WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Ah right, I got it backwards with the elevation scans.
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Euro has been low for DE coastline relative to all the other guidance for awhile?
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This is a day where correlation coefficient rare is our friend. Looks to me that is showing rain almost everywhere but the highest elevation scans (closest to IAD) are snow. So snow is melting as it falls, as we’d expect. But the highest DBZ returns south of DC right now are maybe also mixing with snow at the ground.
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Final call/guess: BWI: 4.9” IAD: 4.2” DCA: 2.3” my yard: 4.6” Norrisville: 14.7”
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36/33. Just a little rain so far.
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Temp down near freezing. Can’t hurt. I feel weirdly zen about this storm, maybe I’m channeling @Bob Chillin my middle age. Let’s see what happens!
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@Maestrobjwa make an obs thread
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lol damn it GFS kuchie hates me
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I’ve been solid on 2-6” for MBY so far. Think I’ve seen enough to bump that to 3-7” but I’m still cautious for us. But I feel good about the floor. Seems most bust potential on the high end? Someone probably will get screwed. DCA is always the best odds.
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Swoon
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Grilling in short sleeves. 52/27. Sunny. Feels like snow?
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Euro and GGEM do big west jumps and get the metro areas some coastal love as gfs shits the bed. That figures.
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Yeah, not Feb 5. Feb 9-10.
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47/28 wooooo snow!
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Nobody mentioned ggem? Notable west jump vs 0z. Very nice for most of our sub.
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I think this is a pretty good map, except there will be a narrow IVT jackpot zone somewhere in our area
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Guess I’ll stick with 2-6” for MBY lol
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Gfs is about identical for Delmarva and points NE. Naso identical for the rest of us lol
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Ha, I’m close enough to that I’m still kinda wary of getting caught between the best IVT death band and the coastal CCB. But it’s gonna snow and I’m excited for that .
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I think that’s solid. But probably the floor? You may be slowly accumulating during the afternoon and early evening while the rest of us stare at 37F white rain or regular rain…
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Then throw elevation effects into it…
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Tough tough forecast. Boom/bust potential is so much higher than normal. The January storm seemed really locked in by the end in comparison. Someone’s going to Jack with the IVT and maybe pull in double digits a short drive away from places with like 2-3”. Still like my 2-6” range but maybe worth inching that up for HoCo/Carroll and points east?
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I think there’s going to be quite a range of ratios. If you’re in the coastal CCB or the core of the IVT, 10-12:1 probably? Maybe better? Outside of that more like 8:1? But maybe as low as 5:1 in warm spots with poor rates?
