WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Loudon and Mt. PSU bullseye at happy hour
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Whole winter depends on it, but yeah, no pressure.
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12z euro digs the shortwave quite a bit more than 0z. 0z gave us a little snow/mix with the low itself, but kept it all very progressive. 12z is really pretty close to the GFS. GFS just manages to get a little more neutral tilt. Looks like Ukie is maybe focusing on a different shortwave so it’s slower with the progression?
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We want that ridge standing straight N-S and not rolling over quickly. That’s the danger to watch for. It’s forecast for December 6th
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Supposed to be flying back to DC in the middle of that epic winter-saving early season SECS. Time to rebook?
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Icon is a slightly weaker version of the GFS. GGEM trough stays too progressive and positively tilted, maybe show showers for some.
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This is all connected of course. Models always bias MJO waves to dissipate too quickly. Moving through 7-8-1-2 from mid-December to early January with the cold air on our side of the globe and a very weak strat PV is an enticing combination. And throw in a Nino STJ.
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Low of 27. After yesterday, BWI is exactly “normal” on the month for temps and IAD, DCA and RIC are very slightly below normal (-0.1 - -0.3F). Today should end up slightly below normal temps as well.
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High of 40 and low of 23 at BWI today. Only 6 days in November 2022-March 2023 were as cold or colder by mean daily temperature.
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We don’t HAVE to have below normal temps to get snow. Just trickier without it.
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“usually” what happens is that all those features (NPac trough and western ridge) are west of those positions leading into the storm and then they roll east with the big storm.
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There’s definitely some good juju percolating for second half of December and beyond. Hopefully some of our more sensitive subforum posters can make it!
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How do I just get the Cat Fancy subscription?
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Depending on your expectations for @stormtrackers 12z promise, Euro and GFS certainly keep us in the game for “something” next week.
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Yeah, but at the time I couldn’t find any literature measuring that. Maybe it’s been done since.
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I don’t know if there’s any literature about it, but I started dabbling with a project in grad school that would have shown that UHI is minimized during cold air advection as opposed to basic radiational cooling. Never got very far with it, but I think last night is a good demonstration of that idea.
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Plus Decembers in Ninos are usually mild and the least snowy month? Last December we had a pretty canonical Niña cold pattern the second half of that month and we got boned in the snow department.
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Plus the ensembles seem to keep adjusting to more -AO which I also quite enjoy! People are gonna gripe going forward even if we can pull a small event out of our hats next week, but I still think we will have chances for snow and cold this month. This does not look like December 2015 at all.
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I like seeing a Scandinavian ridge showing up on guidance toward mid-month. That should slowly retrograde and help reinforce a -NAO.
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Low of 22
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A lot to like here, just don’t look at surface temps.
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“faint to modest indications” is a good motto for our subforum
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Congrats @GATECH!! A very impressive performance with a single day departure for BWI, IAD, and RIC and only 3 days for DCA. @BristowWx was second place with a total departure of 10 days and @southmdwatcher was third with a departure of 13 days.
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Our long nightmare is over
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If BWI has an average temp of 32 tomorrow (high of 40 low of 24), there were only a handful of colder days in the Nov 22-March 23 cold season.
