WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Steve Milloy ain’t happening
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I also prefer colder rain
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My wag is that we get a nice period from post-Xmas to Jan 10-14 or so. Then a reset for a week or two, then hopefully a real heater from late Jan to mid February. We’ll see.
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Visibility under 1/4mi
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@Ralph Wiggum…that longwave pattern argues for weaker progressive waves. Everything is positively tilted with an eastward lean. That’s good for us, there’s no deep cold air yet so we need something that doesn’t wrap in a bunch of warm air. Just need a weak wave sliding to our south and hopefully there’s a band of snow on the north side.
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42 with fog. This is the 09-10 winter of fog.
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Dang…that’s really nice. 6z gfs with snow to rain in that period.
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I think we’re gonna get a 2-3 week heater at some point, especially if we get SSW-induced blocking in late January or early February. This period starting after Xmas into the first week or two of January is different, but still looks quite promising if we believe the weeklies for now. Strange though, I’d heard it on good authority the Uber pac jet was going to last until early January.
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Snowcover in southwest Wyoming as viewed out my plane window. Alert Webber that winter is uncanceled!
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Dunno…worried about lack of snowcover in New Mexico. Southwesterly flow is going to be dangerously warm. Hopefully we can get a small event in early February.
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Need more snow over Nevada and Utah or our winter is doomed
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Odd how that works
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I legit lol’d
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Debs in disarray
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Webb’s got a good short thread for all you today. Saying it might be best to root for a deep western trough and build up snowcover. Then hopefully we can sneak something in by early February before the inevitable March torch. Fingers crossed!
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So for argument’s sake, let’s say the ensembles are currently correct and we get a mean trough over us around Xmas or so. How far off is that from expectations 10 days ago? A couple days? Maybe 5 at most? Rough outcome for the never ending torch crowd.
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Yes and yes ideally
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A megalopolis HECS screams El Niño.
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I’ll be sure to post Webb’s 9 tweet thread about it and the never ending torch when he gets it posted
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If we pull another rabbit out of the hat somehow, I’m doing to double my snowfall prediction for the year because it’s clearly one of THOSE winters.
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12z GEPS is the best looking ensemble mean I’ve seen in days fwiw
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12z euro similar with Atlantic side wave breaking and a big high nosing in Xmas weekend. Guess we’ll see if all this can last even 6-12 hours, but I guess it’s something. Could at least prevent shorts for Santa??
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@40/70 Benchmark has mentioned a colder 2015-16 several times as well. I think we’d be pretty happy if that’s what we got in the end.
