snowboard measurement around 6-7am tomorrow: ~1”: oh fuck oh god please no it’s all happening again ~2”: ugh. Hopefully it’s snowing like crazy at this time ~3”: ok, maybe we can make this if DC isn’t already pinging ~4”: yeah baby ~5”+: haha! Fuck you nam!

What i sent to friends just now FWIW Final Columbia area forecast. 5-9” of snow, 1-3” of sleet, light freezing rain or drizzle at the end. Highly recommend shoveling first around 9-10am tomorrow so the second round is manageable. It’s going to compact down into a ~7” deep glacier. For Harford County I said 6-10” snow and 1-2” sleet

I KNEW YOU COULD DO IT

So my recommendation and plan is to take the euro and 3k NAM, weight them with gut feeling and a dash of weenie hopium and call it a day. But YMMV.

Could someone post euro QPF by 12z tomorrow? And 15, 18z?

Come on Euro!! COME ON! BE THE KING!!

@high risk how much can I hug the HREF to toss the nams? 6-8” of snow and little ZR for the metros, so presumably sleet on there. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=frzrfram_024h_mean&sector=conus (Toggle other winter parameters)

I mean, potato/poh-ta-to when talking about bad luck in a Nina. Northern stream just doesn't play nice! Way too much shit going on and something almost always comes in to screw it up one way or another. OH valley has climo AN precipitation and snow during a Nina for a reason. We have BN precip/snow during a Nina for a reason. Anomalous events can happen, but usually they don't. Let's say DC reports 6" combined snow/sleet accumulation tomorrow. That's a solid Nina storm! But yeah, nowhere even close to historic.

My chickenshit answer is to not toss them completely. If the euro and NAM stay apart at 12z, take a 70/30 or maybe 60/40 split favoring the euro?

36 hours out. Euro should be dominant with synoptic evolution! But yeah, sometimes even the champ can get beat.

Not the NAM, but same idea here. Quick glance looks like NAM is in the same camp as RRFS with 850 low and wind.

Rates have gone way up. And for reasons I don’t understand, other suppliers have totally pulled out of the market.

My god the BGE bills after this cold period…

Love seeing the strong euro runs. I haven’t looked yet, but is there really any synoptic difference between the euro and the nams at this point? As of when I was looking yesterday, seems a lot just comes down to how heavy the precip is in the 9-18z period tomorrow. Nams seem uncharacteristically light with that. 24hrs out, euro *should* be kicking ass.

Temporarily unpinning

8F. Coldest of the season (obvs), and wind is still blowing a bit. I’d say we open a new thread after 12z runs today. So 2pm-ish.

temp down to 31 and falling.

You’re doing good, rookie. Keep it up! But do the homework for Monday!

Wondering about my Monday afternoon flight. In isolation, I think BWI will be fully operational by then. But 2-3 days of nationwide flight disruptions are going to take a while to clean out. So dunno.

Wow, even JB is done this this storm. We’re in good (awful) company. So I don’t hide my own post for banter, temp still 37. Major drop hasn’t started yet.

@mattie g update on Fairfax school status for Monday-Friday??

One post about the euro 24-30 hours out. Lol. We’re all so freaking exhausted by this storm. Meet you in the LR thread??

I think 12” is pretty unlikely unless we hold onto good ratios for awhile or something early. For eastern HoCo, I think 6-8” of snow and 1-3” of sleet. So I think double digit accumulations are certainly possible. Max snow DEPTH might never much exceed 6-7” though. Once the pingers start, we’ll compact a lot

I feel like we’re just windshield wipering a bit now. With 12z we thought maybe we were inching in a better direction and now 18 has been mixed. Seems like mostly it will come down to how thumpy things are and when we precisely change to sleet.

Many/most runs today have really heavy snow leading into the flip. Like that 14-17z period probably 1-2”/hr