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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Cuz it’s an absolute dog shit antecedent airmass? RGEM overall has a lot to like. Better H5, closer tuck to the coastal, and a really nice IVT that gets most everyone in the metro area and east. Sorry CHO area…
  2. WxUSAF
    Paint those pretty colors right over HoCo plz. TIA!
  3. WxUSAF
    Justin Berk on Twitter calling the inverted trough a “deformation zone”
  4. WxUSAF
    3k NAM looks like it’s really starting to crank as it ends. Temp drops fast the last couple hours of the run approaching 0z Monday. Shows snow for a lot of the area all day Sunday but with temps of 35-36…that won’t do it. So white rain during the day except for coldest spots and then accumulating after 22-0z.
  5. WxUSAF
    I think this is broadly right but I think after dark it won’t be quite that bad…but yes on the general winners and losers gist
  6. WxUSAF
    My god everyone was driving so slow…
  7. WxUSAF
    GFS was on an island and now it’s not alone but it got joined by the NAM and srefs
  8. WxUSAF
    @GreyHat you’ve now posted comments about current weather in 2 different threads, neither of which is an obs thread
  9. WxUSAF
    Don’t think anyone talked about 6z rgem but it shows this well. Starts as snow for a lot of people and then mixing back and forth all day and then a solid IVT thump after dark. It’s 10:1 totals are 6-8” for some, but even in the coldest spots you’d never have that on the ground all at once.
  10. WxUSAF
    I could see a scenario where colder spots like you get a little accumulation early Sunday, then it melts away, and then more with the IVT.
  11. WxUSAF
    In my casual looking, euro and other guidance clearly made a big step toward gfs at 18z yesterday and then 0z and 6z have been a cumulative tiny step back from it. But we need like 2 more steps to get to the gfs. And I think gfs is inching toward the other guidance. We’re in a better spot than yesterday for sure, but gfs is still on a major island.
  12. WxUSAF
    The IVT snow is after dark so that makes a difference. But I could still see urban areas, especially if they’re on the fringe of the heaviest snow, struggle with accumulation. Core of the IVT, especially away from the UHI probably will have 10-12:1 ratios. Edge of the IVT in urban areas could be like 5:1…
  13. WxUSAF
    Think that’s a pretty good call for right now
  14. WxUSAF
    Seems like the heavy rain band is like 100mi north of where it was progged? Was supposed to be right through DC and it’s in southern PA?
  15. WxUSAF
    Thread would be/will be a disaster with posts lamenting about white rain and warm temps Sunday afternoon.
  16. WxUSAF
  17. WxUSAF
    #HoCoBullseye
  18. WxUSAF
    Hot damn
  19. WxUSAF
    Way too much gfs in that blend clearly
  20. WxUSAF
    Yeah, if you have appropriate expectations I think euro looks good. Norrisville jackpot @mappy!!
  21. WxUSAF
    Baseline forecast at this point probably is like 1-4” for the metro areas. I think it’s good news that most of the IVT precip falls after dark Sunday evening into early Monday, which obviously helps with accumulation. Precise location of the jackpot might be tougher to nail down until like Saturday.
  22. WxUSAF
    It occludes and stacks in place. You can get snow all the way to the low location when that happens. It’s rare obviously. But what isn’t rare about a 3’ snow bomb?
  23. WxUSAF
    Assuming this goes to IVT only, it’s possible someone can pull 6”ish out of this. But a small area. GGEM has a bullseye of that magnitude and looks like Ukie also.
  24. WxUSAF
    Yeah that 0z Monday sounding would be like near whiteout with high ratio parachutes. Crazy stuff.
  25. WxUSAF
    @paulythegun posted it but the gfs soundings are insane.
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