WxUSAF

As much as it feels the opposite, we still get below freezing much more than we get above 90.

This is what I’m watching now basically. Our pattern change is within range and how next weeks event brings in colder air and establishes an eastern trough is key to whatever comes after. GFS, at least last nights euro, and now GGEM as well phase in a piece of the TPV and drop it almost due south late next week. Then more shortwaves over central Canada broaden it out. Some earlier runs phased in colder air earlier. It’s too early to say what differences in this may ultimately impact future snow chances because we don’t have a discreet threat afterward (yet). But what I don’t want to see is next week turn into a cutoff low that doesn’t drag in cold air and start an eastern trough. That’s the cankick scenario.

I meant exceeding everything since is a very low bar. Jan 22 was very good.

Yes, but that’s a low bar.

6z gfs has coastals in both those periods. Just skims @CAPE on the 2nd, then suppressed for RIC on the 6th.

Webb would gaslight us and say it’s good because it’s laying down snow in the upper Midwest

BAMWx and Webb already see the backside of the good pattern before it gets here. If it gets here…

Low of 22. I’ve had a number of low 20s this season so far, but haven’t hit the teens yet.

I am too. Next week looks super messy, but there’s still some paths to some frozen with that. But beyond that is when our options open up dramatically. I think by this weekend we’ll at least have an idea of a time window for a discreet threat.

Oh LAWD she comin’!

From @griteater

Just loop the H5 plot of the gfs and there are soooo many shortwaves. Northern and southern stream. Going to get lots of solutions, but does seem like we’re in the game. As I said before though, we need more energy in a storm around the 26th to bring in cooler air earlier. Otherwise we have to wait until after the 28/29th for a workable airmass.

If you measured everything, I assume you’d be around 5” for the year to date?

My qualitative intuition for late next week is that we need the energy to split and not be consolidated. We need a stronger cutter on the 26/27th to pull in at least less mild air and then a weaker low passing to our south on the 28-30th. Right now it’s all a jumbled mess on guidance with a bunch of shortwaves all over as previous posts have shown.

Zero impact

It’s true that we don’t often cash in at the beginning of a good pattern. And I still think anything before 2024 is probably a mixed event or a light event outside the far N/W burbs and mountains. That’s fine for me! But we are (still for now) not charlotte NC or something. We don’t need cross polar flow, some epic -NAO, or Michigan to be buried in snow to have a chance. We don’t even need below normal temps!

That’s a good change, but a stronger storm in the plains is not. Need a weak slider for a lot of us to get a majority frozen event at that time.

I’m fully serious when I say I expect that fairly soon he will be saying that the MJO is going to move through 8-1-2 TOO FAST, despite him confidently asserting before that it would get stuck in 5-6-7.

Need to see individuals as temps are still warmish, but I’d take my chances here.

Fun gfs run. Nice to start seeing fantasy snow.

D10-15 pattern looks good but we can see the back edge already

Mitchell is/was so explosive. Tough to lose him for the season. If that ravens can beat the dolphins and Steelers, they should be the #1 seed.

It’s 384hr so obviously not saying that’s going to happen precisely, but that scenario IS exactly what that sort of longwave pattern can produce. That’s the cold area wide 3-6/4-8” type deal.

Dang I hope we get a radar look like this again this winter with a temp about 30F colder