Jump to content

WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    27,924

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    We’re good at finding the worst of both worlds lol. Our historic specialty. No reason to still not just blend euro/eps/euroAI and call it a day. Wake me up for the Saturday 12z 3k NAM.
  2. WxUSAF
    I’m done with model plots lol. Ready to watch snow fall.
  3. WxUSAF
    Throw in the frigid Tuesday morning temps and I’ll be shocked if school systems open. Would take a major forecast bust
  4. WxUSAF
    Yes, 3:1 ratio is assumed for sleet Yeah, going to be banding and ratio variations that change things.
  5. WxUSAF
    If you’re going off just this 12z suite, maybe a bit? If you’re including some 6z and 0z in your super ensemble, maybe not? Think that’s about spot on what 6z euro had except for maybe southernmost zones? And yeah, 1” of sleet seems quite possible on top of snow.
  6. WxUSAF
    LWX just updated event total snow. 10” DC, 11” Baltimore, 11” CHO, 9” EZF, 14” FDK and HGR.
  7. WxUSAF
    That’s almost exactly what I’ve had in my mind. I told family and neighbors (HoCo and HarCo) 8-14” plus sleet this morning. I guess I’d knock 1-2” off that based on 12z, but no reason to adjust for every model run at this point . Let’s see where we are after tomorrows 12z.
  8. WxUSAF
    Tomer Burg posted elsewhere that it apparently is a know euro problem with ZR vs sleet. I think very little ZR for the metro areas. Maybe FZDZ at the very end.
  9. WxUSAF
    Yeah I think we’re trading a slightly cooler column for a less intense WAA thump with most 12z runs? Think @SnowenOutThereMentioned this? All minor changes relatively.
  10. WxUSAF
    Seems drier overall?
  11. WxUSAF
    Interpolating @stormtrackermaps, maybe snow until 21-22z Sunday? I’d take that for sure.
  12. WxUSAF
    Look at GFS H5 at 150hrs (not exactly crazy fantasy land). Huge shortwave entering California. Very un-Nina like and very classic for big dog coastals.
  13. WxUSAF
    Great write up in the varsity thread @MillvilleWx! I think the cold temps during and after the storm are going to low key be really surprising and impactful. Just zero melting.
  14. WxUSAF
    So many fewer posts than the last couple days. Refreshed after gfs and only like 2 new pages of comments. Everyone’s already exhausted lol
  15. WxUSAF
    Fwiw at 60hrs, snow/sleet line along KY/TN border looks fairly similar between 3k NAM, FV3, and RGEM.
  16. WxUSAF
    At the end of the 3k NAM run, it has the snow/sleet line notably south of 12k NAM in Kentucky. Maybe 50mi? fwiw NAM thermals are definitely worth watching, but like starting with tomorrows 12z or 18z?
  17. WxUSAF
    That seems reasonable. Doesn’t CHO usually CAD better than the metro area?
  18. WxUSAF
    Maybe only slushy accumulations on grass car tops? @paulythegun
  19. WxUSAF
    Freezing rain can definitely happen at those temps, but you need a crazy strong and shallow inversion aloft (I.e., very warm air just above the surface). We’ll see on Saturday what soundings look like. I think our area will mostly mix wirh sleet and maybe go to freezing drizzle at the end (which often happens as storms wind down and dry air starts moving in aloft).
  20. WxUSAF
    The northern shortwave/s aren’t going to suddenly get sampled better at any particular model cycle. It won’t be a big increase in high quality data like the recon of the Baja low. It will just sort of be progressively moving into a more data-dense region.
  21. WxUSAF
    I mean, I get being conservative still 2.5 days out. But like…I almost can’t fathom a scenario where even DC gets less than like 4”?
  22. WxUSAF
    Just based off Will’s maps, looks like more snow before a flip than 0z, but more precip total after a flip? I again will sell on ZR vs sleet…
  23. WxUSAF
    I’m mostly curious what info the normies are getting. Family friend that visited last night was lamenting the rapid Apple weather app snow total changes…
  24. WxUSAF
    WBAL slightly increasing? Low end now 6”, same likely range, high end now “15+”
  25. WxUSAF
    I’ll wait until Saturday morning or so and NAM 3k is in range, but I’m really skeptical of ZR north of like EZF (and maybe even south of that). Really would think snow to sleet to storm over.
×
×
  • Create New...