WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Euro has 2 miller B teases after this weekend
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Trying to figure EPS on Pivotal. Generally looks really good. Less amped than Op. Comparing to 0z looks a bit drier and flatter. On the mean probably stays all snow for DC and N/W? It’s close.
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6-18z Sunday is a beatdown
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8-14” 50% 12-18” 25% BOOM 4-8” 25% BUST
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Only have plots every 6 hours on Pivotal, but at 18z Sunday (102hrs), all the layers (700, 850, and 925) are at or below freezing for DC-Annapolis and points N/W. 850 is warmest. Goes above freezing at 700 after that time, but only another 0.25” of precip or so. So unless there’s a sneakier warm layer between 700-925mb, that’s a solid 1.1-1.3” of precip before any mixing.
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Yeah I’m very skeptical of ZR vs sleet in the metro area. Doesn’t matter at this point, but will have to look at NAM soundings Friday if we still have a mixing risk.
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We’re like 84 hours out and it’s been rock steady. It’s been killing it inside D5, so got to like where we stand
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GEFS is odd but I’m good with including weak/south members in a mental super ensemble with other guidance, especially when the general trend is more amplified. And tonight’s 0z run is probably the last time I’d care about GEFS anyway for this storm?
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Drier. Less phasing? Doesn’t look north based on that.
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8-14” is exactly what I’ve been thinking this morning
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Did GEFS get posted? Still in a range where it has utility.
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Kuchie my Ukie baby!
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I mean yes, I’ll be happy to wake up to 12” of snow on Sunday morning but when I hear it pinging while I sip my coffee winter will be ruined
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I think that makes a lot of sense with how deep this arctic airmass is. These NAM runs are going to be showing like 3-4” of sleet I’d bet for the mid-south in the next couple days.
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NAM more phased than6z euro at 72 hours. NAM gonna NAM?
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Would be pretty clutch right now to NOT have stopped a bunch of Alaska upper air launches
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FWIW, we’re in that range where EuroAI has been deadly and I think pretty much our entire sub would sign up for its 6z in a hot minute.
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Just saw a 0z vs 6z Ukie H5 change plot on Twitter. Quite a bit less interaction between N and S shortwaves at 21z Friday. TPV also pressing more to our north. We’re probably going to windshield wiper a bit but with progressively less amplitude for next 24-48 hours?
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Obviously this is a very anomalous event, so maybe the usual rules don’t apply. But I’m keeping some otherwise very durable seasonal and La Niña patterns in my mind: short-term deamplification, suppressing SE ridge, destructive interference from the northern jet, and drier reality than modeled.
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Apple weather helpfully predicting 23-29” storm total
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A trade we’re making with this stronger phasing is more precip for a mix risk. And potentially that’s a trade that could get us more snow in total. Going to see some ridiculous QPF predictions from the mesos by tomorrow. Technically 99% isn’t a lock?
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14” was horrible?? lol
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No. It was a pounding WAA thump (14” for me), then drizzle all day, and then a few more inches of snow in the evening with the ULL.
