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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Position of the 50/50 and shortwave spacing are the devily details that won't get sorted out for awhile. And likely what happens with Monday plays a key role in how it sets up for late next week. I remain encouraged that even if late next week doesn't work out, it looks like chances continue beyond. Op Euro buried one of the shortwaves that could give us a storm on the 10-11th, and then brought it up near the end of the run for a weak snow event. Lots of moving parts, but our chances remain well above normal.
  2. WxUSAF
    Surface based instability after dark on NYE. What a world.
  3. WxUSAF
    Max was over DC at 0z and over Fredericksburg now? That’s essentially an identical solution for D6. Caveat that I haven’t looked at anything besides @NorthArlington101’s snowmap.
  4. WxUSAF
    I don’t but google translate does
  5. WxUSAF
    For the period around the 10-11th, you can cycle through the 500mb vorticity panels of the last several runs and see what we need quite clearly. When our 50/50 low is sitting over Vermont, there’s no storm.
  6. WxUSAF
    Anecdotally, and probably me only remembering the hits, but I feel like often guidance strips all the precip off these weak waves in the mountains in the mid range. Then in the short range you see that they don’t totally Peter out.
  7. WxUSAF
    Gosh I wish this wasn’t still 6 days away. Already feels like we’ve been watching this period for 10 days
  8. WxUSAF
    Anyone know about the degree of experimentality in the euro AI? Asking for a friend. TIA!
  9. WxUSAF
    Setting up for the typical “they are always wrong”
  10. WxUSAF
    As always, the warm anomalies are just of much larger magnitude than the cold. Even though by raw count there were 17 BN days to 14 AN.
  11. WxUSAF
    20F above normal on Sunday and 15F yesterday at BWI. Only -0.3F below normal on the month with today pending.
  12. WxUSAF
    I've been too busy (and sick) to look at any runs too closely, but in general, I really like that regardless of what happens next week (first or second chance), it doesn't look like our window is closing anytime soon.
  13. WxUSAF
    Bonjour les amis. Gloire aux prévisions météorologiques européennes !
  14. WxUSAF
    When we have a pattern with plentiful cold air, I’m more willing then usual to shotgun shortwaves at us and see what lands.
  15. WxUSAF
    Verbatim, HH GFS has MBY below freezing from Friday evening through the end of the run. 10 days plus. I’ll take the under, but could be an impressive cold stretch.
  16. WxUSAF
    Yup. Need a bit more breathing room but if you flip through the last 5-8 GFS runs, you can see very clearly that the Jan 6th Storm sets the boundary (train tracks per @Bob Chill) for the 8th. That’s why this run is closer to a 2-fer than 12z. But I’m good with 6-8” with some frigid cold.
  17. WxUSAF
    Tough but fair
  18. WxUSAF
    We may be HECS hunting, but we still are #1 at effortless torches
  19. WxUSAF
    So you’re saying we need to thread the needle where we get plowable snow on the 6th and the HECS 3 days later?
  20. WxUSAF
  21. WxUSAF
    2016 mixed for me. Feb 2014 I had 18” but a good amount of slop.
  22. WxUSAF
    The big dogs (almost) always mix
  23. WxUSAF
    Yes I know it's a D11 sounding, but praise JesusAllahBuddah this is glorious
  24. WxUSAF
    Looks like you're getting lost on threads:
  25. WxUSAF
    That’s the snowiest in several years I believe. Doubly impressive when it’s all after about D6-7. Mean for the 8-10th window is almost 3” alone. @Weather Will’s 1” odds will show 80-90%+.
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