WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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My son’s due date was 2/8/2010. Ended up being born on 2/14/2010. The told us to get to the main road and they’d send a humvee. That would have been a ~120 yard walk through hip deep snow with my wife in labor if he had come during either storm.
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Digital red = lots of digital blue
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The 0z (and seems like 6z) euro evolution is what I was honking at last night with the 18z run. Long duration events are super rare for a reason, but I’m getting major PD2 type vibes with overrunning and then a coastal. This thing keeps slowing down though so we’re only gaining like 45 minutes on the start time for every hour that passes lol.
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Really good consensus for this range. Steady as she goes.
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Yes
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The more I look at the 18z euro, the more I REALLY like it. That beast was just getting started. Look at H5 at the end. Long duration high ratio bomb. Anyway, on to 0z.
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I’ve tried twice and nothing
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Dendrite bomb
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15,000ft deep DGZ! Pants tent.
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A good amount more I’d wager? The slower storm start means we’re only about 12 hours closer to game time than we were yesterday. lol
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Is it just my phone or does the like button sort of glow now??
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Maybe timing differences? Seems like things have slowed down a bit today
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100% chance of it being really cold at least!
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Cool graphic of the 12z Euro AI ensembles from Tomer. Basically, our region (focused over @Bob Chill, but covering most of us) has lower dispersion on snow totals relative to central PA up to NYC and BOS and the deep south.
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If/when the GFS shows a MECS, that's when it will really break out because I think that's what the Apple weather app uses predominately?
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He’s a f-ing troll to own the climate libs?
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I don’t have @psuhoffman’s photographic memory for random 6z runs of failed storms, but my memory for late February last year was we had this amazing signal but guidance was never keying in on the same storm or shortwave? It was more of a several day period that looked good (and failed). So this looks quite different with a clear shortwave and storm development scenario.
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Debbie Downer wants to remind everyone that there are reasons we have had like 1 KU in a La Nina in the history of the Mid-Atlantic region since the last glacial maximum
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@mappy our Norrisville dude has reported a 2-day total of 7.6"! Guy right across the border in Stewartstown has 4.7".
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Yeah, suppression is by far the most likely fail scenario, especially if you sort of lump that in with "basically no storm because the shortwave doesn't really eject".
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My wife left to go to work this morning and she said she had to brake in our neighborhood for the recycling truck and she started skidding.
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I mean, I think it's all linked? The shortwave coming out will pump heights out ahead of it, but the strength of the trop PV (and associated HP at the surface) is trying to squash it. If you look at 12z Friday as a point in time, yes, the GFS has the upper low farther west off the California coast, but Euro/EuroAI aren't *that* much farther east. But the GFS has the height field over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS much lower.
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The one caveat, which is hard to evaluate, is whether the high pressure (and associated upper level configuration) will be so anomalous, that the AI will, by its nature, not predict it. The AI models are trained on some amount of reanalysis, and so they can't/won't predict extreme or record-breaking events well. Will this setup be record-breaking? Hard to say. But that's something to keep in mind when evaluating the AI models vs the physics-based models.
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After every exciting run, people should just mutter this to themselves: “It’s La Niña and I live near DC. It’s La Niña and I live near DC.”
