WxUSAF

CPC analogs for 12/8 almost identical to those 3 years ago for 12/8/17. That was our last notable December snowfall with 2-5” across the region.

I tend to agree. I’m not sure how much of the responsibility is the whole team or just this one coach, but either way they had the biggest outbreak in the NFL so far.

Lamar Jackson tested positive for covid 2020 strikes again

It’s really fun. We enjoyed it.

Canadian is a touch to slow so the marginal airmass we have after the cutter warms a bit. Need it a little faster. Either way, lots of chances probably and a complex pattern with a bunch of strong short waves.

Could be the warmest day until our annual record warm Xmas eve

Well I made a vaguely political joke on the in-law family text thread and apparently I've already ruined thanksgiving! Where's the wine?

It's a really nice look. I don't know about the EPS at Day 15, but the GEPS and GEFS have an absolutely gorgeous pattern. Somehow the GEFS has normal/AN surface temps with that setup...which, no chance in hell. GEPS (which does seem to have some cold bias, I guess from being Canadian) has us BN or MBN which fits with that 500mb pattern.

0.11" here. Enough for a few puddles. 59F. Turkey's mostly ready to roast. Working on the sweet potatoes.

I looked through the 3 globals on TT and saw the gfs was really close (just seems to have a warm boundary layer verbatim but 850s below freezing), ggem was wound up and west, and then saw the euro had a good track and looked cold at 850 also. So switched to pivotal and saw the precip. It’s not a huge storm but would be a nice start to winter. For a more bird-in-hand scenario, probably worth keeping an eye on flurries or snow showers behind the big low next Tuesday or Wednesday. If a piece of energy can rotate around, maybe we could get on the board...

1-3” on the euro for Dec 5 and nobody reports it??

Ravens covid situation is a mess. They’ve disciplined an unnamed staff member who sounds like the Typhoid Mary of the group. Per Twitter, he did not report symptoms and didn’t wear a mask at the facility. Game moved to Sunday, but a bunch of key players won’t be playing because of this. Many more cases in the coaching and support staff.

Verbatim probably not outside the highlands. But just like a 12-24 hr delay probably is cash money for I-95.

Ooohh...12z ggem is so close to the perfect scenario. Just brings the second storm a bit too soon so it’s a cold rain, but the track is near perfect.

Overnight euro and new parallel gfs were pretty similar. Paste bomb for mountains and far western burbs. So far I don’t like the 12z gfs at all. Although that 500mb low pass for the Dec 1 storm looks fairly amazing in isolation.

Nov 30 storm cuts west, Dec 4-5 storm is slow enough that it cuts too. Crap airmass after for a few days then we place all the hopes on threading the needle for one more storm before the PAC jet returns on Dec 10.

The advertised pattern clearly supports coastal storms or storms passing south of us in general. Doesn’t mean every storm will do that, but pattern is supportive of that. Question is going to be whether the air mass ahead of any individual storm is conducive to snow. You can see this with the Dec 4-5 window. We need the Nov 30/Dec 1 storm to give us a fresh cold air mass and then have the next storm move into it at the right time before it rots. We don’t need a *ton* of help for a suitable airmass in early December, but we need some. A climo air mass doesn’t cut it usually.

^thanks @frd. Maybe that’s the sort of linkage that could keep us chilly if the MJO gets to phase 6 in ~15 days.

Ha. We’ve got a nice pattern the first 10-14 days of December and already have a window or two picked out. That’s really good for December! Especially in a mod/strong Nina!

Hmm interesting. That seems in conflict with the MJO moving into the torch phases (4-6) over and east of the maritime continent. I wonder if mid- December will trend warmer on the progs. But MJO doesn’t always rule the roost, so maybe there are conflicting signals, but I don’t see what would keep us chilly?

lol, I’ve experienced more HECSs in my life than flash freezes.

Don’t know about storm chances or details, but EPS pattern even better than GEFS the second week of December. Big poleward PNA up into AK and the Yukon. And that configuration starts to bang on the SPV some

Dec 4-5 is the first period to keep an eye on. GFS and GGEM are weak and sheared today while euro is wrapped up inland. Need the Nov 30/Dec 1 storm to give us a good air mass.

2002-03 worked out well

It does. GEFS seems to be can-kicking on that orientation a bit, but also making the situation before that less hostile overall. I’d eagerly sign up to take my chances with that pattern anytime DJF.