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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    FWIW (not much), yesterdays GEFS extended has similarities around Xmas.
  2. WxUSAF
    Webb responded to his tweet with something basically like “yup, called that December torch!” I wanna be like “Bra, did you even click the link??”
  3. WxUSAF
    Pattern shown around Xmas at Roundy’s link would get a lot of fans
  4. WxUSAF
    All of these type of stats are very small sample size. I think that’s a meaningless quirk.
  5. WxUSAF
    Nino!!
  6. WxUSAF
    Good pull @aldie 22. My main takeaway there is a fairly obvious one: if we want until January for the first snowfall, it’s probably going to be a BN snowfall winter.
  7. WxUSAF
    Stillers again gonna fall backassward into a win with like 150 yards of total offense. Making me nuts
  8. WxUSAF
    Also some mixed precipitation D9. Euro and GGEM have stopped cankicking cold air and a potentially favorable pattern for now. They both bring in some cold air next Sunday and maintain if after. GFS still is mostly a hot mess of inconsistency.
  9. WxUSAF
    It’s November 19. You probably should throw the towel.
  10. WxUSAF
    There’s plenty of confounding factors this year though that will create enough doubt if it comes to pass. Hunga Tonga, PDO, weird Nino behavior, etc. Plus, as mentioned, we have strong Nino shutouts in the past. So while maybe some of us will think this is another brick in the inevitable wall, others will just shrug.
  11. WxUSAF
    97-98 had like 3 would-be HECS with temps near 40. Only the highest elevations in the Apps got any snow at all from them I think.
  12. WxUSAF
    Oh I feel pretty sure this winter is going to be confusing enough to give both arguments ammunition. Like maybe we will get JUST above normal snow but barely miss on a few chances to have a blockbuster winter.
  13. WxUSAF
    The continued can-kicking of when the real cold air arrives is annoying…DCA might not get a freeze until December starts.
  14. WxUSAF
  15. WxUSAF
    Actually December 1st is 12 days away…
  16. WxUSAF
    Picking the wrong side in The War on Thanksgiving smdh
  17. WxUSAF
    Happy hour delivers love. And has lost a lot of the craziness it’s been showing the last 48 hours. Much more consistent with other guidance now.
  18. WxUSAF
    Yeah euro and GGEM have been showing some decent looking setups the week after thanksgiving for a day or two. Just hard to count it for much given how much the Tuesday-Saturday period is still in flux.
  19. WxUSAF
    This will not happen
  20. WxUSAF
  21. WxUSAF
    Me looking at D10 Euro…
  22. WxUSAF
    Sorry…if we don’t go from drought to flood status with feet of rain and highs in the 20s for thanksgiving then we might as well pack it up! And Ji and Chuck have already cancelled next winter. So see you in late 25??
  23. WxUSAF
    Notably the GEFS has not had these crazy swings like that last 2 runs of the GFS, although it certainly has tended to weaken the big Tuesday/Wednesday low pressure.
  24. WxUSAF
    GFS and GGEM both sort of split the big rainstorm into 2 systems and the cold air follows the second
  25. WxUSAF
    6z gfs/GEFS got some morning indigestion or something. Just slightly different for the holiday weekend.
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