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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. This is the part of the winter storm cycle where we all say we never REALLY thought we were getting 1-2’ and it will be nice just to see the grass turn white.
  2. Would still be a nice soaking rain for most. It’s the best of the options at this point outside the NAM.
  3. Euro is basically some light rain tomorrow afternoon and evening and that’s the whole deal
  4. Well 12z meso runs are starting off positively FWIW (very little)
  5. Forecast is always going to be very razor-edge when you’re counting on a phase happening right on top of us essentially. The “locked in” coastal storms phase much farther southwest.
  6. 41 for me. No 30s. Boooo
  7. There’s sort of two parts to this. The first is tomorrows afternoon into early Sunday with a deformation axis between the developing coastal and the northern stream shortwave. That seems fairly uniform on guidance? Then the second part is rain from the coastal. That still is uncertain and overnight runs definitely lowered the odds of the big 1”+ amounts.
  8. @mappytown mesonet already down to 39! Going to make a run at first freeze.
  9. 18z gfs track is west of 12z slightly but drier overall. Basically a hold.
  10. Lots of 30s at least. Hope MBY makes it
  11. It’s a tough forecast for your area still. Most confident parts are cloudy, cool, and breezy. Rain is possible anytime between Saturday afternoon (showers at most) to Monday (potentially steady moderate rain). Rain amounts are still a hard call for areas west of the Bay and DC especially.
  12. Euro moved back to what it had been doing, which is it retrogrades it back toward us and gives us a very rainy Monday. Widespread 1". Still a pretty different solution than GFS/GGEM/Icon, and it all comes down to where the northern stream shortwave phases in.
  13. Ukie takes it over toward Buffalo and it looks like the sloppy phase Euro that skips us mostly except for light showers Saturday.
  14. TT and Pivotal haven’t updated Canadian model output in days. But other places apparently have it. What gives?
  15. Someone can do a thread if people want that
  16. Weirdly (?) euro AI keeps drifting east even as the traditional guidance is starting to line up with the details.
  17. If I was rich I’d totally get a mesonet station installed on my palatial estate. Somewhere between the pool and the botanical garden.
  18. Super cool. Thanks to @Eskimo Joeand @wxmeddler for inviting me! Nice consolation prize for being furloughed.
  19. Ooohhh jackpot! Up over 0.25”!
  20. What happened with GGEM? Planned outage?
  21. Going to be *maybe* 0.2”
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