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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    I’ll take my chances with that
  2. WxUSAF
    It really loves this narrow death band. Better for the coast and areas to our northeast.
  3. WxUSAF
    I like rgem at 36hrs. Better surface and H5.
  4. WxUSAF
    3k has been too dry lately and we know 12k has a wet bias
  5. WxUSAF
    51/49 excited for my snowstorm
  6. WxUSAF
    That looks pretty reasonable to me although maybe questionable for Mt Holly’s area
  7. WxUSAF
    Yes, not integrated vapor transport
  8. WxUSAF
    I’m up for a new thread. @Maestrobjwa?
  9. WxUSAF
    We don’t speak of March 2013 in Maryland
  10. WxUSAF
    Yeah but it’s still improved over 0z. Other guidance is all very good for the beaches.
  11. WxUSAF
    I think something like 2-6” is a reasonable call for the metro area right now. More for the beaches. Potentially a screw zone somewhere in between?
  12. WxUSAF
    Jan 2011 storm had that pounding ULL snow after dark with similar surface temps. Think it was like 7-8:1 ratios?
  13. WxUSAF
    @psuhoffman and RehobOth jackpots. I’d shave like 25-50% off 10:1 depending on location. Still an improved run.
  14. WxUSAF
    Yeah AI is stronger and a bit west with the coastal. Surface temps are what they are…I’d rely on Op euro and 3k NAM most for those
  15. WxUSAF
    I think you’ll do very well, but I think highest totals are north of our sub
  16. WxUSAF
    Coastal NJ, LI, up to eastern Mass gonna get wrecked
  17. WxUSAF
    Think this is the first time I’ve looked at the Ukie for this. And yes it made a big step to the GFS and yes it still looks like trash for anyone not standing on the beach lol
  18. WxUSAF
    So far there’s seems to be a bit of meeting in the middle with the 12z suite. But other guidance is taking more steps toward the Op GFS than the other way around. My guess still is the metro area will, in the end, be too far west for the coastal CCB snows. But this might be our La Niña Rehobeth blizzard…
  19. WxUSAF
    AI GFS is jumping into the Op GFS camp
  20. WxUSAF
    Cuz it’s an absolute dog shit antecedent airmass? RGEM overall has a lot to like. Better H5, closer tuck to the coastal, and a really nice IVT that gets most everyone in the metro area and east. Sorry CHO area…
  21. WxUSAF
    Paint those pretty colors right over HoCo plz. TIA!
  22. WxUSAF
    Justin Berk on Twitter calling the inverted trough a “deformation zone”
  23. WxUSAF
    3k NAM looks like it’s really starting to crank as it ends. Temp drops fast the last couple hours of the run approaching 0z Monday. Shows snow for a lot of the area all day Sunday but with temps of 35-36…that won’t do it. So white rain during the day except for coldest spots and then accumulating after 22-0z.
  24. WxUSAF
    I think this is broadly right but I think after dark it won’t be quite that bad…but yes on the general winners and losers gist
  25. WxUSAF
    My god everyone was driving so slow…
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